On the nature of ebil and marketeering
By
1VB_FIST,
Posted on: 2010-11-13 21:46 in The Market and Inventions
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If the flipper had not got involved the prices would of gone even lower. Taking the flipper out saves me a few mil.
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Originally Posted by Lohenien
Argued Point : Flippers raise prices.
Truth: All items sold on the market have 3 price points : floor, ceiling, and normal values. When someone argues that flippers raise prices, what they usually refer to is : flippers raise the floor. This is true. When someone argues that flippers raise prices, what they usually mean is: ' I feel entitled to low prices' . Why this point is argument fail: When a flipper buys low and sells higher, they sell below the ceiling price. In this way, flippers lower the price range between the floor and the ceiling. An example : Performance Shifter end/acc sells at 10-15 million. Flipper comes in and buys up a bunch of them at 2 million. Flipper lists the IOs at 5.5 million and most of the stock sells at 6 -7 million over the next 2 days. This argument says : The flipper ripped off people by stealing all the 2 million or lower costed IOs and is being so corrupt as to charge 5.5 million for them! GASP!!! How this argument is fail : The flipper has normalized the cost on the high end of the price range and brought it down to 6-7 million instead of 10 -15 million. People selling below the 4-8 million range are selling too low, while people selling above it are selling too high. The actual value of the IO is between 4-8 million as shown from long term supply and demand, but the people who use this argument fail to recognize this actual value and instead assume they are entitled to the 2 million or lower price. |
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I just don't feel you've shown at all that there are costs in play here. The only "cost" I've seen is the one to the bargain hunter who is hoping to pay a price below the average (or whatever collapse method) price.|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
It's true that the flipper needs higher prices to work under. Still does not change what the flipper does. I think the debate is whether the "freeing up of slots, market flow, stability, extra fees, etc" make up for the markup on the IO. For me I feel a lot of those benefits are overblown.
For the second paragraph. If one person could be nominated as the 'spokesman' it would make my life a lot easier. My point is that whatever that point below trend it will always be higher then point at which the flipper bought the IO. As I said before it's a trade off between the claimed benefits and the increase in price. As for your third. I have said before it does provide stability but at what cost? I don't think the stability (and other claimed benefits) outweigh the costs. |
I'm one of those bargain hunters. I'm not a flipper. I sell what I get as drops aiming for high prices and I try to buy at low-ball prices. I'm one of the people that flipping impacts, arguably negatively, and I have no issue with them doing it. Why? Because I'm competing with them for those bids, and if they out-bid me, they win. What they do with the spoils is up to them.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Flippers can make bids in stacks of ten, whereas the person who's buying for himself or selling for himself using drop-acquired items will have to buy/sell them piecemeal.|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
Just for the record there are only a few Regens left. Most of them were sold previously. But yes I can wait.
No I claimed flippers tend to have slot space issues because they tend to be far more active AH wise. Putting all those speculative bids takes slots. Think you read a little too much into it. I'm not saying that there isn't downward pressure on prices because of flippers. I'm just saying there would be even more if there were not any flippers. Without flippers adding their markup the IO would cost even less. |
Flippers (or hardcore marketeers) if you prefer, are also more likely to use alts in a coordinated manner. Again, you're essentially advocating for the casual player, but you're ignoring one of the casual player's most compelling needs -- the need to free up inventory space.
You're saying that in a magical world without flippers, we'd all have an endless supply of goods listed at hilariously low prices. That we could depend on the low end. That isn't a justified assumption -- or at least you haven't justified it yet. Eventually, people would stop selling these items at ridiculously low prices if they couldn't sell them reliably fast.
Eventually, they might decide not to bother with selling on the market at all.
You've acknowledged that Flippers lower inflation. You have acknowledged that you think flippers are a neutral influence on the market otherwise (which is in contrast with your previous contentions). So what is your argument again? You seem to switch up at whim.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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Originally Posted by Max_zero
If the flipper had not got involved the prices would of gone even lower. Taking the flipper out saves me a few mil.
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No it doesnt. Why ? Because the cost of the IO itself is close to 2 million or as high as 3 million when rare salvage is not dipped in price.
In order to sell at a profit it needs to sell above the cost to make it. Some people do not sell above the cost to make it - they are selling too low.
When a flipper raises the floor price it makes the IO more attractive to sellers who would simply delete or vendor the recipes instead of crafting them.
Without flippers, the low prices would drive sellers away and you would have to wait longer and longer for IOs.
As people have said, as I have said, if you don't want to pay normal prices for IOs then you need to compete with flippers and bid slightly more on the low end. This is how market pvp works.
The market is not a store with set prices, get over it. Good luck trying to convince wholesalers to sell to you instead of Wal-Mart when you insist on paying less than WM does.
I am an ebil markeeter and will steal your moneiz ...correction stole your moneiz. I support keeping the poor down because it is impossible to make moneiz in this game.
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Well there has to be some inf being made or flippers wouldn't do it would they?|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
I just don't feel you've shown at all that there are costs in play here. The only "cost" I've seen is the one to the bargain hunter who is hoping to pay a price below the average (or whatever collapse method) price.
I'm one of those bargain hunters. I'm not a flipper. I sell what I get as drops aiming for high prices and I try to buy at low-ball prices. I'm one of the people that flipping impacts, arguably negatively, and I have no issue with them doing it. Why? Because I'm competing with them for those bids, and if they out-bid me, they win. What they do with the spoils is up to them. |
It hurts because everytime the flipper wins the capital (the IO) is being delayed on being deployed and it's price increases.
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This is getting a bit off-topic, but saying "capitalism regulates itself as long as buyer discipline is strict" is about the same as saying "communism works as long as each individual values the common good more than their own satisfaction". The statement itself may be true, but is only applicable to a very idealised situation, completely removed from the reality of how humans work.
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Originally Posted by 1VB_FIST
Capitalism does regulate itself within the confines of limited money supply and survival of the fittest without external regulation by idiots, aka government agencies and econ PhDs that have never worked in the private sector. Which is why buyer discipline has to be strict.
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Character index
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Firstly my use of alts comes from my WoW. To use a bank alt in WoW isn't considered hardcore it's fairly normal.|
Originally Posted by Obitus
Flippers can make bids in stacks of ten, whereas the person who's buying for himself or selling for himself using drop-acquired items will have to buy/sell them piecemeal.
Flippers (or hardcore marketeers) if you prefer, are also more likely to use alts in a coordinated manner. Again, you're essentially advocating for the casual player, but you're ignoring one of the casual player's most compelling needs -- the need to free up inventory space. You're saying that in a magical world without flippers, we'd all have an endless supply of goods listed at hilariously low prices. That we could depend on the low end. That isn't a justified assumption -- or at least you haven't justified it yet. Eventually, people would stop selling these items at ridiculously low prices if they couldn't sell them reliably fast. Eventually, they might decide not to bother with selling on the market at all. You've acknowledged that Flippers lower inflation. You have acknowledged that you think flippers are a neutral influence on the market otherwise (which is in contrast with your previous contentions). So what is your argument again? You seem to switch up at whim. |
The bolded part is silly. Don't try to tell me what I'm saying. Strawman bashing embarrasses everyone.
Where have I acknowledged that flippers lower inflation? Where have I acknowledged they are neutral. I said "at best" they are neutral. ie never having a positive impact. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
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You are still failing to understand the 3 price points of goods. Floor, ceiling and actual value.|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
Well there has to be some inf being made or flippers wouldn't do it would they?
It hurts because everytime the flipper wins the capital (the IO) is being delayed on being deployed and it's price increases. |
The floor is not the actual value and you are not entitled to it.
Think of it like this : Buy More normally sells new shiny tv for 799$, but black friday is tomorrow. Buy More puts new shiny tv on sale for 499$. For a limited time you can get the 800$ item for 500$. 500 is the floor while 800 is the ceiling. Once the new tv is not so new any more, the price normalizes to 600$ - the long term value of the TV.
What you are arguing is that new shiny tv should always be on sale at 500$.
I am an ebil markeeter and will steal your moneiz ...correction stole your moneiz. I support keeping the poor down because it is impossible to make moneiz in this game.
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They make their inf on the difference in the price ceiling and the price floor, not on the price median/average/whatever increasing.|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
Well there has to be some inf being made or flippers wouldn't do it would they?
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When the gap between the ceiling and the floor shrinks too much, the flipper leaves. When all the flippers leave, the price gap starts wandering wider again, and eventually the flipper(s) come back.
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| It hurts because everytime the flipper wins the capital (the IO) is being delayed on being deployed and it's price increases. |
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Think about the Last-Five transaction history.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
Hmm. I'm not sure I believe that. Multiple flippers drive faster high/low price convergence on the equilibrium, but I'm not sure it provides particularly strong force to lower the equilibrium value.
They provide some overall downward pressure by increasing the number of market fees in the transaction chain, but I suspect that's a very weak, long-term effect even if prices are sufficiently out of equilibrium with the money supply for fees to drive price change. |
For example, let's pretend we have a Regenerative Tissue IO. Let's say the transaction history looks something like this:
- 100,000 on 11/24/10
- 70,000,000 on 11/24/10
- 35,000,000 on 11/24/10
- 69,204,020 on 11/24/10
- 72,000,000 on 11/24/10
Now, pretend you're not the expert you are on the market -- just a guy with a shiny IO you want to sell. Or, heck, pretend you're you. What would you list the item at with those conditions?
In contrast, let's pretend that instead the transaction history looks something like this:
- 35,000,000
- 35,000,000
- 35,000,000
- 35,000,000
- 35,000,000
Now what would you do?
As you point out, what Max doesn't understand is that the bargain lister and the bargain seller aren't so important that they should overwhelm all other considerations. How consistent the price appears to be at the time of listing does have an effect on what people do for their listings. Someone who might have been inclined under example #1 to list more towards the high end will instead list more towards the low end in example #2, because under example #2 they have virtually no expectation of selling their item any time soon.
So, fine, let's assume for teh sake of argument that Max is right about the pre-existing high-end prices. Let's say the flipper doesn't influence those listings to be taken down and lowered. But every potential subsequent high-end listing is lowered if the prices are seen to be stable at a lower number.
All of this is particularly true for the expensive items, which people put a lot more thought into listing and buying.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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And if the low end is enough to cover the costs of crafting what then? You assume the low end is always below the cost of crafting.|
Originally Posted by Lohenien
No it doesnt. Why ? Because the cost of the IO itself is close to 2 million or as high as 3 million when rare salvage is not dipped in price.
In order to sell at a profit it needs to sell above the cost to make it. Some people do not sell above the cost to make it - they are selling too low. When a flipper raises the floor price it makes the IO more attractive to sellers who would simply delete or vendor the recipes instead of crafting them. Without flippers, the low prices would drive sellers away and you would have to wait longer and longer for IOs. As people have said, as I have said, if you don't want to pay normal prices for IOs then you need to compete with flippers and bid slightly more on the low end. This is how market pvp works. The market is not a store with set prices, get over it. Good luck trying to convince wholesalers to sell to you instead of Wal-Mart when you insist on paying less than WM does. |
As I said to the previous poster, in regards to the bolded part, please do not tell me what I think or what I feel.
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Strawman? Your entire premise rests on the presumption that low-ball listings would exist in appreciable quantities regardless of flippers. Otherwise, why argue that flippers raise prices by raising the absolute (and usually laughably small) floor on prices?|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
Firstly my use of alts comes from my WoW. To use a bank alt in WoW isn't considered hardcore it's fairly normal.
The bolded part is silly. Don't try to tell me what I'm saying. Strawman bashing embarrasses everyone. Where have I acknowledged that flippers lower inflation? Where have I acknowledged they are neutral. I said "at best" they are neutral. ie never having a positive impact. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. |
What everyone else is saying is that the average is what matters most, because it does.
You acknowledged that flippers lower inflation here. By implication, if nothing else. In any case, it'd be pretty absurd of you to deny that flippers lower inflation, when you spent so much time arguing that flippers don't crate items or inf, adding an extra set of transaction fees instead.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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Originally Posted by Max_zero
And if the low end is enough to cover the costs of crafting what then? You assume the low end is always below the cost of crafting.
As I said to the previous poster, in regards to the bolded part, please do not tell me what I think or what I feel. |
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| If the flipper had not got involved the prices would of gone even lower. Taking the flipper out saves me a few mil. |
I am an ebil markeeter and will steal your moneiz ...correction stole your moneiz. I support keeping the poor down because it is impossible to make moneiz in this game.
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You forgot to include the flipper. The flipper buys all the TVs at $500 the puts them up at $600.
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Originally Posted by Lohenien
You are still failing to understand the 3 price points of goods. Floor, ceiling and actual value.
The floor is not the actual value and you are not entitled to it. Think of it like this : Buy More normally sells new shiny tv for 799$, but black friday is tomorrow. Buy More puts new shiny tv on sale for 499$. For a limited time you can get the 800$ item for 500$. 500 is the floor while 800 is the ceiling. Once the new tv is not so new any more, the price normalizes to 600$ - the long term value of the TV. What you are arguing is that new shiny tv should always be on sale at 500$. |
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Actually the flipper leaves when his own personal floor and ceiling is squeezed too much. Rarely is the flippers upper and lower limits the same as the markets upper and lower limits.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
They make their inf on the difference in the price ceiling and the price floor, not on the price median/average/whatever increasing.
When the gap between the ceiling and the floor shrinks too much, the flipper leaves. When all the flippers leave, the price gap starts wandering wider again, and eventually the flipper(s) come back. But it does not follow that this raises the average price. It only follows that it raises the floor and eventually lowers the ceiling (for reasons I explained earlier). |
It does lower the ceiling but not as much as if the flipper was not there.
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I think you are right on with the reality and altruism aspect of the statement. It is how we believe things to work and how they actually work in practice where we disconnect lol. I believe in being a pseudo-responsible business owner that owes my success to my consumers. The problem is the reality of the theory in practice being shattered by the wide variety of personalities and beliefs at play in the markets. It illustrates the belief of the ideal instead of acceptance of the real ideal in practice.|
Originally Posted by Silver Gale
This is getting a bit off-topic, but saying "capitalism regulates itself as long as buyer discipline is strict" is about the same as saying "communism works as long as each individual values the common good more than their own satisfaction". The statement itself may be true, but is only applicable to a very idealised situation, completely removed from the reality of how humans work.
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It is always easier for people that are not successful or have unrealistic expectations in the markets to call marketeers evil instead of acknowledging their own failure to adapt to the tactics and techniques that make many of the marketeers successful in gaining inf. I think that was where I was going prior to my brain waking up. Thanks for kick starting my neurons
A whole bunch of 50's.
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Yes and? If the low end is not too close?
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Originally Posted by Lohenien
When the low end and the cost of crafting are too close - sellers can't profit and therefor are less likely to craft the IO and sell it. They may sell the recipe or they may delete it.
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In the real world people can't flip in large quantities, the flippers are corporations instead of single people. The wholesalers sell to them and not to single people.|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
You forgot to include the flipper. The flipper buys all the TVs at $500 the puts them up at $600.
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You missed the point, however, that the floor is like a discount price and is not something that is always available. Flippers are like Wal-Mart, they buy from "wholesalers" ( IE dumb/lazy people that list too low) and they provide the goods within the normal price ranges, but below other sellers (stores like Winn Dixie).
I am an ebil markeeter and will steal your moneiz ...correction stole your moneiz. I support keeping the poor down because it is impossible to make moneiz in this game.
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I would probably list for something like 31.55M, which means someone might buy it for 32, which is a downward pressure on the market. But I'm not a flipper, and no flippers would hang out in the environment implied by consistent 35M prices. If my lowball listing precipitated a new gap, a flipper might come back and work off that gap again. My sale is just one price in the trend, and while it might "unstick" a stuck price that's actually too high compared to what the market will bear, I am not sure it would start a true downward trend. If 35M is the price the market really "likes" 35M, sales will tend to oscillate around it a bit, and my lowball listing probably would just be a point on the scatter graph.
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Originally Posted by Obitus
In contrast, let's pretend that instead the transaction history looks something like this:
Now what would you do? |
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Low ball listings do exist whether flippers are there or not. Or do people specifically provide low ball bids just for flippers?|
Originally Posted by Obitus
Strawman? Your entire premise rests on the presumption that low-ball listings would exist in appreciable quantities regardless of flippers. Otherwise, why argue that flippers raise prices by raising the absolute (and usually laughably small) floor on prices?
What everyone else is saying is that the average is what matters most, because it does. You acknowledged that flippers lower inflation here. By implication, if nothing else. In any case, it'd be pretty absurd of you to deny that flippers lower inflation, when you spent so much time arguing that flippers don't crate items or inf, adding an extra set of transaction fees instead. |
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| Yet now the IO costs more. Higher price + same supply = lower demand. Making it harder to get capital (IOs) does not help the game. |
It's true they add an extra set of listing fees. It's also true that every IO they flip costs more. In fact the increase of price of flipped must be higher then the listing fees otherwise the flipper wouldn't do it.
If you a IO cost 30 mil your not going to flip it to 31 or 32 mil are you? The increase price you put it at must be worth your time.
As this must be my last post for tonight it's 12.30am and I'm tired.
See you all tomorrow.
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Honestly, I think you'd be doing a whole lot better here if you actually understood how the CoH market works. Because what you're describing there isn't possible within the game mechanics.|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
Eventually they buy said IO at 30 mil. They immediately relist that IO at 50 mil. Its lower then the market price so that's good right? Well actually no, it's irrelevant. The flipper has no control over the the 70 mil IOs. They will list at 70 mil regardless of what the flipper does. All the flipper did was remove one 30 mil IO and replace it with a 50 mil IO. Simply the same IO 20 mil more expensive.
Now imagine if, for example, all the 70 mil IOs sold out. The next IO up for purchase would be for 50 mil. |
Also, you'd probably sell those IOs of yours faster.
Arc#314490: Zombie Ninja Pirates!
Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.
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If the flipper is not there then there is no force bringing the price ceiling down. It may drift around naturally over time, but that's effectively random motion.|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
It does lower the ceiling but not as much as if the flipper was not there.
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Edit: and I have to leave for work.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Yes, the blind bidding system encourages a downward pressure on prices as the equilibrium is reached and as traffic increases. If there are several dozen items for sale and the price is consistently the same, then sellers are encouraged to list for lower so that their items will get preference.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
I would probably list for something like 31.55M, which means someone might buy it for 32, which is a downward pressure on the market. But I'm not a flipper, and no flippers would hang out in the environment implied by consistent 35M prices. If my lowball listing precipitated a new gap, a flipper might come back and work off that gap again. My sale is just one price in the trend, and while it might "unstick" a stuck price that's actually too high compared to what the market will bear, I am not sure it would start a true downward trend. If 35M is the price the market really "likes" 35M, sales will tend to oscillate around it a bit, and my lowball listing probably would just be a point on the scatter graph.
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Flippers wouldn't hang out in an environment where items are always going for the same price, it's true. But they are the largest singular force to drive prices towards that same-price equilibrium, and because we have only five transactions to look at, at any given time sellers very well could see the sort of price consistency that I showed in example #2 even if there are flippers present.
But for inflation -- and assuming patient buyers, a steady increase in participation, and a starting price near equilibrium -- the blind bidding system by itself would encourage a gradual decrease in prices. Simply because most people are inventory-strapped and want to move items.
But inflation is a big deal. So's impatience in an environment where the only true currency is free time.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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How many, though? At what point do we dismiss low-ball listings as outliers? At what point does most of the inventory-strapped game population abandon the market if even their low-ball bids don't sell quickly enough for them to keep bashing bad guy's heads in?|
Originally Posted by Max_zero
Low ball listings do exist whether flippers are there or not. Or do people specifically provide low ball bids just for flippers?
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This quote equals flippers lower inflation? Do the words "higher price" or "IO costs more" mean anything to you? It's true they add an extra set of listing fees. It's also true that every IO they flip costs more. In fact the increase of price of flipped must be higher then the listing fees otherwise the flipper wouldn't do it. If you a IO cost 30 mil your not going to flip it to 31 or 32 mil are you? The increase price you put it at must be worth your time. |
Flippers by definition (by your definition, in fact) lower the money supply. Thus, they lower inflation. This isn't up for debate. It's factually accurate, and based on your very own premise that flippers don't create anything.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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Just remember a cardinal rule of capitalism and business in general: if a consumer is willing to pay the price, then the goods are not priced too high. The game is specifically designed for hyperinflation in the markets since there is no cap on money supply in circulation as it is generated from nothing and thrown into a limitless pool. What is the base good or asset that backs the currency? Nothing really. Inf is a fiat currency that fluctuates in real value based on shortages and excesses in market demand. Moreover, if I have something that someone or a group of players wants, I am going to price it at what I believe to be the value of the time I put in to get said item to include matching or dropping slightly below current market trends. This is how a good business continues to thrive: adjusting to maximize profits when the consumers support it and saving for the imminent downturns.
The average consumer is not an excuse for dictating how or why prices should be lower or even regulated. Unite the consumer base and exercise buying discipline. Capitalism does regulate itself within the confines of limited money supply and survival of the fittest without external regulation by idiots, aka government agencies and econ PhDs that have never worked in the private sector. Which is why buyer discipline has to be strict. Inflation, as well as deflation, are entirely controlled by the consumer, yet the consumer(s) always want to play the victims.
Morality has no place in business as evidenced by the PvP aspect of the markets. Property and ownership have a funny effect on the haves and have nots in reality and inside virtual property markets. Value will always be subjective as are most other things in the physical world, therefore people will pay varying prices across the spectrum of the power buyer, the frugal buyer, the scrooge, the entrepreneur and the beggars.
While my belief is just as subjective as the others, you cannot hope to insult anyone that uses the market by claiming prices are high. I do think that some prices are high because the people that buy them are high for paying that price instead of earning it. However, I do know that I cannot possibly blame anyone that lists high and gets what they listed it at. That is just what the market is because the consumer is weak. I will use that weakness to my advantage. That is the truth to consumption of supply. I hope I made some sense, because looking back at it now, I am still asleep.
A whole bunch of 50's.