Coulomb2

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according to that info, you'd be better off running unyielding when solo rather than invincible for the best rate of rare salvage and recipe drops, right?

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Exactly.

Technically, Tenacious actually gives you the highest number of drops per level (because you have to defeat more mobs per level).

To be honest, though, the drop rates are high enough that just casually playing the game on invincible, my brute was completly IO'd out (including nearly all of the sets and set bonuses that I wanted) just by playing from level 40 to 50: whatever I didn't get through drops, I was able to get through the market. Of course, I wasn't hell bent on filling myself up with the rarest of the rare IOs...

Actually the math even works out on a team, provided you remember the drop in question will go to a random team mate. In other words, the team as a whole still needs to defeat that many mobs to get the listed chance of a drop, but there are two factors that create the problem you are describing:

1. A given drop goes to a random member of the team. The more people on your team, the less likely you will get that particular mob's drop... BUT:
2. There are more mobs per encounter, so there are more chances for a drop per encounter. In *theory* this should balance out. For example, in a particular solo mission there might be, say 30 mobs total that will, on average, drop 2-3 salvage pieces. Do the same mission with an eight person team, and you have (in theory) the *equivalent* of 240 mobs total that will, on average, drop 19-20 salvage (i.e. the mission overall drops eight times the salvage). In practice it doesn't work that way, though.

The thread you pointed to is interesting, but I don't see in it the actual reason for the problem:

The drop percentages *don't* scale with the "mob value" of higher ranked mobs. Here's what I mean.

According to Statesman, a long time ago, a lt. is "worth" 2 minions (and is "worth" 2/3 of a player for encounter balance). However, if you were to defeat two minions, you would have a cumulative 15.36% chance for a salvage drop. BUT a lt. only has a 10.64% chance for a salvage drop.

Bosses are "worth" 4.5 minions (which stems from the statement that a boss is "worth" 1.5 players). But beating 4.5 minions (if such a thing were possible) would give a cumulative 31.28% chance for a salvage drop. Problem is, bosses only have a 25% chance for a drop.

Because "large team" spawns are very rich in lt's and bosses (which replace the "salvage drop friendly" minions), the number of drops per team member per encounter gets progressively worse the fewer people you have on the team.

The easiest way to solve the problem would be to chance the drops rates for higher ranked mobs to scale with their "value" in minons:

Lt's: 15.36%
Boss/EB: 31.28%

That'd really go a long way to solving the problem, IMO. Probably won't happen though.

P.S. Oddly, recipies do basically scale correctly for lt's (or pretty close):

Lt. "should" be 5.26% and it's actually 5.33%, so large teams replacing minions with lt's in spawns actually has a very slight benefit.

Bosses on the other hand "should" be 11.45% instead of 7.999%; that is more than enough to "swamp" the benefit given by large teams "converting" minions into lt's in spawns.

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i've been hoping someone would run the numbers some. thank you.



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You're quite welcome! I was curious to know these just for my own sanity's sake, and I figured at least some other people in the community might be interested as well.

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Actually, Scientist, you cannot just multiply out 150,000 x 0.01 to figure out how many people won't recieve a drop at the 99% chance mark.

Since whether you get a recipe drop is independent of me getting a recipe drop, it is possible that everyone won't get one...or on the otherhand possible that everyone will.

You have to remember that "99% of people will find a drop by point X" and "A single person has a 99% chance of finding a drop by point X" are entirely different statements.

It doesn't really make a tremendous difference when the number 99% is being used, since it is so close to 100%, but its the same sort of logic that gets people in trouble when they think "Yes! I have +20% defense! I'll last 20% longer in combat!"

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Exactly! Couldn't have said it better myself. In fact, depending on which "drop type" you're talking about, it's likely that a very large fraction of the player base will have at least one unlucky streak (where they actually get up to or over the number needed for a 99% chance for a drop) sometime in any one of their character's careers: going 60 arrests without a single salvage drop at least once over a "career" that involves over 30,000 arrests is a *very* high probability.

Actually, if I understand correctly, you're going to have a nice list of uncommon and rare recipies from Pool B, and practically none of the salvage needed to make them. I've definately "noticed" that the invention system is *extremely* unfriendly just running through a mission to get a quick complete. I'd imagine stalkers interested in participating in the system are going to have to fight their way through missions "ambush style" (how I actually play one anyway, so it's not a big change for me) OR they'll need to make very heavy use of the black market.

With the advent of Issue 9, something that is bound to come up are "reports" of "bugs" and "borked drop rates" because "I've played through five scanner missions, defeated over 100 minions and not gotten a single recipie / rare salvage drop / whatever." But that means that it is useful to have some idea about how many of each type of enemy you probably need to beat before you're likely to get a particular drop. For example, you have to defeat 242 minions before you have an even chance of getting a rare salvage drop, so if you've only beaten 100 minions or so, you shouldn't be worried that you haven't gotten a rare salvage yet.

What this guide is:
In this guide I calculate how many minions, lt's, bosses, and AVs you need to defeat before you have a 50%, 90%, and 99% chance of getting a particular type of drop. By "particular type of drop" I mean things like: *any* salvage drop, an uncommon salvage drop, a rare recipie, etc.

Where this guide came from:

After learning the drop rates for Pool A recipes and salvage, I became interested to know theoretically just how many minions would you have to defeat before you had an even chance of getting a particular type of drop? I wanted to know things like "should I be getting upset if I've beaten 10 minions and not gotten a salvage drop?" (turns out the answer is no) or "I've done ten scanner missions, probably taken out about 250 bad guys or so, and still not gotten a rare salvage - *should* I have by now?" (again, the answer is no). That led to me wanting to calculate how many minions you’d have to defeat before you had a very high (90%) chance of getting a particular type of drop. And then, finally, I decided I wanted to know how many you had to defeat before you were virtually guaranteed (99%) a particular type of drop. That led me to then wonder just how much “stuff” you were likely to have collected by a particular level (and, related to that, how much “stuff” you would likely have even if you were perpetually unlucky). And before I knew it, this guide was born. Of course, I’ve been carefully comparing the calculations, and the conclusions I drew from this analysis, to what’s actually happened in game as I’ve tested Issue 9 with both my level 50 and a new “test” character I’ve been bringing up from level 1.

First, for reference, here are the percentages (stated earlier by Positron):

Salvage:

Minion 8%
LT 10.64%
Boss/EB 25%
AV 43.22%

Common 78.57%
Uncommon 17.86%
Rare 3.57%


Recipes:

Minion 2.666667%
LT 5.333333%
Boss/EB 7.999999%
AV 100%

Common 78.05%
Uncommon 19.51%
Rare 2.44%

Below is my calculations for “how many of this rank of villain do you need to defeat to reach a percentage chance of a particular type of drop?” All calculations were done to 6-7 significant figures, although I rounded most final numbers to one decimal place. Here’s what the entries in the table mean.

Salvage refers to salvage drops. Recipes refer to recipe drops. (Duh)
M, L, B, AV is minion, lieutenant, boss (or elite boss), and archvillain.
50% (Uncommon/Rare): The number you have to defeat before you’ve got a 50% chance of getting a particular kind of drop. That’s even odds, so if you get a drop of a particular type before defeating the number of mobs listed, consider yourself lucky. By the way, the straight percentages is for any drop of the indicated type (salvage or recipe); Uncommon is specifically for an uncommon drop of the indicated type, and rare is specifically for a rare drop of the indicated type.

90% (Uncommon/Rare): The number you need to defeat before you’ve got a 90% chance of getting a particular kind of drop. In other words, by the time you’ve defeated this many foes, it’s very likely you’ll have gotten at least one drop of this type – not guaranteed, but very likely.

99% (Uncommon/Rare): The number you need for the 99% chance; to me that’s virtually guaranteed. In other words, even if you’re getting exceptionally unlucky, you should at least have one drop of the indicated type by the time you’ve defeated the number of foes in this entry.

How many do you need to kill?
<font class="small">Code:[/color]<hr /><pre> Salvage: Recipies:
M L B AV M L B
50% 8.3 6.2 2.4 1.2 25.6 12.6 8.3
90% 27.6 20.5 8.0 4.1 85.2 42.0 27.6
99% 55.2 40.9 16.0 8.1 170.4 84.0 55.2
.
50% Uncm 48.2 36.1 15.2 8.6 132.9 66.3 44.1
90% Uncm 160.0 120.0 50.4 28.7 441.4 220.1 146.4
99% Uncm 320.0 240.0 100.8 57.3 882.8 440.3 292.7
.
50% Rare 242.4 182.2 77.4 44.6 1065 523.3 354.7
90% Rare 805.1 605.1 257.0 148.1 3539 1769 1178
99% Rare 1610 1210 514.0 296.1 7075 3537 2357</pre><hr />

Interesting Conclusions based on the drop rates:
*There’s about a 50-50 chance you’ll get an uncommon salvage while you’re level 4.

*You’re practically guaranteed to get at least one salvage item before hitting level 5.

*You should have received at least one uncommon salvage piece by the time you hit level 7.

*If you get a rare salvage item before level 8, you were lucky.

*It’s pretty likely you’ll get at least one rare salvage item by level 10, and practically guaranteed you’ll get one by level 13.

(Keep in mind the ‘factoids’ below represent minimums! That means that even if you are getting very unlucky you should still have at least this much by the time you reach the indicated level. MOST characters will actually have MORE than TWICE the amounts of salvage and recipes listed! In fact, on my test characters, I usually have about 2-3 times the minimums listed here.)

*By the time you are level 10, you should have a minimum of:
About 16 salvage drops total.
About 3 uncommon salvage.

*By the time you are midway through level 12, you should have a minimum of:
About 28 salvage drops total.
About 5 common salvage.
About 1 rare salvage.
About 4 recipe drops, one of which is uncommon.

*By the time you reach level 22, you should have a minimum of:
About 100 salvage drops total.
About 17 uncommon salvage drops.
About 3 rare salvage drops.
About 27 recipe drops, about 5 of which will be uncommon. Note that it’s likely you’ll have gotten a rare by now too, but not yet at the 99% chance it would have happened by now stage.

*By the time you reach level 50, over the course of your career you should have gotten a minimum of*: (*I’ve used what I believe to be a rather conservative estimate of 60,000 minions or minion equivalents defeated over your hero career AND remember, you'll probably actually have between 2 and 3 times this much stuff.)
1,090 salvage drops total.
About 188 uncommon salvage drops.
About 37 rare salvage drops.
353 recipe drops total.
About 68 uncommon recipe drops total.
About 8 rare recipe drops total.

By the way, are you wondering how to calculate the "typical" amount of stuff you'll have (rather than the minimums?) - that's actually pretty easy. Just multiply the numbers you've beaten by the drop rate fraction (the percentage drop rate expressed as a decimal):

For example, for salvage:
Overall minion drop rate: 0.08
Drop rate for uncommons: 0.08 x 0.1786 = 0.014288
Drop rate for rares: 0.08 x 0.0357 = 0.001143

Let's say you've sat down with your level 40, done a couple of door missions, and earned about a bubble and a half while defeating about 330 minions. *On average* you'll probably get:

26 salvage total, 5 of which will be uncommon, and 0.38 rares (meaning you're not very likely to have gotten a rare salvage drop during your play session).

My Conclusions (These are just personal opinions)

*Defeating minions is probably the most efficient way to get salvage. Minions and lt.’s are both pretty efficient ways to get recipes (lt.’s drop recipes about twice as often as minions). Oddly, lt.’s may be efficient for recipes, but not for salvage. Upping mission difficulty actually works against you: more XP per minion means fewer drops per level. If you really want to “max out” the invention system’s returns as you level your character up, stick to Heroic or Tenacious (or the villain equivalents).

*As stated, the above list are really a minimums; I would estimate that most level 50 characters will have acquired a total of 136 to 204 uncommon recipes over their career, and 16 to 24 rare recipes. The limiting factor will probably be rare salvage – in testing I’ve noticed a large fraction of the uncommon and rare recipes require one item of rare salvage: you’ll probably have 152 to 228 recipe drops total, but only enough rare salvage to make around 74 to 111 of them – not a big deal when you consider that’s enough rare recipes to fill every slot the typical level 50 has.

*You’ll probably get about half of the total drops while you are in the 40 to 50 range, so characters who are getting a “late start” can still acquire quite a bit of stuff through just normal game play; so don’t feel like you’re getting hosed just because your favorite character just hit level 38 right before the issue went live.

*The drop rates really do seem very consistent with the dev’s “just PLAY the dang game, don’t farm” philosophy. If you choose to experience the system by actually playing like you normally would, and taking salvage and recipe drops as neat bonuses, you’ll probably end up with a level 50 with a very decent amount of cool stuff (and have a good time, even if you’re starting the process with an already high level character). But the drop rates are not very friendly to flat-out farming (for example, if you want to dust off your 50 and deck him or her out with IOs) – who wants to farm 800+ minions (that’s probably something like 30 to 40 scanner missions) for that one rare drop you need to make one of your rare recipes that’ll give your already uber character relatively minor bonuses? Yeah, I know – lots of you probably *do* want to do that. I thought I did too, got pretty tired of it after a week, and decided I’d rather those 800 minions give me a few levels, slots and powers in addition to that rare drop. When seen from the standpoint of “you have to grind your 50 through 30 to 40 scanner missions to get enough salvage to make 1 cool, rare IO” it doesn’t seem all that much fun. When seen from the standpoint of “in going from 40 to 41 doing missions and story arcs I’m gonna collect enough salvage to build about 4 or 5 cool, rare IOs to slot into my powers in addition to the fun of leveling a character up” the invention system really does seem like a cool addition to the game.

*My own testing experience is in line with these conclusions – farming with my level 50 is just frustrating and dull, except in small doses: a mission or two can be fun and I probably will ultimately play him more on live once I9 has come out, but the return on the time investment just isn’t really there. The real fun is still in the characters that are not yet level 50, where the gains for the same investment in time are actually higher than they were in issue 8.

*Like any random system, salvage and recipie drop has a surprising (to most people) tendency to be 'streaky.' You're almost certainly *not* ever going to see situations where you're getting a new salvage piece about every 12th minion, almost like clockwork. You're going get two in a single fight with three minions, another one in the next fight, and then go through a "drought" of 40 minions before you get another one. You're going to have some missions where you only get one salvage drop over the whole mission, and others where you get 20. Remember, in a random system "streaky" doesn't mean broken - it's actually very normal.

I enjoyed reading it too! I think you've got good ideas for how to put together a tank that solos a lot (my inv tank is level 49, but is exclusively a team tank, so I've got a very different build). Two suggestions, if you'd like a bit of constructive criticism:

* You claim that RPD provides "almost as much" S/L resistance as tough; I must respectfully disagree: mathematically tough provides exactly twice the resistance of RPD. Of course, this may just be a difference of opinion on the meaning of the phrase "almost as much."

* Based on all of the data that I've read in a multitude of guides, I believe invincibility provides a +3% to-hit boost per target in melee, and the defense is technically 5%, +1.5% per minion in melee range (but the 5% doesn't kick in unless there's at least one thing in range, and that one thing does add its 1.5%, so one thing in range gives you a total defense of 6.5%).

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490 / 990 = .4949... or about 49% debt.

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Good point: but what if you were taken down to 2% several times over the course of the fight? It seems that ALL the NPC damage you take is 'remembered' for the purposes of assigning proportional debt. For a low HP class like a Dom, it would be possible to have a record of three or four times your total HP in NPC damage. Bang, a player kills you, the debt is way off the scale.

Yay. I just discovered a new reason why Doms suck in PvP.

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To answer your question, you don't get "debt off the scale." You'd actually get debt that asymptotically approaches 100%. Let me demonstrate with an "extreme" example.

Let's pretend for a moment the 60 second rule wasn't there (so that I can make my example even more extreme than in real life). You, with your 500 hp, fight 5,144 Hellions in a row. In each fight, each Hellion takes you to 10 hp (490 hp of NPC damage). After each fight, you heal back up to full before taking on the next Hellion. Finally some Stalker notices your horrific killing spree, and takes you out (500 hp of PC damage). Here's the math:

490 hp of NPC damage multiplied by 5,144 Hellions = 2,520,560 hp of NPC damage.

You've taken 500 hp of PC damage, so *total* damage is NPC damage + PC damage = 2,521,060.

Plug into formula (i.e. NPC damage / Total damage) and you get:

2,520,560 / 2,521,060 = 0.9999999 ... (pretty much rounds to 1). That would be 100% debt; i.e. normal debt. Not "debt off the scale."

Again. Not saying I like the change - I think it could have been better. But I feel the need to play devil's advocate here and point out that the dooooooom is not quite as dooooooomy as getting the math problem wrong might lead you to believe...

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Further testing on my end indicates that there's a "timer" of some kind on the debt. Seems to be 60 seconds or 2 minutes. After that, no debt.

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That's just staggeringly bad.

In under 60 seconds: Fight a mob. Get whittled down to 2% health. Defeat the mob. Heal yourself back up to 99% health. Get one-shotted by a stalker. Get 98% of the FULL DEBT for an OUTDOOR DEFEAT.

By what demented standard is this acceptable?

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Wouldn't it be 49% debt?

Let's say you had 500 hit points. NPC wounds you to 10 hit point (490 NPC damage). You heal, or are healed back up to 495 hit points in less than 60 seconds (or whatever the cutoff is). Stalker AS's you for 500 hit points (500 PC damage). So you've taken a total of 490 NPC and 500 PC damage within the deadline before defeat. So the proportion would be (NPC damage) / (Total Damage) or

490 / 990 = .4949... or about 49% debt.

Granted, I don't agree this change is completely fair. IMO it would be "fairer" to "flag" damage from individual sources and remove damage from a defeated source from your count:

Example (you still have 500 hp): You fight two Hellions. Each injures you for 200 hp of damage. You defeat one but not the other. You pop greens and get back up to 500 hp. Stalker AS's you. Your "damage tracker" looks like this:

200 NPC damage from Hellion A (doesn't count, Hellion was defeated)
200 NPC damage from Hellion B (counts, Hellion wasn't defeated)
500 PC damage

Total NPC damage (that counts): 200
Total damage: 700.

Debt: 200 / 700 = .286 or ~29%. (The damage from the defeated Hellion doesn't count)

That'd be more fair and balanced, but that's just my opinion. But seems like it'd be a lot more complex to code.

That said, I'd rather there be no debt at all in PVP zones, just like many others. The mere possibility of debt is the main reason I don't enter those zones except once in a blue moon. Sure there's the possibility of debt in other zones, but PVP zones are roamed by toons that are not only willing to do things to give me debt, but are a LOT more likely to actually pull it off than the threats in another zone.

I fought the EB version of him with my level 50 blaster a few days ago. He was level 50. I started out by popping 3 purps. He never missed. Then 4. Not a miss. Then 8. Again, no misses. I'd actually hover on in, hit him with a powerful alpha strike, fight as long as my greens lasted (since the purples made zero difference) and run out of the map to buy more inspies and try again. After the failed attempt with 8 purples, it dawned on me that if I just bought and used 8 oranges, that'd give me a +40% resist bonus, stacked to the ~30% resist from the electric shield in my ancillary pool. Worked like a charm ... I basically had a minute where his shots could only do about 30% damage (and 120 point hits are far easier to take than 360 point hits), and that turned the tide. Frankly, I just figured the developers wanted to demonstrate to us that some EBs/AVs just respond better to oranges than purples, and so they gave Chimera (and several other EBs) a massive, massive accuracy boost to drive the point home.