Worst luck ever, or systematic?

I just tried to convert a level 13 Blessing of the Zephyr travel speed/endo enhancement into the +4 KB protection enhancement using the "three converter option". It gave me the Travel speed one, so I bought more converters and tried again. I tried to convert it a total of 5 times and never got the +4 KB protection piece. Now, on this character, I already HAVE one +4 KB protection enhancement (in Fly) and I was hoping to get a second one to put into Recall Friend, but apparently I'm unable to do this after 5 attempts. I did the math and the odds of NOT getting the +4KB enhancer after 5 repeated attempts is like 3%. This makes me think I'm either the unluckiest person on earth or the mechanics of enhancement conversion are such that it looks at what you already have and tries to anticipate your needs by giving you something that you don't have already. Does anyone have any information about this that could shed some light on it for me? If there's some systematic rule that causes the +4KB enhancement not to happen, or that makes the in-set conversion process anything other than random, it would have been nice to know that before burning through like 30 Astral Merits and several million influence on converters. There was nothing about this in the write-up on converters on paragonwiki when I last looked, which was 1-2 days ago.

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It's a randomized system. Sorry for your poor luck

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I wouldnt be surprised if the "procs" were weighted lower. Gamblers never seem to want to change into the recharge bonus. its rather annoying.

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So far it has taken me 6 converters each for 11 of the 12 zephyrs I've converted (the 12th took 3). Each time it went to the version with end reduction before becoming the -KB one. I was getting ready to bug it until my 12th conversion went straight to -KB

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-Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein.
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I converted 10 Celerities/Unboundeds from non-stealth to stealths on the first try. Then the bad luck hit and it took 7 tries to convert the next one.

Random is Random.

edit: My last two conversions, a level 16 rare (can't remember what) converted into an Unbounded Stealth in one shot. I wasn't even trying on that. Next was a level 19 Triage converted within healing set to Regenerative Tissue +Regen. I've had way too much good luck on these rolls.

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Just bad luck, my friend. I have a toon that wanted to convert a Luck of the Gambler: Defense into a Luck of the Gambler: Recharge Speed. This toon had 37 converters on hand. I thought, "Ah..no problem...should just take 10ish or so..."...well, 36 converters later ...back to a LotG: Defense. Ugh. *TWELVE times I converted that thing and kept getting EVERYTHING but the +Recharge*.

And ...same character a few days before...had a Gladiator's Javelin PVP enhancement, was all geared up to burn up all my converters to make it into a Shield Wall: +Res....used ONE converter boom...up it pops!! From a Gladiator's Javelin to a Shield Wall: +Res with just ONE converter.

Sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're not!

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I have had worse luck at least one time: Some White Wolf game, I picked up 14 damage dice (7+ is a success on a D10) and didn't roll a single success. That's something like a 0.07% chance.

Sorry for your run of crappy luck.

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@Boltcutter in game.

3% is unlikely, but not astronomically so. It's only slightly less likely than missing when your hit chance is capped... and as I'm sure you've noticed, that happens quite frequently. You've basically encountered the game equivalent of hitting every red light on your way to a destination: not a likely occurrence, but still common enough that almost anyone old enough to drive is all too familiar with it.

...incidentally, although BotZ is less unreliable than many sets since it only has 3 pieces, it's still generally not worthwhile to attempt to convert to a specific item. Too random and unreliable for too little return. For 32 Astrals or ~60m Inf, you can buy the recipe outright, guaranteed.

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3% chance of something bad like that happening means that, on average, if a hundred people attempted that same thing, 3 of them will experience that bad outcome.

And then those 3 will come to the forums to wonder if something's wrong, while the silent 97% majority go about their business.

What this shows is how we pay special attention to unlikely outcomes, which, though unlikely, still do happen. Especially on a planet with billions of folks doing millions of things. This means that those one-in-a-million things happen all the time. And when they get brought to everyone's attention because of how odd or unlikely it is... then people think it's more likely that it is... or that if it's something bad happening to them... they're being singled out in some way.

Meanwhile, random is just being random.

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