Another_Fan
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Posts
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Quote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperinflationOriginally Posted by Obitus
Yes, we get it, you're using a different definition of hyperinflation. You've spent several pages aggressively and obnoxiously arguing semantics. Congrats.
I get it you don't like the word. Its fearful to you. You like arguing we can't have the effects of hyperinflation. That's a different thread I encourage you to start it.
Can you even call purples the highest luxury items in the game ? Most of the people I know have at least one really good build.Quote:To take a page from your book, I'm sorry that you think the highest luxury items in the game are analogous to household appliances. -
Quote:Originally Posted by Rylas
No, it involves measuring prices per transaction. Not per limited selection of items, as you've been parading around in either the argument of purples, PVP's and other high-demand/low-supply items (or sets within a fraction of level range they are available in).
While it's easier to see if there's inflation (in general), the level of inflation is not determinable at player level access. Whether it be the definition of hyperinflation you're going by, or anyone else is going by.
Once again you can get information about the general price of items in the game. You can't get information that isn't even exposed to players.
Edit: Left out get in "you can get information" -
Quote:Originally Posted by GuyPerfect
Regardless of the technical feasibility, I'm opposed to this idea from an ethical standpoint.
Having a detailed market history complete with past transactions and the prices that things are posted for directly undermines the system as it has been implemented in the game, and consequently gives an unfair advantage to those in-the-know over those who are just playing the game the way it was provided to them.
To anyone who would set up a centralized market database: don't. Reading character builds or reminding the user to cast buffs is one thing, but when it comes to side-stepping an information boundary that the devs put in place for a reason, you're treading their side of the privacy pool.
They don't share your private information with others, so don't go sharing theirs.
Just a different set of advantages for different people in the know. -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan 
The obsessive need of the people taking the no hyper inflation side to say "We don't have hyper inflation, and there are no problems from it"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
I don't know about how near or far we may be from [market collapse]. I doubt anyone with a player level access to the market could actually say.Because how close we are to market collapse involves player psychology and the ability to track how many transactions are occuring off market, how many items are being produced and don't make it to market because it isn't felt worthwhile.Quote:Originally Posted by Rylas
If player level access to the market doesn't qualify anyone to claim we're near market collapse, then I don't think player level access gives anyone enough information to claim there is hyperinflation.
Measuring market inflation just involves measuring prices. -
Quote:Person A: Is it raining ?Originally Posted by Obitus
Because the term hyperinflation has various and far-reaching RL implications, it is not factually incorrect to say both that we have inflation -- even extremely high inflation -- and that it isn't hyperinflation. You are free to disagree on that point, but your obsessively contrarian behavior in this thread on which you claim not even to have a strong viewpoint suggests to me that your purpose here isn't simply that you have a kind of detached, academician's preference for sound argumentation.
Person B: The roof has no leaks and we have plenty of pots
Person C: Looking out the window, Its raining
Person B: THE ROOF HAS NO LEAKS AND WE HAVE PLENTY OF POTS WHY ARE YOU TROLLING !!!! -
Quote:I am sorry you missed that I was commenting on the quality of arguments being presented. The obsessive need of the people taking the no hyper inflation side to say "We don't have hyper inflation, and there are no problems from it"Originally Posted by Obitus
If you can point to a plausible RL example of hyperinflation wherein:
- The general populace is responsible for printing all the new currency that's inflating the market;
- Everyone in the general populace has equal capacity to produce any good any of any kind;
- Everyone in the general populace has equal capacity to sell/trade those goods for the inflated rate;
- And the everyday staples required for functional existence are both price-capped and in infinite supply,
Then we can discuss the appropriateness of the term hyperinflation, in-game, through the lens of RL. When you were just banging the numerical definition drum, you were on much firmer ground; many of us thought you were missing the point -- that the term has alarming RL connotations and that therefore it's inappropriate to use the term here -- but at least you had a superficially valid argument about hyperinflation in CoH.
The moment you introduce RL comparisons, though, you must acknowledge that COH's little closed market is fundamentally different -- largely immune to the worst problems traditionally associated with inflation.
I am also boggled at how you missed many pages of my making the distinction between the two. -
Quote:I don't know about how near or far we may be from that. I doubt anyone with a player level access to the market could actually say. I do know I have seen a large rise in volume in people looking to trade items rather than sell them on the market. This isn't just the very top tier but reasonable level purples and pvp ios as well.Originally Posted by UberGuy
We are seriously nowhere near that.
The only things that sell over the cap are extremely rare and desireable PvPOs. The only things that sell for a large fraction (>15-20%) of the cap regularly are purples. -
Quote:Sorry you didn't get it.Originally Posted by Fulmens
You may have meant that, but you didn't actually say that, or anything like that. You threw in a chunk of stuff in CODE tags and didn't explain it. Pardon my failure to read your mind.
So ? Would you argue that inflation isn't occurring because electronics prices have been in decline for the last 40 years ?Quote:... Even the part where Devastations went down by a factor of 4?
... even the part where a 3 million inf piece of salvage was still a 3 million inf piece of salvage several years later?
Good for you, you found 2 things in a market that has 900+ recipes over 40 levels, over 100 pieces of invention salvage and I have no idea how many specialty IOs, that didn't increase.
Lets take your positron and to make life easy and even more in your favor make it 75. I like to deal in a few purple sets on any given day there will be at least 5 of these moving.Quote:Here's a sales ratio point: I buy, craft and sell a particular Positron's Blast at around 10 a day. Every time I see the last 5 sales on the "buy" side none of them are mine. Every time I see the last 5 sales on the "sell" side- depending on price rigidity, it is generally visible that only one of them COULD be mine. I check a couple times a day. We have as a LOWER BOUND 28 data points per day from this: the 5 recipes and 4 sales each time I look (18 total) and the 10 I actually sell. It can be no lower than 28 sales. Let's say, since I don't check during peak hours, that I see half the sales and the other half happen when the servers go yellow. I think I'm seeing more like 1/3, but let's be conservative here. 28*2 = 56 a day.
From a prior experiment ("let's see me lose money trying to own a market niche again!"), there were roughly as many of a certain IO (I think a Mako's pool B) placed on the market at level 50 as there were from level 30 to 49, inclusive. I see no reason to doubt this ratio in the rest of the game. 56*2 = 112.
Thats a 15/1 ratio, not your hundreds or thousands to 1 ratio you talk about.
You win that prediction. Its real easy to find the flaws in these posts.Quote:Here's a prediction: I did 15 minutes of work on this post. I predict you will spend less than 2 minutes either rebutting it with a very brief answer, or will completely ignore it like the Devastation data point.
Let me ask you this. If on the nightly news, all of sudden the housing figures, automotive sales and major appliances were removed from the inflation figures because these were the priciest things you would purchase and produce tunnel vision, how would you react to that ? Lets say after that with the new figures in place, it was determined there was no problem for the poor with rising prices because federal subsidies to the poor actually made it cheaper for them to live than it was in the past.
If you wouldn't buy that kind of B.S. on the news why are you pushing it here ?
Heck sorry maybe you would buy into that. -
Quote:Whether or not hyper inflation is a problem for an MMO is an entirely different topic. The majority of the people that talk about the problem aspect usually do so in the following form "No we don't have hyper inflation and it isn't a problem"Originally Posted by Grouchybeast
What really matters for the health of an MMO is 'can new players come into the game and gain access in a reasonable timeframe to shinies appropriate to the amount of effort they expend?' At the moment, I would say the answer is still yes.
I happen to like our inflation situation. I like that it isn't uniform. Its benefitted me quite a bit. Is it a problem for the game ? Maybe but thats not my problem. -
Quote:To show the flaws in the Goldilocks scenario ? Absolutely.Originally Posted by Fulmens
That would be the "fantasy scenario" where your alleged rebuttal started off with "taking the scenario presented" ?
I wouldn't be here in good faith if I wasn't willing to take what people say as true at face value and ask what are the implications.
Uber said "Here I just made some crap up about the market, I redefined what inflation means, and here using this random concept it doesn't look anything like inflation"
I said "Well using your numbers if I wanted to put together a build it doesn't look so good"
I have no idea what the sales ratios but in this thread I haven't inserted wild guesses and asked anyone to believe them. You have.Quote:Positron's Blast outsells Ragnarok by, what, a hundred to one? At least? Let's say a typical set of Posi has gone from 30 million to 40 million. Let's say a typical set of Ragnarok has gone from, I don't know, 700 million to 3 billion. Feel free to look up some numbers, I'm sick of mentioning Devastation and having you go "look! an obvious distraction!". And let's say Posi outsells Ragnarok by 100 to 1.
When you did present data, it actually jibed well with 300%+ inflation over three years. -
Quote:I am willing to entertain that I am missing it. But its hardly deliberately obtuse to call fantasy numbers fantasy, and building an argument on someone's fantasy numbers insanity.Originally Posted by Ignatz
Not that I needed any more posts from you to confirm this, but once again you are being deliberately obtuse. It's obvious and blatant. Probably best just to put you back on ignore.....in fact, that's exactly what I intend to do.
Now when you say I am being deliberately obtuse, you mean that I am deliberately missing things ?
Well desirable purples are up near the billion inf mark again, my global channels are filled with people that want to trade purple to purple, and as I write this it looks like half the forum front page is people that want to trade off market.
Or for another example when Uber says he has confidence in the inf, just what percentage of his total wealth is it that he has inf ? My guess is its even less than mine, and he spends nearly as fast as he makes it. So when he says he has confidence in the inf, that would be "not very much confidence at all" -
Quote:The only real options you have for mez are to build for some kind of defense and or to make breakfrees.
A way to deal with mezzes so as to allow for soloing - Not achieved - Tertiary priority as this is a team character
Breakfrees shouldn't be too bad a solution for you, the only toggle you have to worry about dropping is world of confusion. BTW you might want to change your slotting for that power to include the contagious confusion proc. It is actually better than the power itself. -
Quote:Hyper inflation : cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% (26% per annum compounded for three years in a row)Originally Posted by UberGuy
- Folks calling it "hyperinflation" seem to be basing that firmly on the prices of the market's most rare and thus expensive items, or specific examples (such as specific level ranges) of popular but much more available items.
- Looking at specific items or level ranges does not factor in transaction rates for those items, which is a critical factor in how their increase in prices contributes to the overall market's level of price inflation.
I knew I could count on redefinition of the topic. -
Quote:I'd laugh, and in fact I am.Originally Posted by Fulmens
Someone's buying all those E's and D's and slotting them. That person is seeing less than 250% inflation.
I'd like to be reasonable and balanced here, but you say things like
in response to a post that included the line
If you don't like the phrase "strawman", how about "Bearing false witness?" "Making up convenient arguments and attributing them to other people?" "Lying about what other people say" ?
What do you call that, when you do it yourself?
We go from Uber guy's Goldilocks market to your everyone is poor and nobody makes a good build market or even wants a good build ? Or is it that most people don't want quality builds but there are all these IOs being traded every day any way ?
What would you call it when someone says here is my example "it doesn't mean anything but it shows things aren't so bad" and based on the "example that doesn't matter", anyone who is saying otherwise has "Tunnel vision" -
Quote:Originally Posted by UberGuy
That's a good point, and one I had overlooked. Thanks for mentioning it.
The rest of this thread seems to have gone to the americans, but I wanted to add something on the topic of just looking at the price of goods, and not knowing their transaction volumes.
Looking at individual parts of the market is confusing about whether or how much inflation is going on. Even if we don't cherry pick, none of us likely has broad enough market data to say for sure what's going on over time in terms of transaction volume. We know some stuff has gone up dramatically in price, some stuff has gone down, and some stuff hasn't changed much. What we don't know for sure is how much of the total market's money volume those items contribute. Other posters have alluded to or outright said that, but I wanted to try and express it a bit more visually, to try and get it across to more folks if possible.
Imagine we have this simplified market scenario:
So in this imaginary market, we sell 5 items a day that cost 500M inf, and 1000 items a day that cost 2.5M inf. Across the whole market, 10B inf changes hands a day.Code:Label #/Day Price Total/Day Market Total A 5 500,000,000 2,500,000,000 10,000,000,000 B 25 100,000,000 2,500,000,000 C 100 10,000,000 1,000,000,000 D 300 5,000,000 1,500,000,000 E 1,000 2,500,000 2,500,000,000
Now, let's look at an imaginary version of this market from three years ago, and imagine that prices were quite different.
In this older market, our top tier items (row A) used to cost 1/10th of what they do today. The next tier down costs 1/5th of that they do today. Items in Row C didn't change. Maybe this is a category of goods whose prices stayed consistent, but more likely, this is a mix of that, plus some stuff the price of which fell, but was replaced by some stuff the price of which rose. Rows D and E are goods that used to cost 1/2 and 2/3 of what they do currently. Across the whole market, 4B inf changed hands a day.Code:Label #/Day Price Total/Day Market Total A 5 50,000,000 2,500,000 4,000,000,000 B 25 20,000,000 500,000,000 C 100 10,000,000 1,000,000,000 D 300 1,500,000 1,500,000,000 E 1,000 1,500,000 1,500,000,000
Now, pretty clearly this example market experienced broad price inflation. In both cases, there are 1430 items being sold per day, but in the "old" data, that represented 4B inf changing hands, and in the "new" data, it's 10B inf. But measured across the whole market, the above example wouldn't be "hyperinflation" based on even the FASB criteria, despite the fact that its most expensive items went up in price by a factor of 10.
Now, before anyone jumps on the example, while I tried to make it look something like our market, it's far too simplified for me to be trying to say that's really the ratio in then and now. My # of transaction/day column is probably wildly off-base, and I don't really think we could then/now compare price categories directly the way I did - there would probably just be too much drift of items between categories. It was just meant to illustrate more visually that even huge price increase don't necessarily equate to huge inflation.
I'm pretty sure a lot of people look at our market, tunnel vision on the best shinies and assume the market has gone to hell because those things' prices have shot up like crazy. It probably doesn't really work out like that.
I was wondering if anyone was going to point out why this wasn't relevant and at best a rationalization of a position taken earlier.
First seeing as this was lost on the poster
So yesQuote:Definition inflation: In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. .
Huge price increases do equate to huge inflation. That is what inflation is.Quote:It was just meant to illustrate more visually that even huge price increase don't necessarily equate to huge inflation.
The concept was presented earlier in this very thread but seems to have not penetrated
Quote:Originally Posted by peterpeter
As I recall, part of the real-life business of defining and measuring inflation is defining a basket of goods.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_basket
Of course, different people buy different stuff, in real life as well as the game. I found this FAQ interesting. Actually, this one might be more fun to read. It has pictures.
I wonder if we could develop some kind of CoH market basket?
Now taking the scenario presented
We get a build going from 580 mil inf in the old market, to 3.675 billion now.Code:New Price Old Price # used New build cost Old build cost A 500,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 5.00 2,500,000,000.00 250,000,000.00 B 100,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 10.00 1,000,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 C 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 10.00 100,000,000.00 100,000,000.00 D 5,000,000.00 1,500,000.00 10.00 50,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 E 2,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 10.00 25,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 Totals 3,675,000,000.00 580,000,000.00
I suppose given sufficient tunnel vision you could find someway not to call that inflation.
Edit: Wait The OP did just that managed to create an example of massive inflation and then worked very hard to find some way to say it wasn't. -
Rain of Arrows for me hands down. For me what you describe as minuses are positive joys.
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Quote:Decrease the recharge on burst and slug.Originally Posted by Muon_Neutrino
Up FA target cap to 16 to match other nukes, widen cone to 30 degrees. Add a minor fire DoT to m30 grenade. The set still would suck for ST, but I can't think of an easy way to fix that without breaking either the cottage or power balance rules.
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Quote:Originally Posted by Rylas
New players coming in aren't going to be conncerned with getting purples and PVP IOs. By the time they've gotten the game figured out and leveled a character (without PLing) to 50, they'll have found enough drops to seed they're first build. At which point, they'll have plenty of means for getting a good build without purples and PVPs. It's been shown in the forums that anyone with even limited play time can go from 0 to over a billion on a level 50 in a week. That's plenty for making a decent build.AndQuote:Originally Posted by Rylas
I never said all new players, just the ones I've played with.
VSQuote:If you believe the market inflation is as bad as you say, then using the market and making billions off (especially in excess of what you obviously need) of it only makes you a hypocrite.
Let me see you attempt to turn the discussion from the measure of inflation in the game to the way I participate in the in game economy and I am trying to derail the conversation ?Quote:My use of the word hypocrite didn't rely on the religious or moral aspect of its use. More of the principles. I can understand why you'd need to derail it the other direction though, since it helps distract from the failing points of your arguments.
At this point I don't know whether to give you or Nihilli the derail award. -
Quote:Definition Hypocrisy:Originally Posted by Rylas
If you believe the market inflation is as bad as you say, then using the market and making billions off of it (especially in excess of what you obviously need) only makes you a hypocrite.
a pretense of having a virtuous character, moral or religious beliefs or principles, etc., that one does not really possess.
And btw you also misused the concept of strawman in the post above as wellQuote:Originally Posted by Rylas
While part of me tells me "I'm only feeding one of them" . . .
I'm not sure how showing the illogic conclusions you assert has become a morality issue for you. Sorry you couldn't make a valid point in the thread. Better luck next time. -
Quote:This has to be one of the funniest posts I have ever read on these forums. Please don't take this wrong I am sure you are at that tender age when right is right and wrong is wrong and the world is a terribly black and white place, where evil is to be dealt with harshly and success is derived from virtue. Where if someone sees a wrong they are bound by moral force to right it.Originally Posted by Rylas
If you believe the market inflation is as bad as you say, then using the market and making billions off (especially in excess of what you obviously need) of it only makes you a hypocrite.
Honestly, if you're that upset with the system, why take part in it so much? You seem to have no problem using it to your advantage. You boast of the rewards you reap, then turn around and condemn people you claim to be part of a massive deceptions about the market. You feign concern for the new player base, but you're not actually doing anything to help them. If you're really as worried about new players being turned off by the market as you say, then write a guide on how to use the market. If you know as much as you think you do, then surely you can give them the guidance needed to stear the market.
To be as kind as I can and to address your points as well as possible. The world is not that way at all. I can see inflation in the game realize its bad in general for the game even call for it to be fixed, all the while both contributing to it and even benefiting from it. I can even laugh at people who make excuses for it, or make ridiculous statements about it. -
Quote:So you feel its OK to say snapshots of the market can't characterize inflation in a meaningful way but a few people you personally know is adequate to characterize the entire player base ?Originally Posted by Rylas
I'm not sure what my experience with new players that I know personally has anything to do with not being able to know the exact amount of inlfation that has taken place. All I'm showing is that any new player can still enjoy the game without having uber-millions/billions. Are you suggesting new players should be able to slot purples and pvp IOs out the gate?
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From my own play, I have always found /mental to be more survivable.
You have a couple of very similar powers
Buildup = Concentration
Ring of Fire ~= Subdual
Then the sets diverge with fire going more for damage and /mental going for light control and survivability
World of confusion vs Hot feet and or blazing aura.
Drain Psyche vs Consume
Psychic Shockwave vs Fire Sword Circle, combustion, burn.
Fire Sword vs Mind Probe and TK thrust.
These days if I were building a fire/fire I would be building for melee and aoe caps. Much of the new content is designed to ignore S/L defense that was the staple of many suishy builds.
Fires only real control-ish power is fear in hot feet and burn. /Mental has KB in tk thrust that will have bosses flying from you like they were shot from cannons, chance of stun in psychic shockwave, a moderate confuse in world of confusion if you slot it with the purple confuse set.
With /mental I wouldn't be entirely happy going with S/L defense but psychic scream lets you stand back and hit them with aoe damage from a distance when you need to, something that /fire doesn't offer. -
It affects defense granted from powers. Combat jumping, weave, hover, maneuvers etc. All off the base not the enhanced value, or the set bonus value.
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The alpha slot as a whole is not particularly well balanced. (Balanced in this case used to mean benefiting ATs and combinations relatively equally. )
There were some really big winners, buff debuff ats and powersets had plenty of joy from the alpha slot. Melee sets that had trouble getting high recharge because of the lack of 6.25%, and 7.5% recharge levels available to other sets. Sets with recovery powers or self heals on longer timers got a big win out of alpha.
Even /shield got a big win spiritual or cardiac.
At least you can easily adjust to gain advantage, take the medicine pool and spiritual -
Quote:Originally Posted by Rylas
Q: You know what's funny?
A: Someone who would have you believe the rate of inflation is going out of control, but is obviously unwilling to take the step towards reducing inflation by burning all of their inf. That is, of course, if they we're being completely honest to begin with.
I also believe the federal deficit is out of control but I am not about to give all my money to the government.