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I didn't miss because of my accuracy (6% global +ToHit, 77% global +Acc, 70% acc in OG). I'm capped against +4s with unslotted powers on my TA/Dark.|
Originally Posted by Rodion
I looked into this same thing a couple of years ago when a friend had the same complaint. He said his DM/DA scrapper was missing all the time. I did some tests on my own DM/DA scrapper and checked the combat log. I found that the combination of OG and the streakbreaker code was forcing misses on some of my other attacks.
I don't pretend to understand streakbreaker, but when you mix high-accuracy and low-accuracy attacks (temp powers like Sands of Mu or damage or stun auras that aren't slotted for accuracy), the streakbreaker appears to force misses at inconvenient times. If you're running with one of these auras try turning it off and see if you feel like you're hitting more often. |
I missed because the series of events caused my attacks to sidestep the streak breaker. I had one attack which missed. The next power which had a hit roll was OG, and because my previous attack had missed, the streak breaker kicked in and forced a hit on that OG check. The next thing that happened in that sequence was my second attempt to hit with a single-target attack, which rolled over 95%, thus causing another miss, and since the streak breaker had just forced a hit, it ignored the miss roll on that attack. This occurred because the streak breaker only forces one hit for every X rolls, with X in my case being two (maximum possible, can never be reduced to one), and since I had a minion inside OG's radius, it counted toward that two.
I've also had rare situations where I've missed a target with a single-target attack, then missed it a second time with a cone/AoE. Why? Because the first miss caused the streak breaker to kick in and force a hit on the initial target in the cone, then random bad luck caused a second random miss on that first missed target.
Nothing that can be done about it, it's just a quirk of the way the streak breaker works. If we were capped at 99.99% Acc, it could still happen because the streak breaker doesn't account for every power separately, it accounts for all powers equally.
And as ArcticFahx pointed out, the streak breaker never forces misses. Ever. Not for players, not for critters, not for pets, not for anything. It only forces hits, and it only forces hits when you've missed a specified number of times determined by your last hit chance.
Stormfront_NA said:
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Arcanaville isn't always right. I actually have a saved PM from a conversation where she appeared to be wrong and I appeared to be right. That was 2005. |
Unfortunatley, too many players, simply say random is random, and your luck is simply bad, and therefore there are no problems, the game is perfect. While I accept that ramdoness is inherently "random", still statistical principles and trends tend to be consistent, so if I have a mathematical chance to miss 5 times out of 100, I should only miss 5 times in a one hundred roll sample. But when I miss 20 times out of 100, its indicative of a stastistical anomaly or a problem. |
Having said that: She's very smart, she knows a lot of math and she's willing to put the work into testing things.
When she says "They're using the standard C random number generator, which is sufficiently random although slightly streaky" I believe her. I believe her a lot more, in fact, than I believe you.
Have you ever had a game session where you hit 97% of the time, instead of 95%, for a whole hour?
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@Boltcutter in game.
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So far, I haven't seen this behavior to a greater extent than random chance predicts, although the last time I checked was about a year ago.|
Originally Posted by Stormfront_NA
What I have seen at times, is the game random number generator is much less than random, and seems to get easily stuck at certain number areas.
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While I accept that ramdoness is inherently "random", still statistical principles and trends tend to be consistent, so if I have a mathematical chance to miss 5 times out of 100, I should only miss 5 times in a one hundred roll sample. But when I miss 20 times out of 100, its indicative of a stastistical anomaly or a problem. I would like to point to the statistical principle of Standard Deviation, in which the alledged grouping will fall about 80% of the time, that means that 80 sets out of 100 sets of 100 rolls; will yield only 5 misses per 100 roll. Of course the other 20 sets of 100s could have actually less misses or more misses. At times, I do feel, I am operating at the 1 Sigma deviation; which I find acceptable. But at times, I do experience a swing beyond the 1 sigma, which is unacceptable, and can if held to it too long a game busting experience. If you feel, like the game rolls as off, simply record several sets of 100 rolls, and then study it. If in the first 100 rolls, and if you have a 95% chance to hit, you should miss 5% of the time, give or take 17% of the time to remain in the 1 sigma stastical variation; that would place you in a range from only missing 2 to 7 times per hundred rolls; a 2 sigma standard variation would yield no to 9 misses per hundred; a 3 sigma would yield a no to 11 misses per hundred; and so on. |
If I'm remembering my probability and statistics 101 correctly, this is the table for the statistical probability of observing N misses out of 100, if the odds of a miss are 1 in 20:
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miss percent 0 0.59% 1 3.12% 2 8.12% 3 13.96% 4 17.81% 5 18.00% 6 15.00% 7 10.60% 8 6.49% 9 3.49% 10 1.67% 11 0.72% 12 0.28% 13 0.10% 14 0.03% 15 0.01%
Now, if someone has a chat log of 20 combat rolls in a row rolling 0.95 or higher, even after simply throwing out the streakbreaker induced hits, that I would like to see. The odds of that happening are about 12 million to one against, which is possible (and in fact likely) across the entire playerbase, but would be comparable to winning the lottery.
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In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
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Have I mentioned that I find it exciting when you say stuff like that? Not sexually or anything weird, just... *shrug*
It's like a really big hit in football.
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Or you don't understand his rationale behind statistical anomalies and sigmas.|
Originally Posted by Sailboat
It looks like you don't understand what "random" means.
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"The One"
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Originally Posted by Infernus_Hades
The way you play changes your IO slotting..
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Please fix your quote, Arcana. I didn't say what you have in your first quote box.
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
So far, I haven't seen this behavior to a greater extent than random chance predicts, although the last time I checked was about a year ago.
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Originally Posted by Back Alley Brawler
Did you just use "casual gamer" and "purpled-out warshade" in the same sentence?
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Fixed. I dunno why it did that. The forums seem to do odd things to my posts at times. Sorry for the incorrect reference.
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Originally Posted by ArcticFahx
Please fix your quote, Arcana. I didn't say what you have in your first quote box.
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In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
The streakbreaker does not force misses. You can end up with the forced hit being on something like OG, where you don't do damage, but the streakbreak does not break hit streaks, and never has.