Analysis of Basic IO Costs [long]
By
Aggelakis,
Posted on: 2007-04-20 09:58 in The Market and Inventions
tl;dr
Paragon Wiki: http://www.paragonwiki.com
City Info Terminal: http://cit.cohtitan.com
Mids Hero Designer: http://www.cohplanner.com
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Dispari
I don't know why Dink thinks she's not as sexy as Jay was. In 5 posts she's already upstaged his entire career.
|
[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that Inventions may NOT accomplish that as fast as it can be re-injected by the high-levels who farm for 100k Inf an hour.
[/ QUOTE ]
100k/hr?
What is that, like a couple minutes work and then kipping off for a 55 minute smoke break?
A dedicated high level farm for influence rakes in millions.
@Mindshadow
[ QUOTE ]
To the OP: My apologies if I upset you but I'm used to working with people much less insightful than you are and as a result I like to see my information laid out in captain-dummy talk. I reread your posts and the information was indeed there...I was just accustomed to having the pertinent stuff closer to the surface.
[/ QUOTE ]
That's a perfectly valid criticism of my post. But I think the main reason I was irritated by your responses is that I feel like I am being threadjacked. General discussions about whether the Inventions system is too confusing or whether it's worth your while to test it out belong somewhere else.
As for the "captain dummy" talk, I am considering starting a new thread where I simply lay out the upgrade decisions as I outlined in my last post, and point interested readers here for a discussion of why.
- Protea
And for a while things were cold,
They were scared down in their holes
The forest that once was green
Was colored black by those killing machines
[ QUOTE ]
Ok...let's try this from the other side of the coin for a change. Stop making this all about me and make it about someone else...how about you?
[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, let's.
[ QUOTE ]
Have you been to the Test server since I9 went to open test? Have you bought or sold ANYTHING at the AH or the BM? If so, what was it and how much did you get/spend?
[/ QUOTE ]
I've been on test longer than that - I've been in since the 2nd wave of the closed beta. Yes, I've bought and sold at the CH. The last question is irrelevant.
[ QUOTE ]
As to the explanation of why the system will blow up? I think I covered that rather well.
[/ QUOTE ]
That's just the problem - you haven't. You start with an assumption (the Devs don't want piles of Inf) and ladle theory on top of conjecture over a base of suppositions.
The end result is a wonderfully spiced dish of handwaving - but no facts, and no explanation. (Mostly because, as I now realize, there isn't actually anything for you to explain.)
http://derekl1963.livejournal.com/
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To the OP: My apologies if I upset you but I'm used to working with people much less insightful than you are and as a result I like to see my information laid out in captain-dummy talk. I reread your posts and the information was indeed there...I was just accustomed to having the pertinent stuff closer to the surface.
[/ QUOTE ]
That's a perfectly valid criticism of my post. But I think the main reason I was irritated by your responses is that I feel like I am being threadjacked. General discussions about whether the Inventions system is too confusing or whether it's worth your while to test it out belong somewhere else.
As for the "captain dummy" talk, I am considering starting a new thread where I simply lay out the upgrade decisions as I outlined in my last post, and point interested readers here for a discussion of why.
- Protea
[/ QUOTE ]
You are absolutely right and I apologise. Your thread is not the place for my discussion as it is only connected by the fact that they both Involve Inventions...pretty thin I will openly admit.
Sorry for the threadjack. I fear your original post has been irrepairably damaged by my rant. I look forward to a new thread and promise to keep things on-topic.
"Comics, you're not a Mastermind...you're an Overlord!"
[ QUOTE ]
You are absolutely right and I apologise.
[/ QUOTE ]
Apology accepted 
I know I've done my share of taking things onto tangents before.
- Protea
And for a while things were cold,
They were scared down in their holes
The forest that once was green
Was colored black by those killing machines
[ QUOTE ]
Given that others (maybe not you...) have already admitted that they're spending more on Test than they would on Live do you think that the prices that you bought and/or sold at were an accurate reflection of the Live game prices?
If so...why considering that anything spent on test is not really gone?
If not...then why are you bothering with it in the first place?
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm amazed. Never once did it occur to me to go to Test to find out what prices will be like on Live, but it seems that for you that is the only reason anybody would go to Test.
This is why I have been playing exclusively on test since the beta opened up to everybody: 1) I wanted to learn about the Inventions system; 2) I want to check out the STF; 3) I want to examine how I can push my builds beyond their i8 limits; 4) I am enjoying learning this new game system, and don't anticipate returning to the Live servers until I am preceded by Issue 9.
I am also learning a vast amount from dedicated people like Protea who spend a lot of time examining, testing and evaluating the many mechanisms involved in the Inventions system. I feel like when i9 goes live, I will be able to hit the ground running, with builds already planned out, specific IOs in mind, an a plan of what salvage I need to hold on to and what I can afford to sell. When I got to Test I was flailing around in the consignment house and slotting whatever enhancements I found. Now I have builds planned for five of my characters and I'm developing more as I go along, and I can make much more educated purchasing decisions.
Scrap
well as a 32 month veteran,I plan on ignoring IO for at least 6 months ,if not forever,I like and enjoy just using the standard TO,DO,SO enhaments,and as long as the DEVs don't do anything to mess that up(limit drops,increase prices, shut down the SO stores) i will use the take it or leave it appoach and leave it
Fluffy Bunny 1 Person SG
Rabid Bunny 1 Person VG
Both on Pinnacle
Hobbit's Hole 1 Person SG
Spider's Web 1 Person VG
Both on Freedom
[ QUOTE ]
Here is what I plan to do for my own characters, who are going to be funded by my own 50s via my SG (yes, I twink):
pre-level 12: Use drops only
Level 12: Outfit using lvl 15 IOs
Level 17: Nothing
Level 22: Outfit using level 25 SOs
Level 27: Outfit using level 30 IOs
Level 32: Nothing
Level 37: Nothing
Level 42: Upgrade selective 1 or 2-slotted aspects to lvl 45 IOs
Level 47: Upgrade selective 1 or 2-slotted aspects to lvl 50 IOs
This is only 3 rounds of "required" enhancement purchases for the entire career of my character, compared with 8 currently. The last two rounds will not be full upgrades and may depend on whether I can respec to change slotting around.
- Protea
[/ QUOTE ]
Here is my plan. Each new toon gets 5 million inf to start them out.
pre-level 12:
Buy TOs. They are very cheep and 4 or 5 accs in a power mean I hit ok.
Level 12:
If I can find cheap lv 15 IOs on the market, outfit with them, otherwise buy DOs as usual.
Level 17: Nothing
Level 22:
Outfit using level 25 IOs bought cheap at the market, or made from the salvage I have been collecting since lv 4.
Level 27: Nothing
Level 32: Nothing
Level 37: Nothing
Level 42: Nothing
Level 47: Upgrade to level 50 IOs as I can get the salvage.
Having seen your chart now, on the toons that are lv 22 or more, I may go with the lv 25 SOs and have them build and store the lv 30 IOs since they will be getting the salvage they need to make them. It all comes down to how noticable the 1.3% loss per enhancment is in actual play.
Global is @honcho
On Champion
Living Coal LV 50 Fire/Fire Tank
Nature Boy LV 41 Earth/Kin Cont
Great Wacko LV 34 Robot/FF MM
plus many alts
Very interesting analysis, Protea. I think I generally agree with it, so hopefully the devs will eventually pay attention.
-D
Darkonne: Pinnacle's (unofficially) mighty Dark Miasma/Radiation Blast enthusiast!
Be sure to check out this mighty Arc:
#161865 - Aeon's Nemesis
[ QUOTE ]
Here is my plan. Each new toon gets 5 million inf to start them out.
...
Level 12:
If I can find cheap lv 15 IOs on the market, outfit with them, otherwise buy DOs as usual.
Level 17: Nothing
[/ QUOTE ]
Any slots that don't have lvl 15 IOs in them are going to go red at level 19 according to this plan.
I've actually been toying with an alternate plan, which is to buy all IOs at levels 12 and 27 and nothing in between. You sacrifice some performance between 22 and 27, but +3 DOs are actually not that bad, all things considered, and the character would likely be very playable. That saves you something like 1M inf compared to the other plan I outlined.
- Protea
And for a while things were cold,
They were scared down in their holes
The forest that once was green
Was colored black by those killing machines
I personally thank you for your original post series. I found it entirely readable, entirely clear, and very informative. It was also another indictment of Cryptic's lack of understanding of the mathematics of game design (which first showed in the amazingly bad decision to make accuracy mechanics additive instead of multiplicative).
I really hope the devs take a good solid look at your data and conclusions, and adjust things.
[ QUOTE ]
A) The Devs feel that there is too much Inf in the system. Even if they never admit it in so many words the numerous ways that we have to remove Inf from the game is evidence enough IMHO. Why else would it cost 250K to alter your costume? Why else would they restrict Inf trades to 100K until I9 and not allow simple ways to transfer Inf from one player-character to one of his alts without a third party? At the lowest levels of the Invention system the largest expense in the Crafting cost. Why? Because it can't be recovered in any way. Enhancements, salvage, even whole IO sets can be bought, sold and traded but the Crafting cost comes out of the system and is gone forever.
B) Not everyone is going to like or want to participate in Inventions. It has been touted as being totally optional from the start and I think that that is a major selling point. You don't HAVE to craft one thing to play...but you'll still get the salvage and the recipes through standard drops. If you don't want them what do you do? Benevolent (or wealthy) characters may simply give the stuff away or sell it so cheaply that they might as well be doing so. Others who want the Crafting badges and such might turn into misers and horde everything and that's fine for them. But the fact is that a new way to make money is being added to a game where the Devs obviously feel that there is too much already. I don't see this as being bad but I have a hunch that the Devs might.
[/ QUOTE ]
Well actually although someone made inf it was at the expense of someone else, so the amount of inf in the economy stays the same, except that the CH takes it's cut of everything so actually on every CH transaction inf is being siphoned away from the economy. Unless I'm missing something that's the purpose of the CH. That and to allow trades to happen which is the real purpose in my opinion. Now if those items are sold to vendors instead, then inf is being introduced to the system but I don't think anyone is gonna get rich off of doing that, at least not for a good long time.
Now to answer your question as to why the developers don't like all this inf laying around, the answer is pretty simple and that's because it drives the prices up on the CH which means that those who have been playing a long time with nothing to do with their inf can afford to spend wildly, whereas the newcomer doesn't have the jack to do anything. So the idea is to remove some of the excess inf so that it's a more appealing game to the new comers. It's going to take time mind you, but it should eventually do the trick.
If you would play a few other MMO's you would find that developers are always very concerned with the economy in the game, desperately trying to balance things so that all the good stuff is not too difficult to come by but at the same time not easy to get and allows for new comers to actually get a few "nice" things for themselves without blowing the economy. It's all about the economy.
That's just my opinion. I could be wrong. 
Protea:
Does your suggested IO price account for a "present value" discount for not having to upgrade the enhancement later, as with a SO?
At level 25, if I buy and keep a generic 25 IO, I will never have to upgrade it (at progressively higher amounts) at 29, 34, 39, 44, and 49 as I would with a 25 SO. Discounted for present value (because i'm not realizing all of those cost savings immediately) and for the possibility that I may replace the generic IO later (for a set, perhaps), I guesstimate that a generic IO is worth twice a same-level SO, as a general rule of thumb.
Obviously, at higher levels, the "savings" realized from not having to upgrade is much less, because there are fewer future upgrades to be done, but this may be offset by the increased IO performance at higher levels.
[ QUOTE ]
Does your suggested IO price account for a "present value" discount for not having to upgrade the enhancement later, as with a SO?
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that is pretty much the whole point of the post, to do that math :P
- Protea
And for a while things were cold,
They were scared down in their holes
The forest that once was green
Was colored black by those killing machines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does your suggested IO price account for a "present value" discount for not having to upgrade the enhancement later, as with a SO?
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that is pretty much the whole point of the post, to do that math :P
- Protea
[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for marginalizing my reply. Seriously, I was attempting to add something to the conversation.
According to your table, you suggest a price of 120k influence for a level 30 IO, apparently halving the projected future cost that an SO-user would have spent to keep up with performance, yes? That's one valid way of looking at it, but it seems high to me (about triple the cost of a level 30 SO), because the IO-user is paying that cost entirely up front.
Did you account for the possibility that someone would replace that generic IO with a set IO, HO, or higher-level IO? That possibility should be applied as a further discount to the present value. At level 30, a player has no way of knowing if or when he will replace that slotted generic IO.
That's why I think twice the price of a same-level SO is a fair rule of thumb for IO pricing, but I'd like you to explain the discounting theory underlying your pricing.
First off very nice analysis. The biggest advantage I see at lvl 25 to aquiring IOs to SOs is that while they may be a wee bit less powerful, they don't expire. So at that point if you invest in IOs instead of SOs when you are short of cash around lvl 27 you will be able to keep sailing and doing all right. Does that sound inline with your analysis?
[ QUOTE ]
When I9 goes live the Inf trade window will support values in the billions. Why did the Devs expand this window unless they felt that it would be needed for some reason? Either they feel that some characters are going to have billions of Inf (which they don't seem to want) or they believe that something somewhere in the game will cost a billion or more Inf. Now assuming that my Brute has 10 million Inf by the time he hits 50 (just grabbing a round number here...) why on earth would he NEED the ability to carry or trade a billion Inf?
[/ QUOTE ]
Wait, didn't you claim in an earlier post in this forum to have worked in Quality Assurance? <looks back... yep>
But you actually ask the above question, not once but at least three times I've seen, as if it actually MEANS SOMETHING... Oh AND you also have no interest in spending any time on the test server?
what the hell kind of QA person are you?
I work in Software QA, and have for over 10 years, and the answer to the first question is fricking obvious to a first year software tester.. BECAUSE THEY ONLY WANT TO PAY THE COST TO MAKE THE CHANGE ONE TIME.. it's not because they through anyone will need to trade a billion inf, now or even in the near future.. But obviously the current design was in need of change, and they only wanted to pay the cost of making and testing that change once.. So when they made the change they didn't up it a mere digit or two.. They upped it well beyond any forseeable future limit so they didn't get stuck making the classic "640K of memory will be enough for anyone" error and have to go back and ever touch this bit of code again. To read anything more into this is donning a tin-foil hat and looking for black helecopters in the shadows..
And a QA person that doesn't want to get on the test server even for a little bit???? I SERIOUSLY doubt you have a natural aptitude for QA unless your work just totally burns you out..
[ QUOTE ]
I love your assumptions 1 through 3... And you how you create from whole cloth not only an excuse for why you can't be bothered to test on Test, but provide yourself with an ongoing series of excuses whereby you can explain away why you cannot test inventions for yourself.
[ QUOTE ]
I am NOT here to cry doom all over the place based on wild conjecture and assumption.
[/ QUOTE ]
The funny part is how you claim this - yet proceed to do so anyhow.
You still haven't bothered to learn the basics of the invention system. You still cannot explain how the invention system will 'blow up'. You still mistake quantity for quality.
[/ QUOTE ]
Ok...let's try this from the other side of the coin for a change. Stop making this all about me and make it about someone else...how about you?
Have you been to the Test server since I9 went to open test?
Have you bought or sold ANYTHING at the AH or the BM?
If so, what was it and how much did you get/spend?
Did you do this with real funds that you would have to play in real time on a real server to replace or did you use copied funds that will still be there after they're all spent?
Given that others (maybe not you...) have already admitted that they're spending more on Test than they would on Live do you think that the prices that you bought and/or sold at were an accurate reflection of the Live game prices?
If so...why considering that anything spent on test is not really gone?
If not...then why are you bothering with it in the first place?
How LONG did you play on the Test server? Four hours? Eight hours? Did you use one character or several? How much Inf did you have going in and how much did you have coming out (scratch that last one...answer is the same amount!)?
The ONLY thing I can see testing for right now is whether or not the basics of the system (buying, selling, trading, bidding etc) work and the drop rate. I see no reason why I should waste my time debugging something when others are obviously better qualified to do so and checking the drop rate is STILL only a tiny sampling of the entire system.
In order for me to get a good sampling of how well the system works for me I would have to play the same way that I do on Live. Frankly I don't think it will take another 2 months for I9 to go live and that's how long it would take for me to play each of my characters a full day's worth. Then, after all of this, there is STILL the issue of the admittedly inflated prices!
So I should go to Test, play my Brute for a day, sell the unwanted stuff at whatever the market will bear which, at the moment will be grossly inaccurate and misleading, buy the few things that I might want at prices that may ALSO be grossly inaccurate and misleading and then go back to Live? Please explain to me in the name of all that's sensible and holy how this is supposed to show me ANYTHING except how often stuff drops (in the 33-35 range only thank you) and that people will pay stupid amounts of Inf for something when they know it's not really gone?
As to the explanation of why the system will blow up? I think I covered that rather well. I'll reiterate for those skipping from the beginning of our little debate to here:
The Devs don't like surplus Inf in the system.
Not everyone will want to participate in Inventions.
Those that don't will still wind up getting the various drops.
Some of these drops will be rare recipes and/or salvage that others will covet. This coveting is the whole principle behind the idea of 'rare.'
Some players will sell the unwanted loot to those covetous players willing and able to shell out the Inf. I have no idea how much this will be (and even if you've been on Test neither do you by the way...) but even if it's only 10K that's 10K of Inf that that character did not have before. Read that as '10K of Inf that the Devs might not WANT you to have.'
IF the systems performs as I expect even a little the end result will be that those characters with tens of millions of Inf MAY only wind up with five million Inf. Meanwhile those at the low to mid range of the spectrum MAY wind up with tremendous amounts of Inf. Even if this happens and the Devs move to correct it they cannot do so immediately because the prices will be unstable when the whole thing starts out and might settle down to their own reasonable levels. However if it doesn't then the Devs will be forced to tweak it somehow which MAY upset more than a few players who will have spent how many weeks or months working with the system and getting used to it. And even IF the system gets tweaked into a proper framework the furious first weeks or months will STILL generate extra Inf (again, nobody knows how much...) which the Devs STILL don't want characters to have.
The Devs have been surprised before. The reaction/use (lack of use) of Bases surprised them. The way SGs were used to generate Pres (far less than they anticipated) surprised them. The lack of converting Inf to Pres probably surprised them. I'd lay good money that the number of players hero-side using the Sewers to avoid the first 5-6 levels of content continues to surprise them. The fact that a single character could or would amass ten or hundreds of millions of Inf seems to have surprised them. The rediculous AV regen rate surprised them. Players being able to take down Hamidon often enough to refer it as farming surprised them. I'd be willing to bet that the reaction to Dr Brainstorm's ill-fated I9 press release REALLY surprised them!
None of this is conjecture or supposition. Much of it has been said in interviews and the rest is as obvious as the sun on a hot day. None of this is crying doom.
Now given the previous track record for being surprised, coupled with the sheer level of complication involved with Inventions (not the crafting process, I mean the economic side of things), can you honestly say with any certainty that this little financial experiment WON'T blow up?
As I see it the problem is predicated on perception: The devs see gross amounts of Inf as being a bad thing. I can't peer into their minds to see why but they do and that's that.
If the fact that much of the wealth in the system was at the top end (lvl 40 and above) is what bothered them then I could see Inventions as being the beacon of hope for them. Those that already HAVE piles of Inf might be inclined to spend it to buy Invention-related stuff that they either can't get (they out-leveled that content), don't want to grind for ('I need HOW MANY of those to make my sexy new stilletto rocket boots? Forget it I'll buy them...') or just plain like spreading the wealth around ('Gee, did a costume contest every day this week. How else can I give away Inf? Oh yeah...I'll pay too much to my friend's character for that last Cape piece I need.').
However this isn't the case IMHO. The Devs don't want to redistribute the weath from the top-down or else they'd make everything under lvl 15 or so dirt cheap and everything above 40 or so exorbidantly expensive. What they want to do is pull Inf OUT of the system. The problem is that Inventions may NOT accomplish that as fast as it can be re-injected by the high-levels who farm for 100k Inf an hour. And even IF the Inf drains like water from the system so that 6 months from now the prices are where the devs pictured them what happens after all of those 40+ leveled character get everything they want? Well history tells us that they may go back to doing what they did before...earning Inf that they will either horde or inject into the system through an alt somewhere.
I'm not saying that Inventions is bad. I'm not saying that having too much Inf is bad. I'm not saying that the Devs trying to remove Inf from the system is bad.
I'm saying that the way that they hope to do it...through the Inventions system...IS bad. I'm saying that I predict that Inventions will not WAD and then the Devs will try to fix it so that it does and that, in the treatment of the patient, they may kill him instead.
IMHO the fluid dynamics of a free market economy coupled with 150,000+ highly creative players is too volatile a situation to be controlled and should never even be attempted.
I pray to lots of comic book deities that I'm wrong...
Sorry it took me so long to get there folks...I'm a Gemini...
"Comics, you're not a Mastermind...you're an Overlord!"