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Shouldn't the community take the view that spending 5 Million or so for these garbage IO's a deal?
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For whatever reason, some people who random-roll will put it up anyway even if it's worth more at the vendor. My theory is that they don't want to see the 20 merits "go to waste" but there are undoubtedly a dozen different reasons.
So while a "fair" price for a garbage pool C might be 1 million inf, as long as there are 30 sitting, and the sell rate is 5 a month, nobody's going to let it sit for 6 months waiting to get a million inf.
I'd pay a million for any Pool C without blinking, but my personal minimum bid for any recipe I'm actually going to use is 55K. I figure that's, at the least, a "thank you for tying up the market slot" amount. . .
. .. I value my own market slots at 100K a day minimum, so maybe I should bump my "free recipe" price to 101K.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
I muled off my 3 vendor trash rolls for "someday".
Someday it will be worth more than the vendor will pay or someday I will have a use for it or someday that mule will get played and I will want those slots cleared.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
So, I put up a level 33 Numina unique recipe on the market earlier today, and it took less than 6 hrs to fetch 60 million minus fees.
Looks like farming Posi will be very lucrative for the foreseeable future.
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I updated villain side today. I didn't do hero side. I'm not sure when we'll get around to doing hero side.
I did the update close to 2x xp weekend on purpose. I wanted to see how much it had gone up (quite a bit), and find out how long it takes to go back down. I'll try to check it again in mid February and see where things stand.
-DR
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I updated Villain side again today. Aside from a few stragglers, prices are down a bit since 2x xp. They're still higher than they were before 2x xp of course, but not by a whole lot (note: I'm only talking about Pool C's and D's here - purples are still riding pretty high, but they're outside the scope of this analysis).
More interesting than that is that, for the moment at least, the prices of the various options seem to be converging. Of the 16 options I track, 10 of them fall into the 400-500k per merit range. The best options from each category are even closer: the level 25 LotG at 450k, the level 25-29 pool D random at 473k, and the level 10-14 pool C random at 500k.
Most interesting of all, to me anyway, is that the 10-14 pool C random roll is the most profitable option at 500k per merit. I wouldn't have predicted that, but it looks like there's a mild shortage of a few "capped at 30" sets (especially the new sets) that is driving the average up.
I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next week.
-DR
This thread is like a license to print money. Particularly villain-side.
I made a number of rolls in the 10-14 range and while I thought I rolled a bunch of crap, when I scanned recipe prices, all I could think was "CHA CHING!"
So good.
Wonderful stuff! Thank you very much.
Kudos on the effort to create this spreadsheet, and to provide it for public viewing. But not all the info on the sheet is accurate.
The price listed heroside for Touch of Death D/E/R, for example, is 10,000. Looking at the last 5 sales of this recipe from level 25-40 (80 sales), there were exactly two sales at that price, for level 36 recipes, and those were clearly lowball bids that someone got a steal on. ALL the other transactions were at least .5 million, and most were for 2-5 Million. Also, NONE were available for any level of the recipe, except for level 40, where the recent prices were much higher... in the 6-8 Million range, with a high of 10 million.
So these recipes are worth way more than 10K.
Not surprising that there are some errors in a study of this size, but this one jumped out at me, because I've been rolling Pool D randoms recently.
*Edit: fixed a typo, clarified, and took out an overstatement*
Keep in mind the blue side data are close to a month old.
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Keep in mind the blue side data are close to a month old.
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Fair enough, but then again, so were quite a few of those transactions still listed at WWs. Not a whole lot of these are getting listed for sale, but there are bids up for every level.
Prices may have risen in the last month, but this wasn't a garbage recipe a month ago either. Just sayin.
I didn't do the hero numbers, but that ToD triple looks like a typo to me. It was listed at 4 mil on 24Dec, so yeah, it probably didn't go from that to vendor trash in 3 weeks.
-DR
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I updated villain side today.
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And again. The market seems to be stabilizing at around 500k / merit, with the 10-14 pool C and 25-29 pool D rolls practically tied for first place at 497k each. The "sure thing," the level 25 LotG, is 450k / merit.
Interesting math: 500k - 10% (market fee) = 450k
Have we found the equilibrium price?
-DR
Hmm. if a merit is three minutes of TF work [call it five with overhead], that equates to roughly 6 million inf per hour. And that's very roughly the earning capacity of a level 50... so it passes the sanity check.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
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Hmm. if a merit is three minutes of TF work [call it five with overhead], that equates to roughly 6 million inf per hour. And that's very roughly the earning capacity of a level 50... so it passes the sanity check.
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If you are running fast task forces it actually doubles or more the earning capacity of a level 50.
I don't get to play as much as I used to, but by the time my VEAT made 50 I had eight rolls worth on the Pool C table. Aaaaaand: all crap. And I used the price index, too. Well, one was selling for 1.5 million. *sigh* Stupid merits. Stupid RNG. I wonder how long I'll have to hold on to these before people realize that a bunch of Stupefy's and Malaise's Illusions are valuable? 
There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.
bump.
I use this when pricing builds and I don't want it getting lost. Could someone please put this in the guide section?
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I updated villain side today.
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And again. I'll try to get the hero numbers done later.
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Could someone please put this in the guide section?
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That's not a bad idea. Who would we PM about that?
-DR
Ex or Nivienne
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
Fair return is linked to whatever the next person will pay for your product.
I'm not sure that it's a worthwhile endeavor to try to figure out an expected return or value in this market.
Scarcity favors the seller, so offer accordingly, but be prepared to pull stuff off the market if the buy prices fall away from you.
Scarcity, in my world, over the last 10 days or so, has equated to a 50% mark up...without question or exception. I will pay a small penalty as I pull stuff down that won't sell b/c it's too high, but I'm okay with that.
Otherwise, posting high in a scarce environment has brought me ~ 1.2B INF across both sides since 2XP Saturday and I haven't flipped a dang thing. I certainly didn't expect to get such returns.
In relation to fair return, my point is...more so than the math, it's been a psychological effect that has bankrolled me.
Edit: Clarified my point.
Repeat Offenders