Coulomb2

And now for an update! A big thanks to those who've been keeping track of drops and added big chunks of data! It's much appreciated - as are the people who are now trapped in "flashback" mode, but are still pushing ahead and providing me with their drop information, even if, by necessity, it comes in at a trickle.

Keep it up!

614 rolls total:

461 Commons (75.1%)
118 Uncommons (19.2%)
29 Rares (4.7%)
6 Very Rare (1.0%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 55.90
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 49.17
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 46.38

A final reservation for future posts.

Okay, if you've got data for me, post away! And remember, specificity helps!

Example:

6 first runs: 5 commons, 1 uncommon <--- useful
2 flashbacks: both commons <--- useful

Done all the DA arcs on multiple characters, got nothing but commons with a few uncommons. <--- not useful (no way of knowing how much of what you got)

And if you've been posting in the beta thread, please, PLEASE don't repost data from that thread here - just post new results. I've got all of the old data covered.

Yet another reservation for future posts.

In this section I'll track what the current ratios are (relative to rare and very rare components) - literally, how many commons and uncommon the table produces per rare, long term. And how many common, uncommon, and rares the table produces per very rare, long term. This information is useful when trying to determine a long-term strategy for building a character's incarnate abilities via the solo path.

The information here is updated, but only very rarely (every few weeks), and only if current statistics I've gathered have significantly changed what the ratios are.

The current ratios are:

Relative to rares (Tier 3): 16.63 commons : 4.03 uncommons : 1 rare
To build up to a Tier 3 power: 7 commons : 1 uncommon : 1 rare

Because 4 uncommons (+100 threads) builds a rare, we can think of 3.03 uncommons (above what you need) as 0.75 rares, so the adjusted ratio of commons to rares is:
9.5 commons: 1 rare.

So the tables "overproduce" commons by about 36%, if you are aiming for getting an incarnate power crafted up to Tier 3.

Relative to very rares (Tier 4): 70.22 commons : 17 uncommons : 4.22 rares : 1 very rare
To build up to a Tier 4 power: 16 commons : 2 uncommons : 2 rares : 1 very rare

15 extra uncommons = 3.75 rares = 0.9375 very rares
2.22 extra rares = 0.555 very rares

So the adjusted ratio of commons to very rares is:
28.17 commons : 1 very rare

So the tables "oveproduce" commons by about 76% if you are aiming for getting an incarnate power crafted up to Tier 4.

In general, what that means is that provided your aim is to get a power up to Tier 3 or Tier 4, until the component rolls have given you all the rares and very rares you need to reach your goal the most efficient strategy, long-term, is to save all threads and merits for crafting into rares or very rares. The component tables will generally drop all the commons and uncommons you'll need (and more) before you get the rares or very rares you need.

In fact, there's a good likelihood that you'll have enough "excess" to directly craft the rare you need *before* you actually get one to drop, and a very good likelihood you'll have enough "excess" to directly craft a very rare before you get one to drop.

I've pointed this out before, but for those that are interested - especially those used to the trials - it bears repeating since it's counter intuitive relative to "trial logic" (which the rarer components are common enough you are likely, although not guaranteed, to have what you need before you have every common to need to get to a certain level of power, so converting threads to commons is potentially useful; for the solo path, converting threads and merits into commons and even uncommons is potentially a liability, long-term).

I occasionally do get asked this, so I may as well come right out and answer:

"What are those 'incarnate progress' numbers?"

All incarnate components and powers can be assigned a "value" based on the system's most basic currency: threads. A component (or power's) value is simply the number of threads you'd need to craft that component (or power).

Components:
Common = 20 threads
Uncommon = 60 threads
Rare = 340 threads
Very rare = 1,360 threads

Powers:
Common = 60 threads
Uncommon = 100 threads from a Common (160 from scratch)
Rare = 380 threads from an Uncommon (540 from scratch)
Very Rare = 1,940 threads from the 1st Rare in the tree (2,480 threads from scratch)

"Incarnate Progress" represents, therefore, how many "threads" of progress the average roll on the component table alone is giving you, based on the current drop rates. Note that it is average progress! You pick a component, and get an uncommon, that was 60 threads of progress. You get a rare, that was 340 threads of progress. You get a common, that was 20 threads of progress (but see below). But after a lot of rolls on the table, that's about what you're average progress per roll would have been.

Okay, so what is this whole thing about Tier 3 and Tier 4 progress?

Well, here's the thing: Common components are unique in that they are the one type that cannot be directly upgraded to make a higher "rarity" component. If you've got a common, and you don't need it, you can't use it as part of an upgrade recipe - your only choice is to break it down into 4 threads, which gives a common you have no use for a "progress value" of 4 threads, not 20.

Now, in crafting your way up to a Rare power (from scratch), you're going to ultimately need 7 commons and 1 rare. So as long as the drop tables are giving you no more than 7 commons for every rare you get, each common is worth it's full "progress value" of 20 threads.

But any commons above that 7:1 ratio aren't helping you get that Rare power, and are therefore only worth 4 threads of "progress."

You can do a similar calculation for a Very Rare power: as long a the drop tables give you 16 commons for each very rare (on average), each common is "needed" and worth it's value of 20 threads. But commons that drive the common to very rare ratio higher are not getting you any closer to your Very Rare power (beyond breaking them down into 4 threads and using them in one of the 'higher rarity' recipies).

The Average Thread Value (Tier 3) is giving you the "average progress" of each roll if your goal is to go for a Tier 3 (Rare) power, taking into account the fact that commons beyond the 7:1 common to rare ratio are only worth 4 threads of progress, not 20.

Likewise, the Average Thread Value (Tier 4) is "average progress" for each roll, taking into account commons beyond the 16:1 common to very rare ratio are only worth 4 threads of progress.

Hello everyone! This thread is porting over data on the drop rates for incarnate components in the Dark Astoria arcs from the Issue 22 Beta forums.

A very brief overview:

1. The purpose here is to determine what the exact drop percentages are for each of the "rarities" of incarnate component in the Dark Astoria arcs.

2. I've got a spreadsheet that I use to track data on the drop rates, and tabulate a bunch of statistics regarding the rate at which incarnates progress using the "solo path" in Dark Astoria.

3. I get the data for the spreadsheet (and this thread) by people posting what component drops they get at the end of dark astoria arcs. It's simple - just post what you're getting from drops, and I incorporate the data in my spreadsheet. Every so often, I post in the thread with updated information on where the drop rates currently stand. For me, my posts serve as 'bookmarks' - I assume posts above my updates have been accounted for, and posts below my latest update still need to be added to my data.

4. In the beta thread, our conclusion was there was no difference in drop rates for "first time runthroughs" of each arc (which were called "first runs"), versus "flashback" runs. So my posted data includes both. I do separately track results from flashbacks alone, although they are not posted. That is so that, in theory, I could separate "first runs" from "flashbacks" - although that'd be a bit dubious at this point. If you post drop results, and specify "first run" or "flashback", I track the data accordingly. If you post drop results and don't specify, I treat them as "first runs."

5. You're welcome to tell me what arc you ran for each result, but I don't actually keep track of that anywhere.

6. You're welcome to tell me about merit roll results, but I don't actually keep track of that anywhere.

7. Discussions do crop up regarding "how good" or "how bad" the drop tables are, and how to improve things - that's to be expected. But my number one focus is to track exactly what the component drop rates are.

And now, here are the results (so far) exactly as they stood when I "closed down" the Beta version of the thread:

565 rolls total:

422 Commons (74.7%)
111 Uncommons (19.6%)
26 Rares (4.6%)
6 Very Rare (1.1%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 56.81
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 50.02
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 47.58

Note: I'll be reserving the next few posts to further explain things, and, well, just in case I need them for something.

[QUOTE=Angry_Angel;4180575]

If you'd like a more tangible answer...

You said your SR scrapper is hovering around 30% defense. So the base "to hit" of standard mobs is 20% for you. That implies, long term, you're "blocking" about 60% of the incoming damage (that would have otherwise hit you). So you're "taking" about 40% of the damage you'd take without defenses.

The base "to hit" for something one level lower (versus your 30% defense) is 10%, and they've got what amounts to an 11% damage debuff (really just a bit more). So that -1 is allowing you to "block" about 83% of the incoming damage (that would have otherwise hit you). So now you're only taking 17% of the damage you'd take without defenses.

In other words, "long run" the rate at which you are taking damage drops to less than half what it was before.

Roughly speaking, you have to just a bit more then double the number of foes you are facing at a given time to "feel" like you were getting hurt as fast as +0.

Dark Astoria gets tricky. In effect, setting it to -1:

Keeps 51's from appearing, but won't make any "incarnate-level" mobs 49, since 50 is their minimum level.

*Will* make any mission-specific allies level 49 (which, depending on the circumstances, can actually make the mission *harder* than if you let 51s spawn in).

Since the DA incarnate mobs all have base To Hit of 64%, your 30% defense is blocking (again, long term) only about 47% of the incoming damage for +0 mobs. So you're taking about 53% of the damage you would if you had no defense.

At -1 (which you'll only see after you get that first level shift), their base To Hit is 54%, so your 30% defense (and the 11% damage "debuff") means you'll be "blocking" about 60% of the incoming damage. So now you're taking 40% of the damage you would be if you had no defense.

So instead of taking less than half the damage you used to, you'll only be taking 75% of the damage you used to ... a much smaller relative benefit.

EDIT: One bit of advice ... if you can survive at +1 difficulty *and* you need incarnate iXP, it's worth it. Level 51 foes give *twice* as much iXP as level 50. Obviously if the added difficulty is making it take more than twice as long to kill things, skip it.

I'd just assumed that after Blitz got broken out by "whoever" he and Gossamer went right back to Warburg and were rejoined by all of his rogue Arachnos lackeys (back from wherever they'd gone into hiding). No reason not to seeing as how we just pretty much booted Malta out and launched all the rockets. And SOP for us supers seems to involve assuming that "if the zone is cleared out and all the goodies are gone, it's now beneath our notice and we can safely ignore it, 'cause, you know, it's not like they can't build more rockets. Or discover that there was a whole super secret cache of them hidden there that only Blitz knew about.

So basically, the zone just went right back to normal, as though nothing had ever happened.

And just to put into perspective whether or not Ukaserex is extraordinarily unlucky, or "reasonably" unlucky, the odds of making 24 reward rolls and getting nothing above an uncommon is...

18%

So about 1 person in 5 will experience exactly what he did. So he *isn't* extraordinarily unlucky.

Congrats PW! A well-deserved honor on an arc that literally should have been HoF years ago.

Here's my advice, based on experience, for people wanting to make the most of what DA offers (I'm the guy that on beta actually *did* spend a month trying to get a character to Tier 3 in Alpha, Lore, and Destiny, so this is my "if I'd known better when I started, this is what I would have done differently):

Do make sure you do one run of all of the major rewards a day (or however often you can) - one component, one merit roll, 10 threads.

Don't: Spend your threads to craft commons or uncommons - The drop rates are actually going to give you about twice the number of commons you need (relative to rares and very rares).

Don't: Convert your empyreans to threads. Save them up for a rare.

On average, you're going to get about one uncommon for every six or seven commons. (Again, on average - that's subject to the vagaries of the RNG), which is pretty close to what you need anyway. That's why my advice is not to waste threads on uncommons.

In about two weeks, you'll have the threads (and astral merits) to flat out craft directly a rare. By week two you'll also have about a 50-50 chance of having had one rare actually drop. So at the very least you'll have one Tier 3 power, and a 50% shot at having two. On the other hand, if you've been using your threads to craft commons and uncommons, you'll be several days away from having enough to craft the rare.

By around week three, on average you'll have the empyreans for a rare. So you'll have two Tier 3's crafted for sure, and there's a decent (65%) chance you'll have seen a rare drop by then, and have your third Tier 3 crafted.

No disrespect to Bill intended at all, but in my experience, it *is* a good idea to craft powers for Judgment and even Interface. By the time you've got your hands on what you need to make rares for Lore and Destiny, the drops alone are very likely to have given you an excess of commons and uncommons needed for Tier 1 or Tier 2 in Judgment and Interface.

And to be honest, I found having the Judgement nuke available really did measurably speed things up.

Anyway, that's my two-cents, for what it's worth.

EDIT: And getting anything to Tier 4 using DA is something you should consider a very long term goal. It's doable, but you need to be prepared for it to take a while. Specifically, on average, you'll need to save empyreans for about three months to have enough for a very rare. In that same three month time, you've got about a 90% chance of having seen a component roll give you a very rare as well.

Today, Pro Payne comes out of semi-retirement to face an old arc, and one it’s high time I gave an actual review. When MA first came out Small Fears was one of the first arcs I played, and I remembered it as “very well done.” It was atmospheric, very non-standard in how the objectives worked (for its time), and had a great story. These days, the arc, mechanically, really resembles a lot of the newer content the devs have put out – which is remarkable considering Small Fears did it first!

Suffice it to say, it’s an arc I’ve held in high regard. So let’s see how it has stood the test of time (taking into account, of course, some reworking by the author)…

Small Fears (Arc ID#12285, 5 stars)

I am faced with a psychic projection … it is a young child trying to tell me that something is coming. It is something that wants us to be afraid of the things that go bump in the night – the things that scared us as children, but that we stopped being afraid of when we grew up. It’s coming for all of us, but it will take the children first.

The projection warns me that it has already struck at the school, and the children there need to be rescued before it is too late.

The experience is unnerving, but rescuing children is the kind of thing heroes like me do, so I head to the school, hoping this isn’t some sort of trap…

It’s not a trap … or at least the psychic projection seemed to be telling the truth about there being real danger. The school looks run down and abandoned, and is crawling with what seem to be “phantom terrors” from a typical childhood.

Interestingly, the weakest of the phantoms are the ephemeral, but unreal, fears that torment young children – the monster under the bed, the thing hiding in your closet, and so on. But the more powerful phantoms are also more “real” in the sense they are “actual” threats from childhood – like the schoolyard bully.

One type of phantom stands out, however – occasionally I run across something called a phobophage – it’s like a little demonling that actively feeds on fear. They accompany the phantoms, and I suspect they might be related to whatever is driving this.

Note: Already the arc is as impressive and well done as I remember, and I’ve noticed the little “touches” that have been added here and there to improve it. The customs are (so far) not overpowering, and they have well done descriptions.

The first child I rescue hints that there are more children trapped here than I’d at first thought. He begs me to rescue Marilee too. I find her further in, and am able to free her from the phantoms that threaten her, feeding on her fear.

WOAH! The police (and Longbow) show up to help escort her out. Very interesting! It not only saves me from having to backtrack, it also makes what’s going on seem more like a “real world” problem – there really *is* something trying to push into our world here at the school, and the police are willing to back me up, but still need my ‘hero’ expertise to spearhead the effort.


Whoa! Who called in the cavalry?!

Note: As is, the police are actually a bit of a shock – and I am left wondering how they even knew to come? It might be a bit helpful to add an “on mission accept” clue mentioning that I’ve radioed the police for some backup while I was on my way… I *would* definitely put it in a clue, rather than in the mission dialog – I very much like how the dialog stays very atmospheric.

From Mialee I also learn that the monsters struck after school had already let out – the three students here had been practicing for band. I’m thankful they were the only ones here; if these creatures had more children available to feed on, it could have potentially been a disaster.

Deep within the school, I located the child whose psychic projection I originally saw (his real name is Jake). He is grateful for the rescue, and promises to tell me more.

Note: A few suggestions … the clue the child gives you says he tells you what he does at the door – I’d leave off “at the door” since you don’t really have to escort the child to the exit (and you aren’t at the exit at the time). It’s a very minor nitpick, and I’m aware that you can at least assume I’d lead the child out – but you can assume that anyway, and leaving off that little phrase will prevent the small chance of confusion the clue might cause. Also, Jake does mention that he “couldn’t tell me he was in the school too because he didn’t want the monsters to know I was coming.” Honestly, this doesn’t make much sense to me – I’d automatically *assumed* he was in the school, otherwise why would it be a psychic projection of him, and not the actual child running up to me on the street? He doesn’t really tell me anything when I rescue him – but I assume that’ll come in the mission debriefing anyway, so maybe the clue should just include the thanks for the rescue and a mention that he’ll tell me more once we get out of here.

In that vein, if possible (and based on how you’ve got it set up, this might *not* be possible) … I’m wondering if that second rescue would work better as a non-combat ally… that’d have Jake follow you around in case you stay in the mission to continue fighting things – gives a slightly better feel that you’re in the process of “leading him to safety”, even if you don’t have to actually take him back to the entrance (which is much appreciated).

After the school, Jake tells me that these “monsters come alive” will only get worse until I figure out who started all of this, and why. Whomever was responsible is hiding – but I get the eerie sense that they aren’t hiding from me. They’re hiding from whatever it is they’ve released. Whoever it is, they “show up so well” that Jake thinks he can track them down and point me in the right direction. I accept his offer, and head out to figure out who started all of this.

Jake’s guidance leads to an abandoned office. I go inside with more than a little trepidation. Whoever released the monsters is scared, and, like I said, it’s not of me. Jake warns that the monsters were just testing me before… now they’re going to “get serious.” Great.


Did I pass?

What’s even more alarming is that, although I’m not psychically sensitive, I can still feel … something … pulling me toward a box. I examine the box’s contents, and find documents from the BAF – documents signed by Praetor Tilman … Mother Mayhem. So she must have been the one who released these living nightmares. Oh, freaking wonderful. So whatever it is exactly that got released, it’s enough to scare the heck out of an insane psychopath with zero empathy capacity.

Well, I better find her and figure out what I’m up against, and why she thought it’d be a good idea it release whatever it is. I’m pretty sure I won’t like the answer to that second part…

I find Mother Mayhem in a reeking sewer below the office. She seems to think I’m another manifestation of whatever she’s released. Although the fight goes badly at first, I eventually prevail and bring her down.


This is what happens when you are too focused on getting a good screenshot, and not on actually fighting Momma Psychopath.

I’m able to determine that Tilman released something terrible in Praetoria. I gather she sought to control it – use it as a psychic weapon. But it got away from her, and was too powerful for her to stop. She fled here, to Primal Earth, to get away from it. Whatever it … she … is, it’s taken over the Asylum, and is powerful enough to bridge the dimensions. That means it isn’t just a thread to Praetoria – if I don’t do something about it, it’ll become a terrible threat to Primal Earth as well.

Note: I do like the way the arc’s been “modernized” to better reflect the more recent material on Praetoria.

But there’s a more immediate issue – Mother didn’t just waltz into Primal Earth through an open Portal Corp portal. There must be some sort of dimensional gateway near where I found her. It’d be best to find it – not only so I can close it when the time comes, but it may well be the most direct way to get to whatever is in the Asylum.

Jake confirms my suspicions – there *is* what he calls a “rip” nearby. I assume he gives me enough information to find it, and warns me that whatever is on the other side, in the Asylum, it’s *big* and very dangerous. Even the brief attempt he made to “scan” the Asylum almost allowed to it destroy his mind.

What’s worse, is the moment my back is turned, Mother gets away, heading right back through the rift. Something tells me I’m going to have to deal with her again soon.

Note: To be honest, it’s here where I think the story gets weakest … although it’s still very good. It not completely clear from the clues or dialog exactly how or where I found the dimensional rip… granted I can assume I stumbled across it down there, or Jake showed me where it was, but a bit of text making it more clear would be better… even perhaps “extending” mission two to have a final room “glowy” that serves as the rip become the objective after I defeat Mother… an objective that reads “Look for how Mother Mayhem got here…”

It did strain credibility just a bit for me to think Mother would get away too … I think that needs to be explained just a bit more realistically than “my back was turned.” She’s an extremely powerful and dangerous supervillain; I *wouldn’t* turn my back on her unless I was dang sure she was completely subdued. Maybe there’s some way to work in there something along the lines of the PPD put her in a transport wagon bound for the Zig, under very heavy guard. But when it gets there, the wagon is simply filled with a bunch of very confused police “guarding” an empty crate or something. Then, when I return to the rift, I see the evidence that somebody’s already passed through it.

Once at the Asylum, I set out looking whatever the source of these nightmares are. The Asylum actually seems strangely bare, and although the few things I find roaming it outwardly look like the monsters I’ve fought before, they do actually seem more powerful…

Note: Either that’s a nice touch – a new faction that looks like the old, but has more dangerous powers – or they’re using more dangerous debuffing powers that they weren’t using before…

I did notice the ‘patrols’ mentioning feeding on ample supplies of ‘madfood’ and commenting on how much of it there was … which seems strange given how empty the asylum appears. Perhaps a few “rescues” could be inserted with the monsters standing over the collapsed bodies of asylum inmates?

Deep in the Asylum, I can hear the “demoness” calling – her name is Phobia, and she’s eager for her next meal. I also find some sort of summoning altar. Evidently Mother either got it or stole it from Diabolique.

I locate and defeat Phobia … and (with some help from a Pheonix I know) defeat the giant pile of ambushes she pulls down on me.

See giant-pile-of-ambushes? Dying was always my plan! I think that’s what qualifies as ‘losing the battle but winning the war.’

Note: I know I’ve probably got to sound like a broken record by now, but flight gets *really* annoying on boss-class (and higher) foes … the customs already have a nasty tendency to run, and flight just makes tracking them down a miserable ordeal. Conceptually I have no problem with her being able to fly – but from a “fun” standpoint, it’s, well, not fun.

Even after her defeat, Phobia is not down and out … she’s got a phylactery somewhere that focuses her power. There’s no doubt she’s trying to reconstitute herself elsewhere in the Asylum.

To make matters worse, Mother Mayhem has sensed her defeat, and is trying to turn things to her advantage … with Phobia weakened, she shows up on the scene to try to reassert control over the demon. She even has the audacity to act like she somehow ‘tricked’ me into doing this, and this was really her plan all along.

Sadly for Mother, I doubt her plan involved me defeating her a second time.

I then move on to find and destroy Phobia’s phylactery.

The fights along the way are nothing short of brutal … I’m now positive these are “improved” foes, and they’ve been given a wide variety of rather nasty debuff powers that make the fights particularly vicious.

Note: By and large they feel a *bit* overpowered, but not too bad. I think it’s actually the “tar pits” those Phobophages are throwing down. Not only is it a *nasty* resistance debuff, it is also a very powerful slow – and its on a minion with a stealth ability. So you often don’t even see they’re there until right a they are throwing it (and oh my do they like to open with that power), and they’re almost always present in the spawn. So a lot of the fights involve me moving in slo-mo under multiple debuffs that put my resistances and defenses in the toilet toward bosses that (thanks to my debuffed resistance) are effectively doing double damage with autohit attacks – oh, and my self heal takes longer than normal to come back.

In any case, my first impression would be to remove the tar patch… that power seems to be the one causing the most problems. Oh, and did I mention you can’t jump while you’re in one, which can be really annoying on a map with as much ground clutter as the Asylum.

I have a hunch the phylactery is probably near the Asylum entrance, and lo and behold, I do find it there. I gather it up and destroy it … putting an end to Phobia once and for all.

Note: I’ll probably sound crazy for saying this … but that almost seemed anti-climactic. I almost wish destroying it at least “forced out” a weakened version of Phobia that I still needed to finish off, or something similar?

But in any case, with the threat defeated, I returned to Primal Earth.

Pros: It’s a great arc! Well written, interesting mechanics, and a very good story. The customs are well done, and the “trick” of increasing their power later in the story works very well. It’s just as good as I remember it, and now is even more in line with the current Praetorian storyline. Bottom line, the arc’s well worth playing!

Cons: Covered mostly in the notes and nitpicks. The “big” ones (although none are deal breakers) are (1) needs a stronger treatment regarding “finding the rift” IMO, (2) a better explanation of Mother Mayhem’s first escape (there’s gotta be something better than just “she gets away when your back is turned), and (3) the debuffs on the souped up group are a bit over-the-top, although I think it’s the tar patch power that really ends up being the proverbial back-breaking straw.

Overall: No other way to say it: it’s a great arc. Play it!

Score: 5.063