Archie Gremlin

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  1. Quote:
    Originally Posted by TopDoc View Post
    I tried dropstats, but got the following:

    $ perl /cygdrive/c/drop/dropstats.pl game/chatlog\ 09-20-2009.txt

    ----------------------------------
    Archie Gremlin's Drop Stats v0.3.0
    http://www.glasspaw.com/dropstats/
    ----------------------------------
    Illegal division by zero at /cygdrive/c/drop/dropstats.pl line 178.
    Nuts.

    I'll look into this today.

    P.S. Please PM me with DropStats bugs. I might not always see forum posts and I really want it to be bug free.
  2. Quote:
    Originally Posted by EarthWyrm View Post
    I'd been assuming that since bosses who've been downgraded to lieutenants have their inf-award set to lieutenant level, their drop status turned them into lieutenants as well (that is, downgraded bosses have a .053333% chance to drop a pool a recipe, just like any other lieutenant).
    You're quite correct. At least, I also assume that bosses that are converted into LTs drop as LTs. I haven't tested that in any way.

    I'll try to do something about this in the next version. I'm not sure what at the moment.
  3. If you're posting drop data here then you should probably know that we can't use your data unless you report certain things. We need the following to calculate your drop rate:-
    • how many minions you defeated
    • how many lieutenants you defeated
    • how many bosses/EBs you defeated
    • how many Pool A recipes you received (not Pool B or costume pieces)
    • how much salvage you received

    Please turn on chat logging. That creates a permanent record of your defeats and drops without you having to run a separate program such as HeroStats.

    If you use Drop Stats then you can report the "minion equivalents" figure instead of number of minions, LTs and bosses. In fact, you can just copy the table that appears at the top of the output.

    If you want to help isolate the bug then the following would be helpful:-
    • your difficulty settings including virtual team size
    • your archetype and level
    • the map(s) you used
    • the actual size of your team including padders
    • any other factors you found interesting

    Please avoid the temptation to post bad runs but not good ones. This skews the data horribly! The best way to do this is to decide that you're going to post, then play the game for a while, then post the results for the stuff you did after you decided to post.

    (P.S. If you're having trouble with DropStats then please PM me. I'll be happy to help.)
  4. I've just released a new version of DropStats. (Version 0.3)

    The big change is that this version always calculates drop rates. It no longer gives up when faced by unknowns or failed heuristic rank checks.

    It also displays the expected range of values for a run like this:-
    Code:
    Type   DropRate Drops Expected  Mobs
    --------------------------------------------------------
    Pool A    1.27%    2      2-10  158 minion equivalents
    Salvage   7.29%    10     6-18  137 minion equivalents
    --------------------------------------------------------
    Finally, the heuristic rank fails much less often. (Especially for Guardians!)

    Enjoy!
  5. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Boomie View Post
    I'll attempt to do some runs today both solo and dualboxed and see what I come up with. I've done plenty of runs recently but keep forgeting to turn on herostats.
    Can I suggest that you turn on chat logging? This keeps a permanent record of your defeats and drops that can be analysed at your leisure.

    You can read the log files in a text editor or analyse them with a tool like DropStats whenever you feel like it.

    This avoids the problem of having to remember to start HeroStats before you do a test run. The only problem is that you have to enable chat logging for each toon individually.
  6. Quote:
    Originally Posted by GibberingLunatic View Post
    By any chance did you mapserve right after you completed the arc? This seems to be a growing problem with alot of them.
    No. Everything was completely normal except for the lack of merits.
  7. I just completed an incredibly long arc in Ourob but didn't receive any reward merits. (I even checked the chat log for them.)

    The arc was Madeleine Casey's "To Save a Soul". My team mate didn't receive merits either. We started the arc before I16 was released.
  8. I did a series of runs on the Wall in Cimerora between the 20th and 28th August. The overall results were consistent with the Wiki drop rates.

    The runs produced 6,153 defeats including 648 Lts and 19 bosses.

    Live drop rates from the Wall
    167 Pool A recipes.
    Drop rate of 2.44% with 95% confidence interval of 2.09% to 2.84%.

    450 salvage.
    Drop rate of 7.89% with 95% confidence interval of 7.20% to 8.62%.

    It's very noticeable that the pattern of runs looks completely different to the ones we get in beta. For one thing, 9 out of 10 of the runs have averages that fall in the 95% confidence range for the published drop rate and 3 runs have averages above the mean.

    In contrast, only 3 out of 7 of the runs I did on beta are in the 95% confidence range for the old drop rate. Non of them had a drop rate above the expected value.
  9. I've released a new version of DropStats. (0.2.1) This is much better tested than the previous version (0.2) and fixes lots of minor bugs.
  10. I did some runs on the wall in Cim this morning. My results were 1230 defeats including 7 bosses and 128 lieutenants. This produced 28 Pool A recipes and 112 salvage. The drop rates are 2.04% and 8.80% respectively.

    The 95% confidence on this run is 1.36% to 2.94%. i.e. it's consistent with both the Wiki drop rate and the drop rates we've been seeing on test. It is better than my other runs in Cim though.
  11. I generally use TOs until about level 12 and then swap to common invention origins. I replace the common IOs every ten levels until I start buying sets. I find this much less hassle than messing around with dual and single origins.

    Once I reach level 30 I start buying sets. I always create a build in Mids Hero Designer. I find it invaluable for choosing sets.

    I never replace set IOs with the same IO at a higher level. The reason is that level 35 IOs tend to hit the ED soft cap. Upgrading them to 50's makes virtually no difference. It's worth replacing level 20 set IOs but I don't bother with them in the first place.

    I will occasionally replace a cheap set by a more expensive one when I'm rich enough. I might do this with 1 set in a build.

    This strategy can be surprisingly cheap. Most sets are not very expensive. They're even cheaper if you leave bids in for a day or two and bid on a range of levels. I get most of my IOs for between 50k and 300k and rarely pay more than 1 million. The only exceptions are the 4 or 5 high value uniques in each build but you can skip them.

    I you want to be really cheap just frankenslot. It's almost certainly cheaper than using SOs 'cos they never expire.
  12. Quote:
    Originally Posted by EarthWyrm View Post
    ... when I type the command syntax, it gives me an error that makes me think that Perl didn't end up in the path as it was supposed to, but may be there once I reboot the machine.
    Can you PM me the error message? I'm curious.
  13. Archie Gremlin

    Purple Drops

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Scarlet_Shocker View Post
    ... so what can I do to increase the rate of Purply Goodness landing on my head?
    As others have said, you need to defeat lots and lots of mobs. Anything that increases your kill rate will help.

    I did an ITF yesterday. My team of 8 defeated 1300 mobs in just over one hour. That means that my share was about 160 mobs. Adjusting for the fact that lieutenants and bosses drop more often than minions, I can expect to do about 20 ITFs per purple. (Lts drop twice as often as minions and bosses drop 3 times as often.)

    In contrast, if I take my Brute to the Wall in Cim, I can increase my chance of a drop by a factor of 4. Pukka farmers can probably double that.

    Good Luck!

    (P.S. I apologise in advance if this turns into a double post. My last attempt to post didn't seem to work. )
  14. Archie Gremlin

    Purple Drops

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
    On average, they appear to drop at something like once per five thousand mobs defeated.
    I've always wondered where that figure comes from. Do you know?

    I'm curious because the data Top Doc published had a drop rate of about 1/2000 minions. The good news is that this suggests a much higher drop rate than the generally accepted figure. The bad news is that it's still very rare.
  15. I had terrible problems with the forums until this morning. The game (Defiant) was fine though.
  16. Quote:
    Originally Posted by EarthWyrm View Post
    Thing to note: The spawn rules seem incredibly non-standard on this map.
    Your results stand out as being much worse than virtually all the others. I'm beginning to wonder if this map has a particularly bad drop rate.

    Would you care to try a different map on difficulty 1 team size 8? I suspect that you'll get a much better drop rate.
  17. I've just re-run the same paper mission at difficulty +1/8. The results are much the same.

    Total defeats 1,317 including 0 bosses and 265 lieutenants.
    Recipes 27, salvage 123.
    Drop rates recipes 1.71%, salvage 8.75%.

    Both of these runs have been pretty close to the average drop rate reported here.

    P.S. My last post includes the number of bosses and lts. The minions are the difference.
  18. I ran a Council paper mission a few times over the weekend on difficulty -1, team size 8 no bosses. I did a short CoT run first with bosses enabled which generated a huge proportion of bosses. That's why there's a few bosses in the results.

    The results were:-
    1,515 defeats including 11 bosses and 304 Lts.
    36 Pool A recipes, 140 salvage and 16 enhancements.

    This gives drop rates of 1.96% for recipes and 8.66% for salvage.

    This suggests that my theory that team size 8 gives extra low results is wrong. Hey ho.
  19. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lakanna View Post
    Archie: if you have time, could you incorporate Carnies into the parser?
    I've put up a new version of DropStats. I believe this includes all mobs that you can encounter at lvl 50. It also tracks merits, Vanguard merits and tickets now.
  20. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lakanna View Post
    Archie: if you have time, could you incorporate Carnies into the parser? I've done a few missions with them in it, and they're unknowns.

    If you update the .pl file, all old data can be run through it again, right? you don't have to scrap old runs when you update the parser?
    Ok. Carnies coming up. I'll add a few more high level groups while I'm at it.

    Yes. You can run old log files through the new version. DropStats doesn't modify your log files in any way. (Or affect what goes into them in the first place.)
  21. Quote:
    Originally Posted by SwellGuy View Post
    It should drive the price up, temporarily, which is going to induce whines of ebil marketeers ruining the markets.
    I think we've successfully demonstrated that it's anti-marketeers that ruin the market and profiteering flippers that keep the market wholesome and good.
  22. Quote:
    Originally Posted by cp2_4eva View Post
    My point is at this current moment in CoH time, prices are seriously high. When you have 600 available items and 500 people bidding on it and the last 5 buys for spell ink is 100,000 inf....something is wrong.
    What's wrong with it? Prices are higher than they used to be because people have changed their play style. So what? There's still stuff to buy and common salvage is cheap compared to the money you can make so it's not a problem. If you're a bit short of inf, you can always go into AE for an hour, turn your tickets into salvage and sell it for a million or so.

    Will there be something wrong when the see saw of supply and demand shifts again and prices drop? No.

    The game is not a museum where everything is static. It's dynamic. Each issue changes the way we play and that changes the market. The only way the market would be broken is if supply dried up completely.

    Curiously, you mentioned one way for the devs to do this. They could just let toons hold an infinite amount of salvage and recipes. A lot of toons would then have no incentive to sell anything. (Think of toons with finished builds and hoarders.) Supply would drop: possibly enough to run Wentworth's dry. Ouch.
  23. Archie Gremlin

    Tax

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Snakebit View Post
    What do you economists think the effect on market prices would be from a progressive, cash basis, value added tax on market transactions?
    This sounds like increasing the transaction fee for more expensive transactions. In this case, I'd expect it to have no effect. As you say, the market is driven by supply and demand; specifically drops and the desire for shinies.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Snakebit View Post
    Would they escalate to cover the loss of profit, or would they fall in response to the pressure?
    I don't believe that profit determines prices. In my experience, a trader can only profit when the buyers are prepared to pay a significant spread of prices. This allows the trader to buy low and sell high. Anyone who tries to drive the price up to achieve an arbitrary profit margin just gets left holding stock.
  24. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lakanna View Post
    Can anyone who build a log parser find a place to host it? I'd love to use it to continue to gather more testing date, but don't know enough to build one myself.
    I've tarted up my log parser and put it on the web. You can download it from http://www.glasspaw.com/dropstats/. There are full instructions on installing it and running it.

    It gives a pretty good summary of your drops including defeats, salvage and recipes. It splits defeats into bosses, lieutenants and minions which is handy if you're reporting to this thread.

    It works pretty well if you're a lvl 50 and you're soloing. It has trouble counting defeats otherwise. (But it does get the drops right.)

    It recognises the most important mobs but I haven't included all the mob groups yet so let me know if it has trouble with your favourites.

    Any feedback would be very welcome. Enjoy.