GR and market ruminations...


Aluminum_Dave

 

Posted

So Posi announced that your inf goes into "escrow" when you switched sides, same for prestige. So, the obvious response is to just buy up a bunch of expensive stuff and re-liquidate after you cross over.

This could open up a lot of opportunities for true arbitrage. We have two discreet markets w/sometimes wildly varying prices on some items. Of course, they'll be an evening out of prices as more ppl do this, but depending on how long it takes you to switch factions, and thus access the other side markets, and the fact you can only carry a few items at a time should provide enough of a barrier that it'll take a long time for prices to equalize. Then again, prices might equalize in anticipation of such arbitrage moves, which is to say previously cheap (on once side) items will rise in price to meet new demand.

Of course, the real question is why Influence/Infamy can't just cross over. RP reasons are silly. Joe Schmo, bank robber will have crap infamy; if he suddenly embraces Jebus and goes good, he'll have equally crap influence. When Magneto or Lex Luthor become "good guys", their enormous infamy transfers to their hero reps as influence as well. If Superman goes rogue, you're gonna tell me his words won't have a bit more cred in the Legion of Doom than Captain Boomerang? Sure, there'd be distrust, so create some penalty (say 20% hit on inf, hell even up to 50% if you really wanna destroy inf), but there's no reason to just re-start at zero.

tl;dr version: Merge the damn markets already!


An Offensive Guide to Ice Melee

 

Posted

allowing infamy/influence to cross sides is the equivalent of a market merger.

noting how ridiculously easy it is to gain merits heroside as compared to villainside, bringing over money from villainside after producing drops heroside in order to buy things heroside would create a ridiculous imbalance in prices both sides (temporary of course).


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by black_barrier View Post
allowing infamy/influence to cross sides is the equivalent of a market merger.

noting how ridiculously easy it is to gain merits heroside as compared to villainside, bringing over money from villainside after producing drops heroside in order to buy things heroside would create a ridiculous imbalance in prices both sides (temporary of course).
It's not exactly the equivalent since we don't know how much time/effort it will take to switch sides to the point of getting to use the opposing faction's market while a merged market would be immediate.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

Allow porting influence over, but say, at 50% rate.

Hey, Fulmens, I found you a money sink!

( actually, I'd be ok with this solution. We do need to kill off some inf in the system, and it does represent the idea you suffer a hit to your influence/infamy for swapping, and it will help discourage people hopping sides constantly)


 

Posted

Posi said something about how merging the markets would eventually be a Very Bad Thing according to their economic forecasts, and that they have plans in the works to fix the markets.

I have a feeling that this means an automatic system which satiates both outstanding demand and supply, which might be bad news for marketers but good news for everyone else. Kind of like how they tried to fix PvP so that no one has too huge an advantage over anyone else, which resulted in a lackluster system. We'll see though.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by EmperorSteele View Post
Posi said something about how merging the markets would eventually be a Very Bad Thing according to their economic forecasts, and that they have plans in the works to fix the markets.

I have a feeling that this means an automatic system which satiates both outstanding demand and supply, which might be bad news for marketers but good news for everyone else. Kind of like how they tried to fix PvP so that no one has too huge an advantage over anyone else, which resulted in a lackluster system. We'll see though.
meh, not really. an automated system like that can be easily exploited. put lots of over-priced lotgs in the market and watch them stop dropping? yeah right. it's impossible to code such a system without ignoring a million variables that can be exploited by a monkey with a keyboard.

also, while i make more on a per transaction basis on the red market, the liquidity and volume of the hero market lets you get away with some pretty stupid transactions on a very very frequent basis. there is no such thing as "fixing" the market unless i17 brings about EVE style market graphs that go back 20 days and catalogue every single transaction for whoever's willing to look (ZOMG TRANSPARENCY TRANSPARENCY ZOMG).

also, lol@blindbidding.


 

Posted

The thing that interests me is the question: Which way will the most people go? Will it be Brutes and MMs headed heroside? Or will it be scrappers, controllers... what WOULD people bring V-side?

I have a financial stake in the outcome:I'm going to be doing currency exchanges and hopefully lots of them. I'm quite sure I'll end up with all my money on one side and I'm trying to figure out which side.


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@Boltcutter in game.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
The thing that interests me is the question: Which way will the most people go? Will it be Brutes and MMs headed heroside? Or will it be scrappers, controllers... what WOULD people bring V-side?

I have a financial stake in the outcome:I'm going to be doing currency exchanges and hopefully lots of them. I'm quite sure I'll end up with all my money on one side and I'm trying to figure out which side.
Most indications are that people who are fed up with the red market and/or feel that there are no teaming opportunities will go blue.

However, there is also a real chance that the new zones in Praetoria will be where everyone hangs out anyhow, evening out the playing field for blue and redside alike. Given the fact that all the new zones will be designed with ultra mode in mind, I think a lot of players will want to hang their hats and see the shinies versus the old zones.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by dave_p View Post
So Posi announced that your inf goes into "escrow" when you switched sides, same for prestige. So, the obvious response is to just buy up a bunch of expensive stuff...
This is going to be a nice advantage for those of us who play both sides, and can just share our old wealth with our new-side cousin alts, whichever side they are headed to.
.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by stever View Post
This is going to be a nice advantage for those of us who play both sides, and can just share our old wealth with our new-side cousin alts, whichever side they are headed to.
.
This is the boat I'm in. I'll probably transfer inf off of characters before switching sides so I don't "lose" any of it, and will have large enough inf stockpiles on both sides where it won't really be anything more than an annoyance.


@macskull, @Not Mac | XBL: macskull | Steam: macskull | Skype: macskull
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
The thing that interests me is the question: Which way will the most people go? Will it be Brutes and MMs headed heroside? Or will it be scrappers, controllers... what WOULD people bring V-side?

I have a financial stake in the outcome:I'm going to be doing currency exchanges and hopefully lots of them. I'm quite sure I'll end up with all my money on one side and I'm trying to figure out which side.
I'd put my money on more people moving to blueside. People hate the BM (myself included, and I have loads of money, but if something doesn't exist on BM it doesn't matter).


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by xen10k View Post
Hey, Fulmens, I found you a money sink!
My first thought. All that moolah just disappears. Escrow my ***.


There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kahlan_ View Post
I'd put my money on more people moving to blueside. People hate the BM (myself included, and I have loads of money, but if something doesn't exist on BM it doesn't matter).
i'm accolading redside and playing/io'ing blue.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by EmperorSteele View Post
Posi said something about how merging the markets would eventually be a Very Bad Thing according to their economic forecasts, and that they have plans in the works to fix the markets.

I have a feeling that this means an automatic system which satiates both outstanding demand and supply, which might be bad news for marketers but good news for everyone else. Kind of like how they tried to fix PvP so that no one has too huge an advantage over anyone else, which resulted in a lackluster system. We'll see though.
But then they might as well add everything into NPC stores. It would take far less work and be no risk of bugs or player manipulation causing dips or spikes.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwellGuy View Post
But then they might as well add everything into NPC stores. It would take far less work and be no risk of bugs or player manipulation causing dips or spikes.
I agree. I suspect their ideas won't really do much directly to the market.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by PumBumbler View Post
Most indications are that people who are fed up with the red market and/or feel that there are no teaming opportunities will go blue.

However, there is also a real chance that the new zones in Praetoria will be where everyone hangs out anyhow, evening out the playing field for blue and redside alike. Given the fact that all the new zones will be designed with ultra mode in mind, I think a lot of players will want to hang their hats and see the shinies versus the old zones.
I certainly am looking forward to checking out the Praetorian zones but people who don't have GR won't be able to get there so if GR is a ticket out of the red side for some then it will be even worse for those unable to get out.

A lot depends on whether there is some huge demand to get hero ATs doing villain missions and just how far the vigilantes are willing to go. I've seen far too many threads by heroes only players to think many of them want to "sully" themselves with villain content but there was that population jump redside when VEATs hit so who knows I may be wrong and they may flock red.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aura_Familia View Post
I agree. I suspect their ideas won't really do much directly to the market.
I am more concerned they will make things worse.

Dev actions in the past few years regarding the market and market complaints:
Increased drop rates of costume recipes.
Added Merits
Added MA tickets which when MA was in heavy use took a toll on the markets
Changed PvP recipe drops making them even more rare (the only thing that spiked prices)
Altered the 60 days inactivity rule to being only against inactive accounts

Am I missing any other things they did that affected markets and prices?


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwellGuy View Post
I am more concerned they will make things worse.

Dev actions in the past few years regarding the market and market complaints:
Increased drop rates of costume recipes.
Added Merits
Added MA tickets which when MA was in heavy use took a toll on the markets
Changed PvP recipe drops making them even more rare (the only thing that spiked prices)
Altered the 60 days inactivity rule to being only against inactive accounts

Am I missing any other things they did that affected markets and prices?
I think you listed them all (and the general FAIL behind them.)

I agree with your first line.

I'm not that optimistic.

They don't seem to get the market and how it works (especially the decrypt and decaying BM). I'm waiting to be proven wrong.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwellGuy View Post
I certainly am looking forward to checking out the Praetorian zones but people who don't have GR won't be able to get there so if GR is a ticket out of the red side for some then it will be even worse for those unable to get out.

A lot depends on whether there is some huge demand to get hero ATs doing villain missions and just how far the vigilantes are willing to go. I've seen far too many threads by heroes only players to think many of them want to "sully" themselves with villain content but there was that population jump redside when VEATs hit so who knows I may be wrong and they may flock red.
Yeah, but the VEATs was casue of the ATs and powers themselves. NOT the missions. The VEAT arc is so short that it BARELY deserves the name "arc".

The best thing of the VEATs for themselves is what type of nearly open character you can make with them. (As an aside dual builds really help them with that).

I don't think many were flocking to them cause of the epic new storyline they brought. Also just in case anyone isn't clear on my opinion on the VEAT storyline:

They sure as hell DID NOT bring an epic new storyline. It was more ridiculous Arachnos (lol, seriously? were my first thoughts after getting through the arc) fodder. I'll stop there on my thoughts about that, as it's an aside and what I REALLY think about whoever wrote the VEAT arc would get me banned.


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Posted

I figured out how the devs are gonna 'fix' the market. Theyre gonna lower 'the price cap' to 200 mil, instead of 2bil.


makes about as much sense as anything else they think about the market.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain_Freak View Post
I figured out how the devs are gonna 'fix' the market. Theyre gonna lower 'the price cap' to 200 mil, instead of 2bil.


makes about as much sense as anything else they think about the market.
To steal a tagline from the current U.S. President's campaign "Now that is change I can believe in!"

I'd love that price cap in place. I'd get in line with my 200M bids and then find out where people were gathering to sell things off market for more.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwellGuy View Post
I certainly am looking forward to checking out the Praetorian zones but people who don't have GR won't be able to get there so if GR is a ticket out of the red side for some then it will be even worse for those unable to get out.

A lot depends on whether there is some huge demand to get hero ATs doing villain missions and just how far the vigilantes are willing to go. I've seen far too many threads by heroes only players to think many of them want to "sully" themselves with villain content but there was that population jump redside when VEATs hit so who knows I may be wrong and they may flock red.
People who are running Dual Pistols right now have already pre-ordered GR. Now that we know the Incarnate system is going to require GR as well will probably make GR very popular among vets.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwellGuy View Post
To steal a tagline from the current U.S. President's campaign "Now that is change I can believe in!"

I'd love that price cap in place. I'd get in line with my 200M bids and then find out where people were gathering to sell things off market for more.
lol, well said.


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Posted

It's occurred to me that I'm only moving from red->blue, and in fact just rolled up some vils to play them in Prae & blue-side, so really, there's very little reason for me to get them very wealthy. I got them to around 50M mark, basically just walking around money, but I can prolly wait to get them to Wents (and my blue-side SG) before outfitting them w/all the expensive stuff (which I already own in abundance).

I'd really like to know what bad scenarios Posi & co. imagined up for a market merger. They've never been very good at forecasting market trends in the past; I can't imagine they have a better grasp on things this time, esp w/their "fixes" coming down the pipe. *shudders*


An Offensive Guide to Ice Melee

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by EmperorSteele View Post
Posi said something about how merging the markets would eventually be a Very Bad Thing according to their economic forecasts, and that they have plans in the works to fix the markets.
That's not what he said.

He said:

(a) they cannot merge the markets because it is too technically hard. There's some good discussion and some long rambles by me on this over in the GR forum in EvilGeko's "No market merger?" thread. As best we can tell, they may have some sort of crazy, proprietary DB or at least very complex DB underlying the markets. Regardless of what's really there, the devs are afraid of screwing up the markets at a technology level, not necessarily at an economic level.

(b) GR with no merged markets was predicted to be bad for the villain market. This is what they were forecasting. So they have plans to implement things about the market. Personally, I await these things with great trepidation, but I am glad they're going to try something.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
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Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
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Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
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