Drop listing & analysis


Alyx_Smith

 

Posted

My time is too valuable to me to waste it PLing other people for Inf, so I don't really need to worry about how much I would charge. That was more a mental exercise. But I am honestly interested in determining a reasonable number, just for grins. So I can laugh every time I head through PI on Freedom and hear the broadcasts of lowbies willing to pay for PLs. Common sense indicates that bringing a SK into a farm mission will cut the total Inf of an otherwise solo farmer roughly in half, as the SK will get half of the drops. Common sense may be wrong due to bugs, but I'll keep that assumption for now. And if my average Inf earning is based on 17 runs with a fairly large mix of both good salvage and recipes, I'd say that's a pretty good basis for comparison.

If anyone could shed some light on the statistics involved in small sample sizes, that would be appreciated. I only got 7 purples, but that's certainly more statistically significant than if I had only gotten 1 or 2. I got a mix of good and bad ones, so I don't think that aspect is skewed in any way. But that's why I asked if anyone knew the average value of a purple on my OP, as I'd rather use the average of all purples rather than the average of the small sample that dropped for me. I'm guessing that all purples drop with the same chance. And I'm guessing there are people in this forum who track the value of all purples.

How many more purples do I need to find to give my final average some sort of statistical significance? I'm looking for something like the following (completely made up): After 20 purple drops, it is 70% likely that the real drop rate is within 10% of the observed drop rate.

I seem to recall that Lts drop Salvage twice as often as Minions, and bosses are either 3 or 4 times as much as Minions. If that's the case, then it puts the average number of Minion equivalents at around 887. That's 6 bosses at 4 minions each, 198 Lts at 2 minions each, and 467 real minions. Maybe that applies to all drops. As a result, it looks like Enhancements drop about 0.8% of the time per minion, Salvage about 6.7% of the time, and recipes about 2.4% of the time. Has anyone else come up with percentages like those?

And what about the relative distribution of Common/Uncommon/Rare items? It looks like it may be somewhere around 20/4/1 or so.

Am I even counting right? I count Temp Power recipes as Rare Pool A recipes, but are they? Are costumes really a separate pool? Are purples also a separate pool, or just a subpool of Pool A? What about Respec Recipes? We could find out if someone got 2 recipes from a single mob, but that would be a pretty rare event. Does it even matter?

I'm asking because I think the Devs have on very rare occasion mentioned some of these numbers, and other people have likely charted drop rates. The more information I can put together, the closer I can get to figuring out the average worth of defeating a mob. Then I can weigh that against Mission Architect rewards. People with the brains to read this forum will them be able to make an intelligent decision as to what sort of content they should run to maximize their rewards, in the same way that they consult Dr. Robert's charts to see what recipe, TF, or Trial roll provides the highest Merit/Inf value.


Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304

 

Posted

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Additionally, I may - if I get to the point you're at where I can just hop along and pwn - up my toon count to eight and not bother killing the bosses. Just run, seeds / roots / DL / SD, ditch mobs, repeat.

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That does sound like a much safer way to farm drops. You can get the cycle time of Seeds down to about 16 seconds with silly recharge, so it would be faster as well. Spawn the mission for 8 so you get 2 bosses per spawn. Hit mobs with Seeds and a couple AoEs (including Roots to keep everyone in place and PSW so you still do a significant amount of damage to them), then run to the next spawn. The bosses will toss AoEs and fry the rest of the spawn for you, and you collect the drops.

NERF PLANT DOMS!!! THEY'RE OVERPOWERED!!!


Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304

 

Posted

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Well, they did nerf accuracy during the I13 open beta - anyone else remember that?

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Only against weenie foes.

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...and team pvp spiking...


4


I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.

 

Posted

Costumes are absolutely a separate pool. I have gotten both an IO recipie and a costume recipie from the same kill.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

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...and team pvp spiking...

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Actually that didn't make it live, did it? People were exploiting the hell out of it.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

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...and team pvp spiking...

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Actually that didn't make it live, did it? People were exploiting the hell out of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It didn't afaik, but the comment I replied to was in reference to I13 beta, and there was plenty
of noise about it there...


Regards,
4


I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.

 

Posted

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Costumes are absolutely a separate pool. I have gotten both an IO recipie and a costume recipie from the same kill.

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Pool E - minions only. Lieutenants, Bosses, EBs and AVs will not.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

Time for some more numbers. I did another 10 runs. Cumulative numbers are at the bottom.

<font class="small">Code:[/color]<hr /><pre> Defeat Enh. Salv. Common Extra Total
Run Mobs Inf Enh Inf Salvage Inf IOs Inf Inf Inf
3/15#1 673 4,235 12 162 62/10/3 5,925 23/2/1 2,360 20,721 33,403
3/15#2 675 4,310 8 112 41/10/0 20 20/2/1** 1,753 105,521 111,716
3/16#1 680 4,260 10 140 45/9/3 4,170 26/1/0* 2,426 92,907 103,903
3/16#2 651 4,134 3 40 46/12/2 53 19/8/1 1,785 22,969 28,981
3/17#1 664 4,332 8 106 50/15/3 1,233 13/7/1 1,296 13,562 20,529
3/17#2 660 4,320 3 39 38/14/2 3,424 17/4/2 1,543 38,551 47,877
3/17#3 677 4,431 8 100 41/14/2 1,569 18/4/0 1,807 1,534 9,441
3/18#1 673 4,296 5 63 35/16/1 1,225 13/8/2* 1,163 60,479 67,226
3/18#2 675 4,312 7 94 47/11/1 73 27/5/0* 2,567 6,201 13,247
3/18#3 689 4,355 4 57 53/13/1 32 17/4/0* 1,699 29,444 35,587

1,264/ 489/
Cumulative (27 runs) 306/ 100/
Tot 18,116 116229 189 2,486 57 55,052 21 47,721 776,063 995,688
Avg 671 4,305 7 92 47/11/2 2,039 18/4/1 1,767 28,743 36,877

Total Inf from Purples: 515,776
Total Inf from all other sources: 479,912

</pre><hr />

What does this say? Mobs, Salvage, and Enhancements were pretty consistent. I got a few more recipes, just enough to bump the average. The Purple Recipe drop rate increased to 1 per 1394 mobs. The actual rate is probably between 1000 and 2000 mobs, but it would take someone with statistics knowledge to say anything definite. And they'd probably just laugh at my small sample size and walk away. The income from purples still beats the income from everything else combined.


Recipes, (C)=Costume, (R)=Rare, (P)=Purple

Run 3/16#1

(C) Costume Piece: Piston Boots (10k)
Multi-Strike: Dam/End (1,007k profit)
Multi-Strike: Dam/Rech (1,507k profit)
(R) Numina: End/Heal (18,197k profit)

Run 3/16#2

(P) Armageddon: Dam (78M profit)
Detonation: Dam/Acc/End (1,507k profit)
(R) Devastation: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (10,507k profit)
(P) Grav Anchor: Immob/End (15M profit)
Kinetic Crash: KB/Dam (507k profit)

Run 3/16 #1
(P) Armageddon: Proc (92.4M profit)
Multi-Strike: Dam/End/Rech (507k profit)

Run 3/16 #2
2*Blood Mandate: Accuracy (2*507k profit)
Efficacy Adapter: Rech/Acc (3,507k profit)
Essence of Curare: Acc/End (507k profit)
Extreme Measures: Dam/Int/Rech (507k Inf)
(R) Gaussian's: To Hit Buff/Rech (13,907k profit)
Nightmare: Acc/Fear (vendor 10k)
Red Fortune: End (3,507k profit)
Rope-a-dope: Acc/End (vendor 10k)

Run 3/17 #1
Detonation: Dam/Range (507k profit)
Lethargic Repose: Acc/Sleep/Rech (vendor 10k)
(R) Mako's Bite: Acc/Dam (8,507k profit)
Mocking Beratement: Taunt (1,007k profit)
Multi-Strike: Acc/End (2,007k profit)
Nightmare: End/Fear (vendor 10k)
Soaring: Fly (1,007k profit)
Tempered Readiness: Dam/Slow (507k profit)

Run 3/17 #2

Adjusted Targeting: To Hit (4,507k profit)
(R) Aegis: End/Res (12,507k profit)
Air-Burst: Dam/Range (vendor 10k)
Jaunt: Range/End (vendor 10k)
(R) Obliteration: Dam (21,507k profit)
Perplex: Acc/End (vendor 10k)

Run 3/17 #3
Dampened Spirits: Rech/End (507k profit)
Enfeebled Operation: Acc/Immob (1,007k profit)
Exploit Weakness: Dam/Range (vendor 10k)
Soaring: Fly/End (vendor 10k)

Run 3/18 #1
(P) Absolute Amazement: Stun (23M profit)
Adjusted Targeting: To Hit/End (3,507k profit)
Blood Mandate: Damage (507k profit)
Essence of Curare: Acc/Hold/Rech (vendor 10k)
(R) Numina: Heal (19,407k profit)
Red Fortune: Def/End (6,507k profit)
Soaring: Fly/End (vendor 10k)
(R) Sovereign Right: Acc/Dam (vendor 10k)
Tempered Readiness: Dam/Slow (507k profit)
Thunderstrike: Dam/End (4,507k profit)
Thunderstrike: Dam/Rech (2,507k profit)

Run 3/18 #2
(P) Coercive Persuasion: Confuse (recipe 3M)
(C) Costume Piece: Bone wings (recipe 10k)
(C) Costume Piece: Rocket Boots (recipe 150k)
Enfeebled Operation: Immob/Range (1,507k profit)
Essence of Curare: Hold/Range (507k profit)
Kinetic Crash: KB/Acc (1,007k profit)
Rope-a-dope: End/Stun (vendor 10k)
Undermined Defenses: Rech/End (vendor 10k)

Run 3/18 #3
(P) Absolutement Amazement: Stun (23,160k profit)
(C) Costume Piece: Rocket Boots (250k recipe)
Dampened Spirits: To Hit/End (vendor 10k)
Enfeebled Operation: Immob/Range (1,507k profit)
Rope-a-dope: Acc/End (vendor 10k)
Thunderstrike: Dam/End (4,507k profit)


Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304

 

Posted

Harder to get parked toons than I thought it would be. :/

But I'magonna try it. We'll see.


 

Posted

this kinda makes me mad, i came back to the game in Nov and since ive been back i farm ALOT, i also run at least 3 SF a day, with all of that i have only gotten ONE purple since last november. so there is definatly some thing screwy with the whole system.


 

Posted

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this kinda makes me mad, i came back to the game in Nov and since ive been back i farm ALOT, i also run at least 3 SF a day, with all of that i have only gotten ONE purple since last november. so there is definatly some thing screwy with the whole system.

[/ QUOTE ]


Stop teaming?


Duel me.
I will work on my sig pic more when I have time.

 

Posted

Thanks for posting this information. The effect of purple drops alone on a farmer's ability to earn infamy is more significant than I had expected. Assuming that I am reading the chart right, and taking your rewards as a median, it looks like you were able to earn 1 purple every ~56 minutes (17 runs * 23 min per run / 7 purples). This means that purples alone are accounting for an extra 40mil (281,216K/ 7 purples) each hours. Please correct my math if I'm wrong.

Just to clarify how the information is presented:

Does - IOs '30/1/0*' mean that you received 30 common, 1 uncommon, 0 rare, and 1 purple?


All in all, I am going to have to reinvestigate the purple market redside. If this information holds true, I need to gather more information to understand what I am perceiving as an unexplained inelasticity in the purple market.


 

Posted

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this kinda makes me mad, i came back to the game in Nov and since ive been back i farm ALOT, i also run at least 3 SF a day, with all of that i have only gotten ONE purple since last november. so there is definatly some thing screwy with the whole system.

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I assume you know that you can only get purples off mobs that can drop level 50 rewards. So doing the Cap Au SF for example will never get you a purple. That leaves the ITF, LGTF, RSF, and last treespec.

Figure out how many mobs you defeat, and that'll give you an idea where you stand. Do you speed run the ITF? If so, that's about 500 mobs, divided by 8 people, so your share is about 60 mobs worth of drops. What about the LGTF? Do you stealth to Penny and Vet recall back? Do you kill the chatterboxes and fail that mish? Do you have Hami defeat most of the Rikti? Do you skip all but the Riders? You can complete that one and defeat probably 200 mobs. Your share is 25. LRSF? Another 200 or so, so you get 25. The last treespec is under 100 mobs that generate drops (the vines don't), so 12 more for you. The faster you get at running SFs, the fewer mobs you kill, so the fewer purples you get.

Farming depends on your speed and the number of people in the mission. I defeat nearly 30 mobs a minute and I do it solo. If you farm at the same speed but do it in a team of 6, you'll get 1/6 of the drops.

Of course there may well be something wrong with the drop system. Unfortunately, just claiming that something is wrong will accomplish nothing. My results were for solo farming. You would have to keep track of your teaming situation (how many people, level, SK or not, position in team list, etc.) and get a decent sample size worth of data to get the Devs to pay attention.


Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304

 

Posted

[ QUOTE ]
...it looks like you were able to earn 1 purple every ~56 minutes...

Just to clarify how the information is presented:

Does - IOs '30/1/0*' mean that you received 30 common, 1 uncommon, 0 rare, and 1 purple?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's about one purple every 48 minutes if you take into account my second set of runs. But note that's just pure farming time, and doesn't take into account the time it takes to craft the keepers and sell stuff between runs.

And yes you have it right. The * means a purple drop.


Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304

 

Posted

this is probably a dumb question and I think I know the answer to it, but if you have a team of 6 but only you are in the mission do all the drops still fall to you?


 

Posted

Yep.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

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It's about one purple every 48 minutes if you take into account my second set of runs. But note that's just pure farming time, and doesn't take into account the time it takes to craft the keepers and sell stuff between runs.

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Thanks. I'm using your data to help formulate a *very* rough median regarding purples. Hopefully, I'll be able to see how this market segment operates soon.

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And yes you have it right. The * means a purple drop.

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Thanks. You never received more than one purple in a run?


 

Posted

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Harder to get parked toons than I thought it would be. :/

But I'magonna try it. We'll see.

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition to difficulty settings we need a slider for spawn size.


 

Posted

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[ QUOTE ]
Harder to get parked toons than I thought it would be. :/

But I'magonna try it. We'll see.

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition to difficulty settings we need a slider for spawn size.

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Oh God, this would be great, but not for farming. Just for fun's standpoint. I mean, "Relentless" is not relentless at all. It totally relents.


 

Posted

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this kinda makes me mad, i came back to the game in Nov and since ive been back i farm ALOT, i also run at least 3 SF a day, with all of that i have only gotten ONE purple since last november. so there is definatly some thing screwy with the whole system.

[/ QUOTE ]


Stop teaming?

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I have received one purple drop since their inception...and one respec recipe.

Are there waya to get them to drop more often or do you just hafta solo a lot.


�The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion."

@Mr. Magnifico

 

Posted

It's just dumb luck.

I've gotten purples in missions back to back and then gone many months without seeing one.

I've gotten about 15 or so purples to drop but only 2 respec recipes but I still am not willing to assume their drop rate is lower than purples simply because they are so rare. It is tempting from my own experience but I also know that is not a reliable method.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

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Thanks. You never received more than one purple in a run?

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Incorrect. There's a ** in my second set of data, 10 runs reported on 3/19.


Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304

 

Posted

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Incorrect. There's a ** in my second set of data, 10 runs reported on 3/19.

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Thanks for the correction. I wasn't reading your chart correctly then.


 

Posted

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It's just dumb luck.

I've gotten purples in missions back to back and then gone many months without seeing one.

I've gotten about 15 or so purples to drop but only 2 respec recipes but I still am not willing to assume their drop rate is lower than purples simply because they are so rare. It is tempting from my own experience but I also know that is not a reliable method.

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Random roll is random.

I've *never* seen a respec recipe drop.
the Goat got had three purples drop for him between 45 and 50 (all ones he wanted to slot, alas).

Conversely, I've *never* gotten a purple drop on my fire/rad controller, who is configured explicitly to farm stuff.
He has several purple sets slotted, but he paid for them in inf.
He's probably nuked a billion zombies on his farm map, nary a purple has he seen.


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

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He's probably nuked a billion zombies on his farm map, nary a purple has he seen.

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Which map do you use for this?