You cannot look at odds like that. Each event is independent.
Also, we don't know the odds for a single drop, so we cannot calculate your situation.
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Well, UGT kinda explains 1 away right there. you only get a rare or very rare if you complete the trial successfully, so not so much 'luck' involved there.
Once you get above the threads level in a trial you have the exact same percentage each time to get a VR> The way calculating a streak works is by multiplying each success by that percentage again. I am unsure what the percentage is for a VR. If it is 5% then your chance of getting 1 is 5%, 2 in a row is (.05x(.05)) = .25% , and the 3rd would be .0125% So, a little more than once in 10,000 times. But I am guessing at the 5% for a VR. Anybody got the skinny? Oh, and gratz. And as was mentioned above, that one Trial will change the equation a lot.
Thanks for the replies guys. I was just curious if I should run out and play the lotto or not. LOL.
I also wasn't sure if some people had made some best guesses as to the drop rates or not.
As far as the UG. I've seen a few broadcasts in RWZ that they've completed the UG and did not receive a R or VR. Anyone hearing this?
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Since it already happened, in that instance the odds were 100%.
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Originally Posted by Super Flu
I'm not sure if anyone can tell me this but I was curious as to what the odds are of receiving 3 VR drops from incarnates in a row. It happened to me 2 days ago and I'm sure I wont get another for 6 months just for that lucky streak.
They were dropped on my mind/psi dom +1 during the UG then BAF then Lambda. |
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Originally Posted by PSLAnimal
Since it already happened, in that instance the odds were 100%.
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Your mixing of percentages and decimals so freely makes my teeth gnash and my blood boil.
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Originally Posted by Blue_Centurion
Once you get above the threads level in a trial you have the exact same percentage each time to get a VR> The way calculating a streak works is by multiplying each success by that percentage again. I am unsure what the percentage is for a VR. If it is 5% then your chance of getting 1 is 5%, 2 in a row is (.05x(.05)) = .25% , and the 3rd would be .0125% So, a little more than once in 10,000 times. But I am guessing at the 5% for a VR. Anybody got the skinny? Oh, and gratz. And as was mentioned above, that one Trial will change the equation a lot.
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Rng.
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Yes, I know someone who rage-boycotted UG for over a month after grinding through a successful undergroundtrial(with no disconnects or afks) and was given an uncommon for her efforts|
Originally Posted by Super Flu
Thanks for the replies guys. I was just curious if I should run out and play the lotto or not. LOL.
I also wasn't sure if some people had made some best guesses as to the drop rates or not. As far as the UG. I've seen a few broadcasts in RWZ that they've completed the UG and did not receive a R or VR. Anyone hearing this? |
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er....percentages are decimals.....*skulks back to non euclidean shadows
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Originally Posted by DarkGob
Your mixing of percentages and decimals so freely makes my teeth gnash and my blood boil.
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There are two ways to express a probability, as a percentage or as a decimal. They both represent the same value but it's confusing to mix their usage in the same context.|
Originally Posted by Blue_Centurion
er....percentages are decimals.....*skulks back to non euclidean shadows
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Percents are best left to expressing percentiles, anyway.
"You don't lose levels. You don't have equipment to wear out, repair, or lose, or that anyone can steal from you. About the only thing lighter than debt they could do is have an NPC walk by, point and laugh before you can go to the hospital or base." -Memphis_Bill
We will honor the past, and fight to the last, it will be a good way to die...
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Yes, because the UG is just a horrible grind that we suffer through ONLY for the reward at the end. I must be a freak because I love the UG trial, win or lose, on its own merits.|
Originally Posted by Psychic Guardian
Yes, I know someone who rage-boycotted UG for over a month after grinding through a successful undergroundtrial(with no disconnects or afks) and was given an uncommon for her efforts
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And to the OP. Random means random.
... also the odds go up because you wouldn't have noticed if you hadn't STARTED with a VR.
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I'm not sure if anyone can tell me this but I was curious as to what the odds are of receiving 3 VR drops from incarnates in a row. It happened to me 2 days ago and I'm sure I wont get another for 6 months just for that lucky streak.
They were dropped on my mind/psi dom +1 during the UG then BAF then Lambda.