A double XP weekend like no other

This is the thread where I lose any market cred I may have.

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that the coming double XP will be like no other and DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! the market (for a few weeks).

My thinking is that, generally, players will favour play that allows them to earn double XP. For the first time, players will have the option of spending all double XP weekend at the mission architect, which pretty much eliminates travel time and therefore maximises double XP playtime.

So players will generally be earning tickets during 2XP, not drops.

Players will be trading them for high ticket value items, to minimise the number of (non-2xp-earning) trips to the market to offload drops. This will be rare salvage, and silver/gold rolls.

Previous 2XP weekends have seen a salvage shortages after the event as people start to slot their toons properly once double XP is over.

I therefore predict that there will be a massive shortage of common and uncommon salvage of doompocalypse!!!!11!!1! proportions, peaking the Sunday after double xp weekend (9th August).

To put my money where my mouth is, I intend to list one 10-stack of each common salvage item for 1 million inf per piece. If I'm right, they will all sell.

This may be the first meh 2xp weekend.
Double xp likely will not work in AE and players are now familiar with xp rates that would make any previous event or farm before i14 blush.
If anything, 2xp may push people to regular content.

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Double xp likely will not work in AE

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If that is true, then ignore everything I said :-)

It wont work in AE just like patrol xp doesn't work in AE. Thankfully. Maybe it will start up people doing official content again. I can't recall the last time I was able to get a 8 man team for anything outfit of AE.

Yep it's going to go the opposite way. Yellow salvage will drop in price as people come out of the AE and run regular content (or more than likely radios). There will still be a shortage of commons and rares. Commons will probably maintain prices seen in what is usually an AE spike for the duration of 2 XP.

Rare salvage will rebound in price somewhat and crash again the week end following 2XP.

I'm going to be buying tier 3 and 2 uncommons during 2XP and make my stock available again about 1-2 weeks after 2XP weekend when the prices have bumped up again.

I have 4 SG bins full of level 35 and 40 common IOs. There is all ready a shortage of common salvage. I'm looking to make $$$ on those and am planning on unloading the entire lot throughout the day on Saturday. I'm betting on making between 300,000 to 600,000 on that alone.

I'll probably unload my rare salvage some time on Saturday night or early Sunday depending on what prices do.

Where is the announcement that double XP won't work in AE? I can't find it on the announce forum.

??? When is there a double xp weekend coming?
North

From this post from Niviene :
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Save The Date - Next Double XP Weekend July 31st- August 2nd!

We know you've been waiting to hear so that you can meticulously craft your plan of attack! So go ahead - take off work, ignore all of your other responsibilities and stock up on easily grab-able snacks and beverages - we won't tell anyone! Just make sure to save the date because the next City of Heroes® Double XP weekend will begin Friday, July 31st 2009, at 8:59am PST (11:59am EST) and concludes Sunday, August 2nd 2009, 8:59pm PST (11:59pm EST). Don't miss out!

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There is no official word whether we'll have DXP in AE or not. But since Patrol XP doesn't work there, many don't expect DXP to either.

I expect AE to give regular XP, and dozens of nooblets farming it for DXP regardless, never realizing the error of their ways.

I already put up some salvage at a million apiece.

About four of them already sold.

[ QUOTE ]
There is no official word whether we'll have DXP in AE or not. But since Patrol XP doesn't work there, many don't expect DXP to either.

I expect AE to give regular XP, and dozens of nooblets farming it for DXP regardless, never realizing the error of their ways.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL very likely
I intend to get myself some quality SF/TF action during DXP! :P

Well, I guess I have to eat humble pie, my prediction was pretty much wrong.

Of the 360 common salvage items I listed at 1M each (blueside), only 139 sold during/after 2XP weekend. Still very profitable, but not the DOOM I was expecting.

Brass 10
Ceramic Armor Plate 10
Circuit Board 10
Clockwork winder 10
Demonic Blood Sample 10
Fortune 10
Hydraulic Piston 10
Inert Gas 10
Iron 10
Mathematic Proof 10
Runebound Armor 10
Scientific Theory 10
Temporal Analyzer 10
Nevermelting Ice 4
Silver 4
Spiritual Essence 1
Alchemical Silver 0
Ancient Artifact 0
Ancient Bone 0
Boresight 0
Computer Virus 0
Demonic Threat Report 0
Human Blood Sample 0
Improvised Cybernetic 0
Inanimate Carbon Rod 0
Kinetic Weapon 0
Luck Charm 0
Masterwork Weapon 0
Regenerating Flesh 0
Ruby 0
Rune 0
Simple Chemical 0
Spell Ink 0
Spell Scroll 0
Spirit Thorn 0
Stabilized Mutant Genome 0

It's too bad we don't have a more detailed log of when our items sold.
It'd've been nice to know if those items had sold out in rapid sucession, or steadily throughout the weekend.

One way or another, I'm thinking this list can be used as a guide of which specific common salvage pieces to gamble on next double xp weekend. If you had instead put 360 piecies of the 13 items on that list, do you think they all would have sold then?

Based on my views of the market throughout the weekend I suspect they sold in smallish quantities (i.e. 2 or 3 at a time) when the price on a particular piece spiked due to low demand.

My observation is that high-level common salvage counts for a lot of those items that did sell (Ceramic Armor Plate, Hydraulic Piston, Nevermelting Ice, Fortune, Mathematic Proof, Temporal Analyzer).

Traditionally 40-50 commons are massively oversupplied, hence players delete them on the assumption that they won't sell for much. Conversely, most recipes crafted are level 50 ones, which use these commons. Add that to the shortages caused by AE and DXP weekend, and it's no wonder they sold.

... added to which, people buying 40-50 commons to use on their own characters are almost guaranteed to have large reserves of inf. If you go up a level, get three slots, need 10 salvage and you made 5 million inf that level: you can pay 100K per item of salvage and still have 4 million left over for recipes. Or for next level, if prices go REALLY high.