TonyV
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Posts
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Joined
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Quote:So that's what this is about? You accuse us of lying, stealing from NCsoft, stealing from the community, and it all boils down to you perceiving that we've violated the Terms of Service for the game?Originally Posted by Another_Fan
So when you agree to the EULA you think your word is worthless and you can set it aside at will ?
Brilliant.
I'm glad to see that you're now the EULA police. But just to make my point yet again, even if you're right, breaking a contract is not illegal. If you break contract terms, at worst, you get sued by the entity that has suffered damages. If you do something illegal, you get prosecuted by a representative of the state, and at worst, you get put to death.
But because I don't want anyone coming away thinking that I encourage people to break EULAs all willy-nilly, here's the thing. There are a lot of parts of almost every EULA that are invalid; specifically, parts that violate various laws or that specify terms that are unenforceable. That's why EULAs contain a section that boil down to, "If any part of this agreement violates any laws or is unenforceable, we'll claim as much of it as we can, and all the other parts remain valid." That's how they work--because laws in different countries or even states or cities are different, they claim the sun, moon, stars, and sky, hoping that everyone just blindly believes that they have the right to stake such claims.
That's why I've repeatedly pointed out that reverse engineering is legal--it is specifically exempted from copyright and patent law as fair use. You know what other EULA has anti-reverse engineering clauses in it? The EULA for almost every other software package in existence (with the notable exception of open source software). Don't believe me? Here's a trivial example. Go look up the EULA for Microsoft Office. It's right there in Section 1, Subsection 7:
Yet for some weird reason, almost every word processor written in the past couple of decades has been able to open and save Word documents. How strange! How were they able to do that without violating Microsoft's EULA? I'll give you a hint: because they know what I know, that reverse engineering is legal in spite of what the contract says. NCsoft includes similar "but if I can't..." language in their Terms of Service; specifically, section 16e:Quote:You may not...reverse engineer, decompile or disassemble the software, except and only to the extent that applicable law expressly permits, despite this limitation...
Have you ever even read the Terms of Service? I have, several times. There are lots of goodies in there that are in no way enforceable. For example, did you know that NCsoft claims copyright ownership of all characters you've created in the game, even though U.S. law specifically says that copyright ownership can only be transferred through a signed document? The thing is that NCsoft legal knows that a lot of this stuff is unenforceable. If they were so sure that it wasn't unenforceable, why would they need that section at all? This is their way of saying, "Look, we know that a lot of this stuff doesn't apply to you, but the stuff that does, does." So why would they put it in there if it's unenforceable in the first place? Two reasons. First, because laws vary from place to place and there's a good chance that it is enforceable somewhere. Second, because they want people like you to think it's enforceable. I mean, if it's right there in the contract, then it has to be legal, right?Quote:If any provision of this agreement is determined to be unenforceable as a result of any proceeding...that provision shall be deemed to be modified to the extent necessary to allow it to be enforced to the extent permitted by law, or if it cannot be so modified, that provision will be severed and deleted from this agreement, and the remainder of the agreement will continue in effect.
Anyway, I'm not going to sit here lecturing you any longer about EULAs because 1) I don't believe you'd listen, and 2) you don't know what you're talking about. But like I said, reverse engineering is a specific fair use exemption to U.S. copyright/trademark law, and I do not believe that I am breaking the contract by doing so. Even if I were, the worst think that could happen is that NCsoft could seek damages, which they would have to prove that they've suffered as a result of the reverse engineering that has taken place. Even if they were so desperate to try such a thing (they're not), I believe I have enough evidence to show that that section of the contract is unenforceable and thus does not apply in the U.S. and that they have in fact benefited from community reverse engineering efforts (which would shoot a massive hole in any financial damages claims). I'm about 98% certain that any judge would laugh and toss out the lawsuit. (The other 2% involves the judge not laughing.)
But even with all that having been said, I have to reiterate: Really? All the sound and fury is about you being upset that we might be violating Terms of Service? Oh well, at least I'm glad you're dropping the "stealing IP!!! stealing money!!!" BS line you were feeding us.
I am curious though, have you ever talked about a football game with your buddies the day after watching it on television?
Katy bar the door, AF is BREEEEAKING THE LAWWWWWW!!!
So...
What else have you got? -
Quote:When someone accuses you of stealing money from the community, "I believe you're in error because..." isn't the kind of response that merits.Originally Posted by JohnRobey
...would it be possible when discussing matters where you disagree, even matters we each care passionately about, to refrain from saying things like "you're lying" (unless that's precisely what you want to say--and are prepared to prove it) and instead say something more along the lines of "I believe you're in error because... "
The point is that I'm really sick and tired that there are three or four trolls that post in every single thread that has anything remotely to do with keeping City of Heroes alive. They tell people they're foolish for keeping up their "false hope", they post "facts" and "reality" that are 180 degrees apart from what's actually going on, and then when anyone challenges them on their unbridled pessimism, they start just making sh*t up to reinforce their doom and gloom predictions and stances--stuff like Plan Z being a deliberate attempt to steal NCsoft's IP, stuff like the game was on its last leg with one foot in the grave, stuff like us wanting to steal people's money, stuff like taking a quote of me saying that at one point in September, things were looking good on selling the game and turned south, and presenting it out of context as if I were saying that this are going really well now.
I've been civil. In fact, the specific reason I don't post here very often any more is because I don't have a lot of time to waste defending our teams against the same tired old lies and misconceptions over and over and over again. But at this point, the same people are posting them, the same people who ought to know better. It's not just a simple misunderstanding. They are misrepresenting the truth with deliberate malice, which is why I said above that I don't want there to be any mistake about it, I'm calling out anyone who feels like they can justify any ludicrous claim of anything like we want to steal IP or we want to rob the community or we want to break the law. If you want to make such outlandish and offensive claims, then you'd better damn well be willing to back them up and I'm not going to worry too much about civility when I refute them. -
Quote:I defy you to find anything from NCsoft indicating that they are shutting down the game due to it not performing financially. There is nothing, because once again, this is a baseless assumption. In fact, NCsoft has explicitly said that this is a business decision related to their long term goals, never once mentioning any financial aspect of it. And before you try to weasel out with some "well, they wouldn't come right out and say it," yeah, actually they would.Originally Posted by Another_Fan
"The game was health[y]"
The game wasn't making enough to be viewed as a worthwhile investment by its owner.
Already addressed and you're lying about the context of this, the second time you've done so.Quote:Originally Posted by Another_Fan
"Things are going very well"
The game will go dark nov 30 it will not be live after that.
I'll get to the idiotic stealing accusation in a minute...Quote:Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Plan Z is on a path to take money from people for vapor ware. This is treated seriously despite Plan Zs first move was to start a process to steal NCsofts property.
Regarding taking money from people, only in the sense that any organization "takes money from people" for a product or service. Will it be vaporware? How about letting the people who are investing their money decide that? Why are you so afraid of us making the case that it won't be? How is it that you so nonchalantly ignore the fact that with the exception of really simple single-developer products, all software if vaporware when they ask for investment? Or are you under the mistaken impression that we've already started the crowd funding effort?
To date, I have asked for money for exactly one thing: The "Dinner's on Us!" drive for the developers. I've also encouraged people to take part in the Extra Life charity drive organized by Maressa and the Real World Hero charity drive organized by The Wentworths, causes I personally think are worthy.
Believe me, people are champing at the bit to kick off the crowdfunding campaign. The truth--you know, that little inconvenient thing you keep ignoring?--is that I have been actively dissuading such a campaign until we are further along and have done the due diligence to prove to people that this game will launch.
In fact, just the other day, I was in a conversation with some Plan Z folks and someone mentioned something about crowdfunding some tool or something. I'd have to dig through the logs to get the exact quotes, but I told them that I want to be especially careful about going to the crowdfunding well for that kind of thing, because the last thing I want people to think is that we're nickel and diming them on this stuff. I've asked what tools we need to create this game with the intention of either buying them outright or otherwise wrangling up the funding to get them, with crowdfunding their purchase as a last resort. And you know what the team's answer was? That so far, we're doing just fine with open source and/or freeware solutions and that spending money at this point is premature.
So yeah, with this talk as if we're out to fleece the community and steal their money, you can shove that right back where the sun don't shine, which is where you got it from to start with. If you don't think we can complete the project, then we don't want your money, plain and simple.
I also have to point out that in all of the years of running the Paragon Wiki and the Titan Network, although I've accepted donations, I have never engaged in fundraising efforts such as placing ads on the site(s), implying that the sites might be taken down if people don't contribute, or anything of the sort. Since day one, I've been clear that I will fund the sites as much as necessary out of my own pocket to ensure their continued existence and any donations will be used solely for the purpose of defraying hosting costs. And you know, I've never asked people to exude gratitude or anything for doing so. But for you to spout off that a project I'm involved in is out to rob people is not just personally offensive, it's sheer idiocy.
Another steaming pile of BS. I have repeatedly stated that I do not condone any illegal activities--to the point where it's actually been published in interviews with me:Quote:Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Save CoH's motto "This is what heroes do"
Apparently what heroes do is ignore any law they don't like and rob people if its convenient for them.
And it's not like this message is particularly new, I've made it explicitly clear for a long time that this is my take on the matter:Quote:"As for the immediate plans, I have repeatedly asked people to not do anything illegal; hacking servers, going out to NCsoft's offices in Seattle and slashing their tyres or anything stupid like that. I get the sense that people are angry and upset, so I've made it clear that there’s no need to cross the line and do illegal things."
So what specific law do you think we're ignoring? The law against reverse engineering? I hate to jerk you back to the real world like this, but that law doesn't exist because reverse engineering is legal. Not only legal, but it is explicitly a fair use exemption to copyright and patent law. Or is it the law against copyright/trademark infringement? Put up or shut up. You link any reference to me indicating that we're going to infringe on NCsoft's IP. I can tell you ahead of time, you can't because I've consistently said the exact opposite. I've taken very deliberate pains to ensure that none of our planning involves IP infringement. Here's the latest of many times I've addressed the issue specifically.Quote:I also want to be crystal clear that these are not threats. I have always said and will continue to say that I will be intolerant of any illegal activities, including activities intended to physically intimidate anyone or deny service to resources such as game servers.
So yeah, remind me again which law don't I like, which ones I'm ignoring and/or encouraging other people to ignore? How do you think we're robbing people? And be specific, because make no mistake: I'm calling you out on this. Don't give me this "someone said something at some point" BS. I want to know when I have ever asked or encouraged someone to violate the law.
Everything you've spouted off here about is either a blatant lie, gross exaggeration, or baseless accusation that, more often than not, are the exact opposite of what people involved with SaveCoH, the Titan Network, and/or Plan Z have been saying. Either you are just so grossly out of touch with reality that you truly have no grasp at all what is going on, or you are trolling these forums in a deliberate attempt to tear down the reputations of people who are really nice, motivated, capable people. Either way, I'm happy to show people with crystal clarity just how wrong and trollish you are.
So please, go on, what else have you got? I actually have the luxury of a little bit of time this afternoon to shoot down your next round of crap. -
Quote:I used your friggin' numbers. That was my point: they're pure unadulterated BS. So if you want to complain about them being completely unrealistic, you'll get nothing but a hell yeah from me, and I'm glad we agree that the numbers you put forward came from whence the sun don't shine.Originally Posted by Another_Fan
You take the absolute maximum number of subscriptions assume everyone was buying at the absolute cheapest rate and never buying anything from the store, take the lowest number in my range estimate of 15%-20%. You get an unreasonable result.
This is reality.Quote:The actual peak number of subscribers was around 194,000 just after the launch of City of Villains in October 2006, unless you believe that it's been higher since 3Q 2008 when NCsoft stopped reporting subscription numbers, which I think it's safe to say it hasn't.
More realistically, the subscriber numbers are probably somewhere in the 80k - 100k range, which is, using the conservative estimate, around 41% of its peak subscriber rate. (Using the optimistic estimate, it's more like 51.5%. Realistically, it's probably somewhere in between those extremes.) Given that a lot of sales are coming off of microtransactions, that there are a lot more players than subscribers now, and that it is now six and a half years after that peak, that's actually a very good retention rate, the kind that would make most gaming companies extremely jealous. -
Quote:No, but let's do the math. $800k divided by 10 is 80k subscriptions. For mathematical purposes of putting an absolute upper limit on subscriptions, your claim that that is "15% of your peak subs" means that the peak number of subscriptions would be somewhere around 533,000. The actual peak number of subscribers was around 194,000 just after the launch of City of Villains in October 2006, unless you believe that it's been higher since 3Q 2008 when NCsoft stopped reporting subscription numbers, which I think it's safe to say it hasn't.Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Yeah thats because I can't divide 800k by 10 and come up with the absolute maximum number of vip subs they had.
So... You're lying. Or at the very least, you're grossly exaggerating. More realistically, the subscriber numbers are probably somewhere in the 80k - 100k range, which is, using the conservative estimate, around 41% of its peak subscriber rate. (Using the optimistic estimate, it's more like 51.5%. Realistically, it's probably somewhere in between those extremes.) Given that a lot of sales are coming off of microtransactions, that there are a lot more players than subscribers now, and that it is now six and a half years after that peak, that's actually a very good retention rate, the kind that would make most gaming companies extremely jealous. -
Quote:That's not what I said, and even if you post 5000 pixel square images, it doesn't make you less lying by portraying what I said as meaning that. What I said was that things were going well, and at the time, they were. Paragon Studios was in negotiations with NCsoft to acquire the rights to City of Heroes, and there were some people within NCsoft that wanted to see that happen, who were receptive to a deal and impressed by our positive message supporting such a deal. Unfortunately, the elements within the company that didn't want to let go of the IP (and yes, I know a specific name of who it is, the person who shot down our chances at the eleventh hour) won that battle, thus we are where we are.Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Yes it's doubleplusgood they are restructuring the game NOV 30
But please, don't let what I actually said get in the way of your strawman.
...And this is where we get to the part here you're just making stuff up out of your butt. The truth is threefold: 1) You have no clue how many VIP subscribers City of Heroes had because neither Paragon Studios nor NCsoft release those numbers. You are making assumptions based on one line item in an investor report that has little to do with subscriptions, peak or otherwise. And 2) you are completely ignoring that a lot of revenue came from sources other than VIP subscriptions. Or maybe you haven't been paying attention since before June 2011. Last, but not least, 3) dropoffs in subscriptions are actually par for the course for an 8.5-year-old game. This in no way implies that the game isn't profitable or still very successful. It only means that the game had an exceptionally good launch, which City of Heroes (or more specifically, City of Villains, which was when the game hit its peak subscription rate) in fact did.Quote:Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Having less than 15% of your peak subs is once again doubleplusgood.
So... yeah. Whatever deception you keep claiming incorrectly is being propagated on the community, not only are you wrong, but you're "doubleplus" guilty of much worse. -
Quote:No offense, but by your standards, everything seems to be trollbait on these forums these days. There appear to be a few trolls that have decided that they now have free reign to go around posting in every thread. It's the old shout your message enough times, and maybe people will start believing it strategy.Originally Posted by Ogi
No offense, but with the forums in the state they are in, if it doesn't come from a red name it's either trollbait or will devolve into a trollfest.
Make no mistake, though; that does not make the posts "trollbait". It just means that there are trolls.
As someone who has been accused several times of spreading "false hope", I can tell you that what is really being spread is false pessimism. I have had one-on-one conversations with several former Paragon Staffers, and I can't tell you how many times I have seen posts from the trolls here that have conveyed nothing but doom and gloom when, in fact, things were going pretty well.Quote:Originally Posted by Ogi
You may have only the best intentions or you may get your jollies griefing other people but others have spread the same obfuscated message and they have all been false hopes.
They've been talking about how miserably the game was doing when I've gotten firsthand accounts from people who actually know the numbers telling me that the game was doing exceptionally well, much better than most people think. They've been telling me how NCsoft would never negotiate even as I was hearing from people who were involved in the negotiations. They've been stating with no justification whatsoever that things I've been saying are outright false based only on how they feel about the situation.
I have worked my butt off for this community over the years. I have poured literally thousands of dollars and thousands of hours into the fan sites. I have gotten a lot of praise (which I have immensely appreciated), but I've also been subject to a lot of crap that no one should have to put up with. I am in no way saying that whatever I say should be taken as blind truth, because I am fully aware and acknowledge that I have an agenda and am biased in matters relating to saving City of Heroes.
But I would like to think that I've built up enough of a reputation of trustworthiness that it's not immediately rejected as "false hope" or "wishful thinking". Like anyone who's human, I'm not infallible, but I've never lied to the community. If I say I've talked to someone who has inside knowledge of the situation, I would never just make something like that up right outta my butt. For one thing, I'd have moral qualms against doing such a thing. For another, all it would take is one redname post to make me lose pretty much any iota of credibility I've built up.
So you know, if you want to believe Fansy, believe Fansy. I don't know if he's making this up, but I will say that even if he is, it's plausible enough that I wouldn't just dismiss it outright. If you don't want to believe Fansy, don't believe him. Or me either, I don't care. But these repeated accusations of raising "false hope" are complete rubbish. As someone wisely pointed out in another thread a long time ago, there is no such thing as false hope, only hope that doesn't come to fruition. Hope is never not worth having, though expectations may sometimes have to be tempered.
At this point, believing that the servers won't be shut down on November 30 is wildly overoptimistic. I've conveyed this in as honest and up-front manner as I know how. This wasn't always the case, and at one point back in mid-September, I thought we stood a good chance of a deal being worked out that would mean the servers didn't shut down. As what happens sometimes, that deal fell through.
But to not have any hope that City of Heroes will never survive somehow is wildly overpessimistic, and anyone who tries to tell us that that is the "reality" of the situation is lying much worse than anyone who has posted a message like Fansy's, because I can tell you, I have seen repeated posts from them outright lying about the state of affairs before. They are the ones making up what they claim is "reality" right outta their butts, not us. You need to realize that this is how they get their jollies, how they are griefing the forums by giving people false hopelessness.
Fansy, I haven't heard this particular bit of news, but I do remain optimistic and I hope it comes to pass. Don't let the haters get to you. -
Quote:I think I just squeed a little bit.Originally Posted by MetalBritches
The "proof" that they are unicorns...
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Quote:Dude, that's some pretty hard-core dedication to the game. Looks awesome!Originally Posted by Shiver_EU
http://i.imgur.com/x8aiB.jpg
Original piece designed by Paragon Studios' concept artist Carolina Tello. Tattoo by Andrew Dennis at New Image, UK. -
Quote:For what it's worth, I don't have any particular animosity against ArenaNet or against Guild Wars 2. They seem like nice enough people, and they undoubtedly work very hard on the game to make it as fun as possible for its community.Originally Posted by Solo_One
I understand the anti-NCsoft sentiment around here but I felt like I had to relate how much fun this game is. I try to look at it as an Arenanet game more than an NCsoft game. If you buy it once there is no further money you'd need to give them to enjoy everything in the game so you can minimize any sort of guilt you might feel betraying paragon studios or whatever.
The problem, however, is that ArenaNet is beholden to NCsoft just as Paragon Studios was. There's absolutely nothing stopping NCsoft from pulling the rug out from under them just like they did Paragon Studios. Indeed, if I'm right, this is their ultimate destiny because I'm convinced that NCsoft's actions with Paragon Studios is directly related to a broader effort to eventually bring all development efforts back home to Korea and focus almost exclusively on Asian gaming markets. Speculation, yes, but given what they've been systematically doing with their Western titles so far, I don't think I'm going that far out on a limb. If I worked for ArenaNet--or especially if I worked for Carbine--I'd watch my back and prepare for another shutdown.
The thing is, when I play an MMORPG, I'm not just looking for fun one-off events. The nature of the genre is such that I like investing a lot of time and effort into my characters, their stories, making friends, and contributing to building the world in which I'm spending a lot of time. If I were looking for fun one-off events, I wouldn't invest money into an MMORPG, I'd just go out on Steam or somewhere and buy their new indie game-of-the-month to play for a while, have fun, and then move on to something else.
So while I don't dispute anything you say, and I don't doubt that the Halloween event in Guild Wars 2 is probably a trip, I just don't trust NCsoft enough that if I buy the game and start playing it and, like I do with most MMORPGs I stick with, I invest my time and energy into the game, it will still be there for me in a few years. So thanks, but no thanks. And although I'm skeptical that they will, I genuinely do hope that ArenaNet fares better than Paragon Studios in the long run. No studio deserves to pour their heart and soul into something like that and have it ripped away from them and denied to them like that. I know they'll move on to other projects, but having been a developer in the past, I'd never wish that on anyone. -
Quote:Ogi wins.Originally Posted by Ogi
When there are no life boats (after the captain has graciously given us passengers a few hours to live after purposefully hitting an iceberg) arguing about travel insurance is as valid as anything else.
And with the Post of the Beast, no less. -
Can someone please point me to where developing an emulator is illegal? I keep seeing that word tossed around, and it's pure BS.
What would be illegal is if we developed software that infringed upon NCsoft's intellectual property. What would be illegal is if we started distributing the game client without a license. I have repeatedly denied any such intention to the point where I'm blue in the face. That's not happening. Get over it. The more people talk about how what we or anyone else working on an emulator is illegal, the more foolish they sound. If you really think I'm doing something illegal then either put up or shut up--call the cops on me (because I'm doing something illegal!) and be done with it, or I don't want to hear any more talk about it.
What is perfectly legal is reverse engineering the protocols that the server implements. This isn't just hypothetical, it is well established. It is no different than, for example, writing a server that emulates Microsoft Exchange to an Outlook client. Not only do those exist, but several notable companies are right this moment openly operating within the U.S. Google it, then come back and explain to me how they've been able to miraculously avoid the wrath of our justice system while so blatantly doing such illegal things.
At worst, reverse engineering the server is breaking the Terms of Service. Breaking a click-through Terms of Service document is not illegal. If an emulator is released and NCsoft decides in its insanity that it has somehow suffered financial damage from it, they are free to file a civil lawsuit against whomever does it and to try to recoup those losses by trying to convince a judge and/or jury that the $0 they would have made is greater than the $0 they're making with an emulator being out there. But the notion that the police will come arrest you (which is what happens when you do illegal things) or a DA will show up at your house to force you to stop is ludicrous. In the meantime, if NCsoft feels I'm violating their Terms of Service, they are free to engage in the recourse of cutting off my service to the ga Oh wait. That's right.
Reverse engineering the server is legal. Period. End of story. Nobody wants to do this, but I've shelled out a lot of money for the game, I have the client legally installed on my computer, and if reverse engineering the server is the only way I can continue using the software I've paid good money for, then I will support any such efforts underway. Again, if you think this is illegal, then you really need to stop gabbing here and read up on some cases that deal with reverse engineering so that next time you post, you will be more educated and not stating things that are patently false.
Meanwhile, NCsoft has within itself the power for me to voluntarily stop encouraging efforts to reverse engineer the server; in fact, I'd voluntarily encourage everyone else to stop encouraging it as well. All they have to do is to provide some means by which I can continue using the software I've paid good money for. If they'd sell the game, then it would be a moot point. If they don't and lo and behold someone implements a game server that's compatible with the client, then 1) I don't see what difference that makes to them since it's not going to financially impact them either way, and 2) it's their own durn fault for effectively disabling my software by shutting down their servers and forcing me to take measures to use what I've paid for. I have no sympathy for them, because they are the ones who are making the decisions here, they are the ones who are instigating these measures, not the players or the fans of the game.
For weeks, we played nice and tried to take the high road. Reverse engineering was mentioned, but I explicitly stated that it was only an option at some indeterminate point in the future, reserved for if and when we feel that there are no other options left for us to preserve the game. Well, NCsoft pretty much made it explicitly clear to us that it had "exhausted all options" to preserve the game, so here we are. At this point, I have given up any realistic hope that NCsoft will take any further steps to voluntarily sell or otherwise continue operation of City of Heroes, so to be blunt, I really don't give a rat's *** if someone reverse engineering the server hurts NCsoft's feelings or not. I'm not concerned one bit that this will negatively impact any potential negotiations with them because that time is way past. They've had months of golden opportunities to save face and extract themselves from this situation. They could have taken actions for this situation to be win-win-win for us, themselves, and Paragon Studios, but instead they chose to kill Paragon Studios (in the process deliberately and needlessly jeopardizing the livelihoods of 80+ people), lie to us, and make an incredibly stupid public relations misstep. So yeah, I'm not too concerned about what they think. They obviously do not have our interest in mind in these decisions; I'll be damned if I continue kowtowing to a company that cares so little about our community.
If they want to talk, they have my phone number and e-mail address. I'm more than willing to hear them out but I'm done kissing up. They blew their opportunity to have me grovelling to them, offering whatever concessions they probably would have asked for. At this point, they'll have to make it worth my time, not the other way around. Personally, I doubt the company's financial stability, so I figure that we might have a decent chance to get City of Heroes back at fire sale prices when they have a significant change in management or when their company is stripped of its assets and sold off to someone else. Until then, we've got a lot of work to do. -
Quote:That stuff Hyperstrike was going to say? Yeah, that goes for me, too.Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
Just going to avoid expressing myself on this as I don't want the word filter to blow up...
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I logged in kind of late to it, but Tim "Black Scorpion" Sweeny, Hosun "Black Pebble" Lee, Jesse "Hit Streak" Lawrence, Matt "Positron" Miller, and Positot stopped by to field questions. I got the feeling that it was mostly a Loregasm Live! kind of day, with them answering questions for the whole session. The recording should be up on Twitch.tv shortly if it's not already.
Oh, and Black Pebble wore an AP33 t-shirt. That was pretty durn awesome. -
Quote:The exchange rate is almost completely irrelevant, unless you're trying to do something like extrapolate the number of subscribers over time. But for point-in-time comparisons, it wouldn't really matter if the exchange rate varied wildly--it would affect both Paragon Studios and ArenaNet the same way.Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Since both ArenaNet and Paragon are/were American studios both Pebblebrook and I converted each quarter from Korean Won to US dollars using the exchange rate during that period. As you can see in Pebblebrook's list of exchange rates, it varied quite a bit during those 5 years so you can't simply sum the KrW amounts and apply the current exchange rate to the difference.
Exchange rates are also double-edged swords. If the USD is strong against the KRW, then administrative expenses are higher--paying the salaries of employees--because it takes more KRW to equal each USD you're on the hook for paying. However, sales and subscription income is also higher, since each USD paid to NCsoft is worth more KRW. And, of course, vice versa. Without knowing the breakdown of those expenses--and that is closely guarded financial information that companies do not like people knowing--it's impossible to say how much or how little the effect of currency exchange had on revenue or expenses.
The truth of the matter is that given NCsoft's medium size, they probably don't do much actual currency exchange. Subscription and sales money in USD is probably kept in USD to pay expenses incurred in the United States, while subscription and sales money in KRW is probably kept in Korea to pay salaries and administrative expenses there. If they were Microsoft or Apple or someone like that, then I'd imagine that they'd have a treasury department dedicated to managing monetary transfers at ideal exchange rates, but as it is, I strongly suspect that they just take the numbers given to them, convert them to KRW at the end of the fiscal quarter, and plop them in the IR reports. If you're looking to extrapolate some absolute number (for example, number of subscribers), then this would be applicable. But to compare two games on a quarter-by-quarter basis, it comes out in the wash.
Sure you can! Who keeps telling you that? It's easy, and that's why you have those reports where everything is rolled up, so that you can see at a glance which game is doing better, no matter what respective business model it uses. In fact, comparing games that use different models is one of THE main reasons you would analyze such reports.Quote:Originally Posted by Father Xmas
And I still disagree with you. You can't compare the two games since their income models are so different.
Looking at the graph, you can tell that City of Heroes's business model provides for better long-term stable income, whereas Guild Wars's business model tends to support the kind of churn-and-burn title that is reflected in its curve jumping up initially and then plateauing.
If I were a business wonk at NCsoft, first of all, I would have told them NOT to kill City of Heroes, because that's the kind of game we'd want--the kind that generates money over the long run. But apparently, someone in the company has decided that they'd rather ditch long-term profits and go for the quick money instead--games that do really well initially, and they they can kill them off before the revenue plateaus and move on to something else. -
That's why I personally am so frustrated over this. It's not that NCsoft made a business decision that City of Heroes isn't in its long term future plans. I mean, I think they're crazy for that, but still, that's their prerogative.
It's because we still have a thriving player base, a developer team that wanted very badly to continue working on the game, together making up an extremely great community. There were options available in which everyone could win, but NCsoft deliberately chose a path that doesn't benefit them (I would argue actually harms their reputation significantly) and that would likely destroy a community in the process.
Can NCsoft do that? I'm not disputing the legalities of it. But is it ethical? My personal opinion is that no, it's not. They should have tried to come to an agreement in which everyone could have won. But now, instead of remembering them as a company willing to save its community, I remember it as a company that didn't care and that laid off 80+ hardworking, dedicated people. -
Quote:You're right, I had the starting number off. Here's the updated chart, and the data source, which came from the IR documents posted by NCsoft. I redid it in Google Docs so that I could share it publicly; feel free to double-check the numbers:Originally Posted by Father Xmas
The most noticeable difference between our numbers and yours is the very first quarter where GW earned more than twice than CoH Q3 2007. Funny that you started with Q3 2007 since that was when the last GW expansion came out.
Still, a pretty healthy 6.77%--almost US$5.27 million--more than Guild Wars, and again, more importantly, the slope of our line is pretty steady, whereas the slope of Guild Wars's line is tapering off. (And though my starting number was off, the shape of the line is identical; it's just vertically shifted a little higher than in the original picture.)
I picked 3Q 2007 not because of any historical landmark or anything in particular going on within the respective games; truth is, I don't keep up with what's going on in Guild Wars. It was picked merely because anything older than five years is pretty irrelevant in trying to establish any kind of trend. Some would argue that a more recent time span might be even more representative; I picked what I felt was a reasonable compromise.
And yes, I still stand by my earlier statements. It's pretty clear what the trends are and what they were, and everything I said is still applicable. NCsoft seems to prefer games that launch with a bang, run a few years, and then peter out over games that are steady income earners over a long course of time. Sorry communities, it's time to move on to the next big bang. That kind of philosophy just isn't conducive to gamers like me, who prefer games that we think will be around for a while, games that we feel are worth pouring a lot of time, effort, and money into. That's why I doubt there will never be, for example, another Paragon Wiki-type site or Titan Network-type project for an NCsoft game, and I think that's a shame. -
Quote:You keep showing that chart, and on the surface, it looks very compelling. So... I made my own!Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Here's the chart of cummulative revenue over time of CoH (blue) and GW (red)
This is the same data, except that instead of a cumulative since the beginning of recorded time, I've cut it to just the past five years. The reason why is because I don't dispute that Guild Wars had a pretty big initial launch. However, my contention has always been that City of Heroes has a much more stable income. So with no further ado, a cumulative revenue comparison between City of Heroes and Guild Wars for the past five years:
Final verdict:
91.865 billion KRW for City of Heroes
78.432 billion KRW for Guild Wars
In the past five years, City of Heroes has brought in approximately 17.1% more revenue than Guild Wars, or around $12 million at today's current exchange rate (which has remained more-or-less steady over the past five years within normal fluctuations).
Now I know you'll probably bring up that maintaining the staff of City of Heroes is probably more expensive, and to some degree you might be right. But again, you're neglecting that a lot of the staff of Paragon Studios has not been dedicated to City of Heroes for quite a while, and of the ones who were, they didn't really need them to keep the game running. If NCsoft wanted to make City of Heroes more profitable in the short term (with risk to the long-term profitability), they could have done so, and they had a LOT more leeway in which to make cuts than they do with Guild Wars.
As for why City of Heroes didn't take off like Guild Wars did, you have to consider the City of Heroes was released in April 2004. That was back when MMORPGs were still in the process of gaining ground. You had games like Everquest, Ultima Online, and a few other minor players, but the genre only really gained massive popularity after Blizzard threw a kazillion dollars into marketing campaigns for World of Warcraft, which wasn't released until November 2004. Guild Wars came along in April 2005, back when MMORPGs were considered EXTREMELY hot thanks to the awesome success of WoW. I honestly believe that it benefited greatly from the fortuitous timing of its release, but that after a couple of years, the fantasy genre had considerably dried up, thus its greatly reduced year-over-year earnings. City of Heroes, being in a bit of a niche genre, didn't suffer as badly, thus why in 2Q 2008 it overtook Guild Wars in revenue, and has consistently outperformed it--both in monthly revenue and in cumulative revenue--ever since.
I still stand by my claim that City of Heroes has been significantly outperforming Guild Wars. Further, I still stand by my claim that City of Heroes has been and still was very profitable to NCsoft, and that the profits were being funneled into other projects. In short, we did more to fund Guild Wars 2's development than Guild Wars did. And you know, I don't even mind so much--that's how game publishers work. But then to turn around and kick us to the curb, yeah. THAT has me riled up. -
Quote:Okay, I've been looking over the pictures in that gallery, and that is AWESOME!!! Man, he got pictures of everybody holding torches! This is such an awesome effort, and it looks friggin' fantastic!Originally Posted by Todogut
Graphite's New York Comic Con 2012 Gallery
Statesman and Spidey carrying the torch for City of Heroes -
Quote:Dude, that's awesome!Originally Posted by Todogut
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Quote:I see this a lot, and I have to point out that around half of that 80+ staff were working on an entirely new game. That means that the 80+ staff were not all operational expenses related directly to City of Heroes. As such, it most certainly can be possible that the game was making a multi-million dollar profit and that a lot of that profit was being reinvested into the company in the form of development of future products.Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Lets take this quote from his piece.
First, NCSoft's financial records indicated that game had revenues, as in income not profit, of only $10-11 million over the last 12 months. Factor in a staff of 80 at California salaries and their is no way the game could have been making a "multi-million dollar current profit".
I think this point is very important, because I keep seeing people questioning City of Heroes's profitability. To be blunt, the numbers that we're getting from the investor report can be fudged in a lot of ways--almost all of them perfectly legal--to tell just about any kind of story. Although I can't prove this, I highly suspect that some shared expenses for things related to non-City of Heroes games were being foisted upon City of Heroes to make other games that NCsoft poured craptons of money into look better, things like marketing expenses, legal expenses, accounting expenses, etc. If you don't believe that, fair enough; like I said, that's my opinion. It's not blatant enough to be considered "cooking the books," but it is enough that it has been dragging down City of Heroes's numbers (and thus perceived financial performance) to make NCsoft-exclusive efforts look better than they actually are.
That aside though, City of Heroes was making enough money to support 1) maintenance and upkeep of the game itself, 2) further development on the game, as evidenced by the continual updates it was receiving, 3) development of a completely new game, and 4) at least some profit that was being sent back to NCsoft for further development on their projects. Which projects? Well, I can say this: since 2Q 2008, even using NCsoft's reported numbers, Guild Wars has been consistently underperforming City of Heroes for all but one financial quarter in 2010. Many times, City of Heroes earned two or three times as much in sales than Guild Wars. In 2Q 2012, Guild Wars pulld in about 1.28 trillion KRW, City of Heroes pulled in 2.86 trillion, this on the even of Guild Wars 2 launching. Yet here we are today, Guild Wars with a shiny new sequel, City of Heroes shutting down and all of its staff laid off.
SOMETHING doesn't add up here. I might never be able to prove it, and you might not believe it, but I personally believe that something fishy is going on inside the halls of NCsoft that we're not privy to, an ulterior motive at work. Something has changed the past few years, something I can't put my finger on, but something that I think isn't in the company's best interest. Unlike how I felt when the game launched, it's pretty obvious to me that gaming communities aren't exactly a priority at NCsoft now. That's not to say that sometimes they don't luck out with studios that provide awesome community relations folks like ours did and that sometimes we even get good GM support like we did. But in the big picture, I feel like NCsoft just doesn't know how to treat its customers well, and I for one won't be supporting their games in the future. Right now, it seems that those "long term goals" they referred to are to churn out a new shiny every couple of years or so, let it run for a little while, then burn it down and move on to something else. As a gamer, I have to say no thank you. -
What are you doing? You're supposed to be listening to this, the Wentworths are on Back To Basics radio tonight--right now, in fact!
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Quinch, I couldn't have said it better myself, and I really appreciate you taking the time to write down and expressing your thoughts.
I just wish that we can jar the people at NCsoft out of this protectionist mode of thinking, "Why would we sell the rights to City of Heroes?" and into the much braver and noble mode of thinking, "Why not sell the rights to City of Heroes?" In NCsoft's Vision Statement, they say:
Quote:Funny enough, as a community, we are living up to these principles. Paragon Studios loved what they were doing, and always did their best no matter what.Mission
To make people in this world happier.
The ultimate mission of NCSOFT is to make each and every one on earth happier. That is, to make people's lives more enjoyable.
...
Spirit
Do the right thing!
Do not hesitate doing what is right. Be brave at carrying out what we believe is right into practice.
Core Value
Integrity: Stick to principles, and be honest in any circumstances.
Passion: Love what you are doing, and leave no regret by always doing the best.
Never-ending Change: Constantly try to excel yourself, and never stop making progress.
Come on, NCsoft. You helped to build this community. You have seen our e-mails, our letters, our masks and capes, the charity we have raised, and our loyalty and dedication to your company over the years. You know what the right thing to do here is. Please live up to the ideals you express in your vision statement. You have the power to kill City of Heroes forever, but does that live up to making people happier? Does that live up to excelling and making progress? Is that a sign of a firm and resilient company?
I know that company mission statements are all too often just words they trot out to impress the public. I ask that you please not just let these be pretty words, that you actually put them into practice. Be brave at carrying out what is right into practice. -
Hey, are any of you going to New York Comic Con? If so, would you be willing to dedicate a few hours to helping us out? If so, please post a message in that forum and/or drop me a PM here.
There are also a bunch of other conventions coming up, including:
October 11, 12, 13, 14: New York Comic Con (New York City, New York)
October 13, 14: Alternative Press Expo (San Francisco, California)
October 19, 20, 21: Dallas Comic Con Fan Days (Dallas, Texas)
October 26, 27, 28: Wizard World Comic Con (Austin, Texas)
October 26, 27, 28: Hal-Con (Halifax, Nova Scotia)
November 1, 2, 3, 4: Youmacon 2012 (Detroit, Michigan)
November 3, 4: Long Beach Comic & Horror Con (Long Beach, California)
November 18: So Cal Comic Con (Oceanside, California)
If you'd be willing to help out at those, let me know. I'd like to help get some flyers (the kind you had out, not the kind that take you to mission doors) in front of people. -
Quote:I know, I didn't mean literally mathematically zero. I meant that compared to what it's worth now, it's relatively worthless. Also, I chose the words "earning exactly KRW 0" carefully. Regardless of what it's worth on paper, it's not generating any income and it could be by selling it. Could they develop a City of Heroes iPhone app at some point? Meh, maybe. But if they're going to do that, I'm pretty sure that the net profit would be much higher to sell City of Heroes now and use new IP for their app, since the money that they're not getting from City of Heroes now also represents lost opportunity cost.Originally Posted by SpyralPegacyon
Take this for what its worth, coming from a second level IT guy for a major national retailer with a very dusty accounting minor: Just because the property isn't earning doesn't make it worthless. Its still an asset, it still has value as part of NCSoft's portfolio. They have accountants checking and re-checking their spreadsheets to make their best guesstimate as to what the value of the property is. Word was my own company sat on vacant lots for years with no intent to build or sell, but they were still assets.
Games aren't really like physical assets like an empty lot. As time goes on with no news or releases, the value deteriorates very quickly.
I don't dispute that. But if they raise that value arbitrarily so high or put so many legal bombs in it so that no one can practically buy it and then claim that "all possibilities are exhausted," I find that extremely disingenuous. I'm calling them out on this point, because it seems to me that they want to have it both ways, and they can't.Quote:Originally Posted by SpyralPegacyon
Right now, though, the property is in their hands, which means that - for good or ill - they get to decide its value.
P.S. Please don't mistake my post as fussing at you.
I'm just elucidating on my explication. I'm not disputing that on the books, NCsoft will probably show some crazy made-up number that City of Heroes is "worth" for years to come; I'm just saying that they know the real score, what it's actually worth, not just what they're trying to use to impress the investors.
