the Real-Market Apocalypse 2012
By
Draugadan,
Posted on: 2012-03-02 05:16 in The Market and Inventions
The market, which you so nobly serve, comes from destruction, disorder and chaos. Now take this empty glass. Here it is: peaceful, serene, boring. But if it is destroyed
*Pushes the glass off the table. It shatter on the floor, and several small machines come out to clean it up*
Look at all these little things! So busy now! Notice how each one is useful. A lovely ballet ensues, so full of form and color. Now, think about all those people that created them. Technicians, engineers, hundreds of people, who will be able to feed their children tonight, so those children can grow up big and strong and have little teeny children of their own, and so on and so forth. Thus, adding to the great chain of the market. You see, father, by causing a little destruction, I am in fact encouraging marketing. In reality, you and I are in the same business.
Clicking on the linked image above will take you off the City of Heroes site. However, the guides will be linked back here.
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If the swing is that high it will only be because people want to BUY IN NAO/SELL IT NAO. The "cost" of a converter is ~2-15m depending on how you acquire it. That's way too cheap to permit a 300m influence spread.|
Originally Posted by graystar_blaster
but i expect 100--->400 still a possiblility (least to most--> desireable)
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Here's how the math shakes out:
Assuming 6 "less desirable sets" and 4 "more desirable" sets, it takes an average of ~2.25 converters to hit a "good" set from a bad one.
To convert inside a set (assuming 1 desired IO and 5 undesired ones), it takes an average of ~15 converters (that's 5 converts @ 3 converters each).
If for some reason you want to target a specific set (ie, you want exactly one particular purple set), then "hitting" that specific set will require, on average, ~9 converters.
So even given ANY purple and wanting to convert it to ANY other specific purple, the average number of converters required would be ~24.
24 converters is 2.4 HAM/VAMs + 6m influence, or 12 Astral Merits + 6m influence, as an example. You can do the math on how much influence you can extract from the HAM/VAMs or the A-merits, but ultimately, the cost of 24 converters is less than 100 million, and so the differential between the LEAST expensive purple and the MOST expensive purple should generally be less than 100M.
Now, of course, people will still overpay/undersell. It was possible for a particular Armageddon recipe already to have a >400M swing. However, what I'm expecting to see is purples ranging from 150M-200M on the low end, to 300-350M on the high end.
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You and i disagree with the numbers by about 100 mill(which is about 25%) of my numbers. I can see your thought process and i can say I agree with most of what you said. And will not be surprised by them being lower having has some time to think about it. In fact maybe even lower than both of us thought.
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Originally Posted by Plasma
If the swing is that high it will only be because people want to BUY IN NAO/SELL IT NAO. The "cost" of a converter is ~2-15m depending on how you acquire it. That's way too cheap to permit a 300m influence spread.
Here's how the math shakes out: Assuming 6 "less desirable sets" and 4 "more desirable" sets, it takes an average of ~2.25 converters to hit a "good" set from a bad one. To convert inside a set (assuming 1 desired IO and 5 undesired ones), it takes an average of ~15 converters (that's 5 converts @ 3 converters each). If for some reason you want to target a specific set (ie, you want exactly one particular purple set), then "hitting" that specific set will require, on average, ~9 converters. So even given ANY purple and wanting to convert it to ANY other specific purple, the average number of converters required would be ~24. 24 converters is 2.4 HAM/VAMs + 6m influence, or 12 Astral Merits + 6m influence, as an example. You can do the math on how much influence you can extract from the HAM/VAMs or the A-merits, but ultimately, the cost of 24 converters is less than 100 million, and so the differential between the LEAST expensive purple and the MOST expensive purple should generally be less than 100M. Now, of course, people will still overpay/undersell. It was possible for a particular Armageddon recipe already to have a >400M swing. However, what I'm expecting to see is purples ranging from 150M-200M on the low end, to 300-350M on the high end. |
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Well, initially, I expect the market for anything that has been selling for more than 250 million INF will practically halt.|
Originally Posted by firespray
I'm curious what the long-term effects of converters will be. I'm kind of worried that my niche (crafting and selling damage purples) is going to collapse permanently and I'm going to have to find a new way to make money.
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Looking at everything purple on WW's right now, 10am EST, Sunday, 3/4/2012, there are presently 209 purple recipes (excluding Maelstrom's pistols) and 969 purple enhancements, many of which hover at the 100-200 millionish range.
Anyone sitting on a small amount of A-merits (I have about 20 between 2 level 50's) can go in and snap up the cheapy purples and hope to convert eventually for my needs, but I don't expect I would be able to for nearly as much profit as was once possible.
Given that purples from empyrean Michael start at 40 (50 for pvp's) and non-pvp purples are minimum 20 a-merits (minimum 30 for pvp's), once the current excess is exhausted, things should pick up again. Ultimately, the unique prices will drop somewhat (as expected), but right nao folks are still going to pay a premium (especially since there's pretty much nothing else to do with INF); I expect the other purples will rise in price and likely stabilize around 300millionish as a wild guess.
The 1%, i.e. the farmers, won't really be hurt by this so much as those people who don't have a whole lot and were struggling/hoping to claw their way up. For someone without equity presently, the depression of purple prices will really hurt. With that written, I think the inevitable depression of the rare salvage market will hurt those folks even more because of
a.) the monty haul sized piles of reward merits being given out in super packs and
b.) converting an existing purple to another purple costs no salvage
The gap between classes will grow even further.
@Texarkana
@Thexder
Quote:
I think that's about right. That is about the average price. The question is:|
Originally Posted by Texarkana
I expect the other purples will rise in price and likely stabilize around 300millionish as a wild guess.
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1. Is the "scarcity" of the "good" purple sets pushing prices higher than is otherwise sustainable? or;
2. Will lower prices get more average players without tons of funds to slot them as well?
If you wanted to slot full purples (say, 5x5, or 25 "good" purples), you were looking at something like 12-14B before. Now, probably half, maybe a bit less if you poach or are willing to start off picking up cheap ones and doing your own conversions and then just buying to gap-fill.
My take is that there's enough demand that purple prices will stabilize around 300, and then people concerned that they might go back up (because of higher demand from lower prices) may actually even buy them up aggressively.
I think LotGs are a good example. The merit vendor and then HAM vendor made them a great deal more plentiful but they held up quite well (pre-ATOs) with the massive influx of supply, because they're just really good and demand was high. There's not some magical huge supply of purples.
Side note: WW has been under increasingly aggressive assault from people stocking up. I can say for my final push this weekend I've been spending myself dry buying up purples at ~125M (and I'm basically broke now). In my mind this is the last time you can buy quarters with dimes... and I'm aiming to have enough purples that I need never buy another again. I'm going to have a really large stash, but I don't really intend to sell it. I bought enormous stacks of various other cheap things - L20 non-proc Miracles, L35 Kinetic Combat: chance for knockbacks, even cheap stacks of steadfast protection res/ends (since both other IOs it can convert to are valuable procs). Even hundreds of Kheldian's Grace ATOs. And I generally just intend to hoard it, convert it, and organize it. What good does the influence do me?
Plus, I think if anything, after a precipitous fall, purple prices will begin climbing again. 6-12 months I see them higher at 300-400 or 400-500 instead of the 200-300 I'm expecting next week.
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I think it is, significantly, until atleast Tuesday. And, then longterm, once stock is exhausted, the "not-so-good" purples will rise to that 300m watermark, with the "good" purples rising even higher, but no where near pre-i22 levels. |
Originally Posted by Plasma
I think that's about right. That is about the average price. The question is:
1. Is the "scarcity" of the "good" purple sets pushing prices higher than is otherwise sustainable? or; |
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Plasma
2. Will lower prices get more average players without tons of funds to slot them as well?
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I'm actually a little concerned about the game based on this progression.
- Before inventions, people basically farmed for INF directly and might occasionally score the diamond in terms of Hami's or Titans (assuming they'd be willing to sell it off).
- When inventions came, farmers had...more to farm for, but farming became more accessible to everyone in terms of reaping, particularly when it came to Magic salvage.
- Reward merits and AE tickets were the equivalent of the Louisiana Purchase -- the west was opened. More fertile land to reap in terms of salvage. People could simply buy up needed salvage with those currencies and plug it into recipes, or else could also sell that salvage off without necessarily having to invest time in acquiring INF first.
- Continuing that analogy, although the Lousiana Purchase "opened up farmland", there were still veins of precious metals out there to be found (i.e. Purple recipes and respec recipes). We call it farming for recipes, but in reality those folks were panning for gold, and when they found it, it freqently was the mother lode, as evidenced by the offline arrangement of transactions.
- Then comes along Incarnate Rewards in terms of Astral and Empyrean Merits as well as Alignment Merits. Althought slightly time-locked, purples are now purchaseable with direct, farmable currency and consequently, we have the rise of the true 1% (see The_Masque from November to December 2011 for an example) who really worked the system and profited from it.
- Superpacks come along a few weeks back and now we have Reward-merits galore. For those folks sustaining themselves on orange salvage sales at 2-3million INF per pop, I fear their days are numbered.
- And then, of course, converters come out on Tuesday, making any purple a possible unique with enough converting, which will impact all the high value uniques. In this case, getting a toon to 50 and committing to running every trial successfully every day over the course of a week in order to nail that one big 2billion inf score on a shield wall or gladiator starts to fizzle.
@Texarkana
@Thexder
Quote:
I am shocked and surpirsed by your analasiys in that i cannot spell and that i did not thikn of this. |
Originally Posted by Texarkana
I think it is, significantly, until atleast Tuesday. And, then longterm, once stock is exhausted, the "not-so-good" purples will rise to that 300m watermark, with the "good" purples rising even higher, but no where near pre-i22 levels.
I don't think so, for the simple reason that farmers (1%/ebil marketers) are far more the exception, and I assume most players may not have that much funding by the time i22 hits. As noted, those folks in the upper class are set, but as purples drop in price, I don't see much of a way for the middle or lower classes to get a leg up (aside from ATOs which are not acquired through any in-game means). I'm actually a little concerned about the game based on this progression.
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2 billion can go a long way for most people (min/maxers and ebil marketers aside). Basically, I think anyone new to the game or relatively casual/middle classed in terms of total inf holding will...lose a significant method/opportunity to improve their economic standing in the game
this is a very big deal you are correct. I was only thinking of myself. But this change will make poor (influ-wise) even poorer.
Very good point
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I think I'm in that category... maybe on the high end of that category, "upper middle class" I guess. I often have to disassemble an older character's build to fund a newer character's build. Despite my 4-year vet badge, my net worth is still only enough to have about 8 characters equipped at a time, plus a few hundred million liquid. I don't farm or play the market, I just do the things I like, and sell things that I earn from that (via drops or merits).|
Originally Posted by Texarkana
Basically, I think anyone new to the game or relatively casual/middle classed in terms of total inf holding will...lose a significant method/opportunity to improve their economic standing in the game.
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This definitely will reduce the usefulness of buying purples/PvP IOs with alignment or empyrean merits. Those are hardly the only way to break into the market, though. I'm far from convinced my ability to earn inf overall will be reduced; I expect I'll end up spending less A-merits on big-ticket items and more on random rolls.
Piles of merits (via SPs mostly), oodles of ATOs (100s of low bids since their debut), bins of KCombat KB procs, Miracle cheapies, Gambler cheapies, PvP cheapies, and stacks of purple Sleeps (acquired back when they were dirt cheap)...I'm ready for whichever way the wind blows.
Repeat Offenders
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Or more on converters. |
Originally Posted by Hopeling
I'm far from convinced my ability to earn inf overall will be reduced; I expect I'll end up spending less A-merits on big-ticket items and more on random rolls.
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Texarkana:
"I don't want to be rich, as long as I can live comfortably and have everything I need."
If you're concerned about your economic standing ("How I measure up to others") there may be some inability to make progress.
If you're concerned about acquiring five sets of Kinetic Combat, though, I don't think it's ever been easier.
in totally different news, I typo'd "Texarcana" and now I may have to get the gunfighter costume package.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
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Well, I wasn't thinking about comparison so much -- more just that after you get that first 50, life usually gets a little better in terms of your inf making ability and that typically translates across the viability to enhance all of your toons, i.e. your entire gaming experience.|
Originally Posted by Fulmens
Texarkana:
"I don't want to be rich, as long as I can live comfortably and have everything I need." If you're concerned about your economic standing ("How I measure up to others") there may be some inability to make progress. If you're concerned about acquiring five sets of Kinetic Combat, though, I don't think it's ever been easier. in totally different news, I typo'd "Texarcana" and now I may have to get the gunfighter costume package. |
And, yes, I have thought about the a Texarcana variant for a magic based hero too, but I've stuck with the "k" variety. Get the gunslinger set, it's nice and will get a bit better as more pieces get proliferated too ( ' :
@Texarkana
@Thexder
Quote:
This depends somewhat on the stratification of prices that happens. I don't think the low end is actually going to change that much. A lot of stuff will still sell for 1-10M inf. I don't expect the Reward Merit glut from Super Packs to be sustained at levels it's at now for the long term. Combine in the "buy it nao" behavior, the cost of Rare salvage, the perceived cost of time spent crafting (related to "buy it nao"), and the general inf-generating power of pre-existing 50s, and there's good reason to think that the low end of market pricing will hover around historic levels. What I expect to change is that more goods will drop down into this price range.|
Originally Posted by Texarkana
Basically, I think anyone new to the game or relatively casual/middle classed in terms of total inf holding will...lose a significant method/opportunity to improve their economic standing in the game.
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Most people seem to be predicting that the expensive purples will drop in price something like 30-60%. If the price of low-end market goods drops 10%, that's a net win for folks who "subsist" on drop sales. The risk of big impact is on people who don't "subsist", but go right for high price goods, selling them for inf with which to buy other goods. But from what I saw, things like LotGs and Miracles only lost around 50% of their market value even at the peak of the Reward Merit glut, and LotGs have bounced back up to 100M since then. (I don't know where they are as I write this, though.) Even at a worst case of them losing around 50% of their value, that puts them on a price scale drop comparable to the price drop in valuable purples, meaning they would still be a good targeted buy.
We'll have to see where this all shakes out over the next two months or so, but right now, even though I agree with the thinking underlying your concerns, I am not sure that the market will stratify in a way that makes them materialize. We shall see.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
My SWAG (Silly Wild *** Guess) is that the PvP Procs will level off to around 100-250mill tops. Little bit more than the Steadfast def proc since thats easily obtain.
Converters will change a lot on the market. Purples will all be around 100-200m as well so I think. But we'll see.
I have 7 toons over 3000merits, 4 over 1000 astrals and 60-100ish emp merits. and loaded with about 250mill to get the converters. Day off so I'll be waiting. Got my Enhances in my email and tray ready to go.