Sin_Stalker

Originally Posted by je_saist

So. Let me get this straight. You play a game called City of Heroes... where the default costume is a bright spandex jumpsuit. You run, jump, fly, or teleport around one city beating the excrement out of make-believe baddies, rescuing hostage victims, recovering stolen items, and saving the world; or run, jump, fly, teleport, or swim around a set of islands beating the excrement out of do-gooders, knocking over banks and jewelry stores, taking victims hostage, and trying to take over the world...

and you want to type lolRP?

Um. I don't know how to break this to you, but every time you log into the game and you pick a server, YOU HAVE ALREADY BEGUN A ROLE PLAY SESSION. Let me make this as clear as I can. EVERY SINGLE SERVER IS A ROLEPLAYING SERVER:

WHETHER OR NOT YOU LIKE IT YOU ARE A ROLEPLAYER

So please. Knock off the whole lolRP line. If that's how you feel, this is the wrong game for you.

Originally Posted by Pagan Priest

Has there been any news about what the next one might be? It seems to me it would be Mutation themed. So far, we've had: Cyborg (Technology-Booster #1), Magic (Magic-Booster #2), Superscience (Science-Booster #3), and Martial Arts (Natural-Booster #4)... that just leaves one origin type left (Mutation).

Assuming the next Pack IS Mutant-themed, what would you like to see?

Originally Posted by Fleeting Whisper

I the current situation can't really be resolved by piling more people on top of it (unless you want to start a competing periodical from scratch). However, I believe once resolved, the Scoop will be short staffed, so there'll probably be a recruiting drive.

Originally Posted by Shadow Wail

when are they going to make another Temp Power a Vet Reward?

Originally Posted by Arcanaville

Visually to a degree, but that's somewhat illusory. For example, in adjusted dollar terms (using the method I use, which is exchange rate at reporting date, not averaged exchange rate during the period, although there are similar discorrelations with the alternate method) there is a sizable drop in revenue in Q2 '06 with no corresponding drop in access numbers. Then, while there is a correlation between the drop in access in Q4 '06 and revenue, revenue bounces back in Q1 '07 but access doesn't start bouncing back until Q2 '07. Revenue drops much faster than access from Q3 '07 to Q1 '08. There is some correlation, but there are significant offsets in some quarters and in others there is correlation in direction but disproportionate changes overall.

*If* we believe the numbers are at least fairly representative, then the answer to the question some people have asked: is it possible we bounced back after the drop in subscriptions (really, access) in Q3 '08, is yes, we did: to practically Q2 '08 numbers. We've since dropped back down to nearly the same levels as Q3 '08.

Could the increase in revenue in Q4 '08 - Q2 '09 be due to booster packs? Well, its a total increase for the three quarters of over two million dollars in revenue. If we assume $10 per microtransaction on average, and we assume we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 subscribers plus or minus, then that means on average every single player bought at least two booster packs in those three quarters. I suppose that's possible, but it seems unlikely to me (From October 2008 to June 2009 I think only the Magic pack was released).


In any case, this is my version of the revenue vs access numbers (click for larger version):

Originally Posted by TonyV

I keep seeing posts about how CoH is hemorrhaging subscribers. I keep seeing replies about how no, it's not. Posts about how the city is dead. Posts about how no, people are in instanced missions. So it got me to thinking about how we can tell how CoH is really doing, something objective to look at and judge.

As most of you know, NCsoft stopped publishing subscriber numbers a while back. But they do still publish their sales in their quarterly earnings statements. Really, these numbers are a lot more important than subscriber numbers. After all, a game can be wildly successful with a low subscriber base, or wildly unprofitable with a high one. Ultimately, "Is this making us money?" is probably the best judge of whether a company will continue to invest in a game.

SO... With no further ado, here is your chart. Yes, it's small and hard to read. Click on it to see the full-sized version.



Note that I've put labels across the top indicating when each issue release has it, as well as a few of the competitors (WoW: Burning Crusade, WoW: Wrath of the Lich King, and Champions Online).

Here's my assessment, for your consideration.

Are there fewer people playing City of Heroes?

Yes, there are indeed. Not a huge number, though. If you roughly equate sales with subscribers, the game is off average by around 10% right now.

Is the game hemorrhaging subscribers?

No, not by a long shot. There was a lull around the end of 2007 during which sales were actually lower than they are today. Then over the course of the next year, the game consistently posted sales numbers well above average.

Did Champions Online make a dent in City of Heroes?

Um... Maybe. It's hard to tell, because there hasn't really been enough time to say for sure. It had only been out for a month when NCsoft's most recent numbers were posted.

Like I said, the game's numbers are off by around 10%, which I'd consider statistically significant. However, it's impossible to say yet how many of those people are just trying out something novel and will return. After all, look at the HUGE spike in Q4 2005, which City of Villains are released, followed by the more-or-less return to normalcy.

At any rate, even if it did make a dent, I really wouldn't consider 10% much of one, at least not yet. Had CO been a raving success, it could have potentially split the market in two and CoH could have taken around a 50% hit, or even worse. As it is, appearances are that people did indeed go over to check it out. What will be interesting is how many end up staying.

What about Going Rogue?

Let me get out my crystal ball... Yes, it's getting clearer now... Oh wait, it's gone again.

Seriously, as you can see from the chart, CoV give the game a HUGE spike in sales. That one is an outlier, because as I'm sure someone will point out, sales != subscribers, and as I recall, CoH didn't quite double in subscribers when CoV was released (although it did get a bump that lasted over a year).

If the same holds true for Going Rogue, the suits at NCsoft are going to be very happy when Going Rogue hits the streets. That quarter's numbers will go through the roof. Within an issue after the hoopla settles down, things will return to status quo.

Okay fanboi, so what's disappointing about the game?

If I were a suit at NCsoft, I'd be a bit irritated that the Super Booster packs aren't bringing in any significant sales. I mean, they did okaaaay, but after the first one, total sales actually dropped quarter-by-quarter, even with one per quarter being pushed out the door.

Now, one could read this as, "But maybe the Super Booster packs were what kept sales a bit above average. Without those, the game would have tanked!" Enh, maybe. I just don't think so, but it's a valid (if cynical) take on the data. Ditto character slots, server transfers, and all the other mini-transactions in the game now.

"That's bogus, I totally disagree!"

Hey, that's your prerogative. You can look at the data just as I can and draw your own conclusions.

So in conclusion as Tony sees it...

City of Heroes is indeed having an off quarter, probably two once we see the numbers for Q4 2009. Champions Online probably made a dent, but CoH withstood it pretty well. Other competitors (e.g. the 800-pound MMO gorilla) have virtually no affect on CoH.

The game is NOT dying, not by any stretch of the imagination. (Sorry, "DOOOOM!" sayers.) There's good precedent for the numbers coming from even lower than they are now back to having strong sales. The fact that we have a major expansion and client update in the works is very encouraging.

Or as my Magic 8-Ball says: "Ask again later..." *shake* "Outlook good."

Originally Posted by Obsidius

They could put out a call for more help in that case. Any volunteers?

Originally Posted by Ironblade

Just to be clear, this is a 'complaining' thread, right?

Originally Posted by DumpleBerry

This^.


Huh?

Originally Posted by Ignicity

too long?

Originally Posted by Techbot Alpha

Yeah, original link to PDF is abominable.
Comics were good though. I should get off my lazy can and do something like that

Originally Posted by Deebs

nothing to see here im just taking a quick sketch dump, but while im doing the crosswords I guess i'll post some recent sketches and use this as my personal kingdom to dump sketches .

My Earth/Sonic/Earth controller level 50 Virtue (and she always has her earth armor on as freakish mutants are sooo cool )



im in the process of getting back into the swing of drawing after having not a whole lot of free time , luckily freetime is suddenly freeing up


http://scarfgirl.deviantart.com/

Originally Posted by KaliMagdalene

Because they defined lethal damage as slashing and piercing, such as bullets, knives, and axes. Smashing damage is caused by blunt objects. They want to maintain this thematic separation. There is no rabbit hole here. This is not illogical.

Originally Posted by KaliMagdalene

No, it's completely logical. They don't want baseball bats doing lethal damage or swords doing smashing damage. This is coming down to you wanting them to do things differently, and trying to assign a faux-objective label to what amounts to nothing more than a difference of opinion.

Originally Posted by KaliMagdalene

This game has several arbitrary boundaries, and it's not unique in having those.

It is logical, however, to say that you won't put crushing weapon skins in lethal sets and vice versa. It's not illogical for them to decide not to do something that you want them to do.