Archie Gremlin
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Posts
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Joined
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Quote:What team size and difficulty settings were you using Beber?Originally Posted by Beber
3 more runs: 1134 enemies (918/216) -
I think I may have found a pattern in the data!
One of the things that's been bothering me is the wide variety of drop rates being reported. If we were looking at a single drop rate then plotting the rates for each run should give a bell shaped curve. It doesn't. What we actually get is a flat line between 0.5% and about 3%. This strongly suggests that we're getting different drop rates under different circumstances. (As we all suspected.)
I grouped our runs by team size. As most of our runs used sizes 0,1, 6 or 8 I created three groups. 0 and 1, 5 and 6 and 8. I excluded the runs I did on the wall in Cimerora as I don't know what team size applies in that case.
Code:Notice that the confidence intervals for the three groups don't overlap. I'm not sure how to test this for significance but it certainly looks significant from the confidence intervals.Size Defeats Recipes Drop Rate 95% Interval =================================== 8 4583 35 0.76% 0.53% - 1.06% 5,6 10915 201 1.84% 1.60% - 2.11% 0,1 5805 159 2.74% 2.33% - 3.19%
I've also noticed that these drop rates are quite close to 1/3, 2/3 and 100% of the old drop rate. (0.89%, 1.78% and 2.67% respectively.)
One note of caution here is that that team size correlates with other factors such as difficulty setting and map choice.
(Edited to get the team sizes in the right order. Doh!) -
Summary so far:-
434 recipes dropped by 24543 minion equivalents giving a drop rate of 1.77% with a standard error of 0.08 and a 95% confidence interval of between 1.61% and 1.94%.
1513 salvage dropped by 20021 minion equivalents giving a drop rate of 7.56% with a 95% confidence interval of between 7.19% and 7.93%. -
Quote:Which teams size and difficulty settings were you using?Originally Posted by EarthWyrm
Bosses, no AVs:
Am I right in thinking that you used team size 8 for your first two tests? (The one's with 2484 and 617 defeats) -
Hmm. Those drop rates for Minions and LTs are almost exactly the same as mine. I got:
Recipes:
Rank: Minion, Drops: 24, Rate: 2.21% (82.85% of expected)
Rank: LT, Drops: 21, Rate: 3.86% (72.43% of expected)
Salvage:
Rank: Minion, Drops: 87, Rate: 8.02% (100.23% of expected)
Rank: LT, Drops: 46, Rate: 8.46% (79.47% of expected) -
Quote:Is that just a tactful way of saying "Hey! Are you guys crazy?".Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison
I just want to /threadjack a little bit here to say "You people are very dedicated and have a lot more patience than I do."
(The answer's "yes", by the way.) -
I've had bosses off for all my tests.
This is the first time I've been on test and the first time I've copied this toon.
I've done all tests with lvl 50 brute. -
I've also built myself a log parser. This one uses the file that's saved to logs/game when you turn on chat logging.
I've been running the Demon cargo ship on difficulty 0, team size 6. I'm also _really_ sick of it now.
The results are 1,629 defeats including 544 lieutenants and no bosses. I had 43 recipes, 140 salvage and 16 enhancements.
This gives total drop rates of 1.98 for recipes and 7.73% for salvage. The salvage rate is totally consistent with the old drop rate. The recipes are harder to say. They're low, but the 95% confidence interval is exactly 2.66%. In other words, there's about a 5% chance that this is an unlucky run with the old drop rate. We really need another set of runs to be sure. Any volunteers?
I counted the minions' and lieutenants' drops. The minions dropped 24 recipes and 87 salvage and the lieutenants dropped 21 recipes and 46 salvage. This is about the right ratio. -
It's working OK for me on the EU test server. (I logged in and zoned to Galaxy from Atlas.)
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Quote:It's a red side mission from Tavish Bell called "Eliminate demons, secure cargo". It's full of Possessed Scientists!Originally Posted by macskull
Which map(s) are we looking at, specifically? I'm sure I'd be able to set aside some time to check the numbers here.
The map instance is CargoShip_Layout_05. (At least for me.) -
Quote:Both of your runs were consistent with the old drop rate of 2.66%. The run with fewer drops was closest to the expected value. Its rate was 2.40%. The +0/1 run had an unusually high drop rate of 3.75%. It was only just inside the 95% confidence interval.Originally Posted by Lakanna
That would probably be the runs set for team size 1, +0. They had a drop rate that looked very close to expected, and it dropped way off when I added a virtual teammate. My runs were done on test, though.
Given that these are the only runs that look like the old drop rate, I thought I'd try the same map with the same settings. (+0/2) As it happens, I also used a lvl 50 brute.
My results were 720 defeats (no LTs or bosses) with 21 pool A recipes and 70 pieces of salvage. This gave drop rates of 2.92% for recipes and 9.72% for salvage. These are consistent with the old drop rates.
This seems highly significant. We now have three runs on this map with no sign of a bug. As far as I can tell, these are the only runs we've had that weren't bugged. I'll try the map again tomorrow with larger spawns. Perhaps the bug only appears when we defeat LTs.
It would be interesting if someone else could try this map with a different archetype on +0/2 just to rule that out. It would also be interesting to see someone run a different map with different enemies on this setting. That would tell us whether it's the map or the difficulty setting that matters. -
Summary so far...
I've tabulated the posts in the thread that have sufficient data.
The total is 11039 defeats including 1766 LTs and a few bosses. The total number of recipe drops is 202.
This gives us an average drop rate of 1.59% with a 95% confidence interval of 1.37% to 1.81%. The 99.99% confidence interval is 1.18% to 2.05%. I calculated the confidence intervals using this page. We're expecting a drop rate of 2.66%.
Of the 10 runs that I tabulated, only Lakanna's looked like live runs. One of these was the only run to exceed the expected recipe drop rate. All 9 others were below the expected value.
I think we can safely conclude that the recipe drop rate is bugged.
We generated 658 items of salvage from 9298 minion equivalent defeats. (The equivalency is a little different for salvage according to the wiki.) This gives an average drop rate of 7.07% with 95% confidence intervals of 6.55% to 7.61%. This looks suspiciously low but I might just have got the maths wrong. -
Quote:We think that recipe drop rates are bugged. We're trying to get enough data together to work out what the new drop rate is and whether it applies in all situations.Originally Posted by JDub
If there has been a decrease to drop rate, but it hasn't been in any patch notes or mentioned by any Devs, isn't it likely a mistake that will be corrected? Just curious if you guys are under the impression they are trying to sneek something in under the radar.
Have you accounted for the increase in spawn size?Quote:Also, over the last three days I've played a Claws Brute from 1-25. I started out with missions spawned for 3 and worked my way up to 6 currently. I haven't done any tracking, but before I read this thread I thought drop rates had been increased. My recipes and salvage have been filling up so fast that I have to sell every 2-3 missions.
We'd love to see some hard data if you would like to post it. You can use Hero Stats to count defeats etc. -
My latest run on the Wall in Cimerora with lvl 50 Fire/Fire Brute on difficulty 0, team size 1.
796 defeats including 86 LTs and 2 bosses.
14 Pool A recipes and 68 salvage. -
I've just done a test run on the Wall in Cimerora. This is where I've been doing lots of runs in live as well.
I had 949 defeats including 95 LTs and 2 bosses. I received 8 recipes including one costume.
I was expecting 28 recipes with a 95% range of between 17 and 38. 8 is way too low.
FWIW I received 70 pieces of salvage which matches the drop rate I get in live. -
I've noticed a trend here. The recipe drop rates that are being reported are about 1/2 the old rate. (Take this with a big pinch of salt.)
I'm a little worried that people might be reporting runs with suspiciously low drop rates but not the ones with normal or unusually high rates.
If you do a test run, please post it here whatever the result is. Thanks. Don't forget to tell us how many mobs you defeated and at least roughly how many were lts or bosses. -
Quote:Just to confirm that...Originally Posted by LuxunS
From my admittedly small sample size it seems to back up what others have found that recipes are not dropping as readily as they should.
I just checked the stat's on this and I reckon that you would expect to get more than 9 recipes from this many defeats about 99% of the time. 9 is suspiciously low.
Likewise, I'd expect you to get less than 88 Vanguard merits about 94% of the time. This makes the merit drop figure high but not suspiciously so. -
As the others have said, minions are better than bosses for purples. The drop rate is around 1 in 1600 minions so you'll have to keep at it.
Good luck. -
Quote:Thanks Synapse.Originally Posted by EarthWyrm
Synapse just posted to the CB forums (about 20 minutes ago) to say that there have been no adjustments to recipe or salvage drop rates. He also said he's going to run around on the test server and test them out in-play.
I wonder if they can analyse the aggregate drop rate for all players from the server logs. This would give a much bigger sample size. -
Quote:I get different numbers here. I'd say the expected values are between 34 and 15. This makes your 17 recipes just within the expected range. However it's also consistent with a drop rate of about 1.2%.Originally Posted by EarthWyrm
Expecteds are around 57.5 and 24.67. So while I didn't get as many recipes as paragonwiki might suggest, it's (a) much higher than what I was getting on the other map and (b) probably within statistical tolerance.
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QR to EarthWyrm.
It looks like you're using the same analysis that I am.
The difference between your 25 drops and the expected value of 79 is over 6 standard deviations. In other words, there isn't any realistic chance that this is an unlucky roll of the dice. -
FWIW, I just played with some numbers to try to work out how many defeats are needed in order to establish whether the drop rate has changed or not.
If we assume that the old drop rate is 1 in 40 (2.33%) and the new rate is EarthWyrm's rate of 1 in 100 (1.00%) then we need more than 1500 defeats to tell them apart with 95% confidence. If the drop rate has changed less dramatically then we need more defeats to tell the difference.
In other words, EarthWyrm's runs of around 2000 defeats are significant. (In the statistical sense.)
The Maths
This is based on treating drops as a normal distribution and looking 2 standard deviations above and below the expected number of drops. If my maths and my assumptions are right (I wouldn't bet on that!) then 95% of the time, we can expect 1500 minion defeats to give 23 to 47 drops at the 2.33% rate and 7 to 23 at 1%.
I'm no statistician, so take this with a big pinch of salt. (Or if you are good at statistics then tell us whether this seems reasonable or not.) -
Some of you were asking for hard data on current drop rates. I believe the rate is about 1 recipe per 40 defeats. 80% of these recipes are whites (commons).
The rest of this post just gives the facts behind this figure.
TopDoc's data gives about 29 defeats per recipe. (18,116 defeats and 623 recipes.) He did his runs in the "Liberate TV" mission redside in March this year. TD estimated that 30% of his defeats were lieutenants.
I've recently (August) been working the wall in Cim. (Also redside) I've received 124 recipes in 4,471 for a rate of 36 defeats per recipe. About 10% of my defeats were LTs.
According to the Wiki, LTs drop twice as often as minions. Adjusting the kill rates to account for this gives 38 and 40 minions equivalents respectively. This is a good match to the Wiki rate of 2.33% which gives 1 recipe per 43 minions.
Hope this helps. -
This sounds about right to me.
I suspect that Lazy-Casual Users are more likely to list sell high. (At least for valuable drops.) They're not in a hurry and don't mind waiting for good prices. -
I think the stone tank will be painfully slow to level up solo.
Whichever toon you play, the most important factor will be how much time you spend in a team. You can't beat an 8 man team for XP.
Good luck.