Yomo_Kimyata
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Posts
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Joined
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Quote:True dat. But for some items (let's say lvl 20-30 uncommon recipes/IOs) there is no incentive for sellers. I would list a lvl 22 Air Burst at 5,000 if I knew I could sell it there right away. But I usually vendor or delete it. If there is a bid for it, and I offer at 5,000 and make no sale, then I know the bidder is lowballing and most of the time I'm better off just deleting it. I eat my 250inf listing fee and delete it.Originally Posted by Rhysem
In order for supply to increase, those who participate in the market must list more. If I list more, then I get more inf, even were it at a lower price.
I would argue that in order for supply to increase, demand needs to be more verbal and to step up their game. If you want to buy something, stop complaining about the lack of supply and put in a real bid, not a token "boy, I'd like one of these someday, bid 10 @ 1 each" bid. And advertise it here. -
Quote:*Yanks all bids on single colored belts; places bids on reversible belts*Originally Posted by Reptlbrain
Or one reversible belt, greedhead!
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Quote:I don't think you shouldn't state your opinion; I think the reason why you feel that no one agrees with you is that you are (in my opinion) unnecessarily antagonistic.Originally Posted by eryq2
LOL. This is pointless. Im guessing im talking to 10 year olds.
1) To buy something to use is not greedy. To hoard, is. To buy up everything to mark it up for others, is. I may need to get a dictionary for the uneducated.
2) eva_, you didn't even make any sense at all. If i go to Champs for some shoes, buy them to wear, that's not greedy. Or maybe if i buy food to eat, im greedy because i want to live, too, hmmmm. ???
3) Uber, again, i didn't say everyone. You must feel VERY guilty for some reason, or just like taking up for them. When i say, UBER, you were wrong man. Then please reply.
4) Yomo, yes i have to deal with it to a point. That doesn't mean i have to like it. I also have the right to state my opinion. Just because it don't go in line with other opinions don't mean i can't talk about it. Maybe i should just post something like, " hey, look, i was able to flip this or buy 3 of these to make a profit". Man, id be so loved 'round here. lol. I don't fit a mold.
But since not of this has to do with the topic, it's just a flame fest, ill offer my idea again to help with the items. Increase the drop rates. Anyone have anything positive to add to help the supply? Thought not.
Oh, and last night i ran on a team of 8 for 2 demon farms. Got 2..... 2! Inv recipes. A temp stun grenade and a perplex confuse. Hundreds of baddies killed = 2 recipes. Sounds sucky to me still.... -
Quote:I'm not sure how anyone was "steered" into paying 150mm in that completely fabricated example. I would say that it all depends on what people's sense of value is. In that example, I would daresay there is one or more persons who feel that the item is cheap at that price, and that there were one or more persons who felt that the item needed to be sold.Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
What you refer to as a bidder of last resort I see as bidders who have been steered into paying the 150 + range. I see a marketeer working an item. Just based on that last 5 picture I'm not seeing the huge variability of random purchases. This seems somewhat under control at the time the marketeer was working it. Of course its a mini snap shot, but still says a lot.
You say the market is setting the price in that scenario ? With no outside influence ? No. I see 3 of the last 5 sales people were willing to offer that IO for under 50 million. However, a profiteer has stepped in to buy all the stuff that the players are willing to offer up cheaper. It actually provides a hint of what the prices on that item might be like IF no profiteer was working the item. That IO might regularly go for the 50 mill range ? Possible. Cant know for sure. We would not know unless the profiteer or (s) left the niche completely. However we do know that there are quite of few sales that would have occurred at a much lower price had someone not "bought up the low price stuff". This has forced players who did not get the lower priced items to be steered or forced to buy the much more expensive item.
I included this example as exactly the opposite to what you viewed it as. I meant it as an example of a buying opportunity. I would look at this and say, "Hmm, recently there have been a lot of sellers and few buyers. Someone thinks this is worth at least 51,111,111. If that person is wrong, then they are going to eat a lot more at that price."
Now, if I happened to feel that the item was worth less than that bid price, I would sell it there and help drive them into ruin. But let's say that this is something like a Miracle +Recovery, that I personally value somewhere around 150mm for whatever reason. Then I would probably try to buy it at a slightly higher price than the bidder of last resort and offer it at a higher price.
You CAN sometimes trick people into believing valuations that are temporarily "off". But you can never trick someone into hitting that buy or sell button. -
Quote:Well, since it is hard to say exactly what the quality of the bid is unless you act on it, I figured that "sometimes" was probably more self-effacing and accurate than "always".Originally Posted by Rylas
If it was easy, wouldn't you be more right than just "sometimes?"
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Quote:Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
D-XP weekend was very generous. I did spend a bit of time positioning things during the week though. The payoff was far more handsome than i expected.
So we've seen a bit of the denial stage...is this still denial or moving into the anger stage ? I know eventually there is acceptance but cant remember all the mess in between ... It does at least fit into the wild, far fetched, and as completely untrue as you can get though.
Tears is tears i quess.
I am SO gnashing my teeth right now! -
Quote:Agreed.Originally Posted by Miladys_Knight
When to stop? When you have as many market slots clogged as you have toons that you can afford to have market slots clogged on.
I only post my mid-level stuff as enhancements, and I don't think any are listed under 1mm, but I'd appreciate a few 10mm bids! -
Quote:You are exactly correct on all counts -- I realized I reversed it while I was walking to work this morning. See, if you could have bet against me, you would not have gone broke!Originally Posted by Kosmos
It's Mencken who attributed it to Barnum. And you've reversed it so that it means the opposite of what you intend. The actual quote is "You will never go broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
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Quote:Agreed, well stated GB!Originally Posted by Grouchybeast
There aren't many systems that can deliver that while at the same time providing a market minigame for people who want to play it, and I think it's pretty cool. -
Quote:Originally Posted by Djeannie
The whole system is unknowingly set up to choke supply in the mid range and every release the devs do compounds that.
- Incarnate content that can only be run by 50's.
- More Incarnate slots to fill coming in every issue from now on.
- People power-leveling up to get to the new L50 shinies
- Incarnate abilities not functioning when exemping down below L45
Point 1, 2 & 3 cause a derth in mid level recipes as no mid level toons are being run.
Point 4 causes a dearth because there's even less incentive to sk down, compared to sking someone up, as you lose your new shiny abilities and recipes aren't being generated at the lower sk level (assuming they generate like someone sk'ing up gets higher level recipe drops).
This is why they should do away with IO levels and just have them scale with your current combat level and just have all recipes/salvage drop at all levels.
All this tells me that sub-lvl 50 recipes/enhancements should cost more than lvl 50s. How I wish this were true! -
Quote:Somewhere there is a quote along the lines of "You will never go broke by underestimating the stupidity of others." I think it is a Barnum or Mencken attribution.Originally Posted by UberGuy
Given that history, I'm not that confident, because I know anyone with a brain and more patience than cash is going to figure they too can get a bargain, too, so my listing might sit around a good long time before other people stop undercutting it.
.
If not then you heard it here first! You will never go broke by underestimating the stupidity of others.
Edit: um, reverse that underestimating to overestimating and see Kosmos' post below! -
Quote:I've gone on record as saying that no one needs more than two belts (one black, one brown) but I've proven myself wrong before.Originally Posted by all_hell
So everyone with more than one pair of shoes is greedy? Perhaps it's a matter of definition.
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Or another example, rare IO recipe, lvl 35, highly coveted
126 bidding, 2 offered, last 5 trades:
51,111,111
51,111,111
150,000,000
175,000,000
51,111,111
In this case, I would see this as something I would rather buy than sell. 3 of the last 5 sales have been to a "bidder of last resort". People have been coming in and selling at sell it nao prices. If I think this is worth around 150mm or more, then I would throw in a 55mm bid or two and if I had one to sell, I'd post it around 150mm. If I think this is worth less than 51,111,111 then I would sell it to the high bidder. -
Quote:Why does this not surprise me?Originally Posted by eryq2
But i don't like having to deal with other people and if it's the only way we can get stuff, it sucks. IMO, of course.
If you really prefer to play a MMORPG or whatever the name is nowadays to a single player game, then you pretty much have to deal with other people.
'Cause I'm pretty sure that at least one of those M's stand for "multi-player". -
Quote:Not necessarily. If you want to sell, then it is always useful to judge the buying interest; if you want to buy then it is useful to judge the selling interest. I would never sell a Ribosome HO for 1 inf.Originally Posted by UberGuy
OK, now it makes more sense. You care about this because you want to flip. I don't. I either want to sell what I have, or buy one. .
But you can generally judge if a market is better bid or better offered. If you look at a common salvage, for instance and it has:
126 bid, 1255 offered, last 5 trades:
200,000
200,000
250,000
250,000
200,000
I'm willing to bet a lot that those last 5 trades were from someone lifting the offer (someone bid an amount that was at least as high as the amount someone was selling at). Round numbers and consistent round numbers. Good buying. I'd feel pretty confident in selling something here and getting over 150,000 inf for it. But I would not feel confident in buying it at 200,000.
Now if you feel that the item is worth 500,000, I would not think you have a good chance of selling it there, but you have an excellent chance of buying it there. -
Quote:Ok, here's an example that has provided a fair amount for me in the past.Originally Posted by UberGuy
It may not be fruitless in the sense that you can pull off figuring out who it is, but I'm not seeing the benefit of knowing the vast, vast majority of the time. I mean, sure, it might help sometimes, but to me it feels like the mini-game equivalent of bid creeping for uncommon L50 salvage.
Crafted lvl 30 rare IO. 13 offered, 10 bid, last 5:
17,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000
13,500,000
15,000,000
All trades in the last 2 days.
Looks like you can make an offer at something like 10mm and be the first in line to sell, yes? And it looks like you can probably buy this for 16mm or so.
Let's take the second part first. Bid 16mm, nothing. Bid 17mm, nothing. Bid 20mm, nothing. Ok, we now know that the lowest outstanding offer is >= 20mm.
Ok, now the first part. Sell one of these at 1 inf. Boom, that's a guaranteed sale!
Now the last 5 looks like:
5,555
17,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000
13,500,000
And now we know that the bid quality is poor. I now feel very confident in bidding on this for 1mm (or even 10,000) and for selling it around 15mm. Unless/until new orders come into the system, I will have both highest outstanding bid and lowest outstanding offer. -
Quote:To the end of getting a better price and/or faster execution for either your sale or your buy.Originally Posted by Nethergoat
To what end?
Even handwaving away its fundamental mystery, motivation is irrelevant.
Stuff is worth what it's worth, people will pay what they pay.
The ability of marketeers to convince others to pay too much for junk is one of the great forum myths of all time.
True, at any given point at time there is a highest bid and a lowest offer for a given item. Sometimes that highest bid is zero (no outstanding bids) and sometimes that lowest offer is infinity (no outstanding offers). If you want to buy or sell something right now, you have no choice but to take the prices that are already in the system. If that is the case you are 100% correct.
However, if you don't want to buy or sell something right now, then trying to establish what the highest outstanding bid is (and the depth behind it) and the lowest outstanding offer is (and the depth behind it) will get you better trade action. All the information the market interface gives you (number of bids/offers, last 5 sales) is often IRRELEVANT to the only things that matter to buying and selling. Which are the highest outstanding bid and the lowest outstanding offer.
I'm with you that you can't convince others to pay more than they want to. But it isn't that hard to convince people to pay prices that they think will get them faster execution. Painting the tape (either through lowball bids or through changing the last 5 trade prices) is one way to do so. -
Quote:Again, I disagree. I don't think that ascribing motivation to any particular bid is a fruitless exercise -- I find that it's pretty easy to determine "quality" bids v. "painting" bids. If you are looking at the marketplace as a large entity composed of millions of participants all of whom have their own motivations, you may be right. But most of the time, I find I am playing the mini-game against one or two other people. In such a case, I find it helpful to determine what they are up to. Sometimes I am even correct.Originally Posted by Nethergoat
i'm saying the motivations behind bids are unknowable and irrelevant.
Ascribing motivation to a bid is as pointless and silly as ascribing morality to market behavior.
On an aside, whenever someone tells me something is unknowable or ineffable, I'm gonna do my best to know it or to eff it. -
Quote:Originally Posted by Nethergoat
A bid is a bid is a bid. Sub-dividing between "serious" and "not serious" bids is as pointless as pretending there is such an animal as "artifical" demand.
demand is demand. bids are bids. the motivations of the players making them is unknowable and thus irrelevant.
Well, I guess if you feel that a bid for 10 inf is equivalent to a bid for 10mm inf (or even if 1mm bids for 10 inf each are equivalent to a single bid for 10mm) I should thank you, because you are really making my life easier! -
Quote:I don't agree, because you have no way of knowing what the bid is until you hit it. Additional bids give the illusion of price support on or about the last 5. Since you have no idea if a bid is for 10mm inf or for 1 inf, sellers will work off the information they have -- most of the time that inf is last 5 traded.Originally Posted by Nethergoat
as I've said many times, demand is demand is demand is demand.
There is no such thing as 'artificial' demand. A bid represents interest in an item- what motivates the bidder is unknowable and irrelevant.
I put artificial demand bids on things all the time -- it tends to keep future price action near past price action. My favorite is something like Impervious Skin triples. I have a few crafted, but there are no bids and the last 5 are in the 15mm range. Well, I am certainly not going to let someone lowball me! So I put in a few bids at something high enough to pick off the sell it nao crowd. And I make my sales. Now I cannot prove that my "false" bids make my sales more likely, but I will tell you I have bought a lot of crafted enhancements at around 1,000 inf and sold them at around 20,000,000.
So it's all good! -
Quote:You know, I guess it depends on how you think about it. I would say it's painting the tape because you are putting in a bunch of bids in order to simulate trading interest (again, I do this ALL THE TIME, so I think that I myself paint the tape) by pumping up the # bids figure.Originally Posted by seebs
I'm not sure how it's painting the tape if I paint the tape with a bunch of 123s and then the next bid in is someone bidding 500k. I mean, clearly, I'm not getting much influence on what they do.
FWIW, I don't do this to make money, I do it to get sales badges.
Then again, you could look at it as legitimate interest in buying at that level. Which indeed would be profitable when vendored, but not to the extent that you can sell to someone else who mistakenly feels that this is a high demand item and must be bot now!
Anyway, I don't see anything wrong with it. It IS creating a "false" sense of demand, but then again, anyone who has the mental capacity to turn this game on should be able to recognize that falsity. -
Quote:Originally Posted by all_hell
Yeah, if you're greedy you might buy something besides purples and then sell them to buy purples.
People in this game are constantly lusting after wealth and power. It's sad, sad sad, and immoral.
Libido dominandi indeed.
If only people would just be happy with SOs. Then the market would be fixed.
Instead they lust after power so strongly that they become convinced They need more and more and more power.
They want the Ultimate Power!
And to gain the Ultimate Power you must pay the Ultimate Price. Er...uh...I mean you should only have to pay Costco discount prices to gain the Ultimate Power. Even though there are thousands of people competing for Ultimate Power we shouldn't have to pay like we were competing for Ultimate Power against thousands of others. We should be able pay discount prices like we were buying toilet paper in bulk.
I think that may be the block that some have about the Market--they don't remember that it's a competition for goods.
To be honest, I didn't realize that you were not serious until after a few readings. My initial response was going to be something along the lines of "that word: ultimate. I do not think it means what you think it means." -
Quote:Hehehehe, you said economic. =)Originally Posted by Arcanaville
One of the tenants of economic theory is that economic participants aren't required to understand economic theory to act in accordance with economic theory. In any system where the participants act in accordance with what they believe economic theory instructs them to behave, ironically that system will not obey fundamental economic theory.
The markets actually look very much like I would expect, and economic theory would predict, thinly traded, fluctuating demand, unpinned valuation exchanges would behave. -
Quote:Don't get me wrong, I've been known myself to throw a few hundred or thousand bids on a salvage to make it look good. But it is still painting the tape to an extent.Originally Posted by seebs
Yeah, but even if I just list 130 of them with no remaining bids up, I still tend to get insane numbers.
Interestingly, Ruby is particularly prone to this, I think because it's a gem and people expect it to be more valuable.
That said, I've never found it profitable to mess around with common salvage, other than making markets (some would call this flipping) on alchemical silvers and luck charms and such. It is fun, and you get a rush and some good quick flow, but ultimately you make a lot more inf elsewhere, in my opinion. -
Quote:It is very easy to tell other people they are wrong if no one knows what you believe in. Note how he ducks the question. I think he just likes throwing rocks.Originally Posted by Camper
Ever since you started posting here, I've been trying to figure out what your position is, but since almost all of your posts are basically assertions that the prevailing wisdom in the market forum is wrong, or that individual posters are wrong, I've rarely heard you speak to what you actually believe.