Longer-term price trends?

So, I'm trying to figure out what's up with prices. In particular, a while back during the Great Respecathon, I got a couple of Basilisk's Gaze quads (L30) for about 70M (recipe). Now they're 120-150, and I've seen as high as 200. Should I just be waiting that out, or did I just get super lucky back when I got them for 70?

The other thing that stands out is that on a lot of purples, if I bid middle of the last 5, it's been a week and they're consistently above that range. Is that normal, abnormal? I'm sort of guessing that purple prices were briefly depressed by the rush of people doing the incarnate content for the first time, so I should probably just accept that I'm gonna have to raise those bids.

Thoughts? Advice?

For most stuff, I think prices may have peaked after the combination of the great Monkey roast, plus the wave of I19 respecs. Prices of things recently expensive I have been selling have been falling this week.

Of course, that could be a short-term trend. I'll know better when I see what they do on the weekend. In my experience, the average price of given stuff rises on the weekend, presumably because "want it nao" demand is higher.

Purples have been doing some interesting things. It's not clear to me where they are trending. Lowball pricing has been on a steady rise on several of them. Their prices do seem to fall mid-week, but not as much. That could just be because their rate of supply is a lot lower than most other stuff, so their long-term trend tends to be even longer term than some other goods.

I don't have any thoughts on Basilisk's Gaze, but for purples, there is a lot
of volatility in those.

I've gotten some great lowball deals, but I also have a couple sitting for
sale now for a few weeks as the price range shifted.

It really seems to be a case of timing for most of them.

As for longer-term, we've got more L50s playing recently which should,
eventually boost supply somewhat (after they get done slotting what they
want to keep themselves).

I also have a sneaking suspicion that drop rates may have been raised
slightly, although I have nothing but an anecdotal gut feel based on my
drops to support that (I've gotten several purples in the past 3 weeks,
which seems high to me compared to when I was actively running L50s
before).

If that's an actual change, then both factors should trend prices downward,
but do keep in mind that purples are still quite rare, so they're always going
to have a lot of volatility built in. More 50's is more supply, but also more
demand as well, and certainly, some L50s working the Incarnate Trail will
also be looking to slot purples in their builds.

I wouldn't expect any dramatic shift from what we're seeing in the purple
segment already.


Regards,
4

I had bought a couple of sets of Basilisk Gaze the week I19 was released with the intention of slotting them into my Dom's holds. I changed my mind, and ended up selling them the following week. The prices had gone up enough in that time frame that I made about 200 million or so inf on the deal. I see that prices are even higher now. I suspect the high prices on LOTG's and Miracles are affecting the supply of other rares since people may be buying those recipes directly to sell instead of rolling. We'll have to see, but I don't think prices will fall back down to pre-I19 levels.

It does seem that all the inflation is in the top-end goods. This may be one of those great economic discoveries like "People want to buy stuff they like". Also, there is some completely crazy behavior by people who are just throwing money around. I bought [redacted] for 70 million, instant buy, added around 10 million of salvage, crafted it, and sold it overnight for 150 million. Buy It Nao doesn't even cover that. I suspect this is "people playing their 50's a lot and making a lot of inf" but I don't have an actual explanation.