Nice guide. I happen to like your analysis of the dev philosophy - very cogent.
One side thought, and only since I've been playing a Stalker lately - since a common means of levlling up a Stalker is to run multiple, fast and non-cleared paper missions (going after the boss and his guards, etc.), and then using the mission completion bonus for levelling experience, as opposed to exp-from-mobs, Stalkers may see less salvage. Though of course, this is balanced by there being some chance of salvage/recipe reward for mission completion....
It is critical that you pay attention at this time.
Gaming in Limited Times
Guide to Plant/Ice Doms
Actually, if I understand correctly, you're going to have a nice list of uncommon and rare recipies from Pool B, and practically none of the salvage needed to make them. I've definately "noticed" that the invention system is *extremely* unfriendly just running through a mission to get a quick complete. I'd imagine stalkers interested in participating in the system are going to have to fight their way through missions "ambush style" (how I actually play one anyway, so it's not a big change for me) OR they'll need to make very heavy use of the black market.
M.A. Arcs
Intended for high level play: The Primus Trilogy (Arc #s 10931, 283821, 283825), "Freakshow U" (Arc #189073), Purification (Arc #352381, Dev's Choice!
)Intended for low level play: "Learning the Ropes" (Arc #100304), "Cracking Skulls" (Arc #115935), "The Lazarus Project" (Arc #124906)
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99% (Uncommon/Rare): The number you need for the 99% chance; to me thats virtually guaranteed. In other words, even if youre getting exceptionally unlucky, you should at least have one drop of the indicated type by the time youve defeated the number of foes in this entry.
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Just something to keep in mind. If there are 150,000 people playing this game (not sure of the subscription numbers, but its somewhere around there I think?), that means 1500 of them will fail to have a drop of type X during the time shown. If 1% (wild guess here) of the game population read and post to the forums, 15 people can legitimately post and say they've not gotten the number of drops they "should".
On the bright side, it starts getting *really* unlikely that they will fail to have roughly the right drops in *all* of the categories. Only 15 people in the whole game (1% of 1%) will fall this short in even two categories. They might just as well have a surplus of some things. And there is the CH system to balance out these inequities to some extent.
Actually, Scientist, you cannot just multiply out 150,000 x 0.01 to figure out how many people won't recieve a drop at the 99% chance mark.
Since whether you get a recipe drop is independent of me getting a recipe drop, it is possible that everyone won't get one...or on the otherhand possible that everyone will.
You have to remember that "99% of people will find a drop by point X" and "A single person has a 99% chance of finding a drop by point X" are entirely different statements.
It doesn't really make a tremendous difference when the number 99% is being used, since it is so close to 100%, but its the same sort of logic that gets people in trouble when they think "Yes! I have +20% defense! I'll last 20% longer in combat!"
i've been hoping someone would run the numbers some. thank you.
Kittens give Morbo gas.
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Actually, Scientist, you cannot just multiply out 150,000 x 0.01 to figure out how many people won't recieve a drop at the 99% chance mark.
Since whether you get a recipe drop is independent of me getting a recipe drop, it is possible that everyone won't get one...or on the otherhand possible that everyone will.
You have to remember that "99% of people will find a drop by point X" and "A single person has a 99% chance of finding a drop by point X" are entirely different statements.
It doesn't really make a tremendous difference when the number 99% is being used, since it is so close to 100%, but its the same sort of logic that gets people in trouble when they think "Yes! I have +20% defense! I'll last 20% longer in combat!"
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Exactly! Couldn't have said it better myself. In fact, depending on which "drop type" you're talking about, it's likely that a very large fraction of the player base will have at least one unlucky streak (where they actually get up to or over the number needed for a 99% chance for a drop) sometime in any one of their character's careers: going 60 arrests without a single salvage drop at least once over a "career" that involves over 30,000 arrests is a *very* high probability.
M.A. Arcs
Intended for high level play: The Primus Trilogy (Arc #s 10931, 283821, 283825), "Freakshow U" (Arc #189073), Purification (Arc #352381, Dev's Choice!
)Intended for low level play: "Learning the Ropes" (Arc #100304), "Cracking Skulls" (Arc #115935), "The Lazarus Project" (Arc #124906)
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i've been hoping someone would run the numbers some. thank you.
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You're quite welcome! I was curious to know these just for my own sanity's sake, and I figured at least some other people in the community might be interested as well.
M.A. Arcs
Intended for high level play: The Primus Trilogy (Arc #s 10931, 283821, 283825), "Freakshow U" (Arc #189073), Purification (Arc #352381, Dev's Choice!
)Intended for low level play: "Learning the Ropes" (Arc #100304), "Cracking Skulls" (Arc #115935), "The Lazarus Project" (Arc #124906)
Thanks for doing the math. I am concerned, however, about a huge missing factor: team size. See this thread for more:
Drop Rate vs. Team Size thread
Essentially, drops are not scaling properly for team size (like XP does). You are presently penalized for teaming because of this. Your calculations are fine for soloing, but are way off for anyone who teams.
Actually the math even works out on a team, provided you remember the drop in question will go to a random team mate. In other words, the team as a whole still needs to defeat that many mobs to get the listed chance of a drop, but there are two factors that create the problem you are describing:
1. A given drop goes to a random member of the team. The more people on your team, the less likely you will get that particular mob's drop... BUT:
2. There are more mobs per encounter, so there are more chances for a drop per encounter. In *theory* this should balance out. For example, in a particular solo mission there might be, say 30 mobs total that will, on average, drop 2-3 salvage pieces. Do the same mission with an eight person team, and you have (in theory) the *equivalent* of 240 mobs total that will, on average, drop 19-20 salvage (i.e. the mission overall drops eight times the salvage). In practice it doesn't work that way, though.
The thread you pointed to is interesting, but I don't see in it the actual reason for the problem:
The drop percentages *don't* scale with the "mob value" of higher ranked mobs. Here's what I mean.
According to Statesman, a long time ago, a lt. is "worth" 2 minions (and is "worth" 2/3 of a player for encounter balance). However, if you were to defeat two minions, you would have a cumulative 15.36% chance for a salvage drop. BUT a lt. only has a 10.64% chance for a salvage drop.
Bosses are "worth" 4.5 minions (which stems from the statement that a boss is "worth" 1.5 players). But beating 4.5 minions (if such a thing were possible) would give a cumulative 31.28% chance for a salvage drop. Problem is, bosses only have a 25% chance for a drop.
Because "large team" spawns are very rich in lt's and bosses (which replace the "salvage drop friendly" minions), the number of drops per team member per encounter gets progressively worse the fewer people you have on the team.
The easiest way to solve the problem would be to chance the drops rates for higher ranked mobs to scale with their "value" in minons:
Lt's: 15.36%
Boss/EB: 31.28%
That'd really go a long way to solving the problem, IMO. Probably won't happen though.
P.S. Oddly, recipies do basically scale correctly for lt's (or pretty close):
Lt. "should" be 5.26% and it's actually 5.33%, so large teams replacing minions with lt's in spawns actually has a very slight benefit.
Bosses on the other hand "should" be 11.45% instead of 7.999%; that is more than enough to "swamp" the benefit given by large teams "converting" minions into lt's in spawns.
M.A. Arcs
Intended for high level play: The Primus Trilogy (Arc #s 10931, 283821, 283825), "Freakshow U" (Arc #189073), Purification (Arc #352381, Dev's Choice!
)Intended for low level play: "Learning the Ropes" (Arc #100304), "Cracking Skulls" (Arc #115935), "The Lazarus Project" (Arc #124906)
according to that info, you'd be better off running unyielding when solo rather than invincible for the best rate of rare salvage and recipe drops, right?
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according to that info, you'd be better off running unyielding when solo rather than invincible for the best rate of rare salvage and recipe drops, right?
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Exactly.
Technically, Tenacious actually gives you the highest number of drops per level (because you have to defeat more mobs per level).
To be honest, though, the drop rates are high enough that just casually playing the game on invincible, my brute was completly IO'd out (including nearly all of the sets and set bonuses that I wanted) just by playing from level 40 to 50: whatever I didn't get through drops, I was able to get through the market. Of course, I wasn't hell bent on filling myself up with the rarest of the rare IOs...
M.A. Arcs
Intended for high level play: The Primus Trilogy (Arc #s 10931, 283821, 283825), "Freakshow U" (Arc #189073), Purification (Arc #352381, Dev's Choice!
)Intended for low level play: "Learning the Ropes" (Arc #100304), "Cracking Skulls" (Arc #115935), "The Lazarus Project" (Arc #124906)
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according to that info, you'd be better off running unyielding when solo rather than invincible for the best rate of rare salvage and recipe drops, right?
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Technically, Tenacious actually gives you the highest number of drops per level (because you have to defeat more mobs per level).
To be honest, though, the drop rates are high enough that just casually playing the game on invincible, my brute was completly IO'd out (including nearly all of the sets and set bonuses that I wanted) just by playing from level 40 to 50: whatever I didn't get through drops, I was able to get through the market. Of course, I wasn't hell bent on filling myself up with the rarest of the rare IOs...
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Which is a good thing
With the advent of Issue 9, something that is bound to come up are "reports" of "bugs" and "borked drop rates" because "I've played through five scanner missions, defeated over 100 minions and not gotten a single recipie / rare salvage drop / whatever." But that means that it is useful to have some idea about how many of each type of enemy you probably need to beat before you're likely to get a particular drop. For example, you have to defeat 242 minions before you have an even chance of getting a rare salvage drop, so if you've only beaten 100 minions or so, you shouldn't be worried that you haven't gotten a rare salvage yet.
What this guide is:
In this guide I calculate how many minions, lt's, bosses, and AVs you need to defeat before you have a 50%, 90%, and 99% chance of getting a particular type of drop. By "particular type of drop" I mean things like: *any* salvage drop, an uncommon salvage drop, a rare recipie, etc.
Where this guide came from:
After learning the drop rates for Pool A recipes and salvage, I became interested to know theoretically just how many minions would you have to defeat before you had an even chance of getting a particular type of drop? I wanted to know things like "should I be getting upset if I've beaten 10 minions and not gotten a salvage drop?" (turns out the answer is no) or "I've done ten scanner missions, probably taken out about 250 bad guys or so, and still not gotten a rare salvage - *should* I have by now?" (again, the answer is no). That led to me wanting to calculate how many minions youd have to defeat before you had a very high (90%) chance of getting a particular type of drop. And then, finally, I decided I wanted to know how many you had to defeat before you were virtually guaranteed (99%) a particular type of drop. That led me to then wonder just how much stuff you were likely to have collected by a particular level (and, related to that, how much stuff you would likely have even if you were perpetually unlucky). And before I knew it, this guide was born. Of course, Ive been carefully comparing the calculations, and the conclusions I drew from this analysis, to whats actually happened in game as Ive tested Issue 9 with both my level 50 and a new test character Ive been bringing up from level 1.
First, for reference, here are the percentages (stated earlier by Positron):
Salvage:
Minion 8%
LT 10.64%
Boss/EB 25%
AV 43.22%
Common 78.57%
Uncommon 17.86%
Rare 3.57%
Recipes:
Minion 2.666667%
LT 5.333333%
Boss/EB 7.999999%
AV 100%
Common 78.05%
Uncommon 19.51%
Rare 2.44%
Below is my calculations for how many of this rank of villain do you need to defeat to reach a percentage chance of a particular type of drop? All calculations were done to 6-7 significant figures, although I rounded most final numbers to one decimal place. Heres what the entries in the table mean.
Salvage refers to salvage drops. Recipes refer to recipe drops. (Duh)
M, L, B, AV is minion, lieutenant, boss (or elite boss), and archvillain.
50% (Uncommon/Rare): The number you have to defeat before youve got a 50% chance of getting a particular kind of drop. Thats even odds, so if you get a drop of a particular type before defeating the number of mobs listed, consider yourself lucky. By the way, the straight percentages is for any drop of the indicated type (salvage or recipe); Uncommon is specifically for an uncommon drop of the indicated type, and rare is specifically for a rare drop of the indicated type.
90% (Uncommon/Rare): The number you need to defeat before youve got a 90% chance of getting a particular kind of drop. In other words, by the time youve defeated this many foes, its very likely youll have gotten at least one drop of this type not guaranteed, but very likely.
99% (Uncommon/Rare): The number you need for the 99% chance; to me thats virtually guaranteed. In other words, even if youre getting exceptionally unlucky, you should at least have one drop of the indicated type by the time youve defeated the number of foes in this entry.
How many do you need to kill?
<font class="small">Code:[/color]<hr /><pre> Salvage: Recipies:
M L B AV M L B
50% 8.3 6.2 2.4 1.2 25.6 12.6 8.3
90% 27.6 20.5 8.0 4.1 85.2 42.0 27.6
99% 55.2 40.9 16.0 8.1 170.4 84.0 55.2
.
50% Uncm 48.2 36.1 15.2 8.6 132.9 66.3 44.1
90% Uncm 160.0 120.0 50.4 28.7 441.4 220.1 146.4
99% Uncm 320.0 240.0 100.8 57.3 882.8 440.3 292.7
.
50% Rare 242.4 182.2 77.4 44.6 1065 523.3 354.7
90% Rare 805.1 605.1 257.0 148.1 3539 1769 1178
99% Rare 1610 1210 514.0 296.1 7075 3537 2357</pre><hr />
Interesting Conclusions based on the drop rates:
*Theres about a 50-50 chance youll get an uncommon salvage while youre level 4.
*Youre practically guaranteed to get at least one salvage item before hitting level 5.
*You should have received at least one uncommon salvage piece by the time you hit level 7.
*If you get a rare salvage item before level 8, you were lucky.
*Its pretty likely youll get at least one rare salvage item by level 10, and practically guaranteed youll get one by level 13.
(Keep in mind the factoids below represent minimums! That means that even if you are getting very unlucky you should still have at least this much by the time you reach the indicated level. MOST characters will actually have MORE than TWICE the amounts of salvage and recipes listed! In fact, on my test characters, I usually have about 2-3 times the minimums listed here.)
*By the time you are level 10, you should have a minimum of:
About 16 salvage drops total.
About 3 uncommon salvage.
*By the time you are midway through level 12, you should have a minimum of:
About 28 salvage drops total.
About 5 common salvage.
About 1 rare salvage.
About 4 recipe drops, one of which is uncommon.
*By the time you reach level 22, you should have a minimum of:
About 100 salvage drops total.
About 17 uncommon salvage drops.
About 3 rare salvage drops.
About 27 recipe drops, about 5 of which will be uncommon. Note that its likely youll have gotten a rare by now too, but not yet at the 99% chance it would have happened by now stage.
*By the time you reach level 50, over the course of your career you should have gotten a minimum of*: (*Ive used what I believe to be a rather conservative estimate of 60,000 minions or minion equivalents defeated over your hero career AND remember, you'll probably actually have between 2 and 3 times this much stuff.)
1,090 salvage drops total.
About 188 uncommon salvage drops.
About 37 rare salvage drops.
353 recipe drops total.
About 68 uncommon recipe drops total.
About 8 rare recipe drops total.
By the way, are you wondering how to calculate the "typical" amount of stuff you'll have (rather than the minimums?) - that's actually pretty easy. Just multiply the numbers you've beaten by the drop rate fraction (the percentage drop rate expressed as a decimal):
For example, for salvage:
Overall minion drop rate: 0.08
Drop rate for uncommons: 0.08 x 0.1786 = 0.014288
Drop rate for rares: 0.08 x 0.0357 = 0.001143
Let's say you've sat down with your level 40, done a couple of door missions, and earned about a bubble and a half while defeating about 330 minions. *On average* you'll probably get:
26 salvage total, 5 of which will be uncommon, and 0.38 rares (meaning you're not very likely to have gotten a rare salvage drop during your play session).
My Conclusions (These are just personal opinions)
*Defeating minions is probably the most efficient way to get salvage. Minions and lt.s are both pretty efficient ways to get recipes (lt.s drop recipes about twice as often as minions). Oddly, lt.s may be efficient for recipes, but not for salvage. Upping mission difficulty actually works against you: more XP per minion means fewer drops per level. If you really want to max out the invention systems returns as you level your character up, stick to Heroic or Tenacious (or the villain equivalents).
*As stated, the above list are really a minimums; I would estimate that most level 50 characters will have acquired a total of 136 to 204 uncommon recipes over their career, and 16 to 24 rare recipes. The limiting factor will probably be rare salvage in testing Ive noticed a large fraction of the uncommon and rare recipes require one item of rare salvage: youll probably have 152 to 228 recipe drops total, but only enough rare salvage to make around 74 to 111 of them not a big deal when you consider thats enough rare recipes to fill every slot the typical level 50 has.
*Youll probably get about half of the total drops while you are in the 40 to 50 range, so characters who are getting a late start can still acquire quite a bit of stuff through just normal game play; so dont feel like youre getting hosed just because your favorite character just hit level 38 right before the issue went live.
*The drop rates really do seem very consistent with the devs just PLAY the dang game, dont farm philosophy. If you choose to experience the system by actually playing like you normally would, and taking salvage and recipe drops as neat bonuses, youll probably end up with a level 50 with a very decent amount of cool stuff (and have a good time, even if youre starting the process with an already high level character). But the drop rates are not very friendly to flat-out farming (for example, if you want to dust off your 50 and deck him or her out with IOs) who wants to farm 800+ minions (thats probably something like 30 to 40 scanner missions) for that one rare drop you need to make one of your rare recipes thatll give your already uber character relatively minor bonuses? Yeah, I know lots of you probably *do* want to do that. I thought I did too, got pretty tired of it after a week, and decided Id rather those 800 minions give me a few levels, slots and powers in addition to that rare drop. When seen from the standpoint of you have to grind your 50 through 30 to 40 scanner missions to get enough salvage to make 1 cool, rare IO it doesnt seem all that much fun. When seen from the standpoint of in going from 40 to 41 doing missions and story arcs Im gonna collect enough salvage to build about 4 or 5 cool, rare IOs to slot into my powers in addition to the fun of leveling a character up the invention system really does seem like a cool addition to the game.
*My own testing experience is in line with these conclusions farming with my level 50 is just frustrating and dull, except in small doses: a mission or two can be fun and I probably will ultimately play him more on live once I9 has come out, but the return on the time investment just isnt really there. The real fun is still in the characters that are not yet level 50, where the gains for the same investment in time are actually higher than they were in issue 8.
*Like any random system, salvage and recipie drop has a surprising (to most people) tendency to be 'streaky.' You're almost certainly *not* ever going to see situations where you're getting a new salvage piece about every 12th minion, almost like clockwork. You're going get two in a single fight with three minions, another one in the next fight, and then go through a "drought" of 40 minions before you get another one. You're going to have some missions where you only get one salvage drop over the whole mission, and others where you get 20. Remember, in a random system "streaky" doesn't mean broken - it's actually very normal.
M.A. Arcs
Intended for high level play: The Primus Trilogy (Arc #s 10931, 283821, 283825), "Freakshow U" (Arc #189073), Purification (Arc #352381, Dev's Choice!
Intended for low level play: "Learning the Ropes" (Arc #100304), "Cracking Skulls" (Arc #115935), "The Lazarus Project" (Arc #124906)