after quitting the updater, and starting all over again, i finally got in on "connecting ...12"
CoH Helper and Hijack This logs please.
Also, have you done file verification lately?
Also, what are you using for AV/Firewall software?
Clicking on the linked image above will take you off the City of Heroes site. However, the guides will be linked back here.
I have this problem sometimes and I found a work around which works for me and my partner
1) open up about 5-10 CoH Launchers then click the "quit" button on all of em
2) open up 1 CoH Launcher and *poof* no more connecting #12
Hope this works for you too 
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Short Story I did: http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=228383
DevArt Page: http://tamedragon.deviantart.com/
Currently up to "Connecting...16"
Never had this problem before, checked to make sure the servers are up, there are no posts on the forums about this, at this particular time, so thought i'd make one.
Is there some problem with the updater servers being so crowded that even those with all the patches, can't log in?