City of Heroes: Live Forum Archive

enhancment converter not being very random :(

Hopeling

By Hopeling,
Posted on: 2012-06-05 14:19 in Player Questions

 

Posted

hi all, so has this happened to any of you...i used an enhancment converter on a AT enhancement...the AT enhancement it converted it to i didnt want so i converted again and it returned it to the enhancement i started with ! lol, this happened 3 times within 2 days wasting 6 enhancement converters. i wonder if the random roll of enhancement converters isnt being random enough...hmmm.

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by StarGeek View Post
Random is Random.

A previous post of mine on the subject.
lol, random is the same i guess :b

RED CAP DAGGERS: if you want them red side on infinity, send a pm i have the mission to get them for dual blades.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by random_person View Post
lol, random is the same i guess :b
Sometimes, yes. There's a 1 in 78 chance of getting back the same ATO you started with after two conversions. Depending on just how many conversions you did over those 2 days, having this happen 3 times falls somewhere between "mildly unlikely" and "more likely than not".

 

Posted

I do find a certain ironic amusement in random_person having an imperfect understanding of the word 'random' though.

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justaris View Post
I do find a certain ironic amusement in random_person having an imperfect understanding of the word 'random' though.
Human intuition is pretty bad when it comes to probability. Really, amazingly, spectacularly awful.

Also, remember that we call things "unlikely" because they happen rarely, but do still happen. If they never happened, we'd call them "impossible". Getting some weird fluke of luck with converters is unlikely, but such flukes SHOULD and MUST happen if the RNG is working properly. The absence of unlikely events would be a far stronger indictment of the RNG than their presence.

Or, y'know, properly collecting and analyzing actual data can work too. Going from gut feeling on probability gets back to the "spectacularly bad" problem.