Originally Posted by macskull
We already know it's not possible, and we've got three years' worth of time and an entire subsection of these forums behind us. By all means, go to the market subforum and claim that it's possible to manipulate market prices and make huge profits, but don't act even a little surprised when everyone tells you you're wrong.
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PvP IO and Purple drop
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Stealth IOs are currently are in the 100 mil+ range you can regularly obtain PvP IOs and purples for considerably less.
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Level 15, 100m+
16, 17, 18 ~33m ave
19 33-150m
22, 20m
28, 5-12m with a 30/40
29, last sale 11m
31, alternating 20m and 5-6m
in the 40's, a bunch of 555 sales, and a level 50 buy it now price of 22ish.
leaping level 50s? 100k.
Below lvl 20, should be able to obtain for 20m or less.
Slot it in sprint or a vet run.
You can't spend Reward Merits at all to get a purple or PvPO, and spending Alignment Merits on a Stealth IO will cost you 1/10 or less than a purple or PvPO. Moreover, you can only obtain certain, generally unpopular purples and PvPOs for 100M or less. My assertion stands.
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I can't spend Rands either. Unless you are arguing that its easier to earn merits and purchase directly, than it is to generate inf by any activity and buy from the market your assertion falls flat.
Well, my point is that I do play with the market, all the time. When the market was new, I did spend time messing around with it, trying to influence prices, and while there was a fair bit of time between my experimenting and that post on the Market forum (the only one I remember that outlined proven market manipulation), its points about trial and error and ease of losing your shirt sure matched my experiences.
I really think, though, that my long-term experience as a both a buyer and seller of goods has taught me a lot more about the market's behavior than those early experiments. It's exposed me to both activities one needs to do in tandem in order to manipulate. What that experience tells me is not that manipulating the price of things is impossible, but that, in general, it's not at all easy, and not at all certain to succeed even when you find a good target item. It's also very time intensive while you're doing it. In addition to the above downsides to actual market manipulation, the market has many other much less risky ventures that will still pour money on our heads. They likely don't pay out as well as fast as a successful run at manipulating something valuable, but they are much more likely to succeed in general. Hard-core marketeers tend to go for the sure thing, and move on when their scheme becomes too crowded or risky. So market manipulation is a non-trivial activity, it might fail, and there are less risky activities available with still excellent returns. Despite all this, claims that people are manipulating the market are loud and common. More loud and common, I think, than makes sense for the challenge and risk involved in true manipulation. So is nothing on the market ever manipulated? I know better. Is manipulation ongoing and rampant? I don't believe it's likely at all. If you're going to manipulate the market, having someone help you does make it easier to manage in terms of "labor" and theoretically doubles your investment capability. I don't think it fully doubles your odds of success, but there's no doubt it will have a better chance than one person acting alone. Adding still more people probably has some level of diminishing return, but will still enlarge the investment pool and continue to reduce the time each person spends having to managing (and creeping upwards) their purchases. |
I am not going to devalue anything you posted here as you are at least open to the possibility that it happens. That makes us at least in the same ballpark.
baddog "Market manipulation exists"This more or less summarizes the points of view, and I doubt anything is going to change this, so let's leave it there.
macskull "it's not possible"
uberguy "So is nothing on the market ever manipulated? I know better. Is manipulation ongoing and rampant? I don't believe it's likely at all."
I am, in fact, making that assertion, especially for Alignment Merits and items that cost 100M or more. Is it easier than earning 100M for me? Probably not, but I'm not assuming market use here, and the market is how I would do that.
Of course Quat's data tends to undercut the idea that you have to pay 100M for a Stealth IO anyhow, which makes that point moot, and makes the notion of spending any kind of merit on them silly unless the goal is specifically to have one at the lowest level possible.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
That is a bit misleading, as only certain (low) levels of run speed stealth have gone for that much.
Level 15, 100m+ 16, 17, 18 ~33m ave 19 33-150m 22, 20m 28, 5-12m with a 30/40 29, last sale 11m 31, alternating 20m and 5-6m in the 40's, a bunch of 555 sales, and a level 50 buy it now price of 22ish. leaping level 50s? 100k. Below lvl 20, should be able to obtain for 20m or less. Slot it in sprint or a vet run. |
For Stealth IOs, I am, in fact, making that assertion, especially for Alignment Merits and items that cost 100M or more.
Of course Quat's data tends to undercut the idea that you have to pay 100M for a Stealth IO anyhow, which makes that point moot, and makes the notion of spending any kind of merit on them silly unless the goal is specifically to have one at the lowest level possible. |
Buying stealth IOs directly with merits is meerly a poor way of doing it.
The best way of gaining either in terms of time efficiency is earning inf and buying them.
Please compare apples to apples.
Edit: Asuming 30 minutes for 5 tips 36 minutes for 5 tips+alignment and dual boxing = 11 hours for a purple, 15+ hours for pvp io vs Several random purples/hr for a good farmer or 5 hrs/pvp io using MacSkulls wrong number of 1/60 kills
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Earning an arbitrary level Stealth IO is easier than earning a desirable PvPIO or desirable purple IO in every possible way one can try to obtain them. Desirable here is defined by the items that have high demand compared to their supply. That's what my statement meant in context.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Not sure how 555 inf (not 555k or 555mill) is more expensive than 25% of pvpIO's. Worst case, cost is effectively equal unless you are going to argue over less than 1k inf.
Or are you running around slotting pvp IOs on your level 12?
If so, I admire your tenacity in their acquisition.
Even then though, you can acquire jump (which will go into sprint or vet movement powers), flight and tp stealths for less than 20m at level 15 on the market. If you wait a couple levels that price comes down.
Since the drop rate on the glad unique is the same as the other pvpIO pieces (afawk), a lot of people purchasing them since it costs 2 bill on the market and over 2bill off the market to acquire one, while various pbaoe pieces and what have you go for in the 10-20m range.
People aren't paying those prices just because they feel like it. They are paying them because that is what it costs to beat out the other people who want a glad proc.
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Don't be dense - I'm not denying that manipulation exists, but I am saying it's not as easy as you make it out to be, for reasons that have been shown several times in this thread. I've even offered you my inf to prove me wrong, but you haven't taken me up on the offer. Why's that?
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I am the 99%. Occupy the World.
Minister of Infinity's Secret Police, Official Mooch of dUmb and League, Official Purveyor of Free Straws, the Most Interesting Man in the World.
http://www.change.org/petitions/ncso...city-of-heroes
just stop. you have a bad habbit of taking something and twisting it so that it fits your idea of what is going on. kinda like saist and some others. so just stop.
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We have one guy who is digging out special case pricing, and making unjustified assumptions about the drop rates for the IOs. We have another who sets up takes the worst way imaginable to get these things and goes see it will take you forever to get these things but you can get stealth IOs really quickly.
As to the desirability ? To who ? I find the purple sleep and confuses very desirable, the Ragnarok chance of is also very nice. My controllers, blasters, and defenders slot them all very effectively. The PvP hold set is also good, and the javelin volley quad and triples are also very very good for rounding out the abysmal targeted AoE sets.
We have one guy who is digging out special case pricing, and making unjustified assumptions about the drop rates for the IOs. We have another who sets up takes the worst way imaginable to get these things and goes see it will take you forever to get these things but you can get stealth IOs really quickly.
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Try putting together a list of recent sale prices for PvPOs by piece. Then feel free to discuss whether any of the pieces that cost anything like 20M are representative of what folks on the forums are referring to when they use a vernacular reference to PvPOs. We don't have to be pathological and restrict the discussion to the +3% defense unique - there are plenty of other PvPOs well over 20M. I'll help you out. The 20M examples are to the collective set of PVPOs what Coercive Persuasion is to purples. In fact, some of them probably aren't even looked on as favorably.
Personally, I find it hard to believe that you're that detached from the vernacular of the game, which leads me to conclude that you're arguing this point for the sake of argument. Then again, you argued some pretty outre angles regarding highly optimized builds in another thread, so maybe you really are badly disconnected from what people are doing and saying.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
When people talk about purples and how they are expensive and hard to find, do you think they're talking about Coercive Persuasion? Sure, there are characters for whom players slot that set, and if a character both has a sleep and benefits strongly from high recharge, it can be a very smart thing to slot. But because some people slot it does not mean that it's the exemplar of what people think of when they talk about purples in general, especially in the context of being hard to obtain.
Try putting together a list of recent sale prices for PvPOs by piece. Then feel free to discuss whether any of the pieces that cost anything like 20M are representative of what folks on the forums are referring to when they use a vernacular reference to PvPOs. We don't have to be pathological and restrict the discussion to the +3% defense unique - there are plenty of other PvPOs well over 20M. I'll help you out. The 20M examples are to the collective set of PVPOs what Coercive Persuasion is to purples. In fact, some of them probably aren't even looked on as favorably. Personally, I find it hard to believe that you're that detached from the vernacular of the game, which leads me to conclude that you're arguing this point for the sake of argument. Then again, you argued some pretty outre angles regarding highly optimized builds in another thread, so maybe you really are badly disconnected from what people are doing and saying. |
As to what the folks on the forum say, well I just got done reading a thread asking for regen to be buffed when it is being buffed. In another thread, I spent 20+ posts trying to explain why using base recharge numbers doesn't produce meaningful results, so I can only go by what is actually said. Of course, all you had to say was you meant the most expensive PvP and Purple IOs. In that case a fair comparison would have been the most expensive items you can buy with some form of merit.
Would that thread you are referring to be the one where you argued, that inherent fitness pool was a negligible change ?
Of course, all you had to say was you meant the most expensive PvP and Purple IOs.
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Flipping that same thinking around, I don't actually think it's fair to say that Stealth IOs can be represented as costing 100M+. Level 15 Celerity Stealth IOs specifically might cost that much, but anyone looking for a Stealth IO not only can look to other levels, but can look to a completely different set that performs 100% identically for a fraction of that price.
Then, one needs to consider that when a pool A/C/D Rare recipe gets a really high price (let's call that 100M+) a player has the option of avoiding that direct market cost in the form of merits (of one kind of another) to create them outright. You and I very likely consider earning 100M no problem, and would both consider using merits that way inefficient. Yet we both know though that there are players who would either find it easier or perhaps just personally more enjoyable to spend two to four days pumping out some sort of merit to buy a level 15 directly. But if they want to do that with a purple, or heaven help them, a PvPO, they better hunker down.
So including all the optional ways to create a recipe outright, and looking at median or average market prices in order to make statements about whole categories of IO, if I were going to speak about either PvPOs or purples and ask whether they were harder to obtain as a category than Stealth IOs as a category, I would absolutely say yes. And I further extend that to all the pool C/D Rares as a category.
Would that thread you are referring to be the one where you argued, that inherent fitness pool was a negligible change ? |
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Except that's not what I said. You seem very keen to devolve everything to the edge cases and try to frame the argument as if all references must refer to those edges. Try comparing the average or median prices of purples to the same calculation for non-purple rares. Then try the same for PvPOs to non-purple rares. If all PvPOs were 20M except for the Panacea and Glad Armor uniques, then it wouldn't be common to call PvPOs expensive. There's more to it than that.
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I'm referring to that thread, but that's not what I argued. I argued that the change was a more dramatic change for characters that didn't have Fitness (particularly including the low end of the game where fitness is not presently an option) than gaining three powers (but no extra slots) was for most previously optimized builds at the high end. I frequently stated that I agreed that there was a shift in power at the top end, but I argued that it was not as large as some were suggesting, because they were combining what they could do with three extra powers with room for improvement that was already present in their build, then calling that that whole improvement the change introduced by inherent Fitness. |
The simple rebuttal is all the builds people have done for I19 with marked increased levels of performance. I am particularly enjoying the Shield Defense builds that now have one with shield.
Its an interesting kind of edge case when in the case of PVP IOs most are not that expensive, and in the case purples you have pieces from 3 sets that are horrendously expensive, 2 set that are relatively inexpensive, and 4 sets that gyrate between the price levels.
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Would you care to make it quantitative and provide either the median or average prices? Use whichever you think best supports your position.
Actually what you said, was that having 3 extra power picks was not a big thing thing for a "Min/Maxed build", that the ability to free up extra slots or pick powers that could be beneficial with minimal slotting would not be transformative or a major improvement. |
The simple rebuttal is all the builds people have done for I19 with marked increased levels of performance. |
I am particularly enjoying the Shield Defense builds that now have one with shield. |
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Ah, yes, your favorite arguing tactic: qualitative.
Would you care to make it quantitative and provide either the median or average prices? |
Use whichever you think best supports your position. |
And I reiterated that again above. Swift, Hurdle and Stamina and Health at level 10 with no cost to other power or pool picks? Transformative. Three powers when you're already heavily min/maxed? Not typically transformative, with specific exception made (repeatedly) for builds with high defense who can add even a little more, because of how defense stacking mechanics work. And as I pointed out, not one build actually produced included only changes relating to the new powers. They all included additional improvements that were already available, then tried to say that the three extra powers made the entire delta possible. Were they defense capped before? If not, why didn't they already have it? If they are defense capped, how often do they require a big chunk of resistance that they want to be careful to only activate when they can manage the crash? How is obtaining this power transformative? |