Snow Globe

Over half the league in Arcanaville's case was random people joining my league at that point.

A player can be reasonably sure that this wouldn't happen. It wouldn't sell, and Paragon Studios knows it. I'm pretty sure that they'd not even price it at 800, as would be unlikely to sell.

I'm getting carpal tunnel just thinking about that.

Congratulations, and I'm well past it. I somehow doubt I'll have the ambition to match it on another character though.

I don't think Paragon Studios is evil, but yeah, the mechanism is nasty.

Too bad, I'm going to say it. I want them to make money. However I also want them to release the items as widely as possible by other means as well. That means that once a period of exclusivity has ended, the costumes become available through other means.

The issue isn't that black and white. People's opinions are like this image:



You can reduce the negative feelings even if you don't eliminate them. Some player's opinions could change from negative ("they don't care about my money") to a positive ("It is good that they have things that bring them money from limited time exclusives, then everyone can get those later.").

Negative opinions can be changed into positive opinions, just like the opposite can happen.

Again, not black and white here. You'll have some that will be extremely ticked off, while others will just shrug it off and be glad it is more widely available, and you'll have people between those two extremes.

I think my viewpoint is generally typical of one person: me.

I'm sure this would cut both ways:

• If a fixed price was too high, people will complain and be upset.
• If a fixed price was too low, people will complain and be upset.

The trick is to annoy the least amount of people possible.

There have been people that complain about badges being devalued (among other things), and yeah, the uproar dies quickly.

This has always been my overriding goal no matter what reward is in the game (costumes, badges, incarnate stuff, etc.).

Close enough:

They were also told that the new costumes would be available as an add-on pack for those that bought it before it was released (which it was). Everyone was also told that the add-on pack would cost the difference between the pre-purchase and the full retail pack. The trade-off was 1 month of game time vs 7 months of use for Dual Pistols and 6 months use for Demon Summoning.

I really don't have sympathy for those that didn't read the announcements before buying in that case.

Actually, no it doesn't. Instead of being told that the items will be available after the full release, we're being told "Our current position is that we're not going to release them separately. We might eventually decide differently, however we need to be convinced to do so."

Going Rogue items: Up front with potential customers saying that the customers will get advanced use of the power sets and would have the extras as the difference between pre-purchase and complete box by giving up the extra month from the retail box.

Super Pack Items: We may do it, but at this time we don't want to and have no plans to do so in the future.

Super Pack 2 by the numbers by Arcanaville. It is in the beta section.

I don't consider him saying that there are 600 point costume sets to be honest either. So his range is 1,000 to 1,440 for the set, leaning to the high end of that. That is 2.5-3.6 times a regular costume set (400 PP not on sale). Don't you think it is intellectually dishonest to call me out on my math when you don't do the same for a person that keeps claiming existing costume bundles are 1.5x more than they are?

I've at least made an attempt at explaining where I'm getting my values. I've also went back to clarify how I came to those numbers and to make it clear exactly how I was over-estimating individual parts.

Repeat after me: There are no costume bundles that are 600 points for the complete set... All costume bundles on the Paragon Market are priced at 400 points.

While I sympathize in this reasoning (and I fully agree the consumables are pretty much worthless), you can't really expect a costume set to be the same price as a stand-alone purchase.

Now if it were a bundle of the 11 piece costume set and the black wolf, I could see that being around 600-800 points.

Early adopters generally pay a higher price for owning something first.

This much, I agree with you.

I don't think anyone in this thread has said the costume parts and wolf should be available separately while the super pack they are in is available.

And yet they are retiring the packs from the Paragon Rewards Program either this month or next...

If you are talking about the Celestial Set, Zwillinger's post disagrees with you. The other limited time costume sets will be coming back, or so they have promised.

And that is what I'm saying, thank you. The individual cards may vary, but the all the common cards are 44.2% of a 80 point pack. It is called a ball-park figure. I was never trying to say X card was exactly Y value, though many seem to be taking them that way. I look at my posts you mention, and I see that I used the word "approximately" an awful lot in them.

Yes, I've said repeatedly now that I assigned the value of all the costume "cards" in a rarity tier one approximate value equal to the percentage of that rarity in the pack. I've repeatedly said so.

So I've assigned an approximate value of all the common cards in a pack to each of the common costume pieces. The actual cost per card is much lower, but nowhere near 1,440/11 that Adeon Hawkwood assigned to the set.

And like others, you are so focused on "here is what I think he said" vs what I did say. So who's more at fault here? Here is the sad fact that you (and others) are intentionally missing: By using the all the commons in a pack as a price value that I'm inflating the numbers by a factor of 3. This means that while I've inflated the price for the costume pieces, Adeon Hawkwood's value of 1,440 is at least 7 times more than the value I've assigned them above. So why aren't you bothering him?

Boring and time consuming in a fiddling little matter = impossible to convince me it is worth the effort to go to the trouble. I do try not to be that pedantic, despite what people may think.

And I've repeatedly have said I don't care to find out the individual value of cards. If you find that fun though, knock yourself out. For my illustration to Adeon Hawkwood, it was enough just to price out the rarity value and use that as a basis for determining an approximate (if inflated) value for the costume pieces.

And that is all I've meant in these posts. All other assumption's are other player's, not mine.

I agree, but for my point to Adeon Hawkwood, it was close enough for my purposes.

Actually I don't think that at all. In reality, Very Rare > Rares > Uncommons > Commons. Like I said though, it makes for decent shorthand.

I'm glad you have acknowledged the hidden disclaimer in all my posts: Every post I make is my opinion. I don't speak for others, I speak for myself.

To my perspective, the 5 cards are what I get for the purchase. If a type of card is 44.2% of those 5 cards, then to me that rarity is 44.2% of the cost. Same goes for the other rarities. At this point, I don't expect others to agree with me.

The developers could assign any value they want to the individual items, but in the end the breakdown of what a player gets for their 80 points is divided by what they get. Some items may be more or less valuable to the players than the developers.

Actually, that is your method, not mine or Arcanaville's. It is also clearly wrong because you are multiplying each number by itself.

I like how you multiplied the rarity by itself though.

2.21 = 44.2% of 5
1 = 20% of 5
1 = 20% of 5
0.79 = 15.8% of 5

And people accuse me of having bad math skills.

35+16+16+13 = 80.

44.2% of 80 (2.21/5) is 35.
20% of 80 (1/5) is 16.
20% of 80 (1/5) is 16.
15.8% of 80 (0.79/5) is 13.

It is an obvious draw, and the Studio knows it.

May I ask, directly: if you bought the Super Packs, would you be unhappy about the EO pieces being released as a bundle at some point?

Not at all. I feel the same way about the Collector's Edition bonuses: Others get to enjoy them later, the people on the bleeding edge get to use the items first.

Would you feel slighted or cheated in any way?

It was an added cost to use it sooner than everyone else.

Would you feel your expense - of whatever sort - was a waste?

In as much as I did not want the revives, restores, other consumables, yes. I made sure that I didn't spend real money to get them though. Even so, the packs represent a waste of potential.

As a corollary, would you be less enthusiastic about buying the next round of Super Packs if you knew the costume set would not remain exclusive to it forever?

Actually, while the next costume set (super pack 2) is ok, it isn't to my taste, especially bundled with the consumables. I liked a lot of the EO set, and would have bought the full set straight up.

The Costume Creator is the core feature of the game. They knew exactly what they did when they put the costumes in the pack. They were aiming the EO and Space Pirate stuff directly at players that bought costumes to get them to buy the super packs.

In aggregate, Arcana's numbers are saying 44.20% Common, 20.00% Uncommon, 20.00% Rare, 15.80% Very Rare. That is the average over a sample size of 600,000 packs. So each pack can be expected to have a distribution of 44.20%/20.00%/20.00%/15.80%. Not guaranteed, but close enough to a baseline. About the only thing I did wrong is to combine 2-3 commons, 0-2 uncommons, 0-2 rare, and 0-1 very rare.

Approximately 44.20% of a Super pack cost is returned in common cards.
Approximately 20.00% of a Super pack cost is returned in uncommon cards.
Approximately 20.00% of a Super pack cost is returned in rare cards.
Approximately 15.80% of a Super pack cost is returned in very rare cards.

Given that duplicate cards appear in multiple categories (ATOs are exactly duplicated in both rare and very rare for instance), it is almost impossible to place a value on an individual card in the way you suggest.

No, I take a predicted value of a pack (without discounts of any kind), and can say the combined common cards in a pack on average have X value, and the same principle can be applied to the other rarities. Is it perfect? No. Is it close enough, yes.

If I did as you suggest, the discounted value of each card would be far less than I stated.

Oh, you mean like in the store itself? I didn't see the need to be exact, as that value is mutable. That is why I kept using the word "approximately". You know what that word means, right?

That is an unneeded complication in this case. More to the point, if I did that, the relative value of the items would be far less numerically.

From paragonwiki, also from Arcanaville's notes:

Super Packs are guaranteed one Rare or Very Rare with each set of cards flipped. The other four cards will be a mixture of Common, Uncommon, and Rare, with there always being at least two Common cards. The following table lists the card set types and their (approximate) chance of being drawn, with data provided by Arcanaville in a post on the Issue 21 beta forums which has since been hidden from non-Paragon Studios access.

Code:

Chance	 Rarity Card Sets
00.5%	Common, Common, Common, Uncommon, Rare
04.0% 	Common, Common, Common, Uncommon, Very Rare
04.0% 	Common, Common, Common, Rare, Rare
04.0% 	Common, Common, Uncommon, Uncommon, Rare
12.5%	Common, Common, Common, Rare, Very Rare
12.5%	Common, Common, Uncommon, Uncommon, Very Rare
12.5%	Common, Common, Uncommon, Rare, Rare
50.0% 	Common, Common, Uncommon, Rare, Very Rare

Given that 2-3 card are common, the combined value of commons in an un-discounted super pack is approximately 35 PP (44.20% of 80 PP).

Given that 0-2 card are uncommon, the combined value of uncommons in an un-discounted super pack is approximately 16 PP (20.00% of 80 PP).

Given that 0-2 card are rare, the combined value of rares in an un-discounted super pack is approximately 16 PP (20.00% of 80 PP).

Given that 0-1 card are very rare, the combined value of very rares in an un-discounted super pack is approximately 13 PP (15.80% of 80 PP).

Not what I'm saying. What I am saying is that the combined value of the common cards in a pack are more than uncommons and rares in a pack, which in turn have a combined value that exceeds the very rares in a pack.

Precisely due to the fact that the contents of the packs are, as you say, inseparable is the reason I chose to present an approximate value rather than a literal value.

Complete Paragon Market listing (http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=271665), look at the bottom of the page and you'll see that Large Dual or Team Insps are 10-15 PP, so you're getting "overcharged" for the inspirations in the packs.

I would like to know how else you could assign the "discounted" value to the items in the packs. It is crystal clear that they are discounted compared with the store, as you can see the "full" prices of some of the items that are available outside of the packs, only it isn't the same value across the rarity layers (ie. all of the common "cards" aren't discounted the same).

To put it another way: Each card has a percentage value based on drop rate. That percentage is compared with the cost of the pack. The result is the value of that type of card when compared with the cost of a pack.

Okay, I've looked at Arcanaville's breakdown of the 600,000 packs (3 million cards) that was announced at the Player Summit:

That means the following breakdown:

• 44.20% Common (1,326,000/3 million)
• 20.00% Uncommon (600,000/3 million)
• 20.00% Rare (600,000/3 million)
• 15.80% Very Rare (474,000/3 million)

Total 3,000,000 cards

Now here is where it gets interesting:

• In a single pack (80 PP) commons have a value of approximately 35 PP (44.20% of 80 PP).
• In a single pack (80 PP) uncommons have a value of approximately 16 PP (20.00% of 80 PP).
• In a single pack (80 PP) rares have a value of approximately 16 PP (20.00% of 80 PP).
• In a single pack (80 PP) very rares have a value of approximately 13 PP (15.80% of 80 PP).

(Edit: The above numbers represent the collective, approximate value of all the cards in a give rarity. They are not representative of an individual card.)

Given the Elemental Order set contains:

• 2 commons
• 3 uncommons
• 3 rares
• 3 very rares

(Edit: This a would mean that the costumes are valued at less than 200 PP in the packs for the set.)

Now comparing that with the other costume sets on the market, they can charge 400 PP and it would be appropriate in my opinion.

Even if 1 more is pleased than displeased, then I would be right. That isn't "a hell of a lot more".

Okay, I agree that I don't know how many people will be ticked off if the costumes are released separately. On the other hand, more people are speaking against this developer choice in this thread (and other people I've talked to) than are not.

Not without something incredibly spectacular, and I mean well above the Retro Sci-Fi set in terms of quality or bundling a temp power into it. They have already said that they have set targets for pricing and that they won't change those targets unless they have a strong reason to do so. For an 11 piece set, they don't.

I've been very, very careful of making any quantitative claims in this thread. I've been especially wary of claiming a majority of anything. The largest claim I made in this thread is that "a lot of goodwill is going to be lost". Guess what? A lot of my goodwill towards this company has been lost over this choice. On the other hand, you have claimed more customers are happy with this choice than are ticked off:
So who, exactly is making wildly unsubstantiated claims here? It sure doesn't seem to be me.

Is the Elemental Order costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Super Booster I: Cyborg costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Super Booster II: Magic costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Super Booster III: Superscience costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Super Booster IV: Martial Arts costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Super Booster V: Mutant costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Justice/Sinister costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Wedding Pack costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Mac Special Edition's costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Going Rogue Complete Collection's costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Origins Pack costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Animal Pack costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Steampunk Pack costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Barbarian costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Circle of Thorns costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No
Is the Carnival of Light costume items premium costume pieces? Yes or No

The answer to all the above is "yes", by the way.

Wow, a red herring fallacy. This is completely irrelevant in an attempt to divert attention from the issue. Nice try.

All those alternate methods come with a cost. Even with no extra cost to the player, some players do not value the consumables. It really isn't that difficult a concept to understand, is it?

Yup, I would have bought points to buy the set day 1. Now, I'd be willing to buy the last piece of the set that I'm missing.

Oh please... The arguments I've been making in this thread:

• People would like to buy the costume set outside of the packs.
• It will cost Paragon Studios less than a day's work to put the items in the market.
• There are no further development costs associated with putting the Elemental Order costume set onto the market (besides making market entries).
• Paragon Studios is going to generate ill-will by locking costume pieces away when the phase out super pack 1.

I'm sure you are trying to be witty, but you haven't really got any thing to say to this.

Paragon Studios' business team have already found their price points for most of the categories of items on the market, including sale prices. Costume sets are 400 points, power sets are 800 points, etc.

Name one 600 point costume set. Doesn't exist. As to the Tier 9 VIP area, we've been told that they do NOT equate to 400 points.

Reference:
So that argument is out as well.

As for the lesser value, a person that is getting the costume set alone is not getting the extra stuff in the packs, and shouldn't be charged for the extra stuff. I have to ask you what makes you think that players that object to the extra stuff should have to buy the extra stuff? With your reasoning, they actually get less, because with the current set up they might (I stress might) eventually use the junk.

They paid the premium to have use of the costume earlier (long established precedent in this game) and get the consumables in the packs. Eventual discounts happen, just like every other sale in this game and for that matter in the real world of trade. What you are suggesting is nothing less than to penalize people for not wanting the chaff in the super packs.

I'd agree, but from the sounds of things, practically impossible.

Neither did people that bought:

• Super Booster I: Cyborg
• Super Booster II: Magic
• Super Booster III: Superscience
• Super Booster IV: Martial Arts
• Super Booster V: Mutant
• Good Versus Evil Edition's in-game bonuses were available as an item pack.
• The Wedding Pack, also called the Valentine Pack.
• Mac Special Edition's in-game bonuses were available as an item pack.
• Going Rogue Complete Collection's in-game bonuses were available for those who purchased the basic expansion.
• Party Pack
• Origins Pack
• Animal Pack
• Steampunk Pack

So the reasoning that "Just because people that bought the super packs couldn't choose, that people that want the costume separately shouldn't be able to either" is also faulty.

You aren't asking for a compromise, you are saying that people that don't want the consumables should have to pay for the consumables and not get them if they only want the costume set. This is also a load of garbage.

More to the point, I don't think that their store provider can do what you are suggesting.

Edit:
And for reference, here is a breakdown of the drop percentages:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...0RtVHJyQmZ1Znc

If they are being made "not available", then there is nothing to detract from the non-existent sales. This is also one of my objections to not putting the DVD collectors stuff out (and I have them).

Any proof?

It is a premium set just like the Carnival of Light set, the Circle of Thorns set, the Barbarian set, the Retro Sci-Fi set, the Steampunk set, or any of the other sets out there except for one aspect: all the rest are available either on a per piece basis or as a bundle. The only costumes that aren't bundled cost less than 400 points total.

Hah, not even Arcanaville would be willing to say exactly how much cash this generated. Especially with the stipends, bonus points, or paragon reward tokens out there.

And given some of the posts in this thread, I'm not alone in thinking this is a bad choice.

Cuts both ways.

Making the costume parts & pet available after the "print run" does nothing to change that.

Pot, meet Kettle.

For an 11 piece set? 400 points... exactly like the Carnival of Light set.

Given that Zwillinger on UStream said 15 packs on average for most players, I think that should be the baseline... Guess what? I got those 15 packs and not the complete set. Even if, as you say 24 packs, shouldn't everyone buying 24 packs automatically get the set, even if they don't roll them? I've heard up to 35 packs before some players got the complete set.

I disagree to the last, is someone has got a partial set, they should be able to buy just the remaining pieces.

For those that were curious: The meme name I got was "All Your Base", without any tricks at all.

Thanks for taking the time to show off my whole skit with the drones.

I haven't go that one yet in 10 runs.

My results so far:
Seems to be random, but Arcanaville thinks the game is trying to bribe me...

The numbers could very likely mean the opposite: That there is a minority of players spending hundreds of dollars on the packs. Or it might mean that every account bought 10 packs.

Until Paragon Studios publishes the numbers of unique accounts that bought super packs and average number of packs sold to accounts, all you (and everyone else here that isn't working for the company) are doing is speculating sales figures where you've only been given total "sales" (loose term, as it could include stipends and reward token redemption).

It doesn't matter how random it is or is not... The fact remains that there is no non-random method of buying these items, yet there is for most of the consumables in the packs.

Not asking that if pleases everyone. What is being asked for is that when a pack gets replaced, the items get a different distribution system. Not only that, but the next distribution system doesn't have to involve "just giving them away".

Will this please everyone? No. Will it please more customers than it ticks off? Yes.

Does Paragon Studios still get money (or eliminate stipend "debts")? Yes.

Not a binary situation. I would like to buy the costume parts. I'm telling the company I'd like to buy the costume parts. However I'm also telling them that I do NOT like the distribution method, and that is in turn COSTING them money. Every time I think I'd buy some points for something in the market, I think of the super packs and DO NOT BUY THE POINTS because of how I feel about the super packs. That is me not giving them money.

I didn't think that way about the previous costume packs (up to the Pocket D pack) the same as I do the super packs. That good will towards the company when lost, multiplied by a number of players (I don't think I'm alone on this, though I might be), should be scary.

Again, you don't go into business to annoy your potential customers and that is the only thing being accomplished here.

Being weighted doesn't take away the fact the the process is still random. Can a player "open" 100 packs and not get the complete costume set? Yes. Is is likely? No, not really. That doesn't change the fact that it is possible. Arcanaville pegged the odds of the Black Wolf at 1 in 420 packs. Does this mean that for every 420 packs sold that a wolf gets "picked" or that there can't be 420 players opening 1 pack getting the pet? No, as people have a fondness of saying, "random is random."

Programmers weight randomness all the time and you can see it in many places in this game. From the enhancement/salvage/etc. drop tables to tables at the end of trials to critter spawn groups are all weighted random tables. The difference is that super packs involve real money.

Never studied slot machines and video poker, huh? Predicted amount of "good stuff" doesn't even enter into the equation.

As you can see, the parallels exist.

Actually, no. The way you are suggesting for costume bits is actually significantly worse for players.

In that other game, any parts you've unlocked, you've unlocked account wide. In this game, that isn't possible with the existing code. Additionally, the developers do not have a means to remove an account-wide unlock. You can see what happens with the last part of your suggestion with ATOs, as they already act that way.

Overall though, I'd agree with CactusBrawler.

Realistically: 0-2.