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The "ROI angle" has been presented in various forms on the forums since the shutdown announcement. All of them, yours included, are wrong in at least two respects. One: the game was not as thinly profitable as your examples suggest: the operating profit of the game was far higher. Two: ROI (really, operating profit is the more proper term here) as a percentage of total expenses would have to be so low so as to be lower than all other alternatives to make it reasonable to terminate the business line, and given the current cash position of NCsoft that theory is untenable. In other words, NCsoft is sitting on so much cash earning very little return that it would be illogical to terminate a line of business just to increase their cash position and make even less.
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Quote:I'm probably a 1600-1700 player on a good day.Btw Arcana, how good a chess player are you given that all the titles are chess related.
The titles are not arbitrary, by the way. I made the leap from Nemesis to Anderssen very early in the writing process. I believe any writer attempting to write a character like Nemesis, or any other character with presumably Batman gambit-like ability should play this game over and over and over again. And if you don't think its the most beautiful example of old school tactical chess ever played, you just aren't qualified to write chess master characters.
(One more trope for the road) -
Quote:You're not going to find out that we're actually all dead and Paragon City is purgatory, or that the survivors of the Coming Storm leave the planet and find a new world that in a million years becomes Champions Online.you know your doing a great job when after the last line I say "no, thats it?! but what happens"
I'm not ruling out Lady Grey being Suzanne Pleshette, though. -
Quote:Heh. True story: I've been kicking the story idea around in my head for about a month, but it has only really come together in the last few weeks. And the little scenes I'm using to illustrate each part is something I only decided to do at the very last minute - literally the day before I posted the first part, so I've been literally making them the night before I've posted each part. I still don't have one for part four: I'm going to try to make it, and the one for part five, tonight.How the hell do you get time to do this AND all your spreadsheets?!
Its fun, though, I have to admit. Hectic, but fun. Also, part four is done but I'm not happy with part five and still tweaking it, and I only have the outline for six. One part exists only in my head at the moment, so I'm really racing against the clock.
Quote:Also are you going to run this... "story" more than once? I hope so. -
Quote:Thanks, and I'm crossposting the parts as I post them here in this thread over at Titan: http://www.cohtitan.com/forum/index....ic,6325.0.htmlIs someone cross posting this story over on Titan because it's too good to be lost in a week.
Also, I've decided that assuming anyone's interested, I'll probably continue a discussion of this story over at Titan post-shutdown on the assumption the official forums will be dead as well soon afterward. This story is, in one respect, my answer to all the questions and complaints I had about the evolving story between origin of power, incarnates, ascension, and the coming storm. I'm trying to be as generally consistent with lore-as-we-know-it as I can be (and I'm not a Lore expert, so its possible I'm making some errors there) but also putting my own spin on what Incarnates mean, what Ascension would have meant, who the Battalion are, and what the Coming Storm really is/was.
The story has an epilogue, and technically it should take place after the game shuts down, but it'll be posted here anyway a couple days before (at one part per day, it'll probably get posted Thursday after my target date for the event on beta). It'll also, of course, be posted at Titan. -
The Immortal Game
Part Three: Removing the Pin
The sun was slowly setting, its auburn disk seeming to merge with the horizon and then slowly descend below it. Mender Silos had lived through a billion sunrises and sunsets, and yet had actually seen so few of them. He could not remember the last time he had stopped to experience one. He could not remember the first time he had stopped to experience one. And though time grew short, he decided that for the last time, perhaps, he would pause to take one in.
The Earth rotated about its axis, and as it did his position upon the Earth's surface changed the radial orientation of his sightline relative to the Sun. The atmosphere altered the Sun's radiation in complex ways, scattering, diffracting, and absorbing photons in a calculable way. There were only a few islands here, north of Peregrine Island, and the Sun slowly dipped below the flat, calm ocean. As the Sun disappeared below the horizon, the man once known as the Prussian Prince of Automatons reflected upon the clockwork mechanics of the world he was about to destroy. To save the world, he would have to destroy it, although that task ultimately was in the hands of another. But there was still a problem in his hands. At best, the plan conjured by the Dream Doctor was flawed. There were many ways it could fail. Which is why the Dream Doctor entrusted it to him. He did not want the Mender, he wanted the Schemer. And Silos would deliver him.
The sky had turned black, and the stars were now visible. They moved slowly in arcs reflecting the rotation of the Earth; too slowly for most people to notice, but not too slowly for Silos who followed their motion for many minutes. As the moon illuminated the landscape, Silos realized that it was only at this moment that he decided to take this final step; the one that would forever seal his fate. The Dream Doctor would never approve, of course, but that was always a problem with those like him: they were rarely willing to do all that was necessary. He was, and one look into Cole's eyes was all it took for him to know it of Cole, and Cole to know it of him. It was something only those of their ilk could truly understand, and truly recognize in others.
It was time. He took one final look at the world he would probably never see in the same way again, and then he was gone.
...
He appeared in a flash within a dark space. It took a moment for his eyes to adjust to the very dim light that was shimmering around him. Phosphorescent moss glowed with a soft, muted aura. Silos found himself in a large underground cave. Strange plants covered the stone walls and boggy ground. His own armor's various sensors and indicators were harsh spikes of light that interfered with his vision and he commanded them to darken. It would not do to be seen as he was, a small speck upon the bottom of the cavern, and he directed his armor to hover himself a full ten meters in altitude. He slowly drifted forward, towards an unusual rockface that appeared to be less overrun by vegetation. He stopped about thirty meters from it and waited. He had replayed this encounter a thousand times in his head and concluded it was important to concede the first move to his adversary.
Although he was certain he was detected the instant he arrived, it was a full ten minutes before anything happened. Slowly, at first, he noticed the rockface shifting. The vegetation seemed different somehow, although he couldn't quite tell in what way. The changes accelerated, and soon the rock face began to morph into a separate structure from the cavern wall. It detached itself, and then began to form a semblance of limbs. It turned to Silos - no, it didn't turn; its features seemed to slowly flow from the side opposite Silos to the side facing Silos, and he was soon gazing upon what appeared to be a giant homonculous of stone and overgrowth. It began to rustle, and then with a sound like rushing air through trees it spoke to Silos.
"Ra..pa..cious... De..spoil..er... You ... Have... Come... To... Seek... Your... Doom..."
The monstrous voice of the Avatar of Hamidon echoed throughout the cave. Silos moved slowly closer to the Avatar as he spoke. "Not exactly. Actually, on behalf of the human race, I've come to surrender. I am here seeking your terms."
"You... Will... Be... Scour..ered... From... The... Face... Of... Cre..a..tion. There... Will... Be... No... O..ther... Terms..."
Silos smiled. "Your terms are acceptable." Silos wondered if the sudden creaking of stone upon stone was the closest thing to surprise the Hamidon was capable of expressing.
"And now here are my terms."
... -
Well let me put it this way: we're working on a way to make that largely irrelevant.
Quote:Someone remind me how to copy a character to Beta Server.
As Kractis_Sky basically points out, its here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/charactercopy.php -
The Immortal Game
Part Two: The Kings Gambit
Marcus Cole looked out upon the vast sea, upon which the structure he stood upon rested. It was beautiful, in an antiseptic way. Not like his beloved Praetoria. The city he protected and the people he nurtured. The city he destroyed, and the souls he consumed. He took a powerful breath and sighed.
"I will be missed. They will believe I have escaped."
"You will not be missed. When you return, you will return to the moment you left. No one will notice your absence."
Cole continued to look out towards the setting sun, if it was indeed a sun. "I know of you, Eisenstadt. Or should I say "Lord Nemesis." I have read of your exploits on Primal Earth."
"Lord Nemesis is dead. I am Mender Silos."
"Quibbling over names is silly."
"If you insist, 'Tyrant'" Silos replied.
"Touché"
"You are here because I have a proposal for you."
Cole paused, and then his gaze narrowed. "Nemesis or not, I do not trust you."
"I am not asking for your trust. There is a great threat approaching."
"I know of it" Cole replied testily. "Your precious 'Incarnates' have brought down all I struggled to create. I am now powerless against the Coming Storm. What could you possibly want from me?"
"I want to give that power back to you."
"Indeed?" Cole raised his brow. "Are you insane?"
"It appears to be communicable."
"I see. And how do you intend to do this? And to what end?"
"The Incarnates will not have the strength to repel the Coming Storm."
Cole snorted. "Only now do you realize this?"
"Don't be smug. You would not have been able to do so either. No: the problem is that the Battalion have grown too strong to defeat by purely defensive measures. Perhaps in time we can come up with a way to defeat them permanently, but in the meantime our priority must be to protect humanity from the Battalion, and deny them the Well of the Furies."
"And how do you propose to do this? Or rather how do you propose I do this?"
"The power of the Well will not be enough. We will seek to merge it with an even greater power." Cole started to speak, but decided against it, preferring to listen. "Have you heard of the being known as Rularuu?"
"I have heard of it. It is an almost omnipotent being, but it is flawed: its power trapped in a kaleidoscope of fractured shards. It cannot help us."
"On our Earth, there was a man named Darrin Wade. He sought to use the power of the Well of the Furies to merge with and control the essence of Rularuu. He killed our Marcus Cole and absorbed his potential to do it. He almost succeeded."
"You seek to have me succeed where he failed. And why would you trust me to do as you require once I gain omnipotence?"
"Two reasons. One: the merging is unstable. You will not be able to maintain it indefinitely, and if you try to do so the power will splinter you as it did Rularuu. You will be as Rularuu is now. For you, I think that is a fate worse than death."
"And the second reason?"
"I know of you as well, Cole. I knew your counterpart on my Earth, but I also know of you. I understand, as most will never understand, why you did what you did. You are an insane man, as I was once insane." Silos raised his hand as Cole started to speak "I won't argue the point, except to say I know your actions on Praetoria haunt you. I know the souls you tried to use haunt you. I know *she* haunts you. In time, you would realize the folly of your actions. Time we don't have."
Silos now turned to Cole. "You want to know it was all worth it. You want a legacy. You're willing to kill for it. I know you're willing to die for it. I know if I give you a chance to be the savior of humanity, you will take it."
Silos turned back to look out across the landscape. "You really have no choice." Silos did not need to see the look on Cole's face to know he had hit home.
"Tell me your plan."
Silos described his plan, or at least Cole's part in it. "This will not work" Cole said when he was finished.
"Of course it will work. If you do what is required."
Cole stared at Mender Silos and seemed to study his face for a long time. "On my world, Gerhardt Eisenstadt died an unknown maker of clocks and toys. It seems I was fortunate in that regard."
"I will take that as a compliment, Cole."
"You realize that even if your plan works, there's a problem. I will be busy using the power of the Well of the Furies and Rularuu to effect your plan. I will not be able to assist you in your battle with the Battalion. You may yet fail before I can bring this to a close. And even beyond that, you are beset with an enormous problem. The Battalion may yet come for you."
"Oh, I have an idea there."
... -
Quote:In general, not everyone "gets" MMO mechanics and gaming mechanics in general. But something you only really fully appreciate if you play lots of other MMOs is the fact that honestly, our devs had almost *no idea* how to keep control of the game they developed, certainly initially, and to a significant extent even past that point. Our game engine and powers systems allow us to do so much relative to what other games allow you do to in large part because the game was originally written by people who literally had no idea how to limit performance and no idea how important it was to do so. Most MMOs have combat systems in which things are extremely predictable for the benefit of the developers. Attacks have very specific, impossible to alter DPS curves that cannot be mucked with except in proscribed ways. So the players know *exactly* how much damage they can put out when they use a bunch of attacks, and more importantly the *developers* also know that, so they can actually balance the game.CoX was/is a complicated game with some concepts that are difficult to grasp.
The notion of the attack sequence, the attack chain, "arcanatime", and the optimal single target output? These things simply don't exist in other games, because players don't have the ability to switch slotting, change the order of their attacks, and *double* their output. They don't have the ability to superbuff recharge and spam AoE. There's no soft-cap to reach, and even if there is in theory, no level of effort gets you anywhere near it. Most of the time, you're fighting over tenths of a percent improvement in performance, using tools everyone knows exactly the benefit of under all conditions.
The bane and boon of City of Heroes is that the devs tossed pistols and hand grenades into a room full of chimps and then charged admission. And we loved them for it.
And amazingly, against all conventional wisdom, it actually worked. -
Quote:The beta server is not the test server. I believe the NCsoft launcher is still available for download for those that do not have it or uninstalled it here: http://us.ncsoft.com/en/launcher/ncsoft-launcher.html. But it has been so long since I've installed anything I'm not sure about the specific instructions to enable the beta client. Can anyone confirm the instructions in this thread: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=232906 are still valid?interesting
is the beta server the test server? I've never been on it - how do I get there?
Reposting the instructions here:
Quote:If you have NCsoft Launcher and Beta installed.
1. Run the NCsoft Launcher shortcut to get the latest update.
2. Double-click CITY OF HEROES BETA in the NCsoft Launchers game list to play.
If you do not have NCsoft Launcher but have COH Beta installed.
1. Click the NCsoft Launcher link: http://us.ncsoft.com/en/launcher/ncsoft-launcher.html
2. Click Download Now.
3. Follow the instruction to install the NCsoft Launcher.
4. The NCsoft Launcher will start at the end of the installation.
5. Double-click CITY OF HEROES BETA in the NCsoft Launchers game list to play.
If you have NCsoft Launcher but do not have COH Beta installed.
1. Run NCsoft Launcher shortcut to get the latest update.
2. The NCsoft Launcher will start.
3. Create a copy of the NCsoft Launcher desktop shortcut.
4. Right click on the new shortcut and open the Properties option.
5. In the Target window, add the following flag to the end of the line:
[space]/LaunchGame=CohBeta
6. Run the shortcut.
7. The NCsoft Launcher will open, starting a City of Heroes Beta installation.
8. Click Install.
9. If you are on Windows Vista or Windows 7, confirm the UAC prompts. (if UAC is turned on).
10. After the installation completes, double-click CITY OF HEROES BETA in the NCsoft Launchers games list to play.
Also, I've heard even non-VIP players can get onto Beta now. I tried with a non-VIP account I have and noticed that a) I could log into Beta and b) I was limited to two slots on Beta, just like I would be on live. Players that think they do not have access to Beta but have not tried recently should retry just to make sure. You may be able to get onto Beta even if you are not VIP and see what we have planned, or alternatively see what I24 would have looked like. -
What is this? See the end of my post here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?p=4426367
Part One: The Immortal Game
"You're insane. And coming from me, that's saying something."
The shadowy landscape, if you could call it that, made The Dream Doctor look even more mysterious, but Mender Silos had seen too much to be moved by such trivialities. But he made a mental note of it anyway, as he always did. Such theatricality could always be useful one day. Assuming there would be more days.
"I Must Concur With The Mender, As Much As It Pains Me To Do So. What You Propose Is Madness."
The voice of Prometheus sounded even more imposing than it normally was - no, not sounded. It *felt* more imposing. It didn't so much sound like it was coming from all directions, it sounded like it was always coming from the direction one focused on. It was always coming *directly at you*. Whether Prometheus intended to intimidate, this was one audience that would not be cowed.
"It is the only way."
The Dream Doctor had proposed this meeting, and its location. They were in Ouroboros, or at least a version of it. This was actually the piece of Ouroboros that lay within Dreamspace, a place where few could navigate and even fewer could locate this nexus of time, space, and consciousness. Prometheus would be able to meet here and Silos, The Doctor grudgingly conceded, would also have the means to find this place with only minor assistance. If his plan were to have any chance to succeed, The Dream Doctor would need help, and unfortunately these two were the best suited.
That did not mean they would be the most cooperative.
"My Guidance Has Led The Incarnates To Defeat Cole, It Will Lead Them To Defeat The Coming Storm."
"Your 'guidance' has brought humanity to the brink of defeat. I have seen this."
"How?" Mender Silos, the man once known as Lord Nemesis, the Great Manipulator and Schemer, spoke a little too soon. In the company of ordinary men, this would have gone unnoticed.
"So you know." The Dream Doctor was no ordinary man.
"What Do You Believe You Know" Prometheus said, although it did not sound like a question. It sounded like Prometheus almost challenged them to say something he could not dismiss as trivial.
The Dream Doctor ignored the implication. "The Battalion has begun preparing for their arrival. They have set the noose."
Prometheus glared, but did not speak. Mender Silos sensed Prometheus did not understand, and could not resist lording knowledge over the ordinarily inscrutable being. "I have tried to see what effect Cole's defeat has had upon the Coming Storm. However, not even my abilities allow me to see more than a few months ahead in time."
The Dream Doctor continued "They are aware of you, Prometheus. They are aware of your machinations. They are not concerned about your attempts to put up any resistance. They care only your interference could cost them their prize. They have surrounded Primal Earth in all directions with a barrier."
"Not just in space, but in time as well," Silos added.
"In space, in time, across dimensions. We are in the center of a bubble that traps us here. And the bubble is shrinking. The Battalion are herding us, ensuring we do not escape their grasp, so that all of the potential of the Wellspring is theirs to consume."
"It Matters Not. The Incarnates Will Prevail, The Battalion Will Be Defeated, And All Will Return To The Path I Have Laid Out."
"No, it won't. The defeat of Cole has weakened the Wellspring. The energy he once commanded has been dissipated."
"It Will Be Returned To The Well."
"Eventually, but not soon enough. When the Battalion arrives, the Incarnates will not have the strength to repel them."
"How do you know this?" Silos had already guessed, but he had to be sure.
"As I said, I have seen it."
"If We Are Corralled As You Claim, How Can You Have Seen Our Fate."
"The Battalion are conquerors, they are seekers and wielders of power, they are ravagers and consumers and destroyers" the Dream Doctor explained. But they are not dreamers. They have no power here. At least not yet. Dreamspace is still open to me, and through it I have seen the dreams of what is to come. The Battalion come, and the Incarnates fight, but in the end they are swept away. They fall heroically, but they fall nonetheless. In every version of every possible timeline, they fall."
"You're still crazy." Silos said, although it sounded less like he meant it, and more like he was trying to convince himself.
"We can still save our reality."
"By destroying it?"
"Again, I Must Concur With The Mender. You Propose Destroying Us To Save Us."
The plan the Dream Doctor had proposed to them was so shocking that at first neither Prometheus nor Silos could comment, probably the first and last time such an event would ever occur in all the multiverse. After Emperor Cole was defeated, The Dream Doctor set his mind upon a quandary. Cole was no longer a champion of the Well. His energy had been released back to the Well, where it could be tapped by the Incarnates who would attempt to defend his world. But it nagged upon him: what if instead of standing and fighting Cole had tried to escape? What if he had fled? Could he have stolen that energy and taken it with him? Perhaps the Wellspring would not allow him to do that. But still it puzzled him. The Wellspring did not control all incarnate power: it wasn't sentient in that respect. It was a concentration of potential and consciousness, but it wasn't an individual entity in that sense. It did not Dream. What if all the Incarnates fled Primal Earth? Would that deny their power to the Battalion? Could that be a way to at least slow them down? And why had none before our world tried that before?
And that's when he discovered it. Only one such as he could truly find it, although a Mender such as Silos would eventually detect it indirectly. The Barrier. The Battalion ensured no amount of potential escaped their rampage by surrounding it, encasing it in an ever contracting container. The human mind struggled to conceptualize what was happening. There would be no escape. Every trajectory would be blocked. Except one.
Dreamspace was still free of the Battalion's touch. Wells do not dream. The Battalion, beings empowered by countless Wellsprings of potential, use their power to make thought into reality. They hunger, they aspire, but they do not dream. They were so far removed from what they once were they could not even conceive of dreaming. And because of that, their power did not extend to Dreamspace.
And that's when The Dream Doctor conceived of The Plan. The Battalion had done most of the work. They had created a barrier from which all Incarnate potential could not escape out. The Dream Doctor would take that, and convert it into a barrier of Dreaming. It would be an impassable moat of Dreamspace through which nothing from the outside could enter without first entering Dreamspace. And that was anathema to the Battalion. His world would be saved.
The problem, of course, was the cost.
"Destroying is a strong word. I propose ... transformation."
"As grass is transformed within a cow."
"Don't be crude Silos. We will take the *potential* of the Well and use it to *actualize* our world within a protective shield."
"We'll be destroying reality and spitting it back out again."
"Do you have a better idea, Last Deceiver?"
Silos almost winced. The Dream Doctor knew more of Lord Nemesis' future and Mender Silos' past than he let on, if he knew of that epithet and the circumstances surrounding it. And in truth, Silos did not have a better plan.
"And how about you, 'Keeper' of the Flame?" The Dream Doctor was playing all his cards now, for there would not be another hand to play. He stressed the first word of that title, to prove he knew that which Prometheus had kept secret for so long. The Dream Doctor spent months learning all he could about these two "men" and the task ahead. He knew he could not really threaten either of them, but among such beings as they, knowledge was power. He needed to prove he was willing to play this out to the end.
"Suppose we agree to this. I assume you have a way to make it actually happen."
"I have the basics. But I need two things, which is why you are here. I will need someone with the ability to control Incarnate power. That is why you are here, Prometheus."
"And as for me?"
"You, Silos, I wish I could do without. But I need something only you can provide."
"And that is?"
The Dream Doctor smirked, and for the first time since the meeting began he looked right into the eyes of Silos. "I need a Nemesis plot."
...
Handy Dandy pointers to the parts posted in this thread:
** Part one, The Immortal Game, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?p=4426369
** Part two, The Kings Gambit, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...2&postcount=13
** Part three, Removing the Pin, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...6&postcount=15
** Part four, The Sacrificial Castle, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...4&postcount=33
** Part five, Endgame, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...7&postcount=37
** Part six, Destiny, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...1&postcount=47
** Part seven, Time's End, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...&postcount=165
The last part will be posted tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest
-
I could go on forever.
This game has been a special one for me, and whatever happens in the future, it will always have a special place in my memories. As an MMO, as a game design, as a software implementation, it got practically everything wrong. Everything the players saw, and so much the players didn't see: so many errors, mistakes, failures of design. Fundamentally, it really got only one thing right, but its a thing virtually all other MMOs get wrong. It let us play the way we wanted to. Not always in every detail, and not always to the same degree we wanted, but we could look like what we wanted to look it, go where we wanted to go, see what we wanted to see, be who we wanted to be in the game. This is still something most MMO designers believe you simply cannot do and make a good game. They are all wrong, in a way they will never understand, and possibly will never learn. But we know better.
I've mostly said what needed to be said about the dev team in the many threads that have sprouted up since the shutdown announcement, but as with the game itself I think its important to state that none of them were perfect, in fact many of them were very flawed. I still think some didn't know how to add. But I think they all collectively believed not just in the game, but in we the players of the game. They believed we always deserved more than we were getting and tried to get us more. They believed we deserved to participate, to the extent they could allow, in the direction of the game. Until the day comes when an open source MMO springs to life, City of Heroes will be the example of a dev team and a playerbase working together to shepherd the development of a first-rate MMO. And I think in the final analysis, we did a pretty good job there.
I've played many MMOs since the release of City of Heroes, and I've seen the forums of every one of them. Compared to us, they are cavepeople with stone knives and bear skins. The collective community of players that over time played, investigated, tested, analyzed, and deconstructed the game and then educated the playerbase has been far and away the best, period. Only the spreadsheet jockeys in Eve Online compare analytically, and no game anywhere compares to the overall effort to analyze what is actually one of the most complex MMOs out there in terms of game mechanics. I'm very proud to be a part of that community that stretches all the way back to beta and all the way to the present day.
I'm not going to get all sappy with the goodbyes. And in fact, I'll probably become more active on other forums like the Titan Forums after the holidays. For those asking, I honestly don't know where I'll be next. I wouldn't have even predicted being here back when I first started playing: I thought this would be a nice couple month distraction when I rolled that first alt. I have lifetime subs to Champions Online and Star Trek Online, and with some of the devs moving to Cryptic I'll probably at least try those out again. A lot of people are strongly suggesting Secret World to me, and I did play some in the beta so I might go that route. But to be honest, its hard to imagine a game taking up my time and attention like City of Heroes. In the final analysis, I was here as much for you as for me. I liked playing the game, but I also liked contributing to this community, and that's not a role I see myself leaping into again soon.
As to the shut down itself. I wish the whole entire truth about the shutdown was public knowledge. It sucks knowing it was not inevitable, and yet also probably unavoidable. What I will say is this: this game was not a failure. This game did not have to end. This game could have been completely self-sufficient. The game, our developers, and our playerbase could have continued on indefinitely. There are no *real* numbers that charts to an inevitable demise at any future date. This game did not die: this game was killed.
I can't prove it of course, like many things over the years I've asked people to trust me when I've said them. So some people will reject this as being baseless, and some will reject it just because its me saying it. But for the rest of you, this is the straight truth: we did not need to die. We were not even close to death, or projected to die. The game you loved and the game I loved did everything it needed to do to succeed except to avoid falling into the crosshairs of idiots. Our game was a good game, good enough to be a commercial success. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. They are wrong.
Lastly, I will just say that I've been working on something for the past couple of weeks with a couple of other players, and I still don't know if I can pull it off reasonably, but enough pieces are in place for me to at least make an attempt. Some time next week, if everything goes well, I'm going to try to pull off an end of game event run by the players for the players on the beta server. There are limits to what I can do there, but those limits aren't necessarily what you think. I have a story I've written up** that encapsulates (what I hope to be) the backstory of the event: its my take on The Last City of Heroes Story. Confession: I work with numbers and analysis every day. But what I actually enjoy doing is writing. I've simply never had the time given the work I did on the analysis side of the game to work on fanfiction. I thought the AE would provide an outlet for that, but the honest truth is that all the patching and breaking of arcs permanently damaged my enthusiasm for writing in the AE. Outside of those early AE attempts, this will be my first, and possibly last, actual City of Heroes story in writing. I hope you like it.
So start copying characters to beta, and install the beta client if you haven't done so yet. If we pull this off, this can and will only happen on beta.
I wish I could go on forever.
** Part one, The Immortal Game, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?p=4426369
** Part two, The Kings Gambit, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...2&postcount=13
** Part three, Removing the Pin, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...6&postcount=15
** Part four, The Sacrificial Castle, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...4&postcount=33
** Part five, Endgame, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...7&postcount=37
** Part six, Destiny, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...1&postcount=47
** Part seven, Time's End, is posted here: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...&postcount=165
The last part will be posted tonight or tomorrow morning.
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Quote:That would not be consistent with the Paragon developers being completely surprised by the shutdown. Its more consistent with the facts that NCsoft did not push back at all, and in fact approved all of the major Paragon Studios expenses, the overwhelming largest of which would be staff salaries and the increase in staff over time.However, it does give the impression that Paragon Studios had to beg and scrape for every single penny though to justify their existence.
Among the unequivocal facts we do have are that Paragon employees were really NC employees and were hired by NC (NC even advertised those positions directly). Paragon was using those employees to develop new titles as well as support CoH, and NC was directly aware of that (being that they were involved with defining the employee positions being filled). That that hiring happened over a significant period of time means NC was themselves authorizing a significant amount of expense for Paragon to internally develop new titles. That's not consistent with NC specifically starving Paragon for resources, at least in general.
If NC was pouring resources into Paragon for the development of a new title and then suddenly pulled the plug on the entire studio and City of Heroes, that would explain why the developers were caught off guard. That is a dramatic one-eighty. -
Quote:In point of fact, I have an idea where Ms Lackey is getting that number from, and the problem appears to be that Ms. Lackey does not possess the requisite accounting knowledge required to fully understand both the context of that number, and the fact that without divulging confidential information she would be unable to support that number with published information sources, making them dangerous to assert.As far as I am aware, she has always defended that figure, although there was enough evidence to the contrary to prove that CoX was *not* making $800K/month profit.
All I can say is that given the information available to me, there's an accounting context under which her numbers would be accurate, if all of my sources in the matter are themselves accurate, and does not *directly* contradict the public information available. I do not believe she's mistaken or deliberately misrepresenting information, I believe she's allowing herself to fall into the crossfire of a spreadsheet duel for which she's unable to properly defend herself.
Hypothetically speaking, I would assume that an objective analyst of the situation would consider the possibility that the assertions from the development team that the game was significantly profitable, and the outside analysis that suggests it was not, isn't necessarily a prompt to determine who's mistaken, but actually a potentially important data point in an otherwise opaque situation. Hypothetically speaking, participants of this forum would not be completely unfamiliar with such situations occurring in other environments, and might extend a little latitudinal mercy to those that might be conveying incomplete information from within one. -
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Quote:I am not as familiar with Sean as I am with some other devs, but from what I do know and from what I've seen since the shutdown, Sean seemed not just interested in developing content, but also pushing the technical envelope of the content creation tools and the content engines themselves, which is consistent with his original interest in the Architect. I hope he gets a chance to bring that philosophy to STO, because while there are things I like about STO and things I don't like about STO, my biggest verdict about that game is that it has enormous untapped potential. An infusion of talent that wants to expand the limits of the game can only be a good thing for STO.Congratulations to the Dev Team who've found new employment in the MMO industry. Star Trek Online (per their forum) players look delighted to have a content dev join their MMO. And if Sean "Dr Aeon" McCann is there, I'm even more tempted to check out STO after 11/30. Thank you again, Dev Team, for CoH! Thank you also to the many players who made teaming up a joy!
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Quote:You know, I'm not trying to be deliberately coy, but I'm not sure. Those rumors are not strictly true (as far as I know). On the other hand, its possible someone heard something ambiguous and interpreted it that way, when it turned out that's not what was meant.Yeah, without more solid facts it's just a watercooler discussion. But that complicaton, is that different from the rumored disagreements about some legalese NCSoft wanted with the deal is it?
Because that's the mistake I originally made. -
Quote:The part that makes me sad is that all the tin foil hat theories out there are false and absurd, but the truth (at least as I know it) is weirder and more absurd.As tinfoil hat theories go, i have something similar but it has CoX's revenue history and future outlook as well as loss in confidence in Paragon's ability to develop a growing revenue stream, as a more central theme.
If CoX's yearly revenues stayed at the same level and/or rose from the time of the Cryptic buyout ($25mil) instead of what it's looking to be in 2012 ($9-10mil), then i would believe that we wouldn't have this discussion and NCSoft would probably might have greenlit another project for Paragon even with GW2 and B&S planned launching in NA.
I also have a more outlandish variation of that tinfoil theory in which Paragon deciding to go forward with the other project without NCSoft's full backing so without additional staffing funds, they started poaching people off of CoX probably around the time Second Measure announced his job role change in February this year and NCSoft didn't appreciate that.
Yeah, that one's a bit more out there. -
Quote:I have not been told a specific number by anyone, but what I know leads me to believe that rumor is false, and significantly too low. While I don't know what was offered, I can say in my opinion a credible offer would have probably been between $8M and $15M, maybe $20M on the far outside, and that's based on a train of thought any bidder would be equally aware of.There have been news from the start about attempts to a buyout when a redname reportedly outted about talks with NCSoft and investors.
But what still is not known is exactly what kind of money were offered. Without that, there would be questions behind the investors' thoughts on the game's profitability.
The only rumored amount someone mentioned was $3mil. If that were true then i suppose the investors seeing yearly revenues of at least $10mil would definitely think they would get their money back and be worth the investment...even if it meant slashing the staff and taking it to maintenance mode for a year then restaff after they get their money back.
But then $3mil is not really a reasonable offer.
This may all be academic. Whatever different parties (and I believe there were more than one) might have been willing to offer, its possible it never formally got to that phase because of a complication I haven't seen leaked anywhere yet, and I'm not going to be the first. -
Quote:In fact, given what I've been told and a revised analysis of the game's profitability based on that information, I work backwards and conclude about 50% - 60% of Paragon Studios was probably working on City of Heroes, and 40% - 50% was working or at least allocated to working on (various incarnations of) Project 2.Correct me if I'm wrong but this is based off the entire Paragon Studios 80-man state.
Saving CoH would not have necessarily meant saving Secret Project or its team. It may sound a bit harsh but the game would have been possible to be saved and sustained with the core CoH team alone, something that I guess may mean (pure guesswork) between 50% and 70% the team size and operational costs.
This is something I have no specific knowledge of, but if I were on the management team before interacting with NCsoft, my strategy to investors might be something like this: the game is profitable if we keep just the part that supports the game. We know you can get your money back if we do just that. Give me one month to pitch you an original development concept the R&D wing of the company can produce, and if you don't like it we'll pair down to the costs associated with just supporting CoH. If you do like it, invest in that concept separately from your investment in CoH.
That gives me the strongest position to convince investors to save the game, while also giving me a hail-mary shot to save the rest of the company that doesn't weaken my position to save the core game. -
Quote:You're talking about the NCsoft side of the equation, but I'm more focused on the buyer side of the equation here. If a group of insiders attempted to buy the game, unless one of them has a rich uncle that doesn't know how to count, they needed investors. Those investors almost certainly got to see far more complete numbers on the operational costs and revenue of the company: they would demand it.That's probably true. However if it's not in the companies nature to sell anything, so alien of an idea that they have no idea where to start to value the property or is hesitant to spend the money to determine the value, then the idea of selling is DOA.
This also ignores the whole Asian business dynamic of having either a long standing relationship with another business or recognition that the other business has a similar standing in the business world. A newly formed group looking to purchase one of your assets wouldn't be looked at seriously no matter how much money they were offering. How presumptuous and insulting that a group of now former employees with backers we (NCSoft) aren't familiar with think they can succeed when we had already decided that their game and studio can't.
And even if they were open to the idea of selling the IP, the next step of determining a "fair" value still may have put it beyond reach of any of interested buyers. While they may have already determined a value for writing the game and studio off, that isn't the same kind of analysis you would do to come up with a sale price. Then toss in the reports that Koreans in general are tough business negotiators and the fact the game's remaining life was on the clock, I just couldn't see it being pulled off in time.
Of all the people with complete information about not just the revenue but also the costs and profitability of the game, none are talking, but at least one generated a signal: which ever set of them decided to attempt to back a buyout. They aren't talking either, but their action strongly implies that whatever numbers they saw, it told them that the game was still profitable, and so much so that even with the unavoidable attrition due to the sunset announcement in the first place it would still be profitable, and beyond that it was very likely to remain profitable long enough for them to get their money back.
There's simply no way a game that was barely profitable before the sunset announcement and dropping in revenue would be worth investing in. So from my perspective, everyone estimating profitability by looking at the published revenue and guessing at the operational costs of the game and concluding the game was not likely to be more than marginally profitable are betting against people who have seen the direct numbers on both sides of the ledger and were willing to bet millions of dollars going the other way.
I never bet against the people who have already seen all the cards.
Now, whether NCsoft ever intended to sell is a separate question. But no one goes to a company and asks if something might be for sale, hat in hand. If *any* attempt occurred at all, it was a serious attempt with serious money backing it right from the start. And that money would not be available to a marginally profitable game. In fact, its explicitly the (credible) talk of an insider buyout move that caused me to *reduce* my older estimates for the operational costs of the game from about $6-$8M down to $3-$5M. Because those are the only numbers that *allow* for a buyout of any kind, insider or otherwise.
As to your cultural observation, as an Asian myself and as someone that has been involved in that sort of thing, I would have to disagree in some respects that NCsoft's reluctance to sell is a cultural bias of the type you describe. As in most businesses, but with specific cultural twists, the issue comes down to relationships between people. As I've said since immediately after the announcement and just now above, corporate culture is one thing, but decisions are ultimately made by individuals. Whether such a deal had any chance at all is less a question of whether an Asian cultural bias would prevent it, and more a question of whether the specific actors involved believed it was in their best interests. There's a cultural aspect to that, but individuals are much more complex in their agendas than that.
To put it another way, I do not believe most Asian companies, or even most Korean companies, would have acted in the same way NCsoft did. -
Quote:One of the things I've said for years in this context is that companies are not hive minds, and companies do not make decisions; people make decisions.A company just months away from a minor (15%) stock sale that went for $680 million had to shut down a potentially profitable subsidiary with $8-10 million annual in operating costs. I can see where you're coming from and it makes some sense, but I look at the larger picture and I'm scratching my head.
Here's a narrative that makes no sense at all: Apple has built probably the strongest retail chain in all of retail, with the highest revenue per square foot and some of the highest customer service reviews in the history of retail. So it reduces its budget on retail store operations, cuts staffing, curtails employee training, and even reduces the operational cleaning of the stores, which causes retail employee disruption and customer satisfaction to drop. This persists until its ridiculously obvious its causing problems, before Apple decides to go back to doing things they way they were being done before.
Here's a narrative that makes perfect sense: John Browett is hired by Apple to replace the wildly successful Ron Johnson who left the company to become the president of JC Penney. He wants to make his mark at the company and prove he can improve significantly upon his predecessor, so the first thing he does is change the fundamental formulas that were put in place by Johnson that determine staffing and operations at retail stores, with an eye to reducing the cost of operations and improving profitability. At first he's allowed to do this even though its obviously disruptive to a highly profitable division of Apple because Tim Cook himself is an operational efficiency fan, but when its clear Browett's strategies aren't bearing fruit and he's unwilling to compromise on them, Apple is forced to remove him and revert his changes.
The narrative for NCsoft doesn't make sense because NCsoft is not an individual actor. The narrative would probably make a lot more sense, at least from a motivational point of view, if the narrative was focused on the right set of people. However, that's a lot more difficult narrative to construct in this case. -
Quote:The conclusions you're drawing are not entirely unreasonable given the specific data points you're looking at. However, let me ask a question. Do you believe the rumors that a set of insiders attempted to buy the game from NCsoft? Because whether one believes that or not has a dramatic impact on any analysis of the profitability of the game.The game could have been very profitable as long as you only included operating costs like the server hosting, bandwidth, customer support, the forums and the website. But as soon as you include Paragon Studio into the mix and can't see how it could be considered very profitable on sales of only $10-11 million a year. Unless of course people are suggesting that the numbers NCSoft reported as sales revenue are a fabrication.
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Quote:According to the site, Guillermo del Toro (Hellboy, Pacific Rim) will soon begin work on a DC Comics adaptation for Warner Bros. called Heaven Sent, and it will bring together some of the most well-known supernatural characters from that comic book universe, including:
Deadman
The Spectre
Swamp Thing
Constantine Hellblazer
Phantom Stranger
Zatanna
Zatara
Sargon
Etrigan the Demon