Scrapper vs Brutes.
By
4c3Player,
Posted on: 2012-07-28 19:01 in Archetypes and Powers General Discussion
Critical hits are separate from to-hit rolls.
NeverDark's math is correct. Yes, it's possible to not get a crit for however many attacks in a row. But it is progressively less likely as the number of attacks increases. 1% is way far from impossible, and in a game with thousands of players running hundreds of missions, it will happen many times. But the times the unlikely thing happens will be far outnumbered by the times it doesn't happen.
The odds of a specific recipe dropping from a given enemy are far less than 1 in 362. I'm not sure where the 1 in 362 number you've cited comes from - maybe the odds of getting the specific recipe once the system rolls a rare drop? - but you have to multiply those odds by the odds of getting a rare recipe in the first place. Since the recipe is in the Random Rare Rolls category, it only even has a chance to drop from bosses, and it's a small chance to get a rare recipe from a boss in the first place, before even considering whether it's the specific recipe you want.
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came from paragonwiki.com where in the past people have said is basically "the bible" when it come to this type of stuff. |
Originally Posted by Hopeling
Critical hits are separate from to-hit rolls.
NeverDark's math is correct. Yes, it's possible to not get a crit for however many attacks in a row. But it is progressively less likely as the number of attacks increases. 1% is way far from impossible, and in a game with thousands of players running hundreds of missions, it will happen many times. But the times the unlikely thing happens will be far outnumbered by the times it doesn't happen. The odds of a specific recipe dropping from a given enemy are far less than 1 in 362. I'm not sure where the 1 in 362 number you've cited comes from - maybe the odds of getting the specific recipe once the system rolls a rare drop? - but you have to multiply those odds by the odds of getting a rare recipe in the first place. Since the recipe is in the Random Rare Rolls category, it only even has a chance to drop from bosses, and it's a small chance to get a rare recipe from a boss in the first place, before even considering whether it's the specific recipe you want. |
Alright so they are separate from hit rolls. So how does the game decide when to hit crit or not and what method does it use? Sounds like a casino game to me. The more you play regardless how many times you lose, it mean the chance of winning increases after each loss? I've seen plenty people go into financial ruin with that though process.
well if one guy is getting more crits than he can count on his hands and toes, or about at least 20 crits out of the 90 attacks, assuming he has all digits, he is critting at least 22% of the time, way above the 5% base chance. but assuming he can count a little bit beyond the digits, that means he might even be critting 25-30% of the time. and if that is not unheard of, off 5% and probably many more people hit around that per mish, then dont see whay hitting one crit is so unfounded if overall it probably balance out to 5% of hits crits overall in this game.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard.  Never change, E_L! |
This page? http://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Random_R...ipe_Drop_Rates
Note what the table is a table of, though: it's 1 in 362 random rare recipe rolls, not 1 in 362 enemies. Random rare recipe rolls come mostly from merits; you get one of those recipes only occasionally from boss defeats, and never at all from minions or lieutenants. And even if you defeat enough bosses to get 362 recipes from that category, you'd still have a (361/362)^362 = ~37% chance to not get the one you want.
So, not getting the specific rare recipe you want as a drop, even after thousands of enemies defeated, is not bad luck at all. It's completely normal and expected. I've gotten lots of various cool drops over the years (and lots of long periods of getting nothing decent), but can't remember the last time I got a recipe I specifically needed.
Anyway. The game generates a random number and uses it to decide whether to crit or not. But it generates another random number, it doesn't just re-use your hit roll. (If it did, every attack you managed to land on an Eluding Paragon Protector would be a crit, and from observation that's clearly not true.) It would indeed be erroneous to think the odds increase with each non-crit. 5% is 5%, no matter how many crits or non-crits you got before it: it's incorrect to get 19 non-crits with a 5% chance and say "aha, my next attack is guaranteed to crit!" Each roll is an independent event; past failures (or successes) do not affect future probabilities.
But, you CAN say "I am making 400 attacks with a 5% crit chance; I expect to see about 20 crits among those 400 attacks". It's entirely possible that you could make all 400 attacks and get zero crits (or 400!), although not likely, and regardless of how many crits you get, your odds of getting a crit on the 401st attack are still 5%.
As to why SinisterDirge gets more crits per mission - probably because he runs at x8, as he said. That means he's throwing way, way more than 90 attacks in a mission.
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You're correct that there isn't a guaranteed crit. However, with 90 attacks on minions with your lesser (not 15%) powers, as already stated, there's a .95^90 approximately 1% chance of getting no criticals. There's therefore a 99% chance of getting 1 or more criticals. The average should be 5% * 90 = 4.5 criticals. So now you get at least some idea of the distribution of the bell curve. 1% chance of no criticals, average of 4-5 criticals. In the real world, with a 15% attack and lieutenants, your chance of no criticals would be lower and your average number of criticals would be higher.|
Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
Just because you throw and hit 90 attacks, doesnt mean there is a gurantee crit in there.
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But I don't know why we're arguing basic probability and statistics with you when you can either keep your damage window data or run Herostats and actually demonstrate your critical rate.
As for your Touch of the Nictus example, you don't get a recipe drop every mob. I honestly don't know what the chance is. Let's see, when I'm farming, maybe I'm killing 300 enemies, and I probably get something like 10 recipes, just guessing wildly. So if you've killed 9000 enemies, we might expect about 300 recipes to have dropped. If you're right that Touch of Nictus: Chance for Negative Energy Damage is a 1/362 for recipe drops, and you've had 300 recipes drop, then your chance of having NOT gotten it is (361/362)^300 = 44%. So it isn't at all surprising that you have not seen that exact recipe. It wouldn't be surprising if you HAD gotten it either. It's pretty much a coin flip. (Edit: And it sounds like the chance of getting this particular recipe is dramatically lower for just grinding through enemies.)
Anyway, you appear to not understand the math we're using, but hopefully I can explain it.
Flip a coin. What's the chance of getting heads? 50%, right?
Flip it again. There are now four possible outcomes for the two flips, all with equal probability of having happened. Heads heads, heads tails, tails heads and tails tails. What are the chances of getting two heads in a row, then? 25%, or 50%*50%, or 50%^2. That's also your chance of NOT getting tails, since they're two ways of saying the same thing.
Fip it again. Eight possible outcomes of equal probability. Only one is heads heads heads. Now you're at 1/8, or 12.5% to have not gotten any tails, or 50%^3.
The chance of NOT getting tails for N flips is 50%^N.
Now what about criticals? It's the same formula, just a different probability you're plugging in. Your chance of not getting a critical for N flips is 95%^N. Now, that starts out very high, since any individual "flip" is very likely to not be a critical. But as N gets larger, the chance that you never had a critical gets small. As said, after 90 "flips", you're down to 1%.
"That's because Werner can't do maths." - BunnyAnomaly
"Four hours in, and I was no longer making mistakes, no longer detoggling. I was a machine." - Werner
Videos of Other Stupid Scrapper Tricks
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Once the combat engine determines that a power hits, it then determines if that hit should be a crit.|
Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
Alright so they are separate from hit rolls. So how does the game decide when to hit crit or not and what method does it use?
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(The following is assumption based on my programming of similar mechanics. The actual programming may be different, but it is unlikely.)
To determine if a hit should be a crit, the game generates a random number between 1 and 100. If the number is below the crit chance, in this instance 5, then the hit is a crit.
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| Sounds like a casino game to me. The more you play regardless how many times you lose, it mean the chance of winning increases after each loss? I've seen plenty people go into financial ruin with that though process. |
If you flip a coin, the chance that it comes up heads is 50%. That never changes, no matter how many times you flip.
Let's say that if you flip n times and don't get at least one heads, you lose. What are the odds that you lose? With one flip, it's 50%. With two, it drops to 25%.
Why? Take a look at the possible outcomes for your flip:
1st flip heads, 2nd flip heads
1st flip heads, 2nd flip tails
1st flip tails, 2nd flip heads
1st flip tails, 2nd flip tails
Of those four outcomes, only one of them involves not getting heads.
No matter how many times you flip, there's only one outcome that doesn't involve getting heads: every flip has to be tails. Every time you flip, you add 2^(n-1) outcomes, but you still only have one "lose" outcome, so the odds of losing go down as you flip more times.
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| The more you play regardless how many times you lose, it mean the chance of winning increases after each loss? I've seen plenty people go into financial ruin with that though process. |
We'll always have Paragon.
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That one guy is probably making more than 90 to hit rolls per mission. I might make 1000 to hit rolls on a big map with my numbers cranked up, and with lieutenants and bosses (10%), and using a 15% chance to critical attack, or even the Scrapper chance to critical ATO proc. More criticals than I can count on my fingers and toes is then very, very likely.
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Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
well if one guy is getting more crits than he can count on his hands and toes, or about at least 20 crits out of the 90 attacks, assuming he has all digits, he is critting at least 22% of the time, way above the 5% base chance
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"That's because Werner can't do maths." - BunnyAnomaly
"Four hours in, and I was no longer making mistakes, no longer detoggling. I was a machine." - Werner
Videos of Other Stupid Scrapper Tricks
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well hell even after 362 there have been times I haent gotten any rare. Or ever how it goes. But sounds like you saying that is irrelevant to Crit.|
Originally Posted by Hopeling
This page? [url]
Anyway. The game generates a random number and uses it to decide whether to crit or not. But it generates another random number, it doesn't just re-use your hit roll. (If it did, every attack you managed to land on an Eluding Paragon Protector would be a crit, and from observation that's clearly not true.) It would indeed be erroneous to think the odds increase with each non-crit. 5% is 5%, no matter how many crits or non-crits you got before it: it's incorrect to get 19 non-crits with a 5% chance and say "aha, my next attack is guaranteed to crit!" Each roll is an independent event; past failures (or successes) do not affect future probabilities. But, you CAN say "I am making 400 attacks with a 5% crit chance; I expect to see about 20 crits among those 400 attacks". It's entirely possible that you could make all 400 attacks and get zero crits (or 400!), although not likely, and regardless of how many crits you get, your odds of getting a crit on the 401st attack are still 5%. |
And so basically, the last number ya rolled wont come back next but that doesnt mean ya wont roll it again, unless the a rolled number is crossed out to never come up again untill success so meanign regardless, just as I thought, regardless of last time or hit prior, you still only have 5% to hit. So then it is not all that abstract to have no crits in 400 hits, given that within that 400 some numbers will be repeated, except the immediately prior? number, which reset each individiual hit at 5%. So while it's well in possible to crit 100 times out of them 400 times or crit twice in a row, or 25% of the time, and assuming that is on the high end in order to balance it over all to 5% chance that means there are some unlucky ones that is hitting well below 5% or possibley seeing lot of zero especially hitting 1 crit sometimes out 90 mobs or 1.111% or out of 400 would be 4 out of 400. Some people reported even hitting crit on every other attack or 50% of attacks in one mis or 45 times out of 90 attacks. ten times above 5%. Which would mean for everytime that event happens there is someone hitting a crit half of a percent of a time or 2 crits for every 400.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
You can roll the same number twice in a row. They are completely independent events: it doesn't care what you rolled last time, it rolls a new number completely unaffected by the previous roll. There is no resetting, there is no crossing out. Each roll is a completely separate 5% chance.
So yes, it's definitely not abstract to get zero crits in 400 hits. It's unlikely, but it can still happen: if it couldn't happen, we'd call it "impossible", not "unlikely". But that particular thing is one-in-a-billion (technically, 1.2-in-a-billion).
If you can point me to someone claiming to consistently get a crit on every other attack with a power that supposedly has a 5% crit chance, I'd tell them the same thing I'm telling you: they are either mistaken for one reason or another, or they are experiencing a serious bug that needs to be fixed. But I've never seen anyone claiming such a thing.
Basically, there are 2 possibilities here:
1) You are, for whatever reason, wrong about your luck. This is the one I'd place money on if I were a betting man, but I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for the purposes of discussion. If this is true, examining some combat logs can demonstrate it, and you can start taking full advantage of defense bonuses and crits and etc.
2) You are, for whatever reason, right about your luck. If this is true, it means something in the game is severely broken, and you are the only one that can provide evidence of it. If this is true, examining some combat logs can demonstrate it, and it can be fixed, and you can start taking full advantage of defense bonuses and crits and etc.
Whether you are right or wrong, providing evidence is personally beneficial to you.
[QUOTE=NeverDark;4322390]Once the combat engine determines that a power hits, it then determines if that hit should be a crit.
(The following is assumption based on my programming of similar mechanics. The actual programming may be different, but it is unlikely.)
To determine if a hit should be a crit, the game generates a random number between 1 and 100. If the number is below the crit chance, in this instance 5, then the hit is a crit.
[QUOTE=NeverDark;4322390]
Basic probability theory.
If you flip a coin, the chance that it comes up heads is 50%. That never changes, no matter how many times you flip.
Let's say that if you flip n times and don't get at least one heads, you lose. What are the odds that you lose? With one flip, it's 50%. With two, it drops to 25%.
Why? Take a look at the possible outcomes for your flip:
1st flip heads, 2nd flip heads
1st flip heads, 2nd flip tails
1st flip tails, 2nd flip heads
1st flip tails, 2nd flip tails
Of those four outcomes, only one of them involves not getting heads.
No matter how many times you flip, there's only one outcome that doesn't involve getting heads: every flip has to be tails. Every time you flip, you add 2^(n-1) outcomes, but you still only have one "lose" outcome, so the odds of losing go down as you flip more times.
yea so still with 50% depending on how those sets of two are ordered, you can roll a tail, tail. then second set roll a tail head and then again roll tail tail. so even with 50% chance you still can possible hit only 16% heads within three set. Or on the other end you can hit head head, then head tail, and then head head again and that would be 83% win.
(Out of curiosity just flipped coin ten times in sets. tail tails, tail head, head tails, tails, tail, tails tail. Assuming that neither one is one I'm aiming for before hand just flipping. But if heads in this case was a win that would be 20% hit out of 50% or tails for the win 80% win. Now with between each is a 40% increase/decrease in the win/lose spectrum. meaning on the same scale of a 5% chance to begin with 2% win normal range and 8 percent normal range. Giving that there are many that crit more than 8%, statistacally there must be just as many that hit below 2%
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
The recipe rolls are not a particularly good example to compare to crits, because it's very difficult to get a statistically significant number of rare recipe rolls as drops. If you get 362 such recipes, your expected number of Touch of the Nictus procs is 1... but the standard deviation is .9986. So getting zero recipes is barely over one standard deviation from the mean, which is to say it's not even unlikely enough to be noteworthy. Now, if you got 362,000 recipe drops, you'd expect to get 1000 Touch of the Nictus procs, with a standard deviation of 31.57 - meaning it would be very unlikely to get more than about 1100 or less than about 900 (~3 sdevs from the mean), and incredibly, astronomically unlikely to get zero (~30 sdevs from the mean. 30 sdevs is like getting a winning lottery ticket while being struck by a meteor while being killed by a shark during an eclipse on february 29th). But getting 362,000 rare recipe drops means defeating millions of bosses, which is impractical (to put it mildly) for a single player to accomplish. If you could see the total recipe drops that all players have ever received, though, you would indeed see that very close to 1 in 362 recipes from that drop pool have been Touch of the Nictus procs.
By comparison, 5% (1 in 20) is far easier to get a statistically significant sample size for. On 400 attacks (easily achievable in a single play session, sometimes in a single mission), the mean would be 20 and the standard deviation would be ~4.36.
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Citation needed.
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Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
Giving that there are many that crit more than 8%,
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yeah seem one guy when I explained I dont crit often said he didnt see a problem. he crits about every other attack. Victory server. Wished I remembered his name. Yeah still working out on tryign to log this stuff. Like last mish I only crit four times, the one prior one time. on average about two per mish. a few none at all. I didnt come up wit hthe luck then observed. I observed first then guess my luck was bad as people just said it was impossible or and etc and so I assumed it must be my luck since the game must be perfect according to the majority and I cant really prove the game is doing something wrong but what I do have is my numbers and know what I observed with hits and crits so then what else could it have been but my luck especially since it's only 5% to hit. I had worse problems with way better chancers so it would not be so abtract for it to happen at 5%. Even though I have been in situations where a mob have def and I have 5% chance to hit and whiff all day as I just wont roll or flip below 5. or had missions where my chance to hit was 95% to hit and miss every other hit for two 12 attacks straight miss/streakbreaker/miss/streakbreaker. giving a 50% hit rate for that area and go on to average the mission out at 70-75% out of a 95% chance to hit or 5% chance to roll above 95. Flip it you have the same with crits. If it's possible to roll 25% of the time in that 5% range then it's possible to miss it completely, especially if it's should be baseline missing it 95% of the time.|
Originally Posted by Hopeling
You can roll the same number twice in a row. They are completely independent events: it doesn't care what you rolled last time, it rolls a new number completely unaffected by the previous roll. There is no resetting, there is no crossing out. Each roll is a completely separate 5% chance.
So yes, it's definitely not abstract to get zero crits in 400 hits. It's unlikely, but it can still happen: if it couldn't happen, we'd call it "impossible", not "unlikely". But that particular thing is one-in-a-billion (technically, 1.2-in-a-billion). If you can point me to someone claiming to consistently get a crit on every other attack with a power that supposedly has a 5% crit chance, I'd tell them the same thing I'm telling you: they are either mistaken for one reason or another, or they are experiencing a serious bug that needs to be fixed. But I've never seen anyone claiming such a thing. Basically, there are 2 possibilities here: 1) You are, for whatever reason, wrong about your luck. This is the one I'd place money on if I were a betting man, but I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for the purposes of discussion. If this is true, examining some combat logs can demonstrate it, and you can start taking full advantage of defense bonuses and crits and etc. 2) You are, for whatever reason, right about your luck. If this is true, it means something in the game is severely broken, and you are the only one that can provide evidence of it. If this is true, examining some combat logs can demonstrate it, and it can be fixed, and you can start taking full advantage of defense bonuses and crits and etc. Whether you are right or wrong, providing evidence is personally beneficial to you. |
WHy cant I just have normal rolls like everyone else? I dont know. I didnt ask to have odd roll situations but seeing as how I do I cant act or say I'm having normal. Ya dont know how much I wish I coudl say, oh yeah, I hit crits on average about 5% of the time over all. or out of 90 attacks that would be a consistant 4.5 crits. But averaging avout half that per mish. And some people get better luck and average more than 4.5 crits per 90 attacks
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
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hey I'm just going by what other tell me. But I dont think it's farfecthed that some people out there crit 32 or more even out of 400 attacks.|
Originally Posted by Hopeling
Citation needed. |
I seriously doubt everyone crit exactly 5%.
Hell I dont even exactly hit 95% of my attacks overall.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
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No, see, that's the great thing. If you have numbers, if you have data, you CAN prove whether the game is doing something wrong.
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Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
since the game must be perfect according to the majority and I cant really prove the game is doing something wrong but what I do have is my numbers and know what I observed with hits and crits
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I don't think it's farfetched at all. In fact, I guarantee you that it happens quite often.|
Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
hey I'm just going by what other tell me. But I dont think it's farfecthed that some people out there crit 32 or more even out of 400 attacks.
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I DO think it's farfetched that it happens to any given person consistently. "Luck" is not an entity; it's not something a person just has or doesn't have as a permanent character trait. It's something that happens, but that doesn't mean it will happen again. And if it does happen consistently, that means something is broken, and needs to be fixed.
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Yeah never knew how to collect that data to share and not even sure how to post attachments here, let alone recording something in game, get it to a file, tranfer said file to this forum. Still figuring it out. And when I do now I must gather more data that took a long time in the first place to collect and write down to tranfer so that it come directly from the the game and the authenc, at least I would think, cannot be questioned then.
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Originally Posted by Hopeling
No, see, that's the great thing. If you have numbers, if you have data, you CAN prove whether the game is doing something wrong.
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-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
I don't think there's a way to attach a text file directly here, but you could host it elsewhere (google docs maybe?) and link to it.
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So I thought too, but it happens consitantly for me. For example I had this event happen to me before. But try to answer this. What are the chances of someone having a flat tire at any given moment while driving, assuming ya dont run over anythign and the tires are new. The relative chance is about 1 in 10,000. The chances of getting a flat tires, straight from stat source is about 1 in 1,000,000. |
Originally Posted by Hopeling
I don't think it's farfetched at all. In fact, I guarantee you that it happens quite often.
I DO think it's farfetched that it happens to any given person consistently. "Luck" is not an entity; it's not something a person just has or doesn't have as a permanent character trait. It's something that happens, but that doesn't mean it will happen again. And if it does happen consistently, that means something is broken, and needs to be fixed. |
I've gotten three in one day all brand new Michelin tires. Had to call tow truck the second one because didnt even had chance to replace the flat. Then when I got to the store, they replaced the two under warranty then another blow out. No one could believe it and all was found to be brand new tires with no defect and no signs of running over anything or outside puntures. But the now three destroyed tires was evidence that something rare than lightning and getting attacked in a desert by a great white shark did happen. Still I did not win lottery.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
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I dont do google anything I like my personal information thank you very much. Maybe they do steal info maybe they dont but I'm not risking it at all wit hany thing google, or anything that google owns.|
Originally Posted by Hopeling
I don't think there's a way to attach a text file directly here, but you could host it elsewhere (google docs maybe?) and link to it.
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going to have to fidn some other host site,.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
DO think it's farfetched that it happens to any given person consistently. "Luck" is not an entity; it's not something a person just has or doesn't have as a permanent character trait. It's something that happens, but that doesn't mean it will happen again. And if it does happen consistently, that means something is broken, and needs to be fixed.""
I dont think luck if a personaility trait as over all it mostly happens in game for bad luck that is. Personally I think it's about average. I aint been hit by a bus or anything crossign the street but havent won the lottery either. Have more than enough cash and good job, husband has good job that pays excellent. Running into him when we first met was pure luck as originally I had no intentions n being there at that moment at all. But in this game, luckily it dont matter too much in life, I'm not that lucky. And that's ok. In real life I know a person that got shot on their way to the store, the ambulance got into a wreck on the way to the hospital because a numb nut ran the red light and hit the amb. He had to get emergency surgery to save his life but doc got stuck in traffic, in the end he made it but really that was nothing but dumb luck with those events. And just because it never happened to me, I can sit around and call it bullcrap all day because I think it is impossible and throw numbers around but to him, the person that actually went through it know good and well it was nothing of bullcrap and it was dumb luck for that to happen and very good luck he made it.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
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I'm a bit lost on what you're trying to suggest. It's true that a roll of tail tail tail head tail tail includes about 17% heads. Is that what you're saying? What sort of meaning are you trying to draw from that?|
Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
yea so still with 50% depending on how those sets of two are ordered, you can roll a tail, tail. then second set roll a tail head and then again roll tail tail. so even with 50% chance you still can possible hit only 16% heads within three set. Or on the other end you can hit head head, then head tail, and then head head again and that would be 83% win.
(Out of curiosity just flipped coin ten times in sets. tail tails, tail head, head tails, tails, tail, tails tail. Assuming that neither one is one I'm aiming for before hand just flipping. But if heads in this case was a win that would be 20% hit out of 50% or tails for the win 80% win. Now with between each is a 40% increase/decrease in the win/lose spectrum. meaning on the same scale of a 5% chance to begin with 2% win normal range and 8 percent normal range. Giving that there are many that crit more than 8%, statistacally there must be just as many that hit below 2% |
Every possible sequence of six flips has the same probability, 1/64. There are no special sequences. Your chance of all tails is 1/64. Your chance of all heads is 1/64. Your chance of tail tail tail head tail tail is 1/64. You could even write these sequences as binary numbers, heads as 0, tails as 1. They'd range from 000000 through 111111, the binary numbers that in decimal are 0 to 63, so 64 different numbers. So yes, it is JUST as likely for you to have all tails as it is for you to have any other sequence.
But that's not at all the same thing as saying that having 3 tails is no more likely than having no tails, if you were trying to suggest something like that (I can't really tell). Let's go back to a simpler example with three flips. Our possibilities are:
000What's our chance of all tails? 1/8 (111). What's our chance of two tails? Well, there are THREE such sequences (011, 101, 110). The chance of two tails is 3/8. Chance of one tail? Also 3/8 (001, 010, 100). The chance of no tails is 1/8 (000). We can already see a very crude probability distribution starting to form. How about four flips?
001
010
011
100
101
110
111
0000Our distribution continues to form. If all you're doing is counting, some outcomes are indeed more likely than others. In fact, the pattern it follows is well known, and you can calculate each number of each row in this pattern by adding the two numbers you see above it.
0001
0010
0011
0100
0101
0110
0111
1000
1001
1010
1011
1100
1101
1110
1111
4 tails = 1111 = 1/16
3 tails = 0111, 1011, 1101, 1110 = 4/16
2 tails = 0011, 0101, 0110, 1001, 1010, 1100 = 6/16
1 tail = 0001, 0010, 0100, 1000 = 4/16
0 tails = 0000 = 1/16
1
1,1
1,2,1
1,3,3,1
1,4,6,4,1
1,5,10,10,5,1
1,6,15,20,15,6,1
And so on. Note that the total possibilities each time doubles on each row, as we would expect for flipping a coin one more time.
So what's our chance of 1 head in a sequence of six flips? 6/64. We can see it in the table, or we can write out all such sequences (000001, 000010, 000100, 001000, 010000, 100000).
I could be clarifying nothing, as I'm not sure you're even disagreeing with any of this.
"That's because Werner can't do maths." - BunnyAnomaly
"Four hours in, and I was no longer making mistakes, no longer detoggling. I was a machine." - Werner
Videos of Other Stupid Scrapper Tricks
Wow. Busy thread overnight. I don't have anything to add numbers wise. I do know that a purple drop is supposedly 1 in about 3k or so on average. Sometimes it feels like my average is way higher than that, but I have to admit my numbers are skewed by ae defeats. Even if I know that defeats don't count towards a purple drop, my perception is that my average is higher than 1 drop per 3k defeats.
As for luck... Not sure what to tell you. Maybe you being held up 3 times in one day with a flat tires meant that you weren't at an intersection when a drunk driver went through... Life is funny that way. I personally don't believe I have much luck. Good or bad.
Interesting thread so far, but can we stick to the OP? reward drops are a whole new can o' beans. just make a Google docs saying you name is billy bob bo JR. and that you live in Russia, don't give any personal info
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Regards, Four-Cee-Three
Quote:
yes but I dont like google putting, accessing, anything that has anything to do with my computer or anything. Not even IP address. There must some equivalent somewhere else, that is owned, affiliated, ran by, or sponsored by google and their ilk.
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Originally Posted by 4c3Player
Interesting thread so far, but can we stick to the OP? reward drops are a whole new can o' beans. just make a Google docs saying you name is billy bob bo JR. and that you live in Russia, don't give any personal info
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-Female Player-
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
You could Bing it.
If a mission has, say, 10 mobs of 3 minions each, and each minion takes 3 attacks to defeat, thats 3 attacks times 30 minions for 90 attacks made in that mission with a 5% chance to crit on each attack (assuming you never use a power with a higher crit chance).
The odds of critting once in 90 attacks is .95^90, or approximately 1%. Thus, the odds of you critting at least twice per mission is 99%.
That chance goes up if you use an attack with a higher crit chance, if you fight any Lts or higher, and if it takes more attacks to down an enemy.
-Female Player-
"Kick Rocks."
I laffed so hard.