Pebblebrook
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Posts
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Joined
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Quote:Heh wow, not sure if i should be concerned or flattered you want to know more about me. Not that i need to justify my forum behavior but i usually don't add to the discussion if what i want to say has already been adequately conveyed...that's why i tend to wait till the discussion matures a bit...and if it has been said to my satisfaction then i refrain from adding to the noise (aside from calls for information that i may have like links to things and such). I don't really have any urges to chit chat with strangers unless further discussion could possibly reveal useful information.Originally Posted by Captain-Electric
Care to tell us why that is? Don't you have thoughts about the game play, any wishes for new power sets, favorite story arcs or events or story contacts, memorable in-game experiences? You...do play the game, right?
I also notice you joined the forums in August of 2010, but how long have you been playing the game? Did you take any time to enjoy THE GAME before diving right into the game of financial forecasts?
As for the reg date, surely you've been around long enough not to rely on reg dates and post counts. If you dig back i explained that while ago...don't have that link on hand but i can explain again.
Prior to Freedom, i had trouble justifying 2 subbed accounts so i decided to let my main account lapse. Since my secondary had more open server slots i decided to keep that one but my only forum account was tied to my main so i had to register this one at that time...that's the reg date you see. After Freedom i can once again post on that account but i already had several current posts with this one and i don't care to manually migrate all my subscribed threads so i just stayed here.
But if reg date is your thing, i'll reply here shortly with that account.
EDIT: Oh and if you're really interested...i've always had both accounts subbed uninterrupted till that moment. And yes, i've been here since CoH beta but wasn't really into the forums at the time so i only registered when the game asked me to when i created my game account. -
Quote:He might've been referring to the "600,000 Super Packs" thread. Possibly extrapolated from the "3 million individual superpack cards redeemed" statement from Second Measure's anniversary address, though i think it was mentioned elsewhere also.Originally Posted by Starsman
Where can I find said post? My Search-Fu failed me so am forced to ask.
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Quote:That's not necessary since, although it's not painting the game in the rosiest of light, doesn't make it "doomcrying". And why would i refute it...the numbers topic is one of the few i can respond to.Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
I wonder how long it will take him to go thru his posts and count the ones where he didn't natter on about the finances so he can refute your post by saying something along the lines of, "That's not true. I only talked about the finances 263 times. That means I talked about other topics 82 times."
Now if the list of numbers i posted above is in reverse order, then you'd see me say "it's the highest its ever been" time and again. But i suppose if that happened, i'll garner replies accusing me of being a fanboy.
Eh, internet...what can you do except ride the wave. -
Quote:Yes i have.Originally Posted by SpyralPegacyon
Uh, you have seen the numbers post-Freedom, right?
Code:KrW (mn) USD (approx) Jun-2004 11,135 9,545,901 Sep-2004 9,403 8,138,054 Dec-2004 10,937 9,923,067 Mar-2005 6,341 6,172,648 Jun-2005 5,806 5,752,863 Sep-2005 6,412 6,225,233 Dec-2005 15,706 15,049,039 (CoV) Mar-2006 6,523 6,571,375 Jun-2006 5,532 5,733,156 Sep-2006 7,429 7,657,858 Dec-2006 5,532 5,808,610 Mar-2007 5,954 6,242,317 Jun-2007 6,370 6,806,603 Sep-2007 5,721 6,153,197 Dec-2007 5,401 5,857,540 (NCSoft buyout from Cryptic) Mar-2008 5,416 5,657,921 Jun-2008 5,743 5,629,661 Sep-2008 6,193 5,808,868 Dec-2008 6,865 5,027,992 Mar-2009 6,837 4,829,698 Jun-2009 6,673 5,179,637 Sep-2009 5,471 4,400,302 Dec-2009 3,928 3,351,182 Mar-2010 3,348 2,913,135 Jun-2010 3,491 2,989,656 Sep-2010 5,709 4,808,316 (GR) Dec-2010 3,239 2,853,598 Mar-2011 3,055 2,723,752 Jun-2011 2,787 2,567,666 Sep-2011 2,812 2,597,660 (Freedom-partial) Dec-2011 3,435 2,992,497 (Freedom-all) Mar-2012 2,890 2,551,122 (Superpack #1)
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Quote:No, i did see it. There's not a lot of topics i feel i can respond to but i do read many of them. But i mostly had these in mind when i replied:Originally Posted by Aggelakis
I see Pebblebrook hasn't seen Arcanaville's awesome Super Pack Revenue post.
* KrW numbers totaled from NCSoft's quarterly numbers report, USD calculated with exchange rates from oanda.com (mostly for context)Code:Total Yearly Revenue KrW (mn) USD (approx) 2004 31,475 27,607,023 2005 34,265 33,199,783 2006 25,016 25,770,998 2007 23,446 25,059,657 2008 24,217 22,335,820 2009 22,909 17,760,819 2010 15,787 13,564,705 2011 12,089 10,881,574 -
Quote:If going by total revenue, then i wouldn't say CoX was doing financially better than ever. More like it's essentially at its lowest revenue point in its lifetime...both on a quarterly basis and also yearly total.Originally Posted by Jetpack
It is? I don't pay attention much at this point, but I didn't realize it was doing better than ever.
Will have to see what happens with 2Q when that's released in a month but i'm getting an uneasy twitch that it might be a bit lower still or at the most close to the same which doesn't reflect the kind of growth one would expect from adding an F2P option.
And after about 10 months with Freedom's current design, maybe some re-evaluation is in order.
Not necessarily to make IOs free for all but something. -
Quote:Just got home to verify and that bolded portion is incorrect. I haven't yet resubscribed since my accounts lapsed. And when i delete an unlocked alt (token used), the slot does become empty but your server slot token is recovered to be used immediately to unlock another alt.Originally Posted by Aggelakis
If you unlock an empty slot, create a character, then delete the character, you have an empty slot again. Slot choices are (semi) permanent.
Note: "Semi" permanent because you do get the slot back as a server token to assign where you wish if you subscribe and drop back down to preemie again. But if you never subscribe, you never get that slot token.
Tested with:
Global slots: 0
Server used/total: 13/18 (unlocked 13 existing alts)
Empty slots: 5
As-is, i clicked to unlock another existing alt and it gives the prompt to use up a server slot unlock. (cancelled)
Then i filled up the 5 empty slots with throwaway alts...
Server used/total: 18/18
Clicked that same existing alt to unlock it and it gives me prompt that says i don't have any unlock tokens left.
Deleted one of the throwaway alts
Server used/total: 17/18
Clicked that existing alt again and once again it brings up the prompt to use up a server slot unlock.
Just for the heck of it, also tested by deleting an existing locked lowbie alt that was created prior to Freedom and never unlocked. It of course left an empty slot and did not recover a slot token.
Behavior is the same i experienced when Freedom first launched. Don't know if it's just happening on my account...maybe others can test. -
Oh and one thing about the server slot unlocks (assuming this wasn't changed recently) you don't have to use them on existing characters. If you have alts that you haven't played for many days, you might not want to unlock them but instead use the server slot token to unlock an empty slot (if you still have some available) and start a new alt on that slot.
If you don't like that new alt and delete it, you get that server slot token back.
I can check to see if that's still the case when i get home but i would think it is. -
Quote:When Freedom launched i started my 2nd account which i let lapse a while back and started leveling up the usual content for me and i didn't notice much of a difference except for the number of character slots. But since i didn't use the other alts much, i only unlocked the ones that i would use and the experience wasn't much different for me.Originally Posted by Really_Big_Bang
Was thinking about leveling up some of my alts, and taking a break from my main for a month or two. Would I be missing out on anything as a Freemium player?
The slots and the vip exclusives like incarnates and base rent was the most noticeably missing. But aside from incarnates, the others are manageable.
EDIT: Of course it's under the assumption that at this time you weren't leveling your alts in the Exalted (VIP) server.
Now if your reason for letting your account lapse for a couple months is NOT because money is tight. Then use the $15/mo you normally reserve for the sub and just buy points with it. You'll have at least 2400 pts to buy the other "free for VIP" content like the mentioned zones and ssa.
Side benefit...if they happen to have a sale on one of those content while you're premium, well you'll have points and the ability to unlock them permanently at the discount price. -
Quote:I guess it would also depend on what metric they were thinking of when they said it was a success. It could be number of players or, to me i would think it'd be about sales exceeding the cost to develop...not necessarily a specific percentage like 10% of the playerbase. But either one doesn't have to mean majority of customers...just enough to exceed whatever target they had in mind.Originally Posted by seebs
If the claim is "more than 50% of all accounts which can log in bought at least one super pack", I'm pretty sure the answer is no. If it's just "more than 50% of accounts which have logged in since super packs went live bought at least one", I can't tell, but I would have thought that "successful" would be in the 5-10% range.
If their target is for instance 100k superpacks and they sold 600k then that's a success but it doesn't mean a majority of the playerbase were involved.
Also another thing to consider is...what would the word "bought" mean. Buying a superpack doesn't necessarily mean NCSoft getting more money because people could have "bought" them with free perks (stipend/tokens) that NCSoft gave out.
If those were used, then in essence, NCSoft gave away superpacks to players. -
Quote:They are just trying to avoid speaking in absolutes...it's PR speak. As for the slow part...when cash shop items are involved..."looking into it" means less about player feedback on it (though it is taken into account) but more about viewing the financial data. And that could possibly mean looking at trends that span multiple quarters.Originally Posted by Darth_Khasei
Despite them saying they are not closed I think this is a bit more accurate. They certainly seem to be rather slow in their thinking about the delivery system.
It is interesting that superpack 2 looks to be released in 3Q instead of 2Q leaving a 1 quarter gap between spikes in superpack launch sales. -
Quote:It wasn't quite the case during (and a little before) Freedom's launch. Numbers not just in revenue but also subscribers and of course concurrency has all shown an increase.Originally Posted by SuperOz
Going Rogue was probably the last big attempt to generate new revenue for this game, and now we've shifted to a hybrid model instead where whilst new revenue is going to be generated, it's unlikely at this stage the game was going to grow in terms of numbers.
Revenue went from approximately 2.5mil USD to around 3mil. They also said subscribers showed an increase (though they made sure there's no hint of the magnitude of that increase) in the graph in slide 8 of NCSoft's GDC presentation on the subject at least till early in 4Q 2011.
EDIT: No actual subscriber number given on the graph so just have to see the visual in that link.
Though i know what you mean about maintaining that growth down the line.
* Side note: There were a few 50% off sale on GR's box and digital form around that time but those promos ended before june (3Q) and a little before that graph started increasing.
EDIT: Oops, forgot to mention the $10 GR 1 day sale on 7/15/11 and the $1.99 CoX for new accounts only promo on 8/17/11. -
Quote:Well if my conclusion, as some may allude to (not you), is that the game is dying, then yes i agree that would be incorrect. But there could be a disconnect here that i'm missing so i should ask...what do you think my conclusion was?Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow
Revenue numbers have proven to be badly misleading in the past. Irrespective of what conclusion you draw based on them, the fact remains that you shouldn't be drawing conclusions based on them.
Before it got sidetracked that is. -
Quote:That reply wasn't a comment on methodology, it was a reaction to an implication that my posts here had CoX's demise as subtext from this post of yours:Originally Posted by Arcanaville
That would be the incorrect lesson. What's damaged is not the conclusion, but the efficacy of the methodology.
To which i denied saying anything about CoX's lifepsan in this thread.Quote:Originally Posted by Arcanaville
The simple connect the dots analyses of NCSoft revenue numbers were projecting this game would be dead in 2007, and 2008, and 2009, and 2010. That tends to damage their credibility somewhat.
If that wasn't your intent, then sorry...and regard that last reply as a mistaken knee-jerk reaction. -
Quote:Yes, which is why i don't say anything of the sort.Originally Posted by Arcanaville
The simple connect the dots analyses of NCSoft revenue numbers were projecting this game would be dead in 2007, and 2008, and 2009, and 2010. That tends to damage their credibility somewhat.
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Quote:Interesting that you got "this game is in terrible shape" out of re-evaluate the freemium experience but yes, now i remember why i ignored you before your hiatus. Oh well, i better stop before the thread further devolves i guess.Originally Posted by Nethergoat
Yes, because an 8 year anniversary celebration clearly indicates the game is in terrible shape.
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Quote:Wasn't commenting on the industry...just here in CoX. It's nice you're paying extra...just need even more of that here apparently.Originally Posted by Nethergoat
The business model works, that's why it's taking over the industry.
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Quote:I'm sure there are...a number of them are probably previous VIPs. But so far it's not showing much.Originally Posted by Neuronia
I expect there are a lot of "nickle and dimers" out there, that spend a little each month on top of the usual subscribers who carry the freight.
Here's the revenue spike from Freedom. Included 4 quarters because the start of it spanned 2 quarters even if it's only a couple weeks before 3Q closed. That 1Q number includes super pack#1
Here's GR's spike:Code:Qtr Revenue (KrW) Avg Exchange rate (qtr) Revenue (USD) 2Q11 2,787 1085.42165 2,567,666 3Q11 2,812 1082.51283 2,597,660 4Q11 3,435 1147.87098 2,992,497 1Q12 2,890 1132.83473 2,551,122
Code:Qtr Revenue (KrW) Avg Exchange rate (qtr) Revenue (USD) 2Q10 3,491 1167.69275 2,989,656 3Q10 5,709 1187.31793 4,808,316 4Q10 3,239 1135.05837 2,853,598
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Quote:Incentives yes, effective in terms of drawing in more revenue? Debatable.Originally Posted by Nethergoat
Freemium gameplay does its job admirably- provide the possibility of extensive exploration of the game world while still holding back some game systems to act as incentives.
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Quote:Not knowing what NCSoft expects from CoX's current business model would make it hard to determine that future. But i can't imagine them jumping for joy based on the numbers so far. Looks like Freedom gave CoX only a moderate, albeit fleeting, boost in revenue. The GR expansion gave a higher boost and without the benefit of the F2P crowd.Originally Posted by ClawsandEffect
It wouldn't happen quite THAT fast.
It would require at least a year's worth of Paragon giving crappy profit reports NCSoft.
But your basic point is valid. If the devs gave everything away for nothing, the game would cease to exist much sooner than it will with the current business model.
If it's not grabbing that crowd much, maybe their (free/premium) experience needs to be re-evaluated. -
Quote:Not sure how long those career postings have been there but it is curious it says "next gen" on them.Originally Posted by VoodooGirl
I would still like to believe that this "next gen MMO" is not itself a new game or a COH 2.0, but an upgrade to the original COH. Like, building a new game engine to break free of Cryptic Studios greatly haggard 1999 engine, but can still maintain the current game we have.
Usually when i see game-related news mention next gen it refers to consoles. And some of those job postings list experience in multi-platform or online game platforms like xbox live and PSN being desired.
Hmm, guess that just adds more fuel to the speculation bonfire heh. -
Quote:There's one difference i can think of...the price for the amount of content if it were a boxed expansion versus piecemeal at the mtx shop. Though, GR might not be a good example since when it launched, there were complaints that it was a bit light on content compared to other games' expansions.Originally Posted by Agent White
Games have been selling expansion content for decades, this is no different. It's just instead of buying a whole expansion like Going Rogue, you're buying stuff piecemeal.
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Quote:I would think premium's true advantage (if disregarding the vip exlusives) is not really the points you buy/spend but at some point in time you would likely have enough to eventually stop paying money and keep those things you bought during the same time a VIP would be paying their sub. And if that VIP ever decides to cancel, they'll be in the same situation as the premium, unless they never stop paying.Originally Posted by Hopeling
At this point, Premium's advantage has basically disappeared just trying to get back the features I would have lost by dropping from VIP.
Actually forgot about the reward token, thanks for reminding me. Some additional info to consider:
Premiums get 1 token for every 1200 points bought not dollars spent to buy the points. If you buy the $15 point bundle which gives a 120 extra bonus points on top of the 1200, those count towards the reward token award. So if one buys the $15 point bundle every month for a year, you'll get 15,840 points which will qualify you for 13 reward tokens for that year.
For premiums who are already T9, accumulating reward tokens doesn't do much. At minimum, premiums will have to stop buying the $15 pt bundle for a month and use that money towards a month subscription. You should (theoretically, considering the state of reward token award system) still get a reward token for that month. During that month as a VIP, you can use your accumulated reward tokens to claim the T9 VIP items. Once claimed, you do not lose them when you go back to premium. At least so far. -
Quote:Not sure if you're just trying to decide whether to keep your sub or are advocating for more VIP perks. If the former, only you can decide if the VIP perks are worth the monthly fee to rent them.Originally Posted by American_Angel
I hadn't really considered the incarnates, but as to the other stuff...you can unlock it all with points.
I tried premium at first...I had 22 character slots. The $15 would buy more...permanently.
Even signature arcs are able to be bought.
So...aside from incarnates and SG creation/rent, I see no point.
If you're fine without those perks, then something to consider: Freedom is live for about 6 months now. If you've been here throughout that time, sum up all the points you used, not acquired from purchase or stipend, but actually used in the store. Then compare with points you would've gotten in 6 months if you used that $15/mo budget on points instead of a sub.
Can't verify in-game right now but going by the wiki, you would have close to 8,000 points by now that you can use instead of 2,400 from only your stipend and still be within a $15/mo game budget
[edit: 3,300 points from 6months of stipend since you're a t9 VIP]
8,000 points can get you 25 character slots to add to your existing 22, still less than what you unlock with a sub so it depends on whether you can use that many in 6 months. Less slots if you use some of those points for other things of course. If you have alts that you don't really use much, instead of unlocking that alt, you can use the server slot token to unlock an empty slot to make a new character.
Though i'm not sure but i think VIPs can unlock up to 48 slots per server and premiums can unlock only 36. (need in-game verification)
If you mostly use your base for decorating/rp and teleports, you'll be fine as a premium. You will have to remove all rent items though and many of them are used for aesthetic design.
If you're fine with doing what you've been doing for the first 6 years of CoX's history, which is mostly make new alt, get to 50, make new alt...then premium is beneficial. But new content is usually what keeps people and not sure how many of their future content will be incarnate related. -
Quote:There's no need to read deeper meanings into Zwil's post.Originally Posted by Schismatrix
Oh i did, but i figured it was Zwillinsidevoice yanking the chains of all the forumites who try to read deeper meanings into every detail of a redname post.
He's very clearly doing product placement/integration or subliminal advertising in his review...much like those shows where the actors drive off in a car and all of a sudden one starts explaining merits of gps, voiceactivated bluetooth and rear view camera.
Quote:Originally Posted by Zwillinger
This item [Beast Mastery powerset] has wolves in it which makes it intrinsically sweet and worth 800 Paragon Points by itself, but once I created a character [character slots], that's when the magic happened [magic costume pack]. After checking to ensure that the costume I created [extra costume slots] for my shiny new avatar would properly cover my girth [barbarian costume pack], I walked from the tutorial to Mercy Island and was immediately approached by cat-girls [animal costume pack]. The feline beauties knew from the wolves at my side that I, like a wolf [blackwolf vanity pet], am a mysterious loner who knows how to 'howl at the moon' from time to time (if you catch my drift!) [coyote travel power]. The cat-girls that approached me wanted to know if I would be their boyfriend [valentine pack] and/or give them infamy for something they called RP. I told them no, because they didn't have a compelling enough backstory [mission architect story slots], and frankly a man with a wolf-pack shouldn't settle for the first thing that comes to him.
I arrived at the trainer, turned on my Prestige Power Slide (walking is such a drag!) gliding side to side so that my wolves would show. While I was browsing training enhancements, I could hear the sound of spurred boots on the pavement behind me. I turned around to see a super powered dream in a rocking new Gunslinger Costume [gunslinger costume pack], pistols drawn [dual pistol powerset] standing there. She told me she liked the wolves at my side, I told her I wanted to be her sidekick. She offered me a swig from her Enriche™ [drinkenriche emote], and I hopped on the back of her Flying Carpet [flying carpet travel power] and flew into the rest of our lives. Thank you Paragon Market [buy now from the store].
Hmm...ok, maybe there's a slight chance you may be correct in your assessment Schismatrix.