Shift

!!!!!DISCLAIMER!!!!!!
Down at the bottom
!!!!!!DISCLAIMER!!!!!

Right, i tried to figure something out, and the result so devastates me, that im not sure if i was right. So please correct me (if im wrong).

This assumes a few things.
1: A Blaster fires his 2 secondairy toggledrop attacks, after which he fires (if not included in the toggledrops) a status effect attack that will drop all toggles if it hits.

2: the 2 attacks are 100-75-50 and 75-50 in % chance of dropping a 1st, 2nd (and 3rd) toggle.

3: Im not sure how toggledropping works, but im doing this the way that seems most logical to me. it eliminates the toggles after eachother, if the drop takes effect (e.g. the 'chance draw' results in 'positive' or '1')


Right, i run 7 toggles while PvPing namely:
1 Combat Jumping
2 Acrobatics
3 Tough
4 Dark Embrace
5 Obsidian Shield
6 Murky Cloud
7 Cloak of Fear
(8 Death Shroud, but not available to me in Warburg)

The clue to this is Obsidian Shield falling. without it, any status effect can take place (in blasters case mostly disorient and hold, which will go through Acros Mag1 RES to hold easily) and thus dropping ALL toggles, rendering you useless, and letting you die fast.

Blaster fires of his 1st attack.
100% chance that 1 toggle will drop. there is a (1/7) chance that that toggle is Obsidian Shield.

1.0*(1/7) = 0.14

75% chance that a 2nd toggled will drop.
(1/6) chance that that toggle is Obsidian Shield

0.75*(1/5) = 0.125

50% chance that 3rd toggle will drop
(1/5) chance that this toggle is Obsidian Shield

0.50*(1/5) = 0.1

Adding these up comes to 0.14 + 0.125 + 0.1 = 0.365
That is a 36.5% chance of rendering you useles. WITH 1 (or 2 in some cases) ATTACK(S).

but wait, he has a 2nd toggledropper.

So if after the 1st attack, Obsidian Shield isnt dropped, we go on.

So now we have 4 Toggles left.

2nd attack.

75% Chance of dropping a toggle.
(1/4) that this toggle is Obsidian Shield.
0.75*(1/4) = 0.1875

50% Chance of dropping another toggle.
(1/3) Chance that this toggle is Obsidian Shield
0.50*(1/3) = 0.167

Adding those 2 up to what we had 0.365 + 0.1875 + 0.167 = 0.7195.

yes ladies and gentleman, toggledropping and status effects allow a blaster with only 3 specific attack to hit you (because as /DA you are RES based and have no defence, and what little you have can be negated by Aim and Build UO) and have a 71.95% chance of rendering you useless and almost having a certain kill.

Right, now that wasnt fair, because the 1st attack doesnt drop 3 toggles all the time.

lets get a better look. again, assuming all 3 attacks hit (which isnt to hard to imagine)

After the 1st attack, you loose on avarage: 2.25 toggles (1.0 + 0.75 + 0.50)

That means that on avarage, you have (in my case) 4.75 toggles left, and not 4.

Right, lets set up a formula (this is prolly gonna look complicated)

A 1st attacks chance to put 1 toggle down. 100% being 1.0
B 1st attacks chance to put a 2nd toggle down. 100% being 1.0
C 1st attacks chance to put a 3rd toggle down. 100% being 1.0
D 2nd attacks chance to put 1 toggle down. 100% being 1.0
E 2nd attacks chance to put a 2nd toggle down. 100% being 1.0
n The number of toggles you have on.
X The chance of the 1st attack dropping obsidian shield.
m The number of toggles you started with - A+B+C (e.g. what on avarage you would have left after the 1st attack)
Y The chance of the 2nd attack dropping obsidian shield after the 1st one failed.
Z The chance of almost certain blaster victory over a /DA scrapper.


1st Attack: (A*(1/n))+(B*(1/(n-1)))+(C*(1/(n-2))) = X
2nd Attack: (D*(1/m))+(E*(1/(m-1))) = Y
X + Y = Z


So taking the figures i thought were correct:

A = 1.00 (im certain of this one tho)
B = 0.75
C = 0.50
D = 0.75
E = 0.50
n = 7
m = 4.75



1st Attack: (1.00*(1/7))+(0.75*(1/(7-1)))+(0.50*(1/(7-2))) = 0.3679
2nd Attack: (0.75*(1/4.75))+(0.50*(1/(4.75-1))) = 0.2912
0.3679 + 0.2912 = 0.6591



So there you have it: 0.6591 or almost 2/3rds of the time that the /DA scrapper with 7 toggles has NO chance of winning at all.

Isnt that just WRONG.

!!!!!DISCLAIMER!!!!!!
I'm a 17 year old boy who is still in school, this stuff may be utterly and completely wrong. Also, i've made quite a few assumptions, some of which imho are valid. Such as the way toggledropping attacks work and the blaster always hitting. Others werent THAT acceptible, but still acceptable enough for me to make this calculation. Again, this could be utter bullcrap, but this could also be the proof that toggledropping is overpowered. yes, i can take break frees, but i'd rather stack something usefull, and i dont like going to zone to get them every 20 blaster encounters. And if all of this proves to be wrong, that i still have a point i stand by: CoH is a statistics game, it looks nice, but it still is. 100% is a WRONG number in any statistics game. A /DA scrapper wont have any defence, and the 1/20 chance to miss isnt of importance, as that means you will hit 19 times more than you miss. Toggles are EVERYTHING for a /DA scrapper, losing 1 or 2 is managable (if they arent the wrong one) but losing more is fatal. If any of the Devs read this, please consider this, as /DA isnt the only set affected by this. Toggles are a big part of this game and the fun we have in it. Letting them be dropped with a near to certain 'possibility' it not fun.
!!!!!!DISCLAIMER!!!!!

Comment

Edit: Offcourse this is in some aspects worse for regen and invuln, and in some aspects less worse. /SR gets it lucky break and wins this time.

Regen + Invuln: Less toggles, and thus more chance of the status effect toggle dropping, but they have passives that (altho they are minor) keep them alive THAT much longer

/SR: Less toggles, AND passives. but wait, those are DEF, so even if the toggles get dropped, they still have a greater chance of surviving. Go SR!

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Just imagine the fun you'll be having in PvP when your toggles start getting dropped every other minute. Oh, the fun we have!!!

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I don't PvP much but isn't having lots of toggles in PvP an advantage as there is less chance of the all important mez protection being dropped? This is from my Inv tank with 6 toggles. However it is a very irritating advantage.

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Nope, because I have very few "frivolous" toggles. And, seeing as theres no audio cue to tell you when somethings gone down, you have to be constantly watching your status bar to see whats up and whats down.

I run the following toggles in PvP:

Focussed Accuracy
Combat Jumping
Acrobatics
Cloak of Darkness
Cloak of Fear
Dark Embrace
Murky Cloud
Osbidian Shield
Tough

Of those, I can probably lose Cloak of Darkness, Combat Jumping and Acrobatics before my build starts getting seriously hampered. Those three are fairly irreverent though, because a good toggle dropping Blaster can strip me of most of my shields very quickly, and depending on their damage types/secondary effects they only need to get one lucky toggle down to screw me over. Ever lost Murky Cloud just before an Energy Blapper punchs you? Not fun.

Thats /DA's major weakness. Once those toggles are down I have nothing to fall back on apart from my self heal, which isn't really great if I'm only in range of one person or its still recharging. Regen, Invuln and SR have all got some passive damage mitigation.

I have health.

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The real problem is, is that toggledrop attacks are:
1) 100% chance om some, which is baaaad mkay?
2) have status effects. that means, that once obsidian shield drops (which it seems to do more than.. say 'tough') you loose ALL your toggles.

so instead of being
100-75-50 for 1-2-3 drops (i think some blaster attacks are that), they turn into 100-75-66* for 1-2-ALL toggles, which is WAY too much imho

*numbers made up. the point is that with those chances it turns into an toggledrop ALL, NO im not calculating them, let a wizkid do that. wait, i am, i should be done in like half an hour :P.

to be continued.

e.g im gonna calculate what the chance is that ALL toggles drop (due to obsidian falling) with a 100-75-50 attack.

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and the nerf of CoF.

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That's a bug. I think all fear powers have been affected.

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I think hes on about the reduced accuracy or hit rate or what ever the last change was to CoF

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jup, not to mention that this was done because of the defender version of the power (same effect, other name really, different looks too i think), the scrapper version was fine the way it was, well, mr nerfbat thought otherwise.

right, after the overpowered toggledropping, and the endurance cost, and the crappy RES, and the nerf of CoF.

now they nerf the only thing we can be proud of, our status protection (next to our now not-so-superb psy RES), argueably the best in the game, gets nerfed to hell too.

So there you have it, PvP nerfed PvE, plain and easy.

status resists were never too good in pvp anyway, a single fire controller could hold me easily 1 on 1. so whats the problem? right, i know, statesman plays a controller!

any well built blaster can beat my DM/DA

It's just impossible to keep 8 toggles up, when you status resist toggles get dropped frequently with 100% toggledrop attacks (100% which idiot came up with that?) and you get mezzed.

Result? cannon fodder for the blaster.

8) Watch out for orbiting psychic heroes of DEATH! /em evil

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out damaged other scrappers on my team untill they went: "booohoo what is that your using!" and I go: "It's shadowmaul and it ownzorz!"

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Amen, nothing hurts like a Shadow Maul

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a shadow maul missing hurts more... to the caster

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Shift? Anyone?

So what have you decided for your i6 Builds?

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You call, i give

now don't go scaring yourself to death, this build works quite well.

Archetype: Scrapper
Primary Powers - Ranged : Dark Melee
Secondary Powers - Support : Dark Armor

01 : Dark Embrace endred(01) endred(3) damres(3) damres(5) damres(5)
01 : Smite acc(01) dam(7) dam(7) dam(9) endred(9) thtdbf(11)
02 : Shadow Maul acc(02) dam(11) dam(13) dam(13) endred(15) thtdbf(15)
04 : Murky Cloud endred(04) endred(17) damres(17) damres(19) damres(19)
06 : Hasten recred(06) recred(21) recred(21)
08 : Swift runspd(08)
10 : Combat Jumping jmp(10)
12 : Kick (Fight) acc(12) dam(23) dam(23)
14 : Super Speed runspd(14)
16 : Health hel(16) hel(25) hel(25)
18 : Dark Consumption acc(18) recred(27) recred(27) recred(29)
20 : Stamina endrec(20) endrec(29) endrec(31)
22 : Super Jump jmp(22)
24 : Acrobatics endred(24) endred(31)
26 : Tough endred(26) endred(31) damres(33) damres(33) damres(33)
28 : Obsidian Shield endred(28) endred(34) damres(34) damres(34) damres(36)
30 : Soul Drain acc(30) recred(36) recred(36) recred(37)
32 : Midnight Grasp acc(32) dam(37) dam(37) dam(39) endred(39) thtdbf(39)
35 : Dark Regeneration endred(35) endred(40)
38 : Cloak of Fear endred(38) endred(40) endred(40) thtdbf(42) thtdbf(42) thtdbf(42)
41 : Petrifying Gaze recred(41) recred(43) recred(43) hlddur(43) hlddur(45) hlddur(45)
44 : Dark Blast acc(44) dam(45) dam(46) dam(46) endred(46) thtdbf(48)
47 : Death Shroud acc(47) dam(48) dam(48) dam(50) endred(50) endred(50)
49 : Tenebrous Tentacles thtdbf(49)

Yes, thats right, Dark/Dark/Dark, feel free to pick BM, but with the cut to end, and ED, you can slot your armors for endrdx, like your attacks, and your attacks for acc. So i'd rather take a hold/immob/attack with thtdbf, instead of LBE and torrent.

Comments please.

Had a Merc/Traps Mastermind.

Shaft Mk II

Commando:
Alpha

Spec Ops:
Bravo
Charlie

Soldiers:
Delta
Echo

Suicide Medic:
Foxtrot

Deimos Shodan = x/DA iirc