What are the chances?


Arrowyn

 

Posted

So over the last few days I've had four purples drop. One Apocalypse Rech/Acc and three Ragnarok Rech/Acc. Two of the Rags dropped in one day. Of course I happily sold them, but what are the chances that all four would be Rech/Acc? Does this particular type of recipe have a higher chance of dropping? And where all the Hecatombs be at?


"If I were two-faced, would I be wearing this one?"
- Abraham Lincoln

 

Posted

i think you just were on a run of them, dont think any of them have different chances to drop


 

Posted

I have gotten dropped 2 respec recipes in the last week. One in an ITF and then other on a 5 man normal mission team. Different characters got them and even on different servers but they are going for as much as purples right now which is insane.

Oh and i have never gotten dropped one of these before now.


 

Posted

[ QUOTE ]
So over the last few days I've had four purples drop. One Apocalypse Rech/Acc and three Ragnarok Rech/Acc. Two of the Rags dropped in one day. Of course I happily sold them, but what are the chances that all four would be Rech/Acc? Does this particular type of recipe have a higher chance of dropping? And where all the Hecatombs be at?

[/ QUOTE ]

After the event like this, 1.0 (probability) or 100% percentile chance.

There is nothing posted here or on the wiki about a weighting of the purple pools, so Im inlcied to believe ther is not a significant wieghting.

So for your 4 drops, the answer is random numbers are random.



@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617

 

Posted

Streaks are a characteristic of randomness. When most people try to come up with random digits, they usually come up with a sequence that is much less random than they think, and one of the reasons is that they eliminate the streaks. “Well, I just wrote a 2, so I shouldn't write another one.” Why not? There's a one in ten chance that the next digit is a 2, same as the chance for any other number.

What would be surprising is if, with all the purples that drop, there WEREN'T occasionally seemingly unusual streaks in the drops.


"That's because Werner can't do maths." - BunnyAnomaly
"Four hours in, and I was no longer making mistakes, no longer detoggling. I was a machine." - Werner
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