Rare recipe weight project

I merged the lists from Hell Jumper and Energizing Ion, and ended up with this list of 645 drops:

Count   Recipes 15-19                                           Percent
35      Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient                    5,43%
30      Tempest: Chance for end drain                             4,65%
30      Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech                  4,65%
29      Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist                          4,50%
25      Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech                         3,88%
25      Impervium Armor: Resistance                               3,88%
24      Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res                             3,72%
24      Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End                             3,72%
23      Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow                          3,57%
22      Kismet: Def/End/Rech                                      3,41%
22      Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage             3,41%
22      Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech                          3,41%
21      Eradication: Chance for energy damage                     3,26%
21      Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range                                  3,26%
18      Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage              2,79%
17      Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech                        2,64%
16      Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech                              2,48%
16      Gift of the Ancients: Defense                             2,48%
16      Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize                      2,48%
14      Theft of Essence: Chance for +End                         2,17%
14      Celerity: +Stealth                                        2,17%
14      Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed                     2,17%
14      Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech                              2,17%
13      Edict of the Master: Damage                               2,02%
12      Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets                 1,86%
12      Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage                  1,86%
11      Blessing of the Zephyr: Knockback Reduction (4 points)    1,71%
10      Basilisk's Gaze: Acc/End/Rech/Hold                        1,55%
 9      Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End                          1,40%
 9      Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech                                1,40%
 9      Unbounded Leap: +Stealth                                  1,40%
 8      Cloud Senses: Chance for negative energy damage           1,24%
 7      Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech                                1,09%
 7      Time & Space Manipulation: +Stealth                       1,09%
 6      Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets        0,93%
 6      Theft of Essence: Acc/End/Rech                            0,93%
 5      Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech                              0,78%
 5      Debilitative Action: Acc/Immob/Rech                       0,78%
 4      Debilitative Action: Chance for Stun                      0,62%
 4      Cacophony: Chance for Energy Damage                       0,62%
 4      Induced Coma: Chance for Recharge Slow                    0,62%
 4      Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient                  0,62%
 4      Freebird: +Stealth                                        0,62%
 2      Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech                         0,31%
 2      Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech                               0,31%

Super stuff so far. Thanks Leandro and ION for putting it up in Google. I took a different look at the data and grouped it by the 28 Generic IO Set types. Forgive my formatting.

       Running                                         # in Range      # in Range 
          Average          Summary Type           10-14   %      15-19   %
           5.3%            Accurate - Defense       32    6.4%      20     4.2%
           3.0%            Accurate - to Hit          14    2.8%      15     3.2%
           2.6%            Accurate Heal              13    2.6%      12     2.5%
           0.0%            AOE                             0    0.0%       0      0.0%
           1.6%            Confuse                      11    2.2%       5      1.1%
           6.6%            Defense                      28    5.6%      36     7.6%
           0.0%            Defense Debuff              0    0.0%       0      0.0%
           0.0%            End Mod                       0    0.0%       0      0.0%
           2.0%            Fear                           15    3.0%       5      1.1%
           3.7%            Heal                           23    4.6%      13      2.7%
          13.8%           Hold                           81   16.2%      54    11.4%
            1.5%           Immobilization               9     1.8%       6      1.3%
            0.0%           Knockback                    0     0.0%       0     0.0%
            8.5%           Melee                         34     6.8%     49    10.3%
            7.6%           PBAOE                        37     7.4%     37     7.8%
            3.0%           Pet Damage                  9     1.8%     20     4.2%
            5.4%           Ranged                        19     3.8%     34      7.2%
            4.6%           Recharge Pets             35     7.0%     10      2.1%
            9.6%           Resist                        32     6.4%     62     13.1%
            2.3%           Sleep                         16     3.2%      6      1.3%
            7.5%           Slow                          44     8.8%     29     6.1%
            0.0%           Snipe                          0      0.0%      0     0.0%
            5.0%           Stun                          26     5.2%     23     4.8%
            0.0%           Taunt                         0      0.0%      0      0.0%
            0.0%           To Hit Buff                  0      0.0%      0      0.0%
            0.0%           To Hit Debuff               0      0.0%      0      0.0%
            3.0%           Travel                        0      0.0%      29     6.1%
            3.4%           Universal Travel           23     4.6%      10     2.1%

I'm sure, but cannot produce proof, that IO's are weighted by individual recipe and not by category. Thus, you are dramatically more likely to get a Miracle: Recovery than a Miracle: End/Rech . (When we start doing L20+ rolls, we will find out if my words are tasty.) I believe that the weighting of the recipes is also fairly coarse- perhaps weighted on a scale of 1 to 5?

A very rough estimate of weightings gives me around 121 "points" of weighting, so each "point" is around 5 or 5.1. So we would see clumping around 25, 20, 15, 10 and 5- with a lot of noise on each, and more on the lower numbers. Looks like that to me.

I can continue to roll to help the sample if we want to continue this testing just let me know what levels need to be rolled and I will roll and post the results

I think more rolls on the 15-19 range would be great. It has enough variety in categories, sets, and IOs to give us a good breakdown. I've started doing a Posi TF every night, but it'll be a bit before I earn enough Merits to make it worthwhile to copy my char (many times) and start rolling.

I have made a possibly related observation for AE Ticket rolls. By using a very rapid set of clicks I have received several recipes within a single set as well duplicate recipes on numerous occasions as I cash out farming. A slower rate seems to be more random It also appears to have some alphabetical results when I do get recipes within the same sets. Has anybody else noted this trend?

Yes. That's how random number generation works on computers.

And that's how random number generation works in the real world too. Humans are pattern matching creatures and if you feed us random noise we find patterns anyway. Faces in clouds is the classic example, but if you watch people playing roulette, you'll see the same thing.

Just got off test. Did 500 random rolls in the 15-19 range (all 9999 merits on Rad/EM Blaster, level 50, from I16 closed beta, which gave me 499 rolls, and then I went and did a quick Ouro flashback to get the merits for the last roll). Sorted, calculated, and figured out percentage weightings for each particular recipe and recipe type (i.e. percent of total for the Basilisk quad, Basilisk -rech, and hold recipes in general). Data is publicly viewable on Google Docs here (and yes, I've checked to ensure someone who's not signed into Google will have at least read-only access). If someone wants the original Excel file, I can provide that as well.

I have access to six or seven more level 50s on test with capped merits, so if we continue this experiment I'd be glad to help out (plus calculations for the next run will go faster since I've got the backend work on the Excel spreadsheet done).

EDIT: My data also seems to support Fulmens' hypothesis that weighting is based on individual recipes as opposed to sets, unless a sample size of 500 rolls is still to small to give meaningful results.

Did somre more rolls here are the results all in the 15-19 all clicking as fast as I could:

You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Acc/End/Rech/Hold (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Chance for Energy Damage (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech (Recipe)
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Chance for Stun (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Acc/End/Rech/Hold (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Time & Space Manipulation: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe)
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Chance for Stun (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Time & Space Manipulation: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Chance for Stun (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Freebird: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Blessing of the Zephyr: Knockback Reduction (4 points) (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Chance for negative energy damage (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Chance for +End (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Blessing of the Zephyr: Knockback Reduction (4 points) (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Freebird: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Chance for Energy Damage (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Chance for negative energy damage (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Acc/Immob/Rech (Recipe).

More Rolls:

You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Chance for negative energy damage (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Freebird: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Acc/End/Rech/Hold (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Chance for +End (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Acc/End/Rech/Hold (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe).
You received Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Blessing of the Zephyr: Knockback Reduction (4 points) (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Acc/Immob/Rech (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Chance for Stun (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Acc/Immob/Rech (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Time & Space Manipulation: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Acc/End/Rech/Hold (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient (Recipe).
You received Theft of Essence: Chance for +End (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: Resistance (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Blessing of the Zephyr: Knockback Reduction (4 points) (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Induced Coma: Chance for Recharge Slow (Recipe).
You received Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe).
You received Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Chance for negative energy damage (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Freebird: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Blessing of the Zephyr: Knockback Reduction (4 points) (Recipe).
You received Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Celerity: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe).
You received Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe).
You received Debilitative Action: Acc/Immob/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe).
You received Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Chance for energy damage (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Tempest: Chance for end drain (Recipe).
You received Unbounded Leap: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Kismet: Def/End/Rech (Recipe).
You received Freebird: +Stealth (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).
You received Edict of the Master: Damage (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize (Recipe).
You received Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe).
You received Cloud Senses: Chance for negative energy damage (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage (Recipe).
You received Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe).
You received Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets (Recipe).
You received Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe).
You received Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range (Recipe).

Thanks for all of the rolls. I may have time tonight, but if not then it'll be a few days before I can analyze all of these.

I parsed all of Hell_Jumper's drops, however there are three lines that are suspicious:
You received Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech (Recipe)
You received Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res (Recipe)
You received Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize

Maybe it's an artifact of copy/paste, but the first two are missing a dot and the end, and the third is missing (Recipe) entirely. In any case, here's the full list, with 1150 rolls:

Count  Rate  Percent  Recipes 15-19
58     1/19    5,04%  Tempest: Chance for end drain
57     1/20    4,96%  Pounding Slugfest: Chance to disorient
54     1/21    4,70%  Pulverizing Fisticuffs: Acc/Dam/End/Rech
48     1/23    4,17%  Impervious Skin: End/Rech/Res
46     1/25    4,00%  Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist
42     1/27    3,65%  Eradication: Chance for energy damage
42     1/27    3,65%  Salvo: Acc/Dam/End/Range
41     1/28    3,57%  Impervium Armor: Resistance
40     1/28    3,48%  Basilisk's Gaze: Chance for -Rech
38     1/30    3,30%  Kismet: Def/End/Rech
38     1/30    3,30%  Impeded Swiftness: End/Rech/Slow
37     1/31    3,22%  Impeded Swiftness: Chance for Smashing Damage
36     1/31    3,13%  Eradication: Acc/Dam/Rech/End
34     1/33    2,96%  Neuronic Shutdown: Chance for Psionic damage
33     1/34    2,87%  Neuronic Shutdown: Acc/Hold/Rech
32     1/35    2,78%  Gift of the Ancients: Defense
31     1/37    2,70%  Razzle Dazzle: Chance for Immobilize
28     1/41    2,43%  Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed
26     1/44    2,26%  Celerity: +Stealth
26     1/44    2,26%  Regenerative Tissue: End/Heal/Rech
26     1/44    2,26%  Unbounded Leap: +Stealth
24     1/47    2,09%  Shield Breaker: Acc/End/Rech
24     1/47    2,09%  Edict of the Master: Damage
24     1/47    2,09%  Commanding Presence: Acc/Dam/End
22     1/52    1,91%  Call to Arms: Defense Bonus Aura for Pets
22     1/52    1,91%  Razzle Dazzle: Acc/Stun/Rech
18     1/63    1,57%  Call to Arms: End/Dam/Rech
18     1/63    1,57%  Shield Breaker: Chance for Lethal Damage
17     1/67    1,48%  Theft of Essence: Chance for +End
16     1/71    1,39%  Blessing of the Zephyr: Knockback Reduction (4 points)
15     1/76    1,30%  Basilisk's Gaze: Acc/End/Rech/Hold
15     1/76    1,30%  Cloud Senses: Acc/End/Rech
13     1/88    1,13%  Cloud Senses: Chance for negative energy damage
13     1/88    1,13%  Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets
11     1/104   0,96%  Theft of Essence: Acc/End/Rech
11     1/104   0,96%  Induced Coma: Acc/Sleep/Rech
11     1/104   0,96%  Unspeakable Terror: Chance for Disorient
10     1/115   0,87%  Time & Space Manipulation: +Stealth
 9     1/127   0,78%  Cacophony: Acc/Confuse/Rech
 9     1/127   0,78%  Freebird: +Stealth
 9     1/127   0,78%  Debilitative Action: Acc/Immob/Rech
 8     1/143   0,70%  Debilitative Action: Chance for Stun
 7     1/164   0,61%  Unspeakable Terror: Acc/Fear/Rech
 6     1/191   0,52%  Cacophony: Chance for Energy Damage
 5     1/230   0,43%  Induced Coma: Chance for Recharge Slow

By the way, I imported the data into the Wiki, here: Random Rare Recipe Drop Rates

Hey you forgot to add my 500 15-19 rolls.

I miss the old character copy tool. This one seems to have a really, really long wait time between copies. I'm using a refresh plugin to see if I can make a lot of copies while I do something else, otherwise it'll take forever.

Should we continute the test? and if so what level range do you want tested next?

Well, I started 20-24, but the character copy tool keeps saying "copy in progress" on my character for the last 15 hours at least (it's been stuck since I posted the last message), so I can't add any rolls until it decides to work. The data on the first 25 rolls I managed to do is on the wiki.

Edit: well, I managed to get another copy through, so that's 25 more rolls. And now the copy tool is again making me wait forever.