Arbitrage in GR


all_hell

 

Posted

Quote:
Can you give us some more detail on how morality arcs will work, and approximately how much time it will take to switch from Hero to Vigilante, and then from Vigilante to Rogue? by mentalgiant

Posi- There is a cooldown timer that will slow the process. We are still working on the exact numbers, but we're eyeballing a week's worth of work to switch one degree.
Yeah, I think that puts the last nail in that coffin. I'm sure there will be people who do it out of concept, or because they haven't (yet) figured out how to earn money faster, but at that duration I can't imagine anything you could cart from side to side that would be worth selling for either practiced marketeers, people who play at 50 a lot, or people who earn merits quickly*.

*I can still imagine taking something across because you just can't find it on the other side.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

I blame high prices on arbitrators.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
Yeah, I think that puts the last nail in that coffin. I'm sure there will be people who do it out of concept, or because they haven't (yet) figured out how to earn money faster, but at that duration I can't imagine anything you could cart from side to side that would be worth selling for either practiced marketeers, people who play at 50 a lot, or people who earn merits quickly*.

*I can still imagine taking something across because you just can't find it on the other side.

If you are taking a character from one side to the other, it is at least a way to get them startup funds on the other side.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smurphy View Post
I blame high prices on arbitrators.
arbitrageurs


 

Posted

I don't expect it has much to do with how much you play. The term "cooldown timer" just tells me it won't let you migrate your alignment faster than a certain real-world calendar day rate.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
I don't expect it has much to do with how much you play. The term "cooldown timer" just tells me it won't let you migrate your alignment faster than a certain real-world calendar day rate.
There probably will be some kind of cooldown timer, I'm just wondering because the quote says "we're eyeballing a week's worth of work to switch one degree".


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The Melee Teaming Guide for Melee Mans

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
arbitraitors
Arbiters!


Since things cost more in CoV.... =P


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silas View Post
There probably will be some kind of cooldown timer, I'm just wondering because the quote says "we're eyeballing a week's worth of work to switch one degree".
I read that as it's going to take a week of calendar time to add a notch to your alignment belt regardless of how much 'work' you do in that time (above a certain minimum).


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Considering just how much farming still occurs...*sigh*...

There will always be someone who is constantly running the vigilante/renegade missions to change status and 'gun-run' recipes between markets.


The plastic tips at the end of shoelaces are called aglets. Their true purpose is sinister.
--The Question, JLU

 

Posted

I think they *want* some permeability, just not so much that it ends up creating a de facto market merger.


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Derangedpolygot View Post
There will always be someone who is constantly running the vigilante/renegade missions to change status and 'gun-run' recipes between markets.
At a scale of a week to do it, though*, it's just not worth the time to actually go back and forth. There are better ways to make money just by staying on one side or other. And it's fairly pointless from a supply rate perspective too. Even on villains, you'd do better to exemplar, or earn merits on coop/rogue TFs and spend merits on things.

It's like people who arbitrage salvage from the market to NPCs. Sure, when you're low level, or if you don't know any better, it's decent money for buying DOs or whatever. But if you actually look at what's possible, it's not something I think it makes sense for people to stick with, barring concept/RP activities, etc.

*If you read what he said, they're currently planning a week per alignment shift. It takes two shifts to fully switch sides enough to use the other market, so you're looking at two weeks per trip.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

depending on how much actual gameplay is required to move one alignment peg it might still be something an efficient player might try.

If it didn't take long to do the 'work' and the cooldown was the sticking point (and assuming they even let us haul 'gear' across in our inventory), someone could arrange a conga-line of alts they don't play regularly to ferry stuff around.

I expect the process to be tedious enough to discourage casual use but not so arduous as to totally eliminate cross-faction portaging.


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
At a scale of a week to do it, though*, it's just not worth the time to actually go back and forth.
Back and forth, perhaps not. But since I have thousands of merits blue-side and hardly any on red, I'm planning to load up one mule with stuff like LotG to deliver to my villains that need it.


Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project

 

Posted

One way, or as a pure mule I can see it. It just definitely doesn't seem worth attempting ongoing (edit) bi-directional arbitrage.

If one is looking at it from a limited time played perspective, same-side, straight up marketeering seems like a better investment for limited online time. Especially since you can't directly fold profits on one side into purchases on the other. You have to port something to sell for a profit on in both directions, which is going to eat deeply into margins (if you can even make a profit in both directions). I suspect the main use will indeed be muling.

I intend to ... "reverse mule"? I'll probably take a villain or two heroside, earn wealth over there and equip with it, then transfer back later. That might be especially attractive since they also said you will keep your epic/patron selection until your next respec, depending on what epic pool powers they make available to villains.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smurphy View Post
I blame high prices on arbitrators.
I respectfully disagree with you, Mr. Bunny. I am rather certain high prices are due to lack of price caps.

RagManX


"if the market were religion Fulmens would be Moses and you'd be L. Ron Hubbard. " --Nethergoat to eryq2

The economy is not broken. The players are

 

Posted

Actually, as I see it the one week per shift timer is completely irrelevant if you have 14 characters. Set them up so one finishes switching each day. Before completing the shift load the character up. You're moving goods fast enough that they're relevant when they arrive. Essentially all the timer does is determine how many characters you have to have going through the process.

which makes Silas' question the most relevant. One week, playing how many hours per day?

I mean, it's not like we care which character has the money since we'll be able to email it around. As long as one character completes the shift each day you get a full inventory load of goods swapping sides per day.


"Hmm, I guess I'm not as omniscient as I thought" -Gavin Runeblade.
I can be found, outside of paragon city here.
Thank you everyone at Paragon and on Virtue. When the lights go out in November, you'll find me on Razor Bunny.

 

Posted

But it's not simply a process of click a button then wait a week. You have to go through an arc to change alignment. Given the week cooldown, I'd expect the arc to be aiming for at least 3-4 hours of play. To run your 14 character conga line, you'd have to run a multi-hour arc EVERY DAY.

P.S. I'm guessing on the time, but they TOLD US it would be an arc.


Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
But it's not simply a process of click a button then wait a week. You have to go through an arc to change alignment. Given the week cooldown, I'd expect the arc to be aiming for at least 3-4 hours of play. To run your 14 character conga line, you'd have to run a multi-hour arc EVERY DAY.

P.S. I'm guessing on the time, but they TOLD US it would be an arc.
Even if it took me 30 minutes per character to do it, there's no way in hell I'm going to bank that I'd do better predicting the markets in both directions two weeks in advance than I would playing a L50 on each side 30 minutes a day in order to sustain a pipeline of switching characters. If I could instead play one character every day for 1 hour, I'd spend it earning merits. If I assume I'm not really going to play at all, then just marketeering on each side looks even more attractive.

If I want to get stuff from blue to red because the red market is sparse, I'm just going to mule stuff over or migrate characters back and forth with gear, not actually arbitrage goods for sale on the red market.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

If people do smuggle and the marketears kry about it, it is a first. As in the first time they correctly used the term "arbitrage."

Any of my toons I actually play will be the blue-ish that can do both content sets and use blue markets (I think vigilante but I don't care enough about concept to check).


Infinity and Victory mostly
dUmb, etc.
lolz PvP anymore, Market PvP for fun and profit

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
Even if it took me 30 minutes per character to do it,
Since they intend (i.e. will force) it to be a week-long task, I figured more like 3-4 hours of stuff to do. I saw someone in another thread say 15 hours. I think you're fooling yourself if you think 30 minutes of play and one week of sitting on your hands will let you change sides.

Oh, and whatever it turns out to be, double it since it's two steps (two arcs and enforced two week cooldown) to go all the way across.


Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
Since they intend (i.e. will force) it to be a week-long task, I figured more like 3-4 hours of stuff to do. I saw someone in another thread say 15 hours. I think you're fooling yourself if you think 30 minutes of play and one week of sitting on your hands will let you change sides.
Oh, no, don't think I expect 30 minutes to be sufficient. I was saying that even if it only took 30 minutes, I wouldn't make a conga-line of side-rotating characters.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Yep I won't be doing anything redside at all except moving to blue permanently. I had a bunch of pet recipes on blue side to take over but it won't be worth the effort and I'm not altruistic enough where the Black Market is concerned to waste my time shuffling them over.

If a Master Mind wants them he/she can spend the 3 or 4 weeks required to come get them (and then go back). Anything that hasn't sold in the first 6 weeks of GR will get pulled and vendored.


-Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein.
-I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use. - Galileo Galilei
-When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty. - Thomas Jefferson

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
But it's not simply a process of click a button then wait a week. You have to go through an arc to change alignment. Given the week cooldown, I'd expect the arc to be aiming for at least 3-4 hours of play. To run your 14 character conga line, you'd have to run a multi-hour arc EVERY DAY.

P.S. I'm guessing on the time, but they TOLD US it would be an arc.
I mostly agree on this. But I also know people speed run arcs and taskforces in far less time than the devs intend. Think of Katie Hannons and Edens by speeders compared to average. Until we know, it's all theory. And I know that I oroboros missions much faster than intended and I am a crappy player. Good players do way better than me. There were a bunch of them over time like that. Think about the Kheld arc that was milked for merits for so long as an example. So the real question is, one week per step at how much time per week?

Quote:
Even if it took me 30 minutes per character to do it, there's no way in hell I'm going to bank that I'd do better predicting the markets in both directions two weeks in advance than I would playing a L50 on each side 30 minutes a day in order to sustain a pipeline of switching characters. If I could instead play one character every day for 1 hour, I'd spend it earning merits. If I assume I'm not really going to play at all, then just marketeering on each side looks even more attractive.
I don't understand why people keep saying this. You only need to predict the market ONE MISSION in advance. However long the final mission that lets you finish the process in switching sides, that's how long in advance you need to predict the market. Actually not even that long since you get do 99.99999% of the mission, exit out, load up, go back in and finish, then bang you're on the other side.

It's not like you load up, do two weeks worth of missions during which you have zero access to all of the following: your super group base storage, player-to-player trade, email, and the market. Or if the devs have said somewhere that once you accept the first mission, you are locked out of all of that until you complete the side switch, please show me where.

So why would you assume you need to predict the market 2 weeks in advance? All you need is to know if you have a potential for profit right now.

Also, if it is a story arc, we might get merits out of it. I'd be amazed if it was a worthwhile amount though. Hell, it might be a great farm mission. Or even a decent farm mission. It could have novel mechanics that are particularly fun and people want to reply it for that. As an example, I love the faultline missions for the four-way EB/hero fight in the climax. Again, until it is implemented we won't know for sure. Assuming there will be zero rewards or it will take too much time is just as premature as assuming it will be easy and profitable.


"Hmm, I guess I'm not as omniscient as I thought" -Gavin Runeblade.
I can be found, outside of paragon city here.
Thank you everyone at Paragon and on Virtue. When the lights go out in November, you'll find me on Razor Bunny.