Blood Widows suck
By
Arcanaville,
Posted on: 2006-02-02 18:55 in Archetypes and Powers General Discussion
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Night Widows are probably my favorite creations, with the possible exception of Jack in Irons. geko designed them, and I built their powers. (Jack was a big team effort, I just love the way he looks.)
The majority of their defense come from their Precognitive abilities. The Stealth doesn't add anymore than three slotted Stealth would for a player. The Smoke Grenade, on the other hand, is brutal if you are lower level than they are.
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If they get the broken smoke gernade, I want it back too!!!
I call foul!!!
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Those weren't facts. Those were statistics based on assumptions on top of a nastygram about how my sample size was too small to conclude that my accuracy was floored.
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In order to test a question about probability (accuracy in this case), sample size needs to be large enough to overcome the probable error of estimate...as sample size increases, error of estimate narrows.
The math is arcane for non statisticians, but you can plug in a couple of values (StDev, your desired confidence for maximum error of estimate) and get the minimum N number of trials required to make a statistically good test. Your sample size simply wasn't large enough to make any factual statements (you may be right, you may be wrong, but you cannot be *certain* with a sample that small).
You can have capped accuracy (95%) and still miss 5 of 6 attacks, with perfectly fair dice...the entire point of the original response. It will "feel" exactly the same as floored accuracy (5%), if you put trust in your intuition and not accurate data.
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Sample size is too small to draw such a conclusion. Short run statistics lie, once again:
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Sorry, I'm going to stick with my intuition here.
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Yeah, wouldn't want the FACTS to cloud your judgement...LOL
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Those weren't facts. Those were statistics based on assumptions on top of a nastygram about how my sample size was too small to conclude that my accuracy was floored.
I've seen floored and capped accuracy in action. I know what it looks like. That fight looked like floored accuracy. Who cares about some lies and damned lies when we're not talking about statistics but a real event? No one cares unless we're actually trying to establish exact numbers, k?
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I just reacted to your comment, didn't really pay attention to the previous post. I just found the statement funny out-of-context...
But, I have to agree with the concept that a single event does not a statistical run make. Single runs can be remarkably un-characteristic of the norm - just ask the people who go to Las Vegas all the time...hehe
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*cough*
Well, considering there is a decimal error in their AoE Defense (250% instead of 25%), I'm not surprised the Rain of Arrows missed a ton. 
I'll fix it today.
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Heheheh. Ah, reminds me of the old, "Whoops, Personal Force Field defense is 9.5% instead of 95%" error back in Beta.
Durn decimal points. Got a mind of their own, they do.
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Sorry, I was a bit on the defensive after Arcana's posts - which were intended to be helpful, but the second covered something I'd already addressed.
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All I said was that it was theoretically possible for the streakbreaker to admit 6 misses in a row in that scenario. What matters in that situation isn't whether you hit build up before attacking the boss - I got that part - but rather whether the last swing before attacking the boss was a miss, and against anything that might have had any defense at all, which is possible in a mission like you're describing.
The streakbreaker will allow 6 misses in a row (breaking the streak at 6 by forcing #7 to be a hit) if the previous swing was against something with about 25% defense. Base tohit was running 55%, and the streakbreaker limit for net 30% to 40% tohit is 6, so if the last thing you attacked was something with at least 25% defense (or you were somehow debuffed), and that swing was a miss, then your streakbreaker limit going into the boss - even if your accuracy was fully at the ceiling - would have still been 6 until you recorded your first hit, based on my understanding of the streakbreaker (55% - 25% = 30%. 30% * 1.33 for accuracy slotting is 40%).
Something not well understood is that the streakbreaker doesn't "reset" when you switch targets, it only resets when you hit something, or if you miss on a target with even worse tohit. In other words, the streakbreaker will ratchet downward, if you attack harder to hit targets, but it won't go upward until its reset by a hit.
If you had said "the last swing I made before attacking the boss was a hit" or "at no time in the recent past prior to attacking the boss did my tohit ever fall below 40%, definitely" then the streakbreaker would have been forced to break that streak, but I didn't know if either of those two conditions were true.
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You can have capped accuracy (95%) and still miss 5 of 6 attacks, with perfectly fair dice...the entire point of the original response. It will "feel" exactly the same as floored accuracy (5%), if you put trust in your intuition and not accurate data.
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However, you cannot have capped accuracy and still miss 6 of 7 attacks in City of Heroes, thanks to the streakbreaker.
In the future, just pretend you popped out your patronizing lecture on probabilities, k?
Elsegame: Champions Online: @BellaStrega ||| Battle.net: Ashleigh#1834 ||| Bioware Social Network: BellaStrega ||| EA Origin: Bella_Strega ||| Steam: BellaStrega ||| The first Guild Wars: Kali Magdalene ||| The Secret World: BelleStarr (Arcadia)
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Sorry, I was a bit on the defensive after Arcana's posts - which were intended to be helpful, but the second covered something I'd already addressed.
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All I said was that it was theoretically possible for the streakbreaker to admit 6 misses in a row in that scenario. What matters in that situation isn't whether you hit build up before attacking the boss - I got that part - but rather whether the last swing before attacking the boss was a miss, and against anything that might have had any defense at all, which is possible in a mission like you're describing.
The streakbreaker will allow 6 misses in a row (breaking the streak at 6 by forcing #7 to be a hit) if the previous swing was against something with about 25% defense. Base tohit was running 55%, and the streakbreaker limit for net 30% to 40% tohit is 6, so if the last thing you attacked was something with at least 25% defense (or you were somehow debuffed), and that swing was a miss, then your streakbreaker limit going into the boss - even if your accuracy was fully at the ceiling - would have still been 6 until you recorded your first hit, based on my understanding of the streakbreaker (55% - 25% = 30%. 30% * 1.33 for accuracy slotting is 40%).
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And consider the mathematical odds of that happening?
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If you had said "the last swing I made before attacking the boss was a hit" or "at no time in the recent past prior to attacking the boss did my tohit ever fall below 40%, definitely" then the streakbreaker would have been forced to break that streak, but I didn't know if either of those two conditions were true.
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I don't know why I should have to clarify that my ~73-75% accuracy against everything else in the mission was not below 40%. I mean, fighting Arachnos minions and lts who are mainly hitting me with attacks that don't seem to have to-hit debuffs in them and I'm hitting them with my attacks because I slotted for accuracy.
I feel like I'm going over the same ground again and again. That's because I am. I am also more than a bit tired of it.
Also, Castle confirmed that the smoke debuff is pretty harsh and that they also have good defense on their own (admittedly, not the 250% AoE defense).
Elsegame: Champions Online: @BellaStrega ||| Battle.net: Ashleigh#1834 ||| Bioware Social Network: BellaStrega ||| EA Origin: Bella_Strega ||| Steam: BellaStrega ||| The first Guild Wars: Kali Magdalene ||| The Secret World: BelleStarr (Arcadia)
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Sorry, I was a bit on the defensive after Arcana's posts - which were intended to be helpful, but the second covered something I'd already addressed.
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All I said was that it was theoretically possible for the streakbreaker to admit 6 misses in a row in that scenario. What matters in that situation isn't whether you hit build up before attacking the boss - I got that part - but rather whether the last swing before attacking the boss was a miss, and against anything that might have had any defense at all, which is possible in a mission like you're describing.
The streakbreaker will allow 6 misses in a row (breaking the streak at 6 by forcing #7 to be a hit) if the previous swing was against something with about 25% defense. Base tohit was running 55%, and the streakbreaker limit for net 30% to 40% tohit is 6, so if the last thing you attacked was something with at least 25% defense (or you were somehow debuffed), and that swing was a miss, then your streakbreaker limit going into the boss - even if your accuracy was fully at the ceiling - would have still been 6 until you recorded your first hit, based on my understanding of the streakbreaker (55% - 25% = 30%. 30% * 1.33 for accuracy slotting is 40%).
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And consider the mathematical odds of that happening?
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I did, and stated what they were, which is very very low.
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If you had said "the last swing I made before attacking the boss was a hit" or "at no time in the recent past prior to attacking the boss did my tohit ever fall below 40%, definitely" then the streakbreaker would have been forced to break that streak, but I didn't know if either of those two conditions were true.
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I don't know why I should have to clarify that my ~73-75% accuracy against everything else in the mission was not below 40%. I mean, fighting Arachnos minions and lts who are mainly hitting me with attacks that don't seem to have to-hit debuffs in them and I'm hitting them with my attacks because I slotted for accuracy.
I feel like I'm going over the same ground again and again. That's because I am. I am also more than a bit tired of it.
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I'm sorry you feel frustrated by the questions. It wasn't intended to doubt your observations, but to look for an explanation for them. Since you didn't describe the situation in total, there were a lot of details that would be potentially significant to me in looking at an accuracy problem. For example, you don't specify if the boss was the first thing in the spawn you attacked; its possible looking from my end that the boss might have been the last thing attacked, and you were already debuffed by smoke; that might have been enough to lower your to hit against other targets low enough to cause the streakbreaker to be "off" when you switched to the boss. Or its possible that you attacked an LT with sufficient defense to drive accuracy-slotted attacks to 40% without needing debuffing prior to attacking the boss: arachnos LTs sometimes seem to have significant defense from what I've noticed. Without being there, there's no way to be sure without clarification, and I double-checked very carefully to see if at any time you made a definitive statement about any of these conditions before mentioning them.
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In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
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I'm sorry you feel frustrated by the questions. It wasn't intended to doubt your observations, but to look for an explanation for them. Since you didn't describe the situation in total, there were a lot of details that would be potentially significant to me in looking at an accuracy problem. For example, you don't specify if the boss was the first thing in the spawn you attacked; its possible looking from my end that the boss might have been the last thing attacked, and you were already debuffed by smoke; that might have been enough to lower your to hit against other targets low enough to cause the streakbreaker to be "off" when you switched to the boss. Or its possible that you attacked an LT with sufficient defense to drive accuracy-slotted attacks to 40% without needing debuffing prior to attacking the boss: arachnos LTs sometimes seem to have significant defense from what I've noticed. Without being there, there's no way to be sure without clarification, and I double-checked very carefully to see if at any time you made a definitive statement about any of these conditions before mentioning them.
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Well, until that specific fight, I wasn't having any trouble hitting stuff. I mean, I wasn't hitting them every time, but I was hitting more than half the time, which isn't bad. In this particular fight, I tabbed through the targets until I got to the boss, lost the boss, got the boss, lost the boss, hit an insight. As I recall, the first target I hit in the spawn was the boss - I know this because a) build up was up, and b) I was at full health.
A lot of my frustration comes from the guy who felt the need to lecture on the obvious. I do feel that my accuracy was floored or close to it, rather than simply reduced to 30-40% (as the streak could imply), but that's also due to the fact that my teammates were having similar issues.
Elsegame: Champions Online: @BellaStrega ||| Battle.net: Ashleigh#1834 ||| Bioware Social Network: BellaStrega ||| EA Origin: Bella_Strega ||| Steam: BellaStrega ||| The first Guild Wars: Kali Magdalene ||| The Secret World: BelleStarr (Arcadia)
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I'm sorry you feel frustrated by the questions. It wasn't intended to doubt your observations, but to look for an explanation for them. Since you didn't describe the situation in total, there were a lot of details that would be potentially significant to me in looking at an accuracy problem. For example, you don't specify if the boss was the first thing in the spawn you attacked; its possible looking from my end that the boss might have been the last thing attacked, and you were already debuffed by smoke; that might have been enough to lower your to hit against other targets low enough to cause the streakbreaker to be "off" when you switched to the boss. Or its possible that you attacked an LT with sufficient defense to drive accuracy-slotted attacks to 40% without needing debuffing prior to attacking the boss: arachnos LTs sometimes seem to have significant defense from what I've noticed. Without being there, there's no way to be sure without clarification, and I double-checked very carefully to see if at any time you made a definitive statement about any of these conditions before mentioning them.
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Well, until that specific fight, I wasn't having any trouble hitting stuff. I mean, I wasn't hitting them every time, but I was hitting more than half the time, which isn't bad. In this particular fight, I tabbed through the targets until I got to the boss, lost the boss, got the boss, lost the boss, hit an insight. As I recall, the first target I hit in the spawn was the boss - I know this because a) build up was up, and b) I was at full health.
A lot of my frustration comes from the guy who felt the need to lecture on the obvious. I do feel that my accuracy was floored or close to it, rather than simply reduced to 30-40% (as the streak could imply), but that's also due to the fact that my teammates were having similar issues.
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Just stop, you lost this thread, I told you they have evasion, and you questioned it, and the red name slapped you up side the head with the numbers
GG
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Just stop, you lost this thread, I told you they have evasion, and you questioned it, and the red name slapped you up side the head with the numbers
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The AoE defense they have is a tangent to my own post, which was about a chain of single-target attacks.
Please explain in as much detail as possible how 250% AoE defense has any effect on:
Ice Bolt, Ice Blast, Freeze Ray, Power Thrust, Energy Punch, and Bonesmasher?
That is to say, get with the program: We're not talking about the AoE defense.
Edit: Removed Bitter Ice Blast, as I hadn't picked it up yet.
Also edit: I did not question whether they had evasion. I questioned whether the AoE defense that people were coming up with for Night Widows was reasonable. From Castle's post, I overestimated, but not by very much.
Elsegame: Champions Online: @BellaStrega ||| Battle.net: Ashleigh#1834 ||| Bioware Social Network: BellaStrega ||| EA Origin: Bella_Strega ||| Steam: BellaStrega ||| The first Guild Wars: Kali Magdalene ||| The Secret World: BelleStarr (Arcadia)
Thanx for pointing this out Kali & thanx _Castle_ , hopefully this will get fixed "soon"(TM).
"I'm not scared of anyone or anything Angie. Isn't that the way life should be?"
Jack Hawksmoor, The Authority.