Pebblebrook
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Posts
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Joined
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Quote:GW2 wasn't the only one they were expecting to boost their income/profits back up. Blade&Soul already launched back in june and from their investor call recorded in early august, they said B&S was on par or better than AION was at its launch.Originally Posted by Turjan
The dip in profits was a glitch, GW2 sales would recover those...but that would only show in the next quarter's results. Action was required NOW!
NCSoft's operating profit/income before AION was about 4.5bil won, after its launch it jumped to 42bil won and peaked at about 87bil won a year later.
Still have to wait and see what the tally is in 3Q but it sounds like they were already seeing a return of their investment that contributed to the dip into the red a month before the CoX closure announcement and GW2 just added to that income.
Side note: Although i would have framed it with a slightly different tone, i would concur with some of Brillig's post, at least about the source's info. It does sound like another case of mistaking revenue for profit. 800k profit doesn't quite fit with NCSoft's (essentially Brian Clayton's boss) revenue number. If it does, that would mean there's maybe $33k per month left to pay for salaries for 80 people and other things which doesn't make sense. -
Quote:Which quarter did they say CoX made 800k/mo profit?Originally Posted by Tannim222
If the information posted on the Titan forums from our fellow player and well respected author is to be held as true, then this guy communicated that the game was making 800k a month in clear profit. Clear profit = after all expenses. That comes out to 9.6 mil a year which is close to the 10 mil posted earlier.
If it was from the last few years, that seems very unlikely unless it's very cheap to run this game. Last quarter's revenue was about $2.5mil which makes that about $833k per month of revenue.
Perhaps someone has mistaken revenue with profit, seems to happen a lot here.
If you can post the link where this was said so i can check it out. -
Quote:NCSoft had done refunds before. Like in the case of Dungeon Runners' shut downOriginally Posted by Rubberlad
And as already stated in other threads, no they didn't have to give us refunds. They could have credited everyone's master accounts for use with other NCsoft products as originally stated by customer support. NCsoft reversed that policy yesterday for various reasons - and its probably best not to openly speculate why while negotiations are still underway.
Fairly sure, they take a game's exit strategy on a case per case basis.Quote:Dungeon Runners players who've been electing to play the game via its paid membership option will be compensated with a code for 30 free days of NCsoft MMO playtime, and digital copies of City of Heroes Architect Edition and Guild Wars Prophecies. Users who purchased multiple months will be refunded, Nichols says. -
Quote:Can you elaborate on the significance of August 24?Originally Posted by Rubberlad
The negotiations would require a hard separation date between companies (for a variety of reasons) but that August 24th cutoff date for refunds is *very* telling.
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Quote:Maybe he means GW2 sales (among CoX customers who haven't bought it yet) has been harmed by the closure.Originally Posted by Arson_NA
I don't think it is very independant, it's someone's personal blog with a company name tacked on to it. I'd like to see his evidence for claims that GW2 sales have been harmed because of this.
GW2 topped European sales charts a week after the closure was announced and it exceeded 2 million copies sold after they resumed digital sales last week.
Re-reading that blog, i'm getting an odd feeling like i saw his argumentative points before in the CoX forums from the last couple weeks, especially his use of the phrase "scorched earth" in particular.
If i didn't know better, i would think he posted here or is getting most of his information from these forums. -
Quote:High player density does influence how quickly you get teams.Originally Posted by graystar_blaster
After 7 years of playing and grinding and farming and playing and marketing etc... Its not fun to log on and see nobody around. Also I am already on teh busiest servers. And i dont feel like waiting 20 mins to get on a team for something i dont really want to be doing.
This whole thing in one way an interesting development. Seems like Freedom and Virtue are experiencing what the other 14 servers have been dealing with for years.
Before the announcement, those 14 servers tend to be around 200-400 unhidden players while the top 2 usually hovers above 1,000. And now Freedom seem to be around 250 and Virtue around 500ish. -
Quote:Current rate yes...but he was talking about 2Q's numbers and the average exchange rates between april and june was 1149.05319 bid price or 1156.13407 ask price.Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
No. Current exchange rate is about 1100 Won to the Dollar.
So depending on which you like to use, i prefer ask price...seems actual tends to be closer to that most of the time...2Q 146,808 KrW(mn) becomes $127,764,320.47 (bid) or $126,981,813 (ask) USD
*Exchange rates from OandaCode:2012 Quarterly Average Monthly Average Bid Ask Bid Ask April 1132.68833 1137.17867 May 1153.14419 1160.29968 June 1149.05319 1156.13407 1161.19067 1170.78500 -
Quote:That article/blog also had a few things that were curious.Originally Posted by Zombie Man
No new information was added. No real industry analysis was added that was not already present on the forums here. Links were to fan-based responses... not to actual analytical data.
It mentioned $146mil in sales but that doesn't look right when converting their total region sales to USD...though he may have mistakenly used the 146 billion KrW that was on the report. It also mentioned the "western market", which i take to mean NA and EU was less than 6% (though technically true) was actually more like 4.4% and that CoX's revenue the past 8 quarters was stable though the graph it included was showing a downward direction.
The article's wording does seem a bit skewed against NCSoft a bit.
Oh and it said CoX was switched to a hybrid model in June 2011 instead of September 2011.
So far it seems suspect...maybe i'll read it when i have more sleep. -
Quote:Your forum experience will likely improve if you just put him on ignore. Unless someone quotes him which negates the feature.Originally Posted by JayboH
Wow, if that's what's been going on, he's quite the jerk.
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Quote:Somewhat true.Originally Posted by Ironblade
The gauges indicate server LOAD, not POPULATION. While these are related, there is not a direct correlation.
It is not a 1 to 1 relationship, but it is a direct relationship...as in the same direction...and though each person can alter a bit how much load they incur, it's still somewhat predictable.
So far, the ranges i observed are green < 250 +/- 75 unhidden players, yellow between green (250ish) and 1100 +/- 150, with servers going red with at least 1100+ish +/- 150.
Given /search's inaccuracy, those ranges are surprisingly reliable considering.
I'm out of town at moment so can't do a count but last night at around US peak 19:30 i saw Freedom teetering between green and yellow load and have observed 249 unhidden players (179 blue, 68 red, 2 gold side) when it went yellow.
Was surprising to see Freedom during US peak have a similar pop as if it were one of the lower pop servers on a normal day (prior to the closure announcement)...after the announcement so far i'm seeing around 80 or less on the normally known low pop servers. -
Quote:Was mostly talking about the big shows. Think i remember Paragon not having a presence in this year's san diego comic con and pax...maybe there's more but can't place it.Originally Posted by Gangrel_EU
If anything, recently they have been having *more* of a presence at shows over the past couple of years.
Or i'm making more of it than i should.
Think i would count the player summit differently since it was funded or at least partially funded from the attending players tickets (verify). -
Quote:I'm sure they've had cost cutting measures over time, but that's not something they'll publicize as a matter of policy. Though probably could guess at some of the effects like when they discontinued french and german localization.Originally Posted by Tiny Bolt
Unless they've actually been cutting back while putting on a good front, which, given other posts, doesn't seem to be the case.
Not sure if it's related but there was also some layoffs that BaBs was a part of. Of course there were also the ending of the EU offices some time ago.
And this is just conjecture on my part but i had the impression that Paragon had fewer or lessened presence among the trade shows and such. (Didn't follow that closely, could be mistaken) -
Quote:NCSoft named Hill+Knowlton Strategies as agency of record in late August but they've been partnered since 2 months ago in July heading pr for GW2 in preparation for it's launch. After GW2's launch in Aug 28, NCSoft liked them so they named as AOR.Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Edit: Searching around about info on NCSoft West, I found that they hired, in the same week as our closure announcement and GW2's rollout, a new advertising agency.
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There does look like a drop in player activity.
I used to observe at least 1000+ unhidden players in Virtue but tonight as of 19:30 pacific (usually US peak) i see Virtue has 521 [359 blue, 157 red, 5 gold side].
Guardian is showing 4th highest load on the server list and i'm only seeing 82 unhidden players [62 blue, 19 red, 1 gold (me)], that makes the rest of the green load servers have even less. -
Quote:Really need to wait at least after seeing the 3Q report to see what impact in NA GW2 has but so far still not convinced they're abandoning NA yet.Originally Posted by Lightbender
Personally, I think falling numbers are certainly part of the issue, but in the end NCSoft just wants to abandon NA. It's a battleground that they are losing in, while they are doing well in Asia. Yes, GW2 is marketed here, and B&S is supposedly going to make the move. But I have the feeling B&S won't make it here, and GW2 will go the way of CoH's support in EU in short order.
As mentioned, GW1&2 is in NA, Lineage2 i believe is still running in NA/EU as well as AION and the new wildstar mmo i think will be NA also. If they were abandoning the NA region, they should at least be cancelling wildstar so it doesn't continue to rack up expenses when it's not earning any revenue yet.
Aion US/EU went F2P...Lineage2 US/EU went F2P...and of course CoX. Those regions are struggling but it looks like they're trying to save it first with F2P and if that still doesn't take, then maybe axe it because it doesn't look like it'll recover not just because of geography.
I probably need to wait till they announce the closing of all the other NA region servers then i guess that's convincing enough that leaving NA is their plan.
The abrupt notice to Paragon is still confusing though i grant you that...unless maybe Paragon's higher ups execs knew something they didn't mention to those lower on the totem pole.
That's possible right?
Eh, the whole thing sort of reminds me of the time Cryptic broke off from NCSoft because they wanted to keep their staff, except Cryptic wasn't owned by NCSoft and Paragon is. -
Quote:Yeah, i did mention in that other thread something about the server load for all servers going green within maybe a week after CO's launch.Originally Posted by Father Xmas
It's possible that it took that long to see the fallout of PvP changes and/or players who were upset over the many "tweaks" done to MA to fix the numerous exploits but we are talking 40-60% loss in revenue. I'm sure if the PvP community was that large those I13 changes would have been rolled back to some extent and I would like to think that 1/2 the players in the game at the time would get upset enough that the quick path to XP and IOs that didn't exist 6 months before was "fixed", that they would choose to quit.
I'm leaning more toward leaving to try CO for whatever reason and even if they didn't like CO, just didn't come back here.
The concurrency i observed around june 2009 was around 8k - 9k for all servers during US peak with Freedom/Virtue usually around 1.8k - 2k. In september 2009 after CO's launch, i was observing around 5.5k for all servers with Freedom/Virtue around 1.2k. That's when they started staying at green load until the server load ranges was changed in i18.
There was a drop in player activity around CO's launch but i don't believe it took almost half of the subscribers just from that alone.
* Note: About 1 month after CO's launch, there was a double xp event and i observed the concurrency jump to around 8k, so there was at least still around the same number of subscribers thereabouts...maybe during normal days they were sharing their spare time with other games like CO.
Still thinking it's a combination of the disgruntled pvp'ers, economy, AE nerfs, CO and maybe even the other game's launch/relaunch that just coincides all around that general point in time each taking a piece of the customer base with it, not a single thing taking half.
EDIT: For reference: Observed server load ranges (unhidden players)
Pre-i18 [green] < 1400 +/- 150 [yellow] < 2800 +/- 200 [red]
Post-i18 [green] < 250+/- 75 [yellow] < 1100 +/- 150 [red]
* I believe it varies a bit per server. -
Quote:No, i'm not responsible for Vicarious' chart but i have had something similar since the base is from the same source.Originally Posted by Father Xmas
What happened from July to October 2009 that caused revenues to shift from roughly $5 million per quarter before to only $3 after?
As for what happened in late 2009, aside from the obvious loss in subscription revenue, there's just guess work since they won't say what the reasons for it.
I did offer some possibilities in this thread but if i had to guess...i'd say a combination of the tanking economy, the AE fiasco and even possibly delayed after-effects of the pvp nerfs in i13 almost a year before. And i think CO's launch had some effect as well.
Maybe some held out before cancelling or many of those that quit over the i13 changes had long-term subs plans that NCSoft were still accounting for till it fully expired.
And interesting to note, shortly after that drop in 2009, they firmly decided to work on adding F2P. -
Quote:NCSoft never published profits specific to a game...only company wide. The number specific to CoX is revenue, but some people seem to interchange that word with profit.Originally Posted by radsmash
Was City of Heroes making $10M-$12M/year in revenues or profits?
And CoX made about $10.8mil USD revenue last year, this year about $5.0mil (half-year)...only assuming it could make about $10mil if it continued normally...but entirely possible it could go lower.
The thing to consider aside from that is yes it's revenue has gotten really small but it was looking to get even smaller even after adding F2P.
Code:Total Yearly Revenue KrW (mn) USD (approx) Change 2004 31,475 27,607,023 2005 34,265 33,199,783 +5,592,760 2006 25,016 25,770,998 -7,428,785 2007 23,446 25,059,657 -711,341 2008 24,217 22,335,820 -2,816,303 2009 22,909 17,760,819 -4,482,535 2010 15,787 13,564,705 -4,196,114 2011 12,089 10,881,574 -2,683,132 2012 11,490 10,041,118 -840,456 *Assumed full year revenue when doubling the half year value (Actual half-year revenue) 2012 5,745 5,020,559 -
Quote:The AE box released about 6 months before the revenue drop that Father XMas mentions, but there was a small revenue spike of about $350k USD when AE launched then it went back down about $400k less than the quarter before the spike.Originally Posted by Starsman
Maybe there was something, else, but that issue and box got a LOT of press.
The economy was already tanking by that time so not sure if CoX's revenue is just then catching up with the drop but there were other game-related possibilities in or around that time.
In may there was that whole AE farming fiasco with nerfs and more AE nerfs with i16 in september (3Q).
AION had open beta and a US release in september as well as DDO relaunch with F2P.
Also, CO launched at the start of 3Q (9/1/09 after the 3 day headstart), which might be coincidental but shortly after that (think within a week) Freedom and Virtue server loads started dropping to green and staying there even during US peak times. Usually during peak freedom/virtue stays yellow most of the time back then...only going red (2800+ish unhidden players) during doublexp
This was back when i used to see it take 1500+ unhidden players to turn a server yellow (they changed that with i18 build to turn red with 1400+ ish)
Code:KrW (mn) USD (approx) Event/Notes Mar-2009 6,837 4,829,698 01/07/09 Mac CoX box 03/10/09 Mac item pack Jun-2009 6,673 5,179,637 04/14/09 AE box 04/17/09 booster2-magic Sep-2009 5,471 4,400,302 07/07/09 AE story slot mtx 07/13/09 booster3-science 08/15/09 loyalty program promo ending 11/15/09 Dec-2009 3,928 3,351,182 10/08/09 reactivation promo 11/12/09 booster4-martial arts 12/19/09 subscription promo 6mo/12mo 1-2 free month…end 1/25/10 -
Quote:It's possible Nexon has something to do with it. Haven't heard much in lieu of their plans except the partnership was to leverage each other's strengths. Nexon is good with casual F2P games but not with big mmo games...NCSoft has the mmo expertise but not so much with F2P and with hopes for co-developing games.Originally Posted by Scarlet Shocker
The Elephant in the Room isn't NCSoft. It's not another game. It's Nexxon.
Sounded like Nexon wanted big mmo IPs instead of destroying them but who knows what happens in their meetings...can't find specifics relating to CoX.
From Nexon's 2Q 2012 shareholder letter
The elephant in the room may well be a game but it probably would be Blizzard's Diablo3 which was mentioned as a reason for the partnership since it exhibited a local threat having big success in Korea as well as other foreign threats like league of legends.Quote:In early June, we became the largest shareholder in NCsoft through the acquisition of 14.7% of the outstanding shares. This strategic relationship brings together NCsoft’s strong pipeline of IP and our leading international publishing platform and free-to-play expertise.
By becoming NCsoft’s biggest shareholder, we believe the agreement opens the door to future commercial relationships, such as co-development of games and leveraging NCsoft’s IP in international territories. We are currently in active dialogue with NCsoft’s team regarding a variety of mutually beneficial opportunities. -
Quote:Not sure you can consider me a messenger...just simply having a discussion and using numbers for reference. But i guess it depends on people's frame of mind.Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Hey, don't shoot the messenger.
So i take it from your reply that the goat is still stalking me with his berating sarcasm? Hehe, so glad i don't see that. -
Quote:Just adding to the quoted part. They defined monthly access numbers as "Monthly access: Number of unique users that log on at least once in the given month" the given month is the last month of every quarter named on the report.Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Now if you look at the last time NCSoft reported monthly access numbers, which I assume is the number of accounts that logged in at least once...
So for 1Q that's logins from March and includes paid as well as non-paid (trial) accounts. Though the vast majority of those access numbers should be from paid (subs) -
Quote:Originally Posted by Snow Globe
Auto Assault apparently had less than 12,500 subscribers.
Numbers from here.
NCsoft stopped reporting CoH numbers a few years ago.
AA combined with another game's (smash star tennis) revenue said to have made up only 1/3 of 1% of NCSoft's total.
Tabula Rasa started with less than what CoX made then went down to less than half till they shut it after a year or so.
Something interesting when comparing those.Code:CoX (USD) TR (USD) 2007-4Q 5,857,540 5,443,250 2008-1Q 5,657,921 1,953,529 2008-2Q 5,629,661 1,967,391 2008-3Q 5,808,868 1,647,081 2008-4Q 5,027,992 133,299 CoX* TR* 2007-4Q 5,401 5,019 2008-1Q 5,416 1,870 2008-2Q 5,743 2,007 2008-3Q 6,193 1,756 2008-4Q 6,865 182 * KrW mn
For most of TR's quarterly income, it comprised about 2% of NCSoft's total revenue and kept that way for about a year. Of course TR still had its initial investment and operating cost which from the looks of it, it couldn't cover.
CoX at the same time made up about 7%. But it slowly shrunk, not just from its own revenue decline but NCSoft's overall income increased because of AION and the revamped Lineage1.
Around late 2009 CoX's revenue was cut by almost half and in comparison, took up only 2% of NCSoft's overall revenue and still declining but staying around 2% for the last few years. -
Quote:Most of CoX's revenue comes from NA. Convert the won into dollars and it will show it's lower this year.Originally Posted by srmalloy
Looking at NCSoft's financial report, City of Heroes revenue in Q2 2012 was 2.855 million won, up from 2.787 million won for the same quarter the previous year.
I posted all of it in this thread a couple months ago before the latest numbers was published.
Just add this to the end of that:
Code:KrW (mn) USD (approx) Jun-2012 2,855 2,469,437
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Quote:Not all Guild Wars earnings is reflected in the revenue number. Income from NCSoft's partners like The9 in asia shows up in a separate number under royalties. And, this part is a guess...i'm under the impression GW's operating costs are lower than CoX's.Originally Posted by Starsman
I actually think it's the other way around. Guild Wars 1 was doing as bad, or worse, than CoH but that game did not get canned.
CoX doesn't have any distribution partners so all it's income shows up under revenue.