How to read the market

Most important info in the guide!

j/k- That was a very nice guide, Organica. Thank you!

But seriously, we're getting a new blast set? I'm never in the AT/Powers sections, so this is news to me.

Check the date on the original post. The spring being talked about is past

lolwhoops!

I definitely need to start paying attention to dates!

Supply is very low compared to demand. Prices are being determined by people with the deepest pockets, who are bidding what are historically enormously large amounts in order to get piece of the available supply very quickly or to try and ensure that they buy the very next piece to be posted. The lower purchase prices are all "round" numbers, which experienced market users rarely employ, suggesting they are not purchaes by flippers (who usually use odd-ball numbers, never "round" ones ending in zeroes).

Bear in mind that ~1M inf is relatively small pocket change for many people who frequently play level 50 characters, being the fruits of around 10 minutes of play for a reasonably mature character playing normal content on moderately high difficulty settings. If someone with access to that sort of Inf generation needs an Alchemical Silver for something and want it right now, paying 1M inf for one during a supply drought it may have low opportunity cost compared to waiting until later to craft whatever they want. Thus, while historically very high, ~1M inf prices for mid-level salvage is not outrageous during a supply drought.

Most importantly, there is something going on in the AE right now that is draining people away from standard content. People playing in the AE don't produce common salvage as a rule of thumb - they tend to spend their tickets on the "good stuff". They also produce Inf. Producing money but no salvage means you have people with money who need salvage. Market supply decreases and you have even more Inf than usual chasing what's left.

Whenever you see common salvage supplies get low accross the board and prices dramatically rise and stay that way for an extended period, suspect the AE. That pattern has been manifest in every example of abnormal rewards there of which I'm aware.

Alchemical Silver is in something of a unique position. It's a highly demanded component for practical use (see below), and its normal supply levels (outside of any player activity shifts) are relatively low because it is mid-level salvage. This makes it a very attractive target for marketeers - alchemical silver is quite possibly the most flipped or otherwise tinkered with salvage on the market, and whole threads and activity campaigns have centered around its market activity.

Non-marketeering reasons people seek Alchemical Silver:

• It is used in common Accuracy IOs L30-40.
• It is used in common Defense IOs L30-40.
• Level 30 Accuracy and Defense IOs are crafting elements which grant a badge for additional salvage storage.
• Level 30 IOs are the first IO tier that exceeds even-level SO performance.
• A significant fraction of powers in the game call for Accuracy slotting

Combine this with the historical comparative rarity of Arcane salvage compared to Tech salvage on the hero market the comparative rarity of low- and mid-level salvage to high-level salvage, and Alchemical Silver exists in a sort of perfect storm of supply and demand. This attracts many marketeers.

Thus, I believe that the outstanding number of bids you see represent a large number of players who are bidding on multiple 10-stacks per character of AS for both IO crafting and marketeering purposes. AS attracts more of this activity than probably any other common salvage available.

Honestly, I didn't comment on it because, under the circumstances, that number of bids seemed rather normal to me.

I got whites selling for 3x the price of oranges. Grar. Damn you stupid monkey farmers.

So, what's a solution? Join in a farm and roll all your tickets for salvage?

Well, aside from that being somewhat altruistic, it could also be sort of profitable at the moment...

I'd expect I19 next week, and things will... well, not return to normal maybe, but move on to a completely different player trend.

That may be reading more than is there.

I'm in complete agreement with UberGuy about what's going on. To me that
means you're seeing large volatility in an important salvage niche.

Based on what I've seen in globalchat, a LOT of people are PL'ng their minds
out in AE right now, and if the rates I've heard are anywhere near true, you
have a metric crapton of L30+ toons that are trying to buy a dozen or so
Acc IO's *each*, with enough inf on hand to duke it out for the limited supply.

What I think you're seeing is extremely high demand for a key item.

I can tell you, as an Ebil Marketeer, that would be a very expensive niche
to try to manipulate... Just by looking at the prices you showed, it would
take 100's of millions, or more to "produce a shortage", or far more importantly,
to control it for profit...

For that amount, I'd get a better return by flipping a 200M Armageddon
Purple for 300M with a lot less hassle and risk. I wouldn't touch AlSilver
with a 10ft cattle prod atm.

That said, if I wanted one, I'd throw out a 55-100K bid, and expect it
tomorrow given the extreme volatility.


Regards,
4

How I read this:

One or more people have a very large number of outstanding bids on AlSil.

A large number of people probably have a small number of outstanding bids on AlSil.

Last 5 trades are probably all at higher prices than the lowest outstanding offered AlSil (meaning that bidders did not bother to creep).

You could find out two more vital pieces of information. If you have one Al Sil, offer it at 1 inf and see where it trades; that is the highest outstanding bid. Then try to buy one by bid creeping; if you are diligent then that is the lowest outstanding offer. With that additional information it can help you determine whether these last 5 trading levels are representative of the overall market in Al Sil.

You don't really need to farm. Just do an arc or two, say Kelly Nemmer's or Buck Salinger's in Croatoa, solo or with a couple of friends at x2, x4, x6, or x8, whatever you can manage easily. You wind up with tons of salvage -- more than I can store -- and a decent number of merits for your trouble. If you forget about the drops and just play for fun you very quickly wind up with more salvage than you can hold.

The devs intentionally make broad categories of random drops to avoid the problem other games have with forcing players to defeat very specific enemies to get specific equipment. They've gone a little in that direction with specific rewards for certain TFs and activities (Hami-O's from Hamidon, Recluse and Statesman's TF, and the recent Incarnate rewards for certain TFs). But since Incarnate shards can drop from any level 50 enemy, only the Hami-Os are really forcing you to do specific content for specific rewards. And since Hami-Os are pretty niche items -- not overpowered by any means, though certainly quite useful in certain circumstances -- it's no big deal that those are the only sources (I've been able to get ones I want on the market with a minimum of hassle).