Extremely -over the top- lucky?


Bionic_Flea

 

Posted

In a PvP zone my stalker was in hibernate surrounded by heroes. I came out of hibernate and ran. I checked my tohit window to find this...

Dismantler Essence MISSES! Particle Blast power had a 5.85% chance to hit, but rolled a 23.19.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 95.00% chance to hit, but rolled a 98.99.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 71.96% chance to hit, but rolled a 97.60.
Night Swordsman. MISSES! Kick power had a 42.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 93.21.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 71.96% chance to hit, but rolled a 72.84.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 71.96% chance to hit, but rolled a 93.86.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 71.96% chance to hit, but rolled a 77.04.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 71.96% chance to hit, but rolled a 72.64.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 82.92.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 21.99.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 89.57.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 23.47.
Builder Essence MISSES! Particle Blast Barrage power had a 7.86% chance to hit, but rolled a 60.15.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 74.43.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 86.90.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 41.87% chance to hit, but rolled a 92.37.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 43.95.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 14.72.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 33.47.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 58.46.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 16.77.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 24.61.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 76.12.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 27.20.
Dismantler Essence MISSES! Particle Blast power had a 8.89% chance to hit, but rolled a 39.06.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 28.51.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 76.24.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 86.51.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 52.44.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 81.77.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 20.04.
Builder Essence MISSES! Particle Blast power had a 7.86% chance to hit, but rolled a 21.12.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 72.77.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 27.08.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 14.81% chance to hit, but rolled a 45.40.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 13.90% chance to hit, but rolled a 41.40.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 12.26% chance to hit, but rolled a 60.76.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 11.35% chance to hit, but rolled a 75.77.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 12.26% chance to hit, but rolled a 89.48.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 11.35% chance to hit, but rolled a 94.61.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 12.26% chance to hit, but rolled a 88.02.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 11.35% chance to hit, but rolled a 41.10.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 12.26% chance to hit, but rolled a 14.66.
Sleet MISSES! Sleet power had a 11.35% chance to hit, but rolled a 50.78.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 12.26% chance to hit, but rolled a 71.50.
Ice Storm MISSES! IceStorm power had a 12.26% chance to hit, but rolled a 23.74.
Longbow Warden MISSES! Quills power had a 10.02% chance to hit, but rolled a 24.41.


Subtracting each % from 1 and multipling them...
=0.9415*0.05*0.2804*0.571*0.2804*0.2804*0.2804*0.2 804*0.861*0.861*0.861*0.861*0.861*0.9214*0.861*0.8 61*0.5813*0.861*0.861*0.8519*0.8519*0.861*0.861*0. 8519*0.861*0.9111*0.8519*0.861*0.8519*0.861*0.861* 0.8519*0.9214*0.8519*0.861*0.8519*0.816*0.8774*0.8 865*0.8774*0.8865*0.8774*0.8865*0.8774*0.8865*0.87 74*0.8774*0.8998

I get 1.096697E-07

Which is...

0.0000001096697

Converted to a % is

0.00001096697% chance of this happening. 1 in 1,096,069 chance.

Is something broken or was there really an, almost exactly, 1 in 1 million chance of this happening? Did i just win the lottery (unfortunately on misses in a game), or is something broke....or is my math wrong.


@Sentry4 @Sentry 4

PvP Redux is discontinued, for obvious reasons. Thanks to everyone who helped and joined.

 

Posted

I agree something isn't right with this.. you found other players in a pvp zone?


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sentry4 View Post
I get 1.096697E-07

Which is...

0.0000001096697

Converted to a % is

0.00001096697% chance of this happening. 1 in 1,096,069 chance.

Is something broken or was there really an, almost exactly, 1 in 1 million chance of this happening? Did i just win the lottery (unfortunately on misses in a game), or is something broke....or is my math wrong.
I didn't check the first part of the calculation, but this last bit of math is wrong. To get the ratio (that is, the "1 in X chance") you take the reciprocal of the likelihood. That is 1 / 1.096697E-07. Which is 1 in 9,118,289. So it was actually almost a 1 in 10 million chance.


Kosmos

Global: @Calorie
MA Arcs in 4-star purgatory: Four in a Row (#2198) - Hostile Takeover (#69714) - Red Harvest (#268305)

 

Posted

It was a chance of a lifetime!


50s: Inv/SS PB Emp/Dark Grav/FF DM/Regen TA/A Sonic/Elec MA/Regen Fire/Kin Sonic/Rad Ice/Kin Crab Fire/Cold NW Merc/Dark Emp/Sonic Rad/Psy Emp/Ice WP/DB FA/SM

Overlord of Dream Team and Nightmare Squad

 

Posted

Yeah, I've seen the same sort of streak before. It is always associated with area effect pseudo pet attack. Every single attack that happens while the pet is active misses the target. I've never bothered to save the logs because, well it's pretty hard to track down an error with something that by it's nature is supposed to be random.


Don't count your weasels before they pop dink!

 

Posted

Well, with regards to Sleet (That's similar to Freezing Rain, right?) - When I check the logs for my Stormie, I only ever see it missing, and never connecting - I think it just doesn't show successful hit rolls, because the enemy has obviously been hit, but the hit roll never showed up that it was.

Also, after awhile the enemy chance to hit you was down around 10%. I counted roughly 30-40 attacks in there, and it doesn't surprise me to get a streak like that where only 3 or 4 should have connected anyway. It's kinda like cascading defense failure, only in reverse - once they stopped hitting you, they stopped being able to hit you.


Champion 50s (blueside): Marc Bridge, Nicole Bridge, Fred Blaze, Colleen Storms, Sun's Chariot, Moon's Huntress, Point of Pride
Guardian 50s (redside): Connie Mand
AE arc: Spirit Plane Invasion, #29282, @Honbrid

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honbrid View Post
Well, with regards to Sleet (That's similar to Freezing Rain, right?) - When I check the logs for my Stormie, I only ever see it missing, and never connecting - I think it just doesn't show successful hit rolls, because the enemy has obviously been hit, but the hit roll never showed up that it was.
That is correct. Hits dont show up only the misses. Need to use tohit and dmg taken for that.


"I have ridden the mighty moon worm!"
-Al Gore
Fiery Aura is only good for farming, I'm cereal

@Caucasiafro

 

Posted

In this situation i was only there for 2 seconds at most, and i got away -in hide- so i wasn't hit by anything. That's why i checked my combat. This is literally me breaking from hiber and running at max speed away (and then running near a spine warden near the end). My hide wasn't broken during this time, and sleet didn't hit me.

Also, thanks for pointing out the math error.


@Sentry4 @Sentry 4

PvP Redux is discontinued, for obvious reasons. Thanks to everyone who helped and joined.