Rough Candy cane drop rate

Very provisional of course after less than a full evening, and all this data is from the Baby New Year mission.

Right now I'm seeing a drop rate from bosses of close to 60%, which I think is overly high.

Minions is sat around 11%
(I have only fought Lts when teamed and inside the Lord of Winter zone so can't develop that data in the same consistent manner)

It is clear that there is (with >95% confidence) a difference in the drop rate between foe classes within the Winter Horde rather than a straight percentage chance like Vangurd Merit drops from Rikti.

Solo set to enable bosses gives 9 Winter Lord Class foes each BBNY run. (4 before the cave, 1 in the cave, 4 spawn after the rescue).

The data I acquired tonight is consistent with my prior drop rates from the 'live test' but with better tracking at my end I noticed the boss/minion different drop rates.

At the moment, blueside prices are 110,000/cane. That's actually a bit lower than it has been most of this month. Usually the event opens with a price spike followed by a crash, but so far it looks like we're skipping the spike.

I got two candy canes, fighting a BNY map set for -1/x4. I know there aren't a lot of snowmen on that map, but the RNG must hate me. Sixty percent sounds pretty shiny.

The lowest I got from the 9 bosses on the BNY map was 4 canes.

My gut is leaning towards 40-50% long term, but next week (when I'm off work) is when I'll have the statistically valid numbers done.

I was dumbfounded by the boss/minion ratio.

(but then again for normal invention salvage its a 5:1 drop rate)

<edit>

What I get from Baby New Year is dwarfed from the Lord event. At one point last night I went from a PI repsent to the event realm, out to Talos, into a new realm, then to Atlas for a 3rd realm, hit the 2nd instance of that realm all without stopping. 80 canes from the event basically without stopping.

(I could have the AP/Talos reversed it gets hazy)


Solo grinding canes is going to be slower, but available any time. The Event with a critical mass of otehrs will be faster if you can get it rolling.

I got a Celerity +Stealth, ie a Pool C drop for sure. I think some of my Pool As came from the bosses. I'll verify tonight.

<edit>
Got Pool As last night from bosses.

1st run tonight got a Pool A drop from the first Winter Lord Boss

After adding todays runs

Boss rate 56.7%
Minions 12.2%

I'll do the stats after tomorrow's runs to get a 95% confidence interval.

Added another set of runs tonight

Boss drop rate: average 56.3% (95% confidence interval 48.2 - 64.4)
Minion drop rate: average 10.7% (95% CI 8.5-13.0)

Firming the numbers up quite nicely.

Thanks for checking it out, Cat.

I have to say from running the presents, rescuing the baby and defeating the Lord of Winter that I find the quickest path to canes is baby new year mission and reward at the end.

I'm seeing that the Winter Lord/Winter Guard named mobs MAY have a Different drop rate as Lts

All my boss data solo is on the named mobs, but the initial Lt data is showing a difference between the WL/WG Lts and normal Blights. I need more data, to get this to be a statistical vlaid difference.
It may be that snow beast have a different drop rate, but unless I find them pre-spawned when solo, its going to be rough getting the rate isolated. Inside the realm, there are too many folks around ,and you are likely to only even get partial credit.

Anyway here is the data, the Lt drops need a lot more work, the WL/WG boss and minion rates are pretty tight in their range.

Data in Mean (lower 95% confidence, upper 95% confidence) Format

WL/WG Boss 51.3% (44.2, 58.3)
Boss - No data
WL/WG Lt 23.3% (15.1, 31.6)
Blight Lt 12.7% (0.6, 24.7)
Minion 10.7% (8.0, 13.4)

after 42 additional runs (*my eyes bleed*) today, defeat all the snowmen.

Changes:
WL/WG Lt 22.8% (18.7, 26.8)
Minion 10.0% (7.8, 12.1)

Firmed up the Lt WL/WG numbers nicely.

Working on the Blights next

Last week, a level 50 Snowbeast minion dropped a Ragnarok: Chance for Knockdown recipe for me, while doing the BNY mission.

With more data, the named Lt and the Blight drops aligned so my thoughts upthread are shown to be wrong... (thats why we do repeats)

Current data
Bosses 50.0% (44.5, 55.5)
Lts 22.4% (19.1, 25.7)
Minions 10.0% (8.2, 11.7)

Having defeated several thousand snowmen solo in pursuit of this, I'm putting this to rest for a bit (or maybe for the year).

Any stats on the Present Drops. I am guessing in the 30-35% range.

As for the Minions, 10% sounds about right, if they are green conned or higher. I have yet to get a candy cane off a grey con Frostling, but have gotten 3 out of 3 canes of green con Frostling spawn (but only twice out of 1000's)

So I always take green to orange cons out for canes and XP, even others abandoned spawns, and leave the red, purple and grey ones for someone else, if another box spawns the prior spawn dies, so it does not prevent someone else from getting next box spawn.

I have found present hunting is a great way to fine tune my travel skills and really get to know the maps. I can now land a super jump on the box usually from full distance, and stop right at the box in superspeed, still working on teleport to the right spot (you can't target the box or your teleport through it), and working on airbreaks in flying to boxes (aka hover). But Definately Superspeed is best (if you know the route), Superjump is best for looking unknown areas. Flying is worst, too slow. I don't have toon with both superjump and superspeed, but I think that would be absolute best, but I have mastered the rocket assisted superspeed jump, for those walls that are just beyond my jump range.

The beginning of the season was great for candy canes. I noticed during the preview day that the candy canes were bringing a hefty price at the market. I decided to try an experiment. I fount a loop through steel canyon farming the presents. On a roughly 7 minute loop the lowest amount of candy canes that dropped were 4 and the most was 10. The price fluctuated through the first couple days anywhere between 150,000 to 250,000 per cane. Every 7 minutes I would drop the candy canes into WW (it was right in the loop for efficiency sake), check the going rate for the canes and sell them for the going rate. By the time I made the next loop, the canes I had put in previously had sold. This was netting me approximately 10-15 inf an hour. It made my little scrapper a good chunk of change. At one point, Lord Winter smiled upon me. I entered a stack of 10 canes into WW overnight for 150,000 and logged. When I woke up in the morning, I found that someone had bid on the stack....but had an extra zero for their bid on 10... BANG! 150 mil infl to me shining in WW. Life is Good!

If it was one of you, THANKS!

-Forge-

As a wrapup on this note, I plowed through my chat logs to determine the stats on the rate that presents yield a candy cane.

I had to create parser with a little bit of state, since the message saying that you opened a present may be followed by a message saying you received a candy cane a random number of lines later. I chose to only associate a candy cane reception with a given present opening if it happened within 10 chat log lines of the present opening message.

I ended up having opened 1498 presents, 533 of which gave me a candy cane. That's 35.6% drop rate, with a 95% confidence interval of 33.15%-38.06%. My guess on the "round" number is either 33.33%, 35%, or 36.66%.