Ping's Weekly Niche: She Drives Me Crazy

She drives me crazy,
Like no one else.
She drives me crazy,
And I can't help myself.

Oh, those Fine Young Cannibals. Little did they ever know that they would be in a financial planning post.

Before I go much further, I'm getting tired of typing out long names when abbreviations work, so if you can't figure out any of the abbreviations, ask and I shall explain.

So first, to review, I sent you all after BotZs again. So, how's it turned out?

Allow me to manipulate double XP weekend to make myself look like a genius.

BotZ KB Redux Crafted
Last 5 expected price then: 60M
Last 5 expected price now: 100M

I'm a friggin' genius!

BotZ Travel/Range Crafted
Last 5 expected price then: 8M
Last 5 expected price now: 10M

I'm a friggin' genius!

BotZ Travel/Range/End Crafted
Last 5 expected price then: 10M
Last 5 expected price now: 25M

I'm a friggin'...you get the point.

Anyway, due to double XP, everything went up massively. Enough tooting my horn (hey...heeeeeey...don't go there), on we go to this week's niche, and this one, I guarantee, will piss some marketeers off if you come down on it hard.

So, what niche is it that drives marketeers crazy? What niche contains pieces that will make profits for marketeers of all salaries?

In a word, it's Touch of Death.

Okay, that's three words, but you get the idea.

But Ping! How do I know which ones make the money in that set?!?!?

You like how I include your expected feedback there? Yeah, I knew you would. Anyway, the simple answer is....drumroll...every single piece of Touch of Death makes money.

First, we'll start off small.

ToD: A/D Level 40
Last 5 Crafted
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
6,000,000

Now, no obvious standouts as buy points or lowballs. That means a)no one is successfully lowballing this item at the moment and b)we don't know where any lowball prices are. There are only 3 bidding and 14 for sale, so we're obviously not alone in this niche, but the small amount of outstanding bids tells us that we could probably risk a lowball bid. Before determining how low we should place that bid, let's go check out the recipe prices.

Last 5 Recipes
333,333
3,000,000
300,005
1,000,000
1,000,000

Now, this is interesting. First, it appears the lowball marketeer bid is the middle one. The most recent winning bid appears to be someone just slightly outbidding the marketeer. Marketeers rarely use a solid string of numbers, so it's probably someone else, but not guaranteed.

So, what should we do?

Well, I would put in a bid for 2 recipes at a sig number just above 333,333. That would get me some pieces to work with, but the small number would make sure I don't get stuck if the crafteds crash. I would also put in a lowball on the crafteds at just over 1M. While we don't know the lowballs that currently reside there, we can tell that with crafting cost and salvage cost, it'll cost us about 1M to craft a recipe, so I want my lowball to be about the same. This piece has no rare salvage, so its crafting cost is kind of low. Only a profit of about 3.5M per sale, but for the beginner, that's nothing to sneeze at. Enjoy.

ToD: Chance for NE Dmg Level 40
Last 5 Crafted
11,000,000
11,000,000
11,000,000
11,000,000
11,000,000

Again, no lowball showing.

Last 5 Recipes
2,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,500,000
2,000,666

The last one's the lowball, though the 2.5M seems to be hanging around at the moment. Either way, with the inclusion of 2 rare salvage pieces in the crafting, you can expect to make about 4M in profit per sale.

ToD: D/R Level 40
Last 5 Crafted
10,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
12,000,000

Again, no lowball showing.

Last 5 Recipes
300,000
1,000,000
300,000
288,888
500,000

Now, the lowball is probably the 288,888, and the 300K is probly someone just trying to grab a couple for profit and move on. I bolded 4 of the 5 because, simply put, you're gonna make money with any of them. A rare salvage in the craft means investment would be about 2M, so expect a profit of about 7M per sale. If I was going to lowball the crafted, I wouldn't go above 2.5M.

Okay, time for some big dogs. These are ones that are favorites of marketeers, and if you've got the cash to enter the game, you'll be swimming with some real moneymakers.

ToD: D/E Level 40
Last 5 Crafted
30,000,000
8,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
30,000,000

Ooh, ooh, we found a lowball. What a lowball it is, huh? So, now we know this person made a TON off this lowball, but the key is to figure out time vs. earnings. How long was it probably sitting there? A while, but it was worth it. I'd definitely sit one out around 10M and see if I can't pick up a lowball for myself over the next week. It's a free 15M inf if I do.

Last 5 Recipes
11,111,111
11,554,433
13,000,001
11,554,433
11,554,433

Remember when I said marketeers don't use all the same number? Well, there's a first time for everything. Notice that someone else's pricepoint was consistently beating the all 1s, but it appears they ran out of cash. However, they'll be back soon, I'm sure. I'd try to work a pricepoint just above theirs. If you make it work, it's about 13M profit per sale.

ToD: D/E/R Level 40
Last 5 Crafted
38,000,000
38,000,000
35,000,000
35,000,000
35,000,000

No lowball, but big numbers guarantee some are present. Currently 8 bidding and 7 for sale, so there's healthy competition.

Last 5 Recipes
15,000,000
15,655,555
15,500,000
15,500,000
15,255,555

So, here, we see a marketeer moving their price point. Their original point was the 255, but someone showed up and bought a couple at 15.5M even. Thus, the marketeer moved their pricepoint to the 655. However, it looks like they ran out of funds, so someone picked one up a little cheaper. I'd play with the expectation that the marketeer doesn't have a pricepoint out there right now. However, I'd keep an eye out for if that changes. Expected profit of about 19M per sale.

ToD: A/D/E Level 40
Last 5 Crafted
60,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
50,000,000
50,000,000

Again, no lowball, and when prices are this high, I definitely will want to leave a lowball in. Let's check the recipes.

Last 5 Recipes
21,111,111
21,111,111
21,111,111
30,000,000
20,111,111

This is real deal. The profit looks to be in the range of 30M per sale, and there's definitely competition present. I'd use this information to set my lowball at approximately 24M on the crafteds, and here, it's time to swim with the sharks. These marketeers will respond to any pressure on their pricepoints, so be up to speed with yours. For the amount it's worth, it's also worth the trouble.

Now, hopefully you haven't TL;DRed the rest of this post because it contains some important information. Namely, would I title the thread about being driven crazy if I didn't mean it?

Touch of Death is an extremely sensitive niche. Not that many people play with the set, even though mroe should, so changes in pricing are noticeable and can result in massive crashes from time to time. Have no fear because, if you're smart and use the information I've provided here, you can make a lot of money on ToDs. Just keep that tidbit in the back of your brain though. If you buy 5 or 6 and think you can guarantee selling them, it may take you weeks to unload them without taking a loss of some kind. Be gentle. It's the only way to make this niche really work.

Red side ToD D/R is one I been keeping the supply on for a while after DXP weekend has made the recipe an close on the proffets I did sell out on my stock of 20 by noon saturday. When I started the recipe sold for about 250k and salvage was about 1mil-1.25mil and sold for 4.5mil .. now its selling for 9-10 mil.

I am on the small scall one and sold over 250 of them in the last 6 months with keeping the stock on the BM around 12 or less with the others working the market.

Ping just gave all the market rookies the blueprint to get influence or infamy whenever you want and pretty much how much you want.

You can follow these same principles with various other recipes and walk away from the market with billions and the ability to slot any of your characters with whatever enhancements you want.


~MR

Apparently, things do continue in my absence.

But, seriously, what's the trade channel?

And, if it's actually put to use with customers and sellers, how do I get in it?