Archie Gremlin
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Posts
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Joined
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End of day 2 total worth:- 951.5 million.
Yesterday went really well. I made about 490 million from trading alone. That's a lot more than I thought was possible from a week day. I have been trading in every spare moment in order to do it though. (Including getting up in the middle of the night!)
As for the windfall, it did give me an easy ride on the first day. My trading strategy needs about 200 million capital to hit full speed ahead so it probably saved me a day's trading. Just add a day to the total if you want to adjust for it.
Cash:- 539.7 million.
Recipes and IOs owned:- 191.0 million.
Salvage:- 30 million.
Bids:- 190.8 million.
Trades today: 40
Profit today: 490.6M
Average profit per trade: 12.2M -
End of day 1 total worth:- 442.1 million.
Cash:- 27.5 million.
Recipes and IOs owned:- 290.1 million.
Salvage:- 30 million.
Bids:- 94.5 million.
Getting the 200 million sale price definitely helped here. -
This is 2 hours in. I got a better start than I was expecting.
Someone, somewhere, is feeling rather sad at the moment. -
Day 0 - Blaise is penniless but determined.
Thanks for the good wishes.
I'm starting in a couple of minutes at 06:00 GMT. -
Hi EarthWyrm. Good to be back!
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Hi Folks,
I was really impressed by Fury Flechette's A Market Journal: From 0 to Millions. So I thought I'd have a go too!
I'm going to see how long it takes to hit the inf cap. (Double what FF made.) I'm going to do some farming but most of the inf is going to come from crafting. (No PvP and little or no flipping.)
If you like guessing games, then feel free to guess when I'll hit the cap. There won't be any prizes for the best guess, just a 'gratz' and a glow of satisfaction . It's probably easiest to express the time in elapsed days and hours. e.g. 13 days, 4 hours. This solves a whole load of issues with time zones!
To help you out, here are some details about what I'm going to do.
First off, I'm going to start on Monday morning. I'm in the UK and I work normal office hours.
Like FF I've got a job so I won't have more than a couple of hours a day to play during the week. I am taking Monday off both this week and next. I'm planning to play continuously over the weekends. (Unless my arms fall off!)
I'll start with no inf, tickets, merits, salvage, recipes or IOs; just a base full of empty salvage racks etc.
The toon is Blaise Corona who's a Fire/Kin. (Surprise, surprise.) He's got a full complement of trading slots, a farming build and a handy AE map.
I'll only use one toon and I won't get any help of any kind from anyone else.
I'll stop when my cash in hand hits the inf cap. I'll report my net worth at the end of each day. This will be an estimate but probably a good one. -
Quote:I've just released version 0.5.2 which includes includes a fix for this.Originally Posted by AgentMountaineer
Hmmmm....I wondered why I had so many failed heuristic rank checks. Looks like the inf rewards have been altered with the new patch. Fun times!
This version should work OK with your existing I16 log files. -
Quote:Maybe. Particularly if it's acceptable for the mob names and the output to remain in English. Otherwise, someone will have to translate for me.Originally Posted by DarkDestroyer
Any possibility to get it working with a german client?
Even changing language to english doesn't change the server messages. Mob names yes, "you defeated"-message no...
I'll need a sample log file with certain entries in it. Would you be prepared to carry out certain tasks for me and then send me the log file? It would be things like "Defeat a mob when you have debt." -
I did another run against council on +2x8 no bosses on my Fire/Fire brute. It seemed quite painful as my brute is a bit squishy really.
Results
Inf from defeats 8.2 million.
Inf from drops 2.3 million.
Total 10.5 million.
655 defeats including 516 minions and 139 lts. -
I spent 38 minutes on the wall in Cim. Sadly someone else turned up and knackered my run so I'll extrapolate to 1 hour. (The 38 min included the time needed to sell.)
Inf from defeats 6.12 million.
Inf from drops 3.42 million.
Total 9.54 million.
1017 defeats, 903 minions, 107 LTs and 7 bosses.
I was quite please with my run... until I read the thread. Clearly I can do much better.
P.S. I'd be really grateful if any of you would me the chatlogs you generate while doing this. It'll help pin down the purple and pool C/D drop rates. -
Quote:I'm tracking drop rates in this thread.Originally Posted by eryq2
Let us know how drops are. Since 16 ive only gotten 1 purp. And today was the worst. I ran a BM farm of 52's with my 2 accounts. On both runs i got 1, one, uno invention drop. Yes, that's including both toons. It seems 16 didn't increase any rates. At least on my accounts. lol.
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Quote:I was kind of expecting that.Originally Posted by AgentMountaineer
Hmmmm....I wondered why I had so many failed heuristic rank checks. Looks like the inf rewards have been altered with the new patch. Fun times!
I'll aim to get a new release out by the end of the weekend. -
Quote:As Organica as suggested, you probably need to change your pricing strategy.
Not having worked in a complete strategy yet, I would view the current market for what the last five bids where for that item and maybe either match that bid or go higher when selling. Currently, I have 15 of my 16 slots full awaiting buyers. Some Salvage and some Enhancements. So, far, nothing has moved yet. I have checked the going rate and I am right in the ballpark for what I am asking.
My rule of thumb is to set the list price at 70% of the price I want to sell at or just above an obvious round number below the target price. The important point is to list below the price you want to receive.
For example, if the item has been selling for 4,5 or 6 million all week then I'll probably aim to sell at 5 mill. 4 mill is too low and aiming for 6 mill is too likely to leave me holding the baby if the market heads down. The nearest "round number" below 5 mill is 4 mill so I'll list at 4,100,000 or something like that.
If you do this, then you'll probably sell your item in the next 5!
Be warned that prices wash up and down all the time. There are also sudden spikes and odd semi-permanent price changes to look out for.
If you're going to trade stuff which is expensive relative to the amount of inf you hold, then I recommend watching the price for a week before trading. This'll give you a feel for the niche before diving in. -
Quote:Yes please. I'll use them to test the theory that recipes aren't allocated fairly to team members.Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
I haven't been able to send any files. I've been doing a lot of dual boxing on the same PC. Will those chat logs be usable? I was running level 50 missions on a level 50 and 30ish defender.
I can also use all logs by lvl 50 toons to help pin down the purple drop rate whether teamed or solo. -
Nice idea Cat. I'll do a run some time this week on my Fire/Fire brute. (Might need to wait 'til the weekend though.)
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This table shows what proportion of Pool A recipes end up as each colour. It's based on all the level 50 logs so far. (About 30,000 defeats.)
Code:Purples make up about 1 in 100 recipes. This means that the absolute drop rate is somewhere between 1 in 9600 and 1 in 2500 minions.Drops Chance 95% Interval ------------------------------------ Total 1244 Common 948 76.21% 73.74%-78.55% Uncommon 238 19.13% 16.98%-21.43% Rare 48 3.86% 2.86%-5.08% Very Rare 10 0.80% 0.39%-1.47% -
Quote:You'll like the new version then. It does just what you want.Originally Posted by Leandro
It's still reporting them wrong for the purposes of my post (boss-only rates). I probably should have been more clear on that.
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I've just release a new version of DropStats. (Version 0.5.1)
The only changes are:- Now displays 95% confidence interval for drop rates in the "Range" column.
- Now displays drop rates for minions, lieutenants and bosses as well as the overall drop rate for Pool A and Salvage.
The drop rate table now looks like this:
Code:I've also fixed a couple of bugsPool Drop Rate Range Drops Expected Mobs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pool A 3.13% 2.22%-4.27% 38 23-45 1,214 min. equiv. minion 3.19% 2.20%-4.45% 33 19-39 1,035 minions lieutenant 6.58% 2.17%-14.69% 5 2-10 76 LTs & snprs Salvage 8.42% 6.89%-10.16% 98 77-113 1,164 min. equiv. minion 8.12% 6.53%-9.95% 84 67-101 1,035 minions lieutenant 17.11% 9.43%-27.47% 13 4-15 76 LTs & snprs boss 11.11% 0.28%-48.25% 1 1-5 9 bosses & EBs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- fixed a crash that happened if the command line contained a dir option with a value that was both in quotes and ended with a /. e.g. -dir "c:/test/"
- fixed bug that caused -run to fail if chat channel has a color definition
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Here's a list of the drops by rarity from the logs so far.
Code:Please note that Tier 3 inspirations don't drop from minions and LTs so can't be compared directly to Tier 1 and Tier 2.Drops Total Common Uncommon Rare Very Rare ---------------------------------------------------- Pool A 791 600 152 30 9 Salvage 2,164 1,684 395 85 Inspirations 8,510 5,683 2,745 82 ----------------------------------------------------
I'll convert this into probabilities and confidence intervals when I have time. -
Quote:Over the years, I've come to the conclusion that most of us have very poor intuition when it comes to random events. We seem prey to several recurring problems.Originally Posted by Leandro
I'll make another post out of my raw data, this one in order to show just how streaky the rare drops can be.
The first is that we tend to spot patterns in data that don't really exist. e.g. he's luckier than me or I get better drops from Council.
The other is that we expect random events to be more evenly spread than they are. Consequently, we tend to be surprised by how streaky and how unfair random events can be.
Thanks for publishing that Leandro, it's very interesting.
P.S. I have no idea whether Leandro's streaks are what we'd expect or not. -
Quote:Be warned that there may well be a problem with that figure. It's possible that 1 of the 3 didn't actually drop from a mob. It might have been bought with AE tickets or something.Originally Posted by BlackBellatrix
The drop rates for Pool Cs off of bosses are higher than I expected. Might have to farm with bosses enabled.
I could really do with lots more data on bosses. Anyone fancy farming them? -
I've got some results for the basic drop rates. The headline is that salvage rates are as expected but Pool A drop rates are a little low. I've also got some initial values for Pool E (costume pieces) and Pool C/D random rares. (AKA boss rares.)
Whilst the Pool A minion and boss rates are compatible with the wiki values, lieutenants are significantly low. (4.57% instead of 5.33%). Don't forget that there's around a 1 in 20 chance that this result is a quirk of the RNG rather than a real effect.
Code:This analysis only included logs where the sender said that their recipes and salvage never filled up. Roughly half the defeats were by players with the no-bosses option. I did two runs of Drop Stats. The first analysed the logs that had bosses and the second analysed the rest. I then merged the results by hand to get the table above.Pool Wiki Value Actual Range Drops Defeats ====================================================================== Pool A 2.67% 2.44% 2.24%-2.66% 526 21534 min. equiv. minion 2.67% 2.54% 2.26%-2.84% 296 11669 minions lieutenant 5.33% 4.57% 3.95%-5.25% 188 4118 LTs & snprs boss 8.00% 7.73% 5.56%-10.31% 42 543 bosses & EBs Salvage 8.00% 8.06% 7.67%-8.45% 1518 18842 min. equiv. minion 8.00% 7.94% 7.46%-8.45% 927 11669 minions lieutenant 10.64% 10.83% 9.90%-11.82% 446 4118 LTs & snprs boss 25.00% 26.70% 23.03%-30.64% 145 543 bosses & EBs Pool E ? 0.03% 0.01%-0.09% 4 11669 minions Pool C/D ? 0.55% 0.11%-1.61% 3 543 bosses & EBs
Thanks to @ignitros, AgentMountaineer, Catwhoorg, Enigma Black, Firespray, Geoff_NA and Leandro for the log files. -
Quote:At this rate, I'll probably be collecting data for several weeks or even several months. All contributions will be gratefully accepted for the foreseeable future.Originally Posted by EnigmaBlack
How much longer are you going to be collecting stats? This Double XP weekend has me doing a lot of teaming. If anything I will get back to collecting data on Monday.
The hardest thing to pin down will be the drop rates for rare boss drops, purples, costume pieces etc. Team play and low level play are fine for this as I can just compare the total number of recipes for each colour. Of course, the low level stuff won't help with the purple rate but it will help with everything else.
I need lots more data to really pin this down. I currently have about 20,000 defeats. 200,000 would be nice.
Keep 'em coming. Thanks. -
FWIW I develop and test DropStats on Vista 64. I login with a user account rather than an administrator account. I actually find Vista less irritating that way.
The only Vista specific issue that I'm aware of with DropStats is that you can't install ActiveState PERL unless you're logged in with an administrator account. Once you've installed PERL, you can swap back to your normal account. -
Quote:Out of curiousity, I ran the program you linked to with some different drop rates. The results are:Originally Posted by Geoff_NA
I ran the stats below assuming 1 drops per 2000 minion equivs (the rate I heard was around 1500-2000 minions). The odds of me not getting one yet are 1% or less.
As Grouchybeast says, we don't know what the purple drop rate is. I think that your streak suggests that 1:2000 is too optimistic rather than suggesting that something's broken.Code:Drop Rate Chance of 0 Purples 1:2000 1.0% 1:2500 2.5% 1:3000 4.8% 1:4000 10.0% 1:5000 15.9%
I'm currently collecting chat logs in an attempt to pin down the purple drop rate. (Amongst other things.) I'd be most grateful if anyone of you would like to contribute. Please see this thread for details.