Please tell me I'm just unlucky with drops!
By
Archie Gremlin,
Posted on: 2009-10-03 01:02 in The Market and Inventions
The random number generator is random. The weighting of tables to make commonly used recipes show up more often was, as far as I know, only applied to merit and ticket rolls, meaning that every recipe on a critter kill has an equal chance.
At a glance, I'd say you got the right number of drops. It's not a great run when a Crushing Impact Dam/Rech and a Red Fortune End are your best recipes, but at least you got more than 4.
Your data sample is small. Keep going, and you should eventually see better recipes mixed in.
@Roderick
Up untill about 3-4 days ago drops have been totally borked. If that is the data for the last 2 weeks then thats not surprising at all. Over the last few days...Yeah bad luck.
D: Toss me a hai @DarkNat My Fify glory: Renzer Dark/Dark Corr., Renzro Dark/Dark Def., Amartasu Dark/Dark Scrap.Less important ones: Fire/Fire Blaster,Ice/Ice Blaster,Ele/Ele Brute, Mind/Storm Troll,Fire/Kin Corr.,Bots/FF MM., DB/Regen Scrap.
May I point you towards dropstats. This sort of output is much easier to see what is expected and if you are actually getting out of range results.
My own few newspaper missions on my brute last night gave me this. Pool A recipes right on the button, salvage a little towards the low end, but Thursdays salvage was a little towards the high end.
Code:
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Archie Gremlin's Drop Stats v0.4.0
http://www.glasspaw.com/dropstats/
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Defeats Minion Lieut. Boss Under. Pet Grey Unknown
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577 528 42 6 0 0 0 1
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1 rewarding mobs of unknown rank
Ocala (1)
Drops Total Common Uncommon Rare Very Rare
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Pool A 17 9 6 2 0
Salvage 39 27 10 2
Inspirations 133 92 39 2
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Other Drops
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Inf. Rewards 582 (864,634 inf, 0 xp, 44,000 debt)
Prestige 11,968
Enhancements 4 single origin enhancements
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Pool DropRate Drops Expected Mobs
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Pool A 2.54% 16 10-26 630 minion equivalents
Salvage 6.47% 39 37-63 603 minion equivalents
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(Table excludes mobs of unknown rank and their drops.)
(1 in 20 runs will be outside the expected range.)
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
Yes, there are certain people that are just unlucky. Come join our club.
It's even worse when you are married to one of the lucky ones.
It used to be more blatant when the end of the TF would drop the recipe, but he still does great on random rolls.
Since the fix, my best drop has been a Crushing Impact. I'm not complaining, I've made so many millions selling the standard IOs that have dropped, I'm almost done with a build I thought would take another month.
My husband logged on for the first time since the patch last night. We were in the RWZ, parking characters for a MSR and decided to smack around a few Rikti.
In the second group, one of the bosses dropped him a Numina rec/regen.
My Characters
I thing you got the right amount.
I worked out the number of expected Pool As for the Champions of ... mobs and it came to between 108 and 152. You received 112 recipes which is low but within the expected range.
(I ignored the other mobs and assumed that all recipes were Pool A so this is only an approximation.)
I have the evening off tonight. I'll download and set up drop stats and help out with the log files if I can figure out how to get that working correctly. I just cant remember it ever taking me 6000 kills or more and still no decent recipe drops let alone no purples.
That 6000 is from the 1st and 2nd... farming Battle Maiden. I believe that is after the new patch went live.
As I posted in the other thread, it just took me over 7000 recorded defeats to earn my first purple post drop rate change. (What I didn't say was I did it for two other nights without recording, and after getting frustrated with no purples decided to fire up herostats and start logging the data) Rough approximation is probably a little over 11,000 kills before the first drop! Ouch! (I know we can't count the unrecorded stuff but I have a general idea of how many runs I did. :P ) When I took a look at it a year ago, my sample size was much bigger but even then I never had a dry spell over 5000 defeats.
Hopefully as more moderately painful data comes in, it will be a bit more rewarding. 
Quote:
It looks like your rare recipes were from a slow set, a defense debuff set, and an immob set. Maybe one of the zingers is rare as well? Not much improvement to add a taunt set to that mix.|
Originally Posted by Ignitros
I have been running missions since the new i16 patch went live and have yet to get any drops of significance. Please look at the stats below and tell me I'm just unlucky.
|
You're certainly unlucky. The quality of drops is always going to vary, but as someone already noted, the quantity looks about right. For every 6k defeats that you end up with this pile of dreck, you or someone else does 6k defeats and ends up with a purple or 2, a Numi: Heal, and a LotG: Defense. Don't sweat it - it all evens out in the end.
My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.
I just did a quick check and 1 purple in 11,000 defeats is very unlucky. It's probably a 1 in a 1000 event. That makes it suspicious but not implausible. The big questions is, how many other people are getting the same luck?
What was your usual difficulty settings for these runs?
My runs were all set solo +0 fighting as 8 man team fighting bosses with no AV's on the non AV Battle Maiden map. Counting my unrecorded runs.... I averaged 387 kills per map. I ran 35 total runs and no purples. I would say the drop counts were very close to what I posted earlier but 4 times as many. The only annomaly would be NO purples.
I seem to remember a post by a dev a looooong time ago that stated that you got x chance for drop from minions and then a higher chance for drop by lt's and so on with bosses and AV's. Is this still true or has it changed over the years?
Quote:
So far its been +2 mobs set for +8 heroes with no bosses on my end. (Mostly council with 1 run worth of Demons tossed in for good measure)|
Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin
I just did a quick check and 1 purple in 11,000 defeats is very unlucky. It's probably a 1 in a 1000 event. That makes it suspicious but not implausible. The big questions is, how many other people are getting the same luck?
What was your usual difficulty settings for these runs? |
*Edit*
Changed up farm toons tonight, all seems right with the universe again. Purple drop at about 500 kills then again at 2300. That was still a nasty streak!
Quote:
I believe it's still true although I haven't checked with a decent data set. The wiki entries for Recipes and Invention Salvage are correct as far as I know.
|
Originally Posted by Ignitros
I seem to remember a post by a dev a looooong time ago that stated that you got x chance for drop from minions and then a higher chance for drop by lt's and so on with bosses and AV's. Is this still true or has it changed over the years?
|
I have been running missions since the new i16 patch went live and have yet to get any drops of significance. Please look at the stats below and tell me I'm just unlucky.
All stats collected from HeroStats v4.6.3.0
Name # defeated
Champion of Battle 948
Champion of Mourning 1891
Champion of War 346
Cpl. Jitoy 6
Gen. Kantai 8
Gentay 6
Kolaga 4
Lieutenant 0
Lt. Kentow 4
Unknown 0
Warrior Slammer 0
Yatima 8
Total defeated 3221
All defeated were even level con 50
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Drops
Adjusted Targeting : Rech (Recipe) 1
Adjusted Targeting : Rech/End Reduction (Recipe) 1
Air Burst: Dam/End (Recipe) 1
Air Burst: Dam/Range (Recipe) 1
Alpha Particle Exposure 2
Argon Experiment 1
Auroral Particle Bombardment 1
Awaken 10
Barium Irradiation 1
Bleeding Stone 2
Boron Exposure 7
Bounce Back 4
Break Free 18
Catch a Breath 103
Ceramic Armor Plate 20
Cesium Exposure 1
Chaos Theorem 1
Chronal Skip 1
Cleaving Blow: Acc/Dam (Recipe) 1
Cleaving Blow: Dam/End (Recipe) 1
Cosmic Ray Exposure 1
Crushing Impact: Dam/Rech (Recipe) 1
Demonic Threat Report 20
Destiny 5
Diamond 3
Doctored Wounds: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe) 1
Dramatic Improvement 46
Efficacy Adaptor : End Mod/Acc (Recipe) 1
Emerge 4
Energy Weapon 5
Enfeebled Operation: Acc/Immob (Recipe) 1
Enfeebled Operation: End/Immob (Recipe) 1
Enrage 88
Essence of Curare: End/Hold (Recipe) 1
Extreme Measures: Acc/Range/Rech (Recipe) 2
Fluorine Research 1
Focused Rage 44
Fortune 12
Gamma Particle Irradiation 3
Gold 3
Good Luck 21
Hydraulic Piston 17
Hydrogen Exposure 1
Insight 74
Invention: Accuracy (Recipe) 7
Invention: Damage (Recipe) 8
Invention: Defense Buff (Recipe) 5
Invention: Endurance Red. (Recipe) 8
Invention: Fear Duration (Recipe) 2
Invention: Fly (Recipe) 5
Invention: Healing (Recipe) 1
Invention: Hold Duration (Recipe) 3
Invention: Immobilize Duration (Recipe) 3
Invention: Interrupt Duration (Recipe) 3
Invention: Knockback Distance (Recipe) 1
Invention: Range (Recipe) 15
Invention: Recharge Red. (Recipe) 11
Invention: Resist Damage (Recipe) 4
Invention: Run (Recipe) 1
Invention: Sleep Duration (Recipe) 1
Invention: Snare Duration (Recipe) 2
Invention: Stun Duration (Recipe) 2
Invention: To Hit Buff (Recipe) 2
Invention: ToHit DeBuff (Recipe) 2
Keen Insight 54
Kinetic Crash : Recharge/Endurance (Recipe) 1
Kinetic Weapon 21
Luck 56
Mathematic Proof 15
Neodymium Irradiation 4
Nevermelting Ice 15
Pacing of the Turtle: Acc/Slow (Recipe) 1
Pangean Soil 3
Perfect Zinger: Taunt (Recipe) 1
Perfect Zinger: Taunt/Rech (Recipe) 1
Platinum 2
Pneumatic Piston 9
Polonium Irradiation 2
Psionic Threat Report 4
Radon Irradiation 1
Red Fortune: Endurance (Recipe) 1
Regenerating Flesh 20
Respite 100
Rikti Alloy 1
Ruby 24
Rugged 19
Sapphire 2
Silver 22
Spirit Thorn 10
Sturdy 43
Synthetic Intelligence Unit 1
Take a Breather 54
Tellurium Bombardment 3
Tempered Readiness: Acc/Slow (Recipe) 1
Temporal Analyzer 14
Temporal Tracer 4
Thorn Tree Vine 1
Titanium Coating: End/Rech (Recipe) 1
Titanium Coating: End/Res (Recipe) 1
Titanium Coating: Rech/Res (Recipe) 1
Titanium Shard 6
Touch of Lady Grey: Chance for Negative Energy Dam (Recipe) 1
Touch of Lady Grey: Defense Debuff/Rech (Recipe) 1
Trap of the Hunter: End/Immob (Recipe) 1
Unquenchable Flame 4
Xenon Exposure 4