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Thanks for posting the links.
It's interesting to see that the LoTg: recharge (85mill) bears an opportunity cost of 16.985mil redside which translates back to ~33 merits.
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What are you talking about?
If the LoTG:recharge was priced as per the average price per merit of 509,925, it would be selling for 101,985,000 infamy. Selling for 85 mill, it means that anyone deciding to go for the sure thing is missing out on 16.985million potential infamy if they would have instead used those merits on just random rolls. Translating the 16.985mil infamy back into merits using the average price per merit, it only appears that the sure thing would cost someone one recipe and some change. Not a bad tradeoff- for now.
Any chance we can put somewhere the standard deviation of these numbers?
Lots of thanks for this index.
I just recently acquired 200 merits(I know I know, I just can't TF that much these days) on my villain, and I was going to flat out buy a LoTG: +Recharge since I've had bad luck with random recipes in the quick Katie days. Then, I saw that your numbers placed the highest value in the 35-39 TF random rolls and decided what the heck, let's go with the numbers.
Ended up rolling 10 times and getting a Miracle unique, LoTG: +Recharge, and a few other recipes that should sell for 10-30 mil a piece.
I love it when the numbers work out.
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If the LoTG:recharge was priced as per the average price per merit of 509,925, it would be selling for 101,985,000 infamy. Selling for 85 mill, it means that anyone deciding to go for the sure thing is missing out on 16.985million potential infamy if they would have instead used those merits on just random rolls. Translating the 16.985mil infamy back into merits using the average price per merit, it only appears that the sure thing would cost someone one recipe and some change. Not a bad tradeoff- for now.
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Why don't you use the Max PPM # in bold at the top? You know, the big important one, that is supposed to be used for opportunity cost.
Still not convinced? Just listen to Toshin, one of our many satisfied customers!
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I just recently acquired 200 merits(I know I know, I just can't TF that much these days) on my villain, and I was going to flat out buy a LoTG: +Recharge since I've had bad luck with random recipes in the quick Katie days. Then, I saw that your numbers placed the highest value in the 35-39 TF random rolls and decided what the heck, let's go with the numbers.
Ended up rolling 10 times and getting a Miracle unique, LoTG: +Recharge, and a few other recipes that should sell for 10-30 mil a piece.
I love it when the numbers work out.
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There you have it. Proof positive that my wealth building system can work for YOU! Call now, operators are standing by!
Results not typical.
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Any chance we can put somewhere the standard deviation of these numbers?
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Not likely... I don't know how to make Excel or Google Docs do standard deviation. To be honest, it's been long enough since I took a stats class that I'm only vaguely familiar with the meaning of standard deviation. 
But if Smurphy knows how to do it, or someone can explain it to me in a way that makes sense, then we can give it a try.
-DR
Excel and/or Open Office have an automagic command for it. There are so many variations of standard deviation that I'm not 100% sure which one it uses.
Well then, if it's that simple...
Mind tossing a SD section in next time you do an update? 
Hero side, unbound leap stealth proc and celerity stealth proc... the price difference is funny, ... for something i can BOTH slot in sprint for same result.
Global Co VG's/SG's | xeaon plot
LRSF Mission 4, Get the code with no Agroo at all , Guide | Speed SMSF Guide | Speedy LGTF Guide |Post your Mids Build in game Guide
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Hero side, unbound leap stealth proc and celerity stealth proc... the price difference is funny, ... for something i can BOTH slot in sprint for same result.
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Makes about as much sense as a level 30 -KB recipe being worth more than a level 10, doesn't it? 
-DR
Sorry if this has been answered elsewhere, but is rolling always best at 50 (PPM) or is there an earlier level (30 or 40) where the PPM might be higher on random rolls. Just curious, i have a 30 corr with 110 merits and I am planning to wait until 50 at the moment.
Sermon
@sermon
One of Six, Cannibal 6
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Sorry if this has been answered elsewhere, but is rolling always best at 50 (PPM) or is there an earlier level (30 or 40) where the PPM might be higher on random rolls. Just curious, i have a 30 corr with 110 merits and I am planning to wait until 50 at the moment.
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I have no idea, because doing the analysis for levels 10-49 is just too much work. Most of us farm merits with our 50's, so that's what I looked at.
-DR
There's a "known shortage" of IO's under level 50 these days.
Most IO's are generated at level (50 or set max) as mentioned. There's a lot of levels which used to get regular supply [e.g. level 33 heroside, 39 or 40 or 41 v-side] that aren't getting any supply any more.
So in THEORY supply is down, demand is still there. I have done level 30 rolling and gotten paid reasonably well for my pains. But I would advise you to do your own research in this case. I might say "roll at 33" but that's about as useful as someone saying "bet on black."
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
No, that's fine, I'm not looking for the golden answer. I am sure there are trends this way and that, and perhaps hiccups therein. Just curious what peoples' impressions are. Some recipes depreciate as the level goes down, some go up in value, and some just can't get any cheaper.
Sermon
@sermon
One of Six, Cannibal 6
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There's a "known shortage" of IO's under level 50 these days.
Most IO's are generated at level (50 or set max) as mentioned. There's a lot of levels which used to get regular supply [e.g. level 33 heroside, 39 or 40 or 41 v-side] that aren't getting any supply any more.
So in THEORY supply is down, demand is still there. I have done level 30 rolling and gotten paid reasonably well for my pains. But I would advise you to do your own research in this case. I might say "roll at 33" but that's about as useful as someone saying "bet on black."
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Question: Wouldn't 33 or 32 be better for the purpose of exemplaring? Or is that more intended for people swapping into IOs straight at level 27? I have a pair of Plant/Rad and Fire/MM that I'm going park at level 32 and run posi duos every now and then. Trying to decide whether I should leave one of them at 30 instead.
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Question: Wouldn't 33 or 32 be better for the purpose of exemplaring? Or is that more intended for people swapping into IOs straight at level 27? I have a pair of Plant/Rad and Fire/MM that I'm going park at level 32 and run posi duos every now and then. Trying to decide whether I should leave one of them at 30 instead.
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When designing a build for ex'ing, I'll use anything between 28-33. I prefer level 33's, but I'll take what I can get.
-DR
I checked the market today, looking only at 33s and 32s. The 33s are always more expensive, often times twice as much as the 32s.
I cannot fathom how you would get data to draw such a conclusion. I believe nearly all the items in the 32 and 33 range are in a "shortage" where "the price simply isn't high enough." I don't know how you can compare "too low" and "too low". None of the #s you see are any relevance to comparing which is more. Until some people start posting some higher priced items in those level ranges and testing the market you cannot know.
You're right, I simply looked at the last 5 transaction amounts and didn't pay attention to the dates.
I'm not sure I understand you completely, but are you saying that anything around level 30-33 is ultra-rare nowadays and is going to fetch significantly higher than lvl 50s, regardless of the actual level? How much exactly, nobody knows, unless people start posting those in significant quantity.
What exactly is stopping people from locking their toons at 33 and farming TFs?
I'm not saying "much higher than the 50 prices" I'm saying "probably much higher than the last 5 history."
Gotcha, thanks.
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What exactly is stopping people from locking their toons at 33 and farming TFs?
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Nothing.I already have two level 50 Fire Blasters, though, and two level 49+ Force Fielders, so if one of those is valuable for a TF I'm likely to bring one of them.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Just a thought:
If you are going to take the random roll for your Merits, say in the 35-39 TF redside, and you get one of the junk recipes what is that worth?
Lets say you get a Force Feedback Recharge/Endurance level 50. It's totally worthless but NO one will spend 200 merits on that IO and then pay for the salvage. It has a potential value of 600K/merit.
If you multiple 600,000 x 20 merits (random roll cost) you get a value of 12 Million Infamy. NO ONE will pay 12 Million for a Force Feedback pool C recipe.
Shouldn't the community take the view that spending 5 Million or so for these garbage IO's a deal?
What about a Sting of the Manticore Tri Pool D....30 merits x 475,000 (40-45 level) = $14,250,000 Infamy. No one will pay that. What's the fair price? Excluding the obvious answer of whatever the market says it's worth.
Thoughts? What's a fair return on Random Roll investment for seeding the market with "garbage" recipes/IO's?
Noght 50 Scrapper Broadsword/Invulnerability
Fire Umbra 50 Brute Dark Melee/Fire Aura
Impulse Cry 50 Blaster Sonic/Energy
Internist 50 Mastermind Poison/Thugs
Ice Omega 50 Corrupter Ice/Radiation
Prickly Heat 50 Dominator Plant/Fire
Champion Server
Thanks for posting the links.
It's interesting to see that the LoTg: recharge (85mill) bears an opportunity cost of 16.985mil redside which translates back to ~33 merits.