Log Files Wanted for Drop Rate Analysis
By
AgentMountaineer,
Posted on: 2009-10-01 04:37 in The Market and Inventions
Quote:
Any chance of getting a preveiw of what these 12,000 have dropped?
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Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin
Thanks to everyone who's sent me log files. We have 12,000 defeats so far which is a good start.
Keep 'em coming.  |
Quote:
The summary so far is that recipe and salvage drop rates are consistent with the Wiki entries. This may be boring but it's nice to know. |
Originally Posted by Ravenous33
Any chance of getting a preveiw of what these 12,000 have dropped?
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I'm planning to do some more detailed analysis in the next couple of days. I need to tweak DropStats first to help me get the numbers right. Once I've done that, I'll publish what I've got.
I don't want to publish any numbers at the moment as they won't be accurate and I don't want to lead people on a wild goose chase.
Quote:
LOL no worries I am anxious to see how all of this progresss just for grins |
Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin
The summary so far is that recipe and salvage drop rates are consistent with the Wiki entries. This may be boring but it's nice to know.
I'm planning to do some more detailed analysis in the next couple of days. I need to tweak DropStats first to help me get the numbers right. Once I've done that, I'll publish what I've got. I don't want to publish any numbers at the moment as they won't be accurate and I don't want to lead people on a wild goose chase. |
I figured I'd share the results of my 5,334 solo kills in the last few days. Quick version: four purples, two costume recipes.
Code:
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Archie Gremlin's Drop Stats v0.5.0
http://www.glasspaw.com/dropstats/
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Analysing full log.txt
Defeats Minion Lieut. Boss Under. Pet Grey Unknown
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5,334 3,232 2,102 0 0 0 0 0
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Drops Total Common Uncommon Rare Very Rare
----------------------------------------------------
Pool A 203 150 40 9 4
Pool E 2
Salvage 455 351 91 13
Inspirations 2,462 1,681 781 0
----------------------------------------------------
Other Drops
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Inf. Rewards 5,334 (13,376,591 inf, 0 xp, 110,000 debt)
Prestige 177,327
Enhancements 59 single origin enhancements
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Pool DropRate Drops Expected Mobs
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pool A 2.73% 203 173-227 7,436 minion equivalents
Pool E 0.06% 2 ? 3,232 minions
Salvage 7.55% 455 443-525 6,028 minion equivalents
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
(1 in 20 runs will be outside the expected range.)
203 Pool A recipes (Mob Defeats)
4 very rare recipes
Coercive Persuasion : Confuse Duration/End Reduction (Superior) (Recipe)
Fortunata Hypnosis : Sleep Duration (Superior) (Recipe)
Hecatomb : Chance for Negative Energy Dam (Recipe)
Hecatomb : Rech/Acc (Superior) (Recipe)
9 rare recipes
Aegis: Resistance (Recipe)
Devastation: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe)
Ghost Widow's Embrace: Acc/Rech (Recipe)
Ghost Widow's Embrace: End/Hold (Recipe)
Sovereign Right: Accuracy (Recipe)
Stupefy: End/Stun (Recipe)
Temporary Power: Power Analyzer Mk III
Temporary Power: Power Analyzer Mk III
Undermined Defenses: Recharge (Recipe)
40 uncommon recipes
Adjusted Targeting : Rech/End Reduction (Recipe)
Adjusted Targeting : To Hit Buff (Recipe)
Adjusted Targeting : To Hit Buff/Rech/End Reduction (Recipe)
Air Burst: Acc/Dam (Recipe)
Blood Mandate: Dam/End (Recipe)
Cleaving Blow: Dam/End (Recipe)
Crushing Impact: Acc/Dam (Recipe)
Crushing Impact: Dam/Rech (Recipe)
Dampened Spirits : To Hit DeBuff/Rech (Recipe)
Detonation: Dam/Acc/End (Recipe)
Detonation: Dam/End/Range (Recipe)
Detonation: Dam/Rech (Recipe)
Efficacy Adaptor : End Mod (Recipe)
Enfeebled Operation: Acc/Immob (Recipe)
Essence of Curare: Acc/Hold (Recipe)
Essence of Curare: Acc/Rech (Recipe)
Essence of Curare: End/Hold (Recipe)
Exploit Weakness: Dam/End (Recipe)
Jaunt: Range (Recipe)
Jaunt: Range/Endurance (Recipe)
Kinetic Crash : Knockback/Dam/Endurance (Recipe)
Lethargic Repose: Acc/Sleep/Rech (Recipe)
Mocking Beratement: Taunt/Rech/Range (Recipe)
Multi-strike: Acc/End (Recipe)
Multi-strike: Dam/Acc/End (Recipe)
Multi-strike: Dam/End/Rech (Recipe)
Nightmare: Acc/Fear (Recipe)
Nightmare: Fear/Range (Recipe)
Perfect Zinger: Taunt (Recipe)
Perplex: Acc/Confuse/Rech (Recipe)
Perplex: Confuse/Rech (Recipe)
Quickfoot: Endurance (Recipe)
Quickfoot: Endurance (Recipe)
Quickfoot: Run Speed (Recipe)
Rope-a-dope: Acc/Stun/Rech (Recipe)
Tempered Readiness: Acc/Slow (Recipe)
Tempered Readiness: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe)
Thunderstrike: Acc/Dam/Rech (Recipe)
Thunderstrike: Dam/End/Rech (Recipe)
Undermined Defenses: Defense Debuff/Endurance Reduction (Recipe)
150 common recipes
2 Pool E recipes (Costume Pieces)
Costume Piece: Cherubic wings
Costume Piece: Rocket boots
www.SaveCOH.com: Calls to Action and Events Calendar
This is what 3700 heroes in a single zone looks like.
Thanks to @EnsonsDeath for the GVE code that made me VIP again!
Just sent 16 megs of logs, mostly soloing at +8 w/o a purple to help bring down your drop rate average.
BTW - I never got dropstats to work. Not sure if its a Vista issue vs the instructions posted, or if I'm dumb or what, but I can usually get this kind of stuff to run no prob.
How much longer are you going to be collecting stats? This Double XP weekend has me doing a lot of teaming. If anything I will get back to collecting data on Monday.
Who do I have to *&^% around here to get more Targeted AoE recipes added?
Arc Name: Tsoo In Love
Arc ID: 413575
There will be another batch coming your way tonight from me.
Like other I am sure most of this weekend when I can get on it will be teamed.
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
Quote:
At this rate, I'll probably be collecting data for several weeks or even several months. All contributions will be gratefully accepted for the foreseeable future.|
Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
How much longer are you going to be collecting stats? This Double XP weekend has me doing a lot of teaming. If anything I will get back to collecting data on Monday.
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The hardest thing to pin down will be the drop rates for rare boss drops, purples, costume pieces etc. Team play and low level play are fine for this as I can just compare the total number of recipes for each colour. Of course, the low level stuff won't help with the purple rate but it will help with everything else.
I need lots more data to really pin this down. I currently have about 20,000 defeats. 200,000 would be nice.
Keep 'em coming. Thanks.
I've got some results for the basic drop rates. The headline is that salvage rates are as expected but Pool A drop rates are a little low. I've also got some initial values for Pool E (costume pieces) and Pool C/D random rares. (AKA boss rares.)
Whilst the Pool A minion and boss rates are compatible with the wiki values, lieutenants are significantly low. (4.57% instead of 5.33%). Don't forget that there's around a 1 in 20 chance that this result is a quirk of the RNG rather than a real effect.
Code:
This analysis only included logs where the sender said that their recipes and salvage never filled up. Roughly half the defeats were by players with the no-bosses option. I did two runs of Drop Stats. The first analysed the logs that had bosses and the second analysed the rest. I then merged the results by hand to get the table above.Pool Wiki Value Actual Range Drops Defeats ====================================================================== Pool A 2.67% 2.44% 2.24%-2.66% 526 21534 min. equiv. minion 2.67% 2.54% 2.26%-2.84% 296 11669 minions lieutenant 5.33% 4.57% 3.95%-5.25% 188 4118 LTs & snprs boss 8.00% 7.73% 5.56%-10.31% 42 543 bosses & EBs Salvage 8.00% 8.06% 7.67%-8.45% 1518 18842 min. equiv. minion 8.00% 7.94% 7.46%-8.45% 927 11669 minions lieutenant 10.64% 10.83% 9.90%-11.82% 446 4118 LTs & snprs boss 25.00% 26.70% 23.03%-30.64% 145 543 bosses & EBs Pool E ? 0.03% 0.01%-0.09% 4 11669 minions Pool C/D ? 0.55% 0.11%-1.61% 3 543 bosses & EBs
Thanks to @ignitros, AgentMountaineer, Catwhoorg, Enigma Black, Firespray, Geoff_NA and Leandro for the log files.
Quote:
A very interesting table. Hats off to ya, Archie for putting this together and being the repository for all our data. I'll keep my data coming to you as it accumulates. It would be nice to nail these numbers down with a larger sampling.
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Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin
I've got some results for the basic drop rates.
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Great Table Archie.
Having run point on a project with a large scale before (merits for each arc), I truly appreciate the time and effort involved.
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
The drop rates for Pool Cs off of bosses are higher than I expected. Might have to farm with bosses enabled.
I'll make another post out of my raw data, this one in order to show just how streaky the rare drops can be.
Code:
As you can see, I've gotten two purples within 81 kills of each other, but I've not gotten one in the last 4748 kills. It's that streaky. Similarly, I got two Pool A rares within 7 kills of each other, but I've also gone 1672 kills without any.PURPLE RECIPES 1996 defeats -> Fortunata Hypnosis : Sleep Duration (Superior) (Recipe) 636 defeats -> Hecatomb : Rech/Acc (Superior) (Recipe) 1029 defeats -> Coercive Persuasion : Confuse Duration/End Reduction (Superior) (Recipe) 81 defeats -> Hecatomb : Chance for Negative Energy Dam (Recipe) 4748 defeats POOL A RARES 1132 defeats -> Temporary Power: Power Analyzer Mk III 1227 defeats -> Devastation: Acc/Dam/End/Rech (Recipe) 681 defeats -> Undermined Defenses: Recharge (Recipe) 519 defeats -> Ghost Widow's Embrace: End/Hold (Recipe) 1105 defeats -> Stupefy: End/Stun (Recipe) 256 defeats -> Sovereign Right: Accuracy (Recipe) 7 defeats -> Aegis: Resistance (Recipe) 76 defeats -> Temporary Power: Power Analyzer Mk III 271 defeats -> Ghost Widow's Embrace: Acc/Rech (Recipe) 1672 defeats -> Analyze Weakness: Acc/Defense Debuff (Recipe) 229 defeats -> Perfect Zinger: Taunt/Rech (Recipe) 1315 defeats COSTUME RECIPES 3271 defeats -> Costume Piece: Cherubic wings 915 defeats -> Costume Piece: Rocket boots 3702 defeats -> Costume Piece: Draconic wings 602 defeats
Here's the full log sent through DropStats:
Code:
Defeats Minion Lieut. Boss Under. Pet Grey Unknown ---------------------------------------------------------- 8,490 5,106 3,384 0 0 0 0 0 ---------------------------------------------------------- Drops Total Common Uncommon Rare Very Rare ---------------------------------------------------- Pool A 317 242 60 11 4 Pool E 3 Salvage 754 585 143 26 ---------------------------------------------------- Pool DropRate Drops Expected Mobs ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Pool A 2.67% 317 284-353 11,874 minion equivalents Pool E 0.06% 3 ? 5,106 minions Salvage 7.85% 754 718-822 9,607 minion equivalents ----------------------------------------------------------------------- (1 in 20 runs will be outside the expected range.)
www.SaveCOH.com: Calls to Action and Events Calendar
This is what 3700 heroes in a single zone looks like.
Thanks to @EnsonsDeath for the GVE code that made me VIP again!
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Be warned that there may well be a problem with that figure. It's possible that 1 of the 3 didn't actually drop from a mob. It might have been bought with AE tickets or something.|
Originally Posted by BlackBellatrix
The drop rates for Pool Cs off of bosses are higher than I expected. Might have to farm with bosses enabled.
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I could really do with lots more data on bosses. Anyone fancy farming them?
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Over the years, I've come to the conclusion that most of us have very poor intuition when it comes to random events. We seem prey to several recurring problems. |
Originally Posted by Leandro
I'll make another post out of my raw data, this one in order to show just how streaky the rare drops can be.
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The first is that we tend to spot patterns in data that don't really exist. e.g. he's luckier than me or I get better drops from Council.
The other is that we expect random events to be more evenly spread than they are. Consequently, we tend to be surprised by how streaky and how unfair random events can be.
Thanks for publishing that Leandro, it's very interesting.
P.S. I have no idea whether Leandro's streaks are what we'd expect or not.
Here's a list of the drops by rarity from the logs so far.
Code:
Please note that Tier 3 inspirations don't drop from minions and LTs so can't be compared directly to Tier 1 and Tier 2.Drops Total Common Uncommon Rare Very Rare ---------------------------------------------------- Pool A 791 600 152 30 9 Salvage 2,164 1,684 395 85 Inspirations 8,510 5,683 2,745 82 ----------------------------------------------------
I'll convert this into probabilities and confidence intervals when I have time.
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Hmmm...outside of AE, what mission(s) might produce a decent number of bosses? I don't mind doing some boss farming....I could start just going after them in the RWZ. Any other suggestions?
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Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin
I could really do with lots more data on bosses. Anyone fancy farming them?
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Quote:
Although this is a bit of a tangent to the thread, this post is very interesting to me. I'm a Casino dealer. And this "poor intuition when it comes to random events" as you call it is amazingly prevelent in the gaming industry. I've seen some incredible things, both good and bad for players. Over the years I'm not surprised by any kind of streak, whether it be lucky or unlucky.|
Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin
Over the years, I've come to the conclusion that most of us have very poor intuition when it comes to random events. We seem prey to several recurring problems.
The first is that we tend to spot patterns in data that don't really exist. e.g. he's luckier than me or I get better drops from Council. The other is that we expect random events to be more evenly spread than they are. Consequently, we tend to be surprised by how streaky and how unfair random events can be. Thanks for publishing that Leandro, it's very interesting. P.S. I have no idea whether Leandro's streaks are what we'd expect or not. |
Edit:I've long ago given up explaining odds, randomness, and the uselessness of superstition to gamblers....I'm barely human to most of them.
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The introductory mission to the Midnighter's Club for Villains. The first mission has a Death Mage (or whever is appropriate for your level) in every spawn.
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Originally Posted by AgentMountaineer
Hmmm...outside of AE, what mission(s) might produce a decent number of bosses? I don't mind doing some boss farming....I could start just going after them in the RWZ. Any other suggestions?
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Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
That's Midnight's Hand in flashback, and available only to 50s
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
And now, here's the data for a boss only run. I took my Scrapper to Portal Corp. and started targeting every boss in sight. 118 Death Mages, 37 Warhulks, 19 Fake Nemesis, 8 Zeus Class Titans, 4 Master Illusionists, 4 Dark Ring Mistresses, 3 Gunslingers, 2 Chief Soldiers, 2 Tac Ops Commanders, 1 Chief Mesmerist, 1 Dark Dwarf and 1 Void Slayer later, I had the following results.
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DropStats is reporting the drop rates wrong, if it really were 2.83% I would have gotten 200*0.0283=5.66 recipes, when I actually got 17, making the drop rate 8.5%; or 9% if we count the Pool C/D drop as a Pool A rare, which may be the actual method of rewarding it. Has anyone confirmed that C/D is a separate pool? This would make it possible to get a Pool A and a Pool C/D on the same enemy defeat.----------------------------------------------------------
Archie Gremlin's Drop Stats v0.5.0
http://www.glasspaw.com/dropstats/
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Analysing boss log.txt
Defeats Minion Lieut. Boss Under. Pet Grey Unknown
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200 0 0 200 0 0 0 0
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Drops Total Common Uncommon Rare Very Rare
----------------------------------------------------
Pool A 17 16 1 0 0
Pool C/D 1
Salvage 41 31 10 0
Inspirations 168 92 46 30
----------------------------------------------------
Other Drops
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Inf. Rewards 200 (3,873,562 inf, 0 xp, 244,061 debt)
Prestige 60,906
Enhancements 10 single origin enhancements
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pool DropRate Drops Expected Mobs
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pool A 2.83% 17 9-25 600 minion equivalents
Pool C/D 0.50% 1 ? 200 bosses and EBs
Salvage 6.56% 41 37-65 625 minion equivalents
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
(1 in 20 runs will be outside the expected range.)
Similarly, the actual salvage drop rate was 20.5%; and SOs dropped 5% of the time. This isn't actually a bug, it's DropStats converting everything to minion equivalents, which is no good for reporting a boss-only run. It really needs to separate the rates in minions, lieutenants and bosses.
www.SaveCOH.com: Calls to Action and Events Calendar
This is what 3700 heroes in a single zone looks like.
Thanks to @EnsonsDeath for the GVE code that made me VIP again!
It's not reporting them wrong. Since bosses and LTs have higher drop rates than minions, the program turns them into "minion equivalents". So it's dividing 17 drops by 600 "minion equivalents" to get that 2.83% number.
As far as bosses go, I'll start including bosses in my BM farm runs, it won't slow me down too much I don't think.
Quote:
Which is just what it says at the bottom of my post: "This isn't actually a bug, it's DropStats converting everything to minion equivalents, which is no good for reporting a boss-only run. It really needs to separate the rates in minions, lieutenants and bosses."|
Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin
P.S. Firespray is quite correct about "minion equivalents".
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It's still reporting them wrong for the purposes of my post (boss-only rates). I probably should have been more clear on that.
www.SaveCOH.com: Calls to Action and Events Calendar
This is what 3700 heroes in a single zone looks like.
Thanks to @EnsonsDeath for the GVE code that made me VIP again!
Quote:
You'll like the new version then. It does just what you want.
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Originally Posted by Leandro
It's still reporting them wrong for the purposes of my post (boss-only rates). I probably should have been more clear on that.
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Thanks to everyone who's sent me log files. We have 12,000 defeats so far which is a good start.
Keep 'em coming.