Forbin_Project

Originally Posted by Slope

oh wow i didn't think of interior doors! i should've though, the bookcase idea brings me to another idea

-hidden bookcase- inside the library (new building, this and gives missions. Also has crafting tables) there is a glowing bookcase, that's the secret one.

Originally Posted by DocArcus

I would love more slots on a server. I've maxed out on 2 accounts and are working on filling the next one.

Originally Posted by PumBumbler

Since 4Q 2008 NCSoft stopped giving an extra level of detail to CoX reporting, so everything we are talking about has to be extrapolated or interpolated when discussing the metrics of the playerbase.

You're more than welcome to analyze the numbers that have been supplied to figure out how many 0s we should put in d00000m.

Originally Posted by Wooden_Replica

Having seen CO, its hard to imagine that was able to draw AND RETAIN a significant numbers of players from here. What will be interesting over there is how the outlook will look once it hits one year, since the lifetime subscription over there amounted to about one years subscription, and they'll lose that revenue. Overall, I'd say CO will go down before CoX, unless something drastic happens.

Honestly, I think two factors have impacted the game, first is the economy, the second will be solved by GR coming out.

Originally Posted by Sharker_Quint

yeah that...*looks for baseball bats and crow bars*...and way way down the road(2-3 yrs) when mergers start to appear. i won't commit to the idea that servers won't merge but i think they will be working on something to get sg's and names taken care of when it does become inevitable.

Originally Posted by Swergen

When they introduced the new "Supreme Leader" rank for supergroups, alot of folks were left scratching thier heads. From the player standpoint, there was no real reason to do it. It wasnt something that the players had been clamoring for or really seemed to need. (Granted, CoH dropping stuff on the players out of the blue is nothing new.) There was a very vague reasoning given by the Dev staff for the change, but it all seemed sorta not needed. There was some players that weren't happy with the socio-political ramifications, but most folks just sorta shrugged and moved on.

Originally Posted by Sharker_Quint

good point cat... i also maybe see this being an idea they work on when server mergers happen way down the road.

Originally Posted by Fury Flechette

I'm not going to post the default Memphis Bill answer to this post, but someone probably will. That should tell you something if there's already a boiler plate answer for this question/suggestion.

Originally Posted by Morac_Ex_Machina

I think the confusing thing about it is that your statement could be interpreted as a backhanded insult, insinuating that you think that the OP is a lazy good-for-nothing who spends all day browsing forums instead of earning his paycheck.

Originally Posted by Scarlet Shocker

As someone who plays every day I can tell you that the server I play on is a lot less active than it was six months back. My global list, which is quite extensive is way down on active players and I've had a number of people in game make similar observations.

I am more than willing to accept that there may be a lot of people who are subscribed but not playing. That to me indicates they are bored with the game, and if GR - when it eventually arrives - fails to live up to the already heavy burden of expectation placed on it, then the game is in serious trouble. Those players who are not in love with the game will rinse through the content and move on to the next one. There'll be a sudden flurry of activity and then boom back to current user levels.

Originally Posted by Thirty_Seven

I am unsure what intent I am supposed to take out of this.

Originally Posted by JohnX

This is a sad day. My cubical at work has be rearranged such that both my monitors face the door. It wasn’t just me but everyone. Thus, people can easily see what I’m doing now. There is no good equipment or bodily re-positioning that I can do and my rear view mirror rarely helps.

How am I supposed to monitor the forums now?

Devs: Please redesign the forums so that they look like a MS Office application like Word or Excel.

Originally Posted by Tank_Washington

The playoffs are underway and honestly parsing the reduced quarterly information to try and "maybe" "possibly" "I think" "probably" surmise the games subscription health is uninteresting and fruitless.


But in making that graph your friend believes that sales trump subscription numbers, which is a fallacy.
There's no model for a five year old mmo which relies on new sales over steady monthly subscriptions. None, that I'm aware of.


He also doesn't even touch the meandering exchange rate for the won, which has been a rollercoaster the past year and a half, hitting an abysmal 1,500 to the US dollar around Feb 09.

That would be like moving to Argentina with 30K US and feeling like you walked into Bill Gates pin number, in other wards it can inflate/deflate figures wildly.



NCSoft stopped reporting monthly access numbers, maybe because of lowering subscription numbers, or to keep that information from their new competitor, or, whatever.
That was the accurate way of knowing the actual number of subs month over month.


But hell, grab a beer and watch the Eagles get the feathers handed to them.

Originally Posted by Perfect_Pain

if you walk into your local best buy and stand in the games section, or local computer store... and mention CoX people are like "wha?".

Originally Posted by Obsidius

Hardly. Different OP; F_P posted this in the other thread, not TonyV. And well over an hour after this OP was posted.

Originally Posted by Prof_Backfire

I'm not surprised that subs are down at the moment, honestly. It's been a while since a major content infusion, and a lot of people are trying out new stuff and waiting for Going Rogue. Even I haven't been playing much lately.

Originally Posted by TonyV

I keep seeing posts about how CoH is hemorrhaging subscribers. I keep seeing replies about how no, it's not. Posts about how the city is dead. Posts about how no, people are in instanced missions. So it got me to thinking about how we can tell how CoH is really doing, something objective to look at and judge.

As most of you know, NCsoft stopped publishing subscriber numbers a while back. But they do still publish their sales in their quarterly earnings statements. Really, these numbers are a lot more important than subscriber numbers. After all, a game can be wildly successful with a low subscriber base, or wildly unprofitable with a high one. Ultimately, "Is this making us money?" is probably the best judge of whether a company will continue to invest in a game.

SO... With no further ado, here is your chart. Yes, it's small and hard to read. Click on it to see the full-sized version.



Note that I've put labels across the top indicating when each issue release has it, as well as a few of the competitors (WoW: Burning Crusade, WoW: Wrath of the Lich King, and Champions Online).

Here's my assessment, for your consideration.

Are there fewer people playing City of Heroes?

Yes, there are indeed. Not a huge number, though. If you roughly equate sales with subscribers, the game is off average by around 10% right now.

Is the game hemorrhaging subscribers?

No, not by a long shot. There was a lull around the end of 2007 during which sales were actually lower than they are today. Then over the course of the next year, the game consistently posted sales numbers well above average.

Did Champions Online make a dent in City of Heroes?

Um... Maybe. It's hard to tell, because there hasn't really been enough time to say for sure. It had only been out for a month when NCsoft's most recent numbers were posted.

Like I said, the game's numbers are off by around 10%, which I'd consider statistically significant. However, it's impossible to say yet how many of those people are just trying out something novel and will return. After all, look at the HUGE spike in Q4 2005, which City of Villains are released, followed by the more-or-less return to normalcy.

At any rate, even if it did make a dent, I really wouldn't consider 10% much of one, at least not yet. Had CO been a raving success, it could have potentially split the market in two and CoH could have taken around a 50% hit, or even worse. As it is, appearances are that people did indeed go over to check it out. What will be interesting is how many end up staying.

What about Going Rogue?

Let me get out my crystal ball... Yes, it's getting clearer now... Oh wait, it's gone again.

Seriously, as you can see from the chart, CoV give the game a HUGE spike in sales. That one is an outlier, because as I'm sure someone will point out, sales != subscribers, and as I recall, CoH didn't quite double in subscribers when CoV was released (although it did get a bump that lasted over a year).

If the same holds true for Going Rogue, the suits at NCsoft are going to be very happy when Going Rogue hits the streets. That quarter's numbers will go through the roof. Within an issue after the hoopla settles down, things will return to status quo.

Okay fanboi, so what's disappointing about the game?

If I were a suit at NCsoft, I'd be a bit irritated that the Super Booster packs aren't bringing in any significant sales. I mean, they did okaaaay, but after the first one, total sales actually dropped quarter-by-quarter, even with one per quarter being pushed out the door.

Now, one could read this as, "But maybe the Super Booster packs were what kept sales a bit above average. Without those, the game would have tanked!" Enh, maybe. I just don't think so, but it's a valid (if cynical) take on the data. Ditto character slots, server transfers, and all the other mini-transactions in the game now.

"That's bogus, I totally disagree!"

Hey, that's your prerogative. You can look at the data just as I can and draw your own conclusions.

So in conclusion as Tony sees it...

City of Heroes is indeed having an off quarter, probably two once we see the numbers for Q4 2009. Champions Online probably made a dent, but CoH withstood it pretty well. Other competitors (e.g. the 800-pound MMO gorilla) have virtually no affect on CoH.

The game is NOT dying, not by any stretch of the imagination. (Sorry, "DOOOOM!" sayers.) There's good precedent for the numbers coming from even lower than they are now back to having strong sales. The fact that we have a major expansion and client update in the works is very encouraging.

Or as my Magic 8-Ball says: "Ask again later..." *shake* "Outlook good."

Originally Posted by Grey Pilgrim

Well stated, Thirty-Seven. You hit the nail on the head with most of your points.

Perhaps I missed this as well from another post, but such behavior (as in chat anyone can see, not in private channels or tells) is definitely against the EULA. I also believe Castle just posted on a thread about this a week or so ago, saying if you "see" this kind of thing, it should be reported.

NCSoft makes the rules for the game, and such is against the rules. There are good reasons for those rules, as well.

Originally Posted by Tank_Washington

There was no shadow boxing in my reply, very simply:
You supported exactly what I said, even an average black man from Bensonhurst can see that.


And you skipped over any of the ramifications brought on by the second worst financial crisis in US history, which I alluded to as a possible factor in subscription numbers from Sept 08 on.


September 08 (the last month the access numbers were reported) alone saw the collapse of the one hundred+ year old securities firm Lehman Brothers, the sale of Merrill Lynch, and the bailout of AIG to avoid bankruptcy.

That one quarter (sep-dec 08), without any of 2009s continuing declines, saw staggering job losses of 400,000+, 300,000+ and 500,000+ (sept-nov respectively).


In short, the worst wave of bankruptcies, job losses and wealth destruction any citizen under 90 has ever experienced.
Did you factor any of that into your equations my dear?


Length of time between updates, horrible marketing, and a direct (though awful) mmo competitor aside, sudden historic constraints on expendable income in the North American market will have effected this companies bottom line.


To what degree? I don't know, but what players are seeing on their servers is at least tangible anecdotal evidence of something other then frenzied activity.

Originally Posted by Golden Girl

You're a furry, aren't you, JadeTora?